FREE DAILY POST: 14/09/16 (COMPLETE)

Complete…Tips for Kerry National, Sprint ‘tip’ and quite a bit of other stuff, including Kelso notes and a Shortlist

Plenty going on today including Tips in the 4.10 Listowel, Sprint Tip in 4.40 Beverley, a shortlist of interest, some notes from Kelso and a few other bits and pieces. Probably too much but it is what it is. Very soon there won’t be any sprint handicaps etc. 

 

 

TIPS

4.10 Listowel

Killer Crow – 1 point EW – 9/1 (PP/Lad) 17/2 (bet365) 8/1 (gen) (all 4 places bar SkyB, 5 places) FELL

Shesaportrait – 1 point EW – UP/PU 28/1 (PP, BetfS,Betway) 25/1 (general- worth SkyB 5 places maybe if you can,declared 4 places for blog)

*That can only be described as the worst chase I have watched I think. Shesaportrait was meant to be up there but planted herself and that was that. Game over. Killer Crow either ran into trouble or fell. I couldn’t have the winner personally so need to look at that. The second was on the stats profile of three – just back them all maybe. I have said that before. He was 33s, 40/1 this morning. Slightly put off by his poor record LH in general and worried about stamina. Thankfully he emptied a bit otherwise misery would have been too much. That was truly awful. 

 

Having looked at the trends as below I have ignored them when analysing this and have approached it like I would do with a normal 3m handicap chase. Having gone through it in that way my pins still came down on these two, who happen to also be prominent in the trends/stats shortlist. Hopefully that is a good sign…

Killer Crow… I can’t quite remember if I tipped this one in the Irish National or not but something is telling me that I may have done. Hopefully some compensation awaits here. Arguably he has been a bit underwhelming over fences but then again he has been highly tried in competitive big field chases. That is some indication as to what connections think of him. He would have had a hard race at Fairyhouse and he looks to really like a swamp. 2/3,3 places all runs on Heavy to date. That hard race/lively going/not a test of stamina…may be the reasons for those lackluster runs that followed. Albeit he ran ‘ok’ at Galway. The rest pattern and run over hurdles LTO suggests that this may have been the plan post Fairyhouse. He had a 90 day break before that Galway run, and a decent run over hurdles LTO to further sharpen him up. At least that showed some return to form. Now, he is yet to prove he stays 3m, his wins at slightly shorter. But the fact he ran at Fairyhouse indicates they think he is a stayer and he has a couple of OK runs over extreme distances which add to confidence. Without those two runs I would be a bit more concerned. 24f on Heavy may be ideal for him. 9/1 seems fair I think and I hope he is thereabouts. His liking for Heavy should ensure he is up there in the mix I think.

Shesaportrait… well a bit more of a stab but having pondered I couldn’t let her go off at this price, EW. A few things… her novice chase form was ok and as with a lot of horses in Ireland in such races had to make do with chasing home some Mullins hotpots. She was second to Vroum Vroum Mag in one of those races. She raced in this race last year where she plugged on for 5th. Take a look at those horses that finished ahead of her. IF only we/I had followed that form into 2016 – we would have had the winner of both The Grand National, and the Irish Grand National. She had four decent stayers ahead of her there who liked the mud and clearly had more class. I am unsure whether there are as many/any such types in the race this year. If she completes, based on that run in this last year, I would hope she could grab a place in the top 4 at worse. She races prominently which helps around here and the heavy seems fine. There is a stamina question but she has yet to prove she doesn’t stay it at least. And, she is still lightly races for her age. Now, this also looks like the plan but not necessarily deliberately. Her run LTO was her first since that Listowel run and I assume something went amiss in the meantime. But, she returned over novice hurdles LTO and that must have been a ‘potter around, blow away the cobwebs’ jobby. You would expect she will come on for it and from some point in the last year this will have been decided as the plan. She could not be ‘hard fit’ which may be necessary here, on the flip side she could be fresh enough with loads of energy having not had many races. ALL of my niggles and doubts, including whether she has the class, are built into the price and worth a punt for me.

Of the rest…well I have a notepad full of why anything else can’t win. I won’t go through them all but if neither of the two above win will say why I didn’t fancy them. Many in here have serious ground questions for me- a lot have proved they don’t really handle it. Some of them may get away with it because they are classy but I am not sure. Many also have stamina doubts and/or questions. A few look like 2m/2m4f horses, and haven’t even run well over 2m5f+ which the two above have done. The likes of Lord Scoundrel have a ground Q (0/5,1p heavy) and he is 0/8,4p LH, has also gone up 10lb effectively but is clearly in form. Big weights may struggle in this ground also and they usually don’t hang about in this race either. First Lieutenant is getting on a bit and there wasn’t enough to tempt me. But anything trained by Mouse is worthy of a second glance. (that is permanently lodged in my mind now!) Gas Line Boy is interesting for Williams but I don’t like the break and I am unsure whether Heavy is ideal. He won’t get an easy lead either and there are a few too many URs and PUs in his profile for me. He could go well though. Folsom Blue is up there in the market but has a long break to overcome which historically isn’t a good thing in this. He has had some tough races also, is 0/13,3 p OR 131+, 0/5, 1p going Left Handed. Happy to overlook at 6s. Phils Magic was interesting just because he is in the could be anything category. But, he has yet to win a chase and while his mark could be hidden, this is a tough race for a 6yo without chase wins to their name. All the rest have plenty of questions for me also. A single figure price on Ballycasey seems short given his big weight, questions over his stamina in a test like this and Mullins poor record in the race. He is one though where class may take him into it.

Anyway, I could go on. I am more than happy with these selections and expect them both to give up good runs for our money. 1st and 2nd will do 🙂

Pace…There could be enough on here with a few leaders/plenty of pace pushers. These two will hopefully be in the front third. I fear Elliot’s may be further back which isn’t good around here. But then again, on heavy, if they go quick then being more patient may be what is required. But, you need luck in terms of what happens in front of you.

That will do. Good luck. We will need it.

***

Kerry National…

I have looked at some stats which you can all read HERE>>>

Now to see what stands out on those…

Well if we look at:-

  • Top 8 LTO
  • Ran 1-60 days ago
  • Carried 11-3 or less
  • 1+ run at the track previously
  • 1-6 career wins

I think that leaves a shortlist of: Killer Crow / Shesaportrait / Rightville Boy / Kings Warf (reserve) / As De Pique (reserve)

 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Well there is plenty going on already and I am minded to not add to the number of horses on these pages. BUT, I have started keeping an eye on those horses on Geegeez racecards that have a massive speed figure compared to the next best, or a bit one at any rate. Another ‘way in’ i suppose that looks at the horses form first, before looking at any other back-up stats. So, maybe just keep a watching brief in these but they are there for you to use as you please as always…

  • 2.50 Yarmouth – Princess Momoka– 9/4 (UP 4/1…market told story on that one)- a monster figure in here which indicates that 9/4 could be massive come the winning post if she wins like an evens shot or something. Trainer is in form, he has decent handicap debut stats and with those returning 60+ days off. Solid track form also. 2/10,5 places here in last year. May be a bit short for me personally but interested to see if this speed figure (92, next best 66) is a true reflection of ability and there will be more to come at some point. Winners have come from her maidens also.
  • 4.05 Bev – Jaarih – 4/1… (UP, upset pre race,drifted 7s,walked home) again a big speed fig is way in here (92, 80 next best). He has been running well lately and should get a good toe into this race. Trainer has a very good record with those returning within 7 days (21/88,33p, some good profits too) and is 6/20,9 places with jockey in all flat races. Interesting. NOTE…Pensax Lad just beat him LTO and he runs in the 2.05 Sandown…he has a horrible draw though but will watch his race with interest.
  • 4.25 Sand- Nicarra – 4/1, 7/2… (UP, 3rd) Speed rating of 85, plays next best 73. She won LTO and trainer is 12/58, 22 places with such types. He is 10/53, 24 p at track all runners, 5/17, 8 places in C4 handicaps at the course also. Figures suggest her LTO win is the best in this field and she should be up there, leading or tracking the pace. It should be soundly run. Does look open if you just looked at all the runners form though, many including this one open to further improvement.
  • 5.00 Sand – Bed Rock… (2nd) well Nick has given this one a good write up below…5/1…Speed rating 80 plays next best 68. Trainer is in red hot form, does well at track,form of last race working out- pace looks interesting. Could well dictate or in any case be in the right place, close to the pace. There is a stamina Q but he is developing no doubt and should be getting stronger with each passing month. Another interesting one.

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Pam Sly: 4.25 Sand – Ghinia (any odds) UP

Varian fillies/mares: 3.25 Yarm – Nezwaah (25/1<) 2nd 7/1

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER BETS 

3.30 Bev: Welford (any odds) UP

 

***

I was planning to record a couple of videos on all things Kelso but it appears that my recording equipment has broken so I will have to save that for another day. However…

 

JUMPS NOTES 

KELSO: FREE TRAINER TRACK PROFILE HERE>>>

These notes throw up the following horses. You can use these as you please, cross referencing with the stats. Some you may use as a starting point before looking at the race/horse in more depth.  You may think some of the stats are solid and will just back them on that basis. Some of the stats looks stronger than others. I have yet to go through the horses in any depth but the stats, bases on recent trainer records, throw up…

(they have had 5mm of rain overnight and it is overcast at the moment. It may be worth waiting until later in the day to ensure a bit more certainty as to the going. A few of those below usually like a sound surface, which it may still be on the whole. Officially now good, good to soft in places) 

4.50 – Up And Go 2nd 9/1>11/4 (35pr4) (McCain overall hncp stats + handicap chasers  strong, +1-2 runs this season)

5.25 –

  • Danceintothelight (2nd) (McCain, overall stats. Better with hncp chasers but has hurdle winners)
  • Touch of Steel (UP,all form on good/firm) (trainer hncp hurdles, trainer/jockey combo, age) (Ewart in my Sept/Oct notes as a trainer who does well with handicappers this time of year,or has done)
  • Fire Rock UP 12/1>20/1(trainer hncp hurdle debut, 0 runs 90 days)
  • Theatre Act – UP 8s (Grant, all handicaps stats, better in chases but has hurdle winners)

 

6.00 – Gurkha Brave UP (good/soft,albeit ground fine for horse) (trainer on Good ground here- yet to check weather forecast)

6.30 –

-Mardale (trainer overall hncp stats) UP 5/2

-Lyric Street (trainer overall stats, as above better with chasers etc) UP 5/1

7.00 – Temple Man (Jefferson’s record in NHF races) UP 6/5

***

Hopefully a few of those run well. I have yet to work out which ones, if any, I will back based on the stats alone and/or horses suitability to the race conditions. I am more wary at this time of year before form settles down etc.

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

4.40 Beverley

Lydia’s Place – 1 point EW – 12/1 (bet365/BV/WH) (UP 6/1. 4th, lost a shoe)

I was all done for the evening but a regular tweeter who can pick a sprint handicapper or two got in touch and said he was having a ‘max bet’ on Lydia’s Place. That name rang a bell and I would no doubt have looked in the morning – she is in the tracker- but the price may have gone by then.

I can’t let this one go off at 12s and to a certain point the oppo are a bit irrelevant at the price I think. One of these days I will ‘tip’ a horse that was a previous loser.

Richard Guest was interviewed on RUK earlier at Thirsk where he had a winner. His yard has been struck down with a virus in recent weeks apparently but they are showing signs of more life recently. (his words) He has been quiet on the runners front and that virus may well explain the rather lackluster run LTO and other runs maybe. IF that was the cause, and IF she is over it- she is no 12/1 shot here. If she still has issues and/or is just out of form that is 2 more points loaned back to the bookies.

I backed her at Musselburgh where she ran well enough in 3rd. Economic Crisis won that race and it was a decent enough little contest. She hasn’t done much since then but the virus may explain it.

She drops in class here which caught the eye. She is a CD winner and has won off 87. She runs off 75 here. She is getting well handicapped and Beasley is back on for the first time since that Musselburgh run. The trainer does well here – 6/16, 7 places in the last year alone. He is 1/5, 1 place in the last 14 days and has only had 9 runners in the last month for the reasons described.

Pace is the final positive. Not many if any ever make the running in this but she can and Beasley does ride from the front very well from memory. I really hope he sends her to the front and can get across to the rail. In any case she should be prominent.

So, I think there are positives at the price. It is all about what shape she is in but a repeat of that Muss run should see her right in the mix here. It will all be about when the jockey pushes the button and whether anything is there.

Of the rest…well nothing at the shorter end would tempt me in given the inconsistency amongst this lot. Acclaim The Nation is lightly raced and probably looks the most interesting.

That is all for this evening.

 

SYSTEMS TEST 

OTT : 2.25 Bev – Moll Anthony (16/1<) NR

 

***

Post complete, you will be relived to read!

Good Luck with any bets you place today,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Evening all. Been busy lately so just not had the time or energy to do the write ups although in fairness I seem to be going through a pattern of identifying the winner, deciding it’s too short and picking something else. Case in point were Captain Colby on Saturday and Mythmaker today (I was on Twin Appeal like you Josh).

    Two interesting things which I thought would be good for discussion here and everyone’s thoughts welcome.

    1) Does anyone have any thoughts or strategies on Classified races? (those class 3 non-handicaps) I always have avoided them like a plague but there must be a way of trying to play them.

    2) What do you guys make of Tom George appointing Adrian Heskin as his No 1 for next season. Seems really harsh on Paddy Brennan who I thought was definitely one of the best out there particularly over fences.

    No time for write ups tonight but I do I am gluten for more Barron punishment and have gone for Robot Boy in the 17:05 at Yarmouth.

    1. Good to hear from you Nick…ah you are suffering from the same affliction as me! Always tough when they win like that but at least we are identifying them haha. Given jockey stats/draw stats 5s did feel short and I don’t think I would have come to a different conclusion this morning. He wasn’t as stand out as Pipers Note say, which was a clanger for me, not for you. 7s SP was hurtful as was watching him dart out and nothing on his inside keeping him wide! Suspect we will get out money back on Twin Appeal at some point. Looks like trying to get his mark down before he goes back up to 7f on softened ground.

      Tom George… Yep a very interesting one. I don’t know how old Brennan is but I can see why George would look to the future etc and secure the services of a talented, potential rising strat. You imagine he will be around every day to ride the work etc etc. Brennan will still get the odd ride no doubt but doubt my Tom George micro angle will be very busy!

      Brennan- I wonder if he will get more opportunities with team Tizzard. Scu rides a few for certain owners, as does Brendan Powell Jr but they don’t have a stable jockey.

      1. Yeah you’re probably right on Twin Appeal. Annoyingly they are not running the 5:05 at Yarmouth given the “wet patch” since the 7s I had on Robot Boy were looking decent a few hours later. Tomorrow does look like a cracking day of racing even if you have stolen my thunder on Lydia’s Place which I agree looks like a cracking bet tomorrow. I think you’ve said just about everything although I would just underline that 6/16 statline since we are not talking about a trainer who has a huge number of winners. Thats 6/16 here and 15/284 everywhere else in the last 12 months. He is also 3/10, 5 places when combining with Beasley in handicaps here including 2/5 this year. Finally the horse has raced agianst 3 of her 7 opponents and beaten all 3 of them and re-opposes all on equal or better weights than before.

        Moving on to Sandown 17:00 I think Bedrock has a cracking chance tomorrow. Form of his 2nd LTO has worked over very well with the runaway winner destroying the Jack Berry House stakes field (class 2) off an 8 lbs higher mark at the Ebor meeting. The 3rd and 5th have also won since. Haggas is still in amazing form having won 21 out of his last 50 races (34 places) in the past 15 days. He is 4/15, 6 places in Sandown handicaps in the past 2 years and 2/6, 4 places with Cosgrove on board. His front running style should suit Sandown down to a tee and hopefully he will lead from pillar to post.

        The 15:25 at Yarmouth looks to be a cracking race from a betting perspective (assuming it stays at 8 runners). It was a crying shame that So Mi Dar was injured during the spring since I think she would have given Minding a run for her money in the Oaks however considering her inury problems and the fact she hasnt had a run for 4 months she has to be taken on at 6/5 even if come 15:30 that may have looked like value. The second favourite Arabian Queen hasnt quite been as good this year and probably would have preferred some cut in the ground even if this is a step down in class and the track is likely to suit her front running style. That and the fact that Elsworth hasnt been firing them in lately the 7/2 looked a little short also. That leaves 6 decently priced runners. The one I want to take them on with is Hugo Palmer’s We Are Ninety. Back into listed company and more importantly to 1m2f she looks overpriced at 14/1 since its clear she didnt quite stay the 1m4f even if she wasnt disgraced at Ascot in a Group 2. She is getting 4lbs and 3lbs respectively from the two above as well. I cant understand why Nezwaah is half the price when she beat her by 1.5 lengths earlier this season. Hugo Palmer seems to be permanantly in form and has a great record combining with Crowley (16/47, 29 places) who we know is riding as well as anyone at the moment. Palmer is also 2/4, 3 places in non-handicaps at Yarmouth this year. Jim Crowly has been on board for both her wins this season.

        Last but not least I have to have a go on Touch of Steel. This is largely a colation of your stats although have used the last 2 years but as highlighted by your stats Ewart is 5/9 in handicap hurdles in the past 2 years. That imporves to 4/5 with Ewart on board. He is 7/17, 10 places with 7/8 year olds. Plus he is 9/22, 11 places in September/October. The horse is 2/2 in handicap hurdles at the track. He is 3/5, 4 places in class 5 handicaps hurdles. He is only 3lbs above his last winning weight. He won this race last year when first time blinkers had a positive effect. Tomorrow the trainer applies a first time Visor which should hopefully eek out the neccessary improvement.

        1. Probably way too much tomorrow but have spent the last hour and a half looking at the Kerry National for the last 19 years stas perspective and think it should be between Killer Crow and Shesaportrait. Couple of key ones in addition to yours:
          16/19 were aged 7 to 9
          6 of the last 9 winners had a prep run over hurdles (overall they are 8/65, 18 places +46)

          1. Wrath of Titans for me. Will love the distance and ground, nice prep over hurdles. Jockey is a question mark in this type of race but important to have a claimer on board given position in handicap.

          2. – i thought jockey booking was odd- would like to think if connections were hopeful someone else would be on. Only her 7th ride I think over fences, one place so far, includes hunter chases. A big ask really but I may be left with egg on my face. I had stamina questions for him on Heavy. His best form is over shorter and on a sounder surface. For me he has yet to prove he stays, or that he relished the mud. But, arguably he has yet to prove he doesn’t and maybe those two new things combined are just what he wants! There was enough there for me to leave him personally but I am wrong most of the time and I may well be again! good luck.

  2. I was staggered about the Tom George decision on a couple of counts. Firstly, George/Brennan as a partnership had a stellar season last year, George has any number of improving horses and horses approaching or at peak, the vast majority of those have been ridden/schooled by Brennan. If you look at Brennan whilst appreciating he is not getting any younger, his career is hardly on the wane.

    Now lets turn to Heskin who has little or no experience of UK tracks. Is he seriously going to ride the George horses any better than Brennan in the next 12-18 months, particularly the ones that need schooling and educating, in the midweek fixtures? He may be a decent jockey in Ireland but the races he has scored winners in over there, the “bread and butter races” tend to lack the depth of UK races and they just “go off like the clappers in Ireland” survival of the fittest and in the UK there is a lot more tactical riding and dependence on pace and fractions.

    I can understand George wanting to look to the medium/long term but would argue that there are emerging riders in the UK equally as talented as Heskin with far more knowledge to hit the ground running – Brooke; Bannister; Noonan and others quickly come to mind.

    A strange decision in my humble opinion and will be interesting to see just how many Brennan still gets the ride on, especially at the gaffe tracks early in the week. Has there been a falling out that we are not party to????

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