FREE DAILY POST: 13/09/16 (COMPLETE)

Not too much to cheer on Monday bar a winner for the James Fanshawe micro angle. A few 3rds and 4th but bar the Henderson horse none of them ever looked like winning in the final stages. Onto Tuesday…

TIPS

None.

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Shortlist…

• 7.15 Carlisle: Chiron 25/1… (UP, still running, 80/1) Dalgleish is 4/11, 4 places here with his handicap debutants which is the ‘way in’ here. This one takes quite a step up in trip which should help and may want even further. The trainer/jockey were responsible for a 50/1 winner the other day at Hamilton. The trainer is in form – 10/41,15 places in the last 14 days as well. And, that is it really. On paper he really will need to improve for the step up and handicap debut and the market may, or may not, guide. I couldn’t leave him on my notepad at these odds. He could win. He could be out-paced, tailed off, he could be useless. Worth tracking maybe as the trainer may switch him back to jumps again at some point. Lightly raced for his age. 
• 4.15 Carlisle: Mary Beale 6/1… (UP) Johnston is 3/9, 5 places with handicap debutants here. He is 13/62, 22 places with Fanning in handicaps at the track. That is it really. With these types you are expecting they improve for handicap debut and as such any previous form is hard to weigh up. This one has been running ok. Soft ground would be an unknown – the trainer always bangs on that his ‘need firm ground!’. I should look at the breeding…
• 6.15 Carlisle: Oasis Moon 6/1… (2nd 15/2) the red hot Haggas is 4/6, 5 places with his handicappers here. Clearly he doesn’t make the journey that often but it has paid to follow him when he has. 6/1 in a 17 runner, 3yo only, Class 6 handicap may be skinny enough? Unsure. He is only one of four distance winner and two class winners but given the race a lot in here could improve past recent form at some point. Anyway, that is a starting point. On what these have achieved on paper to date he looks solid enough. 
• 4.30 Thisk: Jacobs Pillow – 6/1… (UP) again given the number of runners/type of moderate race this price may be short enough but that is in the eye of the beholder. Trainer/jockey are 3/7, 3 places in handicaps at the track and the trainer is ‘in form’. This horse ran well LTO and could well build on that. A repeat of that run may see him in the mix. The concern is the draw. My Geegeez draw stats suggest those drawn 8 or lower here, 6f on good to firm, 16+ runners…are 0/33, 3 places in the 5 races hitting those exact conditions in recent years. But, a small enough stats pool? Middle to high has been the place to be in such conditions. Also in this race are Cool Strutter who was left alone in the test section LTO having been tipped before. Yep, you know that he won, of course he did! Drops back in trip but there is some pace on so no reason why he won’t run his race again- having had a quick glance. Jebel Tara was tipped LTO as well in the test section and he ran ok on first start for new trainer. Interesting. 

That will be all for the Shortlist. Nothing else stood out to me really.

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Aug/Sept Trainer: Ivory (16/1<) (caution as to his current form)

2.40 Chep: Bobby Vee UP

3.40 Chep: Harlequin Striker 3rd

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Carlisle (15/2<)

5.45 – Farkle Minkus

6.15 – Lady Wootton

7.15 – Chiron

SYSTEM TEST 

OTT – 3.50 Yarm: Pleasure Dome (16/1<) WON 5/2 

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

(running total: 8/61, 15 places…+36.525 points)

3.30 Thirsk

Twin Appeal – 2 points win – 11/1 (coral/WH) 10/1 (general) UP

Money Team- 1 point win – 15/2 (SkyB/BV/Lad) 7/1 (general) UP 12/1

*well nothing to cheer there, neither ever in it. Draw and jockey stats didn’t hinder Mythmaker (albeit a stewards enquiry as I write) who drifted and went off a rather tastier 7s, a bit better than the 9/2/ 5/1 that was around when posted. He was able to get out and get a decent position which I wasn’t sure he would. Damn. Low draws have dominated there today so far…maybe some uneven watering. 

I have decided to go double handed with the David Barron runners here as at the prices they are the ones that stand out to me…

Twin Appeal… I find a few things of interest here. Clearly looking at the recent numbers next to his name doesn’t inspire much confidence- but then again such an approach won’t get you very far in this game. When looking at this race and the horse two things caught my eye- firstly Gibbons rides which is significant given that Barron’s other runner won last time out over CD despite conditions and I assume he would have had the choice.(and he has ridden at 8-7)  That could be significant. The next was his record on his second start of the season. On both previous occasions he has run crackers, coming a close second in 2014 and winning last season in a C3 at Donny. He is 4/14, 7 places and given he is a sprinter he could still have plenty of progress in him this season and next. I have watched his run LTO and you can’t say he was given a hard time. That was in a deeper race than this also and he was allowed to coast home in his own time. Now the questions is the distance, which is why you would want a double figure price as opposed to 5s or something. While he may have ‘looked’ a 7f horse, he has yet to prove that he can’t win over 6f given he hasn’t tried it many times. Plus, in a few of his 7f races he has hit the front around 1f out before fading late in the final furlong. I can see why connections may be trying to make him into a 6f horse. The pace/draw is interesting also and could be another tick. More on that shortly. All in all at a double figure price he just caught my eye. He is also in the top 6 of the total HorseRaceBase ratings and top 6 for ‘last run’ ratings. 67% of winners in these races come from that end of the HRB ratings and they are generally a good guide…. (he is one to track as given his versatility ground wise I would be confident he will win this season…I will try not to miss him when he does!)

Money Team… well he is second rated in the HRB total ratings and top rated on his last run. Geegeez Gold users won’t fail to notice that somewhat eye-popping speed figure either. A confidence booster if nothing else. He travelled well the last day and fought hard to win, the front three someway clear. He has won two on the bounce before also which is a positive. He is 1lb out the weights here but that is no reason alone to ignore him. He clearly handles the CD and I think he won despite the soft ground the last day. His two previous turf handicap wins before that were on good to firm. The jockey booking was interesting…he has ridden the horse before, for his old trainer…and maybe that is why he has been booked as he has only ridden for Barron once before. There is a question over his ability for a C3 but he has placed at the level and placed at C2. At 15/2, 7s I thought that was worth chancing. I may kick myself I didn’t have more than one point on but the horse above just looks a bit more interesting and worth having a bit more on at the odds.

PACE…. Well Mythmaker will blast out from low I think. Harwoods Volante races up there and should make use of his draw – I suspect they will try and lead. Foxtrot Knight – I hope they revert to front running tactics on him from that draw- Evans likes to race prominently (well he has in general in the sprints I have watched from memory – the likes of Hoof It, Bowson Fred and Economic Crisis) and I hope he tries to make all. See The Sun is a pace pusher also. So, I don’t think it will be run at a crawl and the harder the better for the main selection. Hopefully he can track the pace and he will need some luck from that draw but the stats are fine from what I can see in races with this no. of runners. He may need a gap and to barge out which maybe makes a 2 pointer a bit haphazard but there we go. If he can sit 3rd/4th early, next to his stablemate, that would be great…Money Team likes to track the pace and I can’t see an excuse on that front really.

Of the rest… well stalls  1-3 are 1/48, 9 places here in these race conditions, with 10-12 runners. So, it is tough from that side but not impossible. The stalls are stand side and there is a danger they just get marooned up the middle and it could be the faster ground is near side when it is good to firm. Mythmaker is being well backed and I suppose that is no surprise. I tipped him LTO so he will probably romp home. It turned out he was on the wrong side that day but he led for the most part and ran well enough. At the prices I was slightly perturbed by the jockey stats of 1/35, 3 places over the distance here in handicaps. The horse is 0/4, 0 places in this rest pattern of 31-60 days also. But, he is unexposed  and is 3/3 on good to firm. Provided there isn’t a track bias he won’t be far away but just a couple of niggles which put me off at around 11/2.

Harwoods Volante – I can’t work out why Tudhope isn’t on, I find that strange unless it is a weight thing. (it is the weight- 8-11 the lowest he has done in last 12 months) In any case he is running well but he isn’t one I want to take 9/2 about in a race like this. He is 0/3, 0 places over CD, albeit excuses can be made for all of those I think. 0/9, 0 places in C3 handicaps on the turf put me off a bit as did fact he is now 0/13, 2 places OR 81+ and 0/12, 2 places on flat tracks. I don’t think it is a shock that his two good runs recently have been at Leicester and Ascot which are both quite stiff in the finish, or stiff in general. I wonder whether he lacks the speed at a track like this over 6f near the end. We shall see. He can beat me at 9/2. I won’t be shocked if he wins as that last run was very good and he may not be far away. But, hopefully he brings the two selections into it.

Nothing else really jumped out at me at the prices. There are a few unexposed types in here but the likes of Vibrant Chords, Imtiyaaz and Udontdodou now have some questions to answer and at the prices I wasn’t eager. Given their profiles a win for either clearly wouldn’t be a shock. It is that kind of race. Foxtrot Knight is a horse without a trip I think and he has had enough chances for me this season. But, i can see why some make take a stab at 20s. He has been running well albeit the last two runs have been a bit poor. I am unsure whether he quite stays 6f- always outstayed by something and he is yet to win over further than 5f. The trainer is 2/43 in the last 30 days, 0/18, 4 places in the last 14 days and there wasn’t quite enough there to tempt me in. Jockey booking is of some interest but he is finding it hard to win and clearly needs plenty to drop right. Not a total surprise if he fell in but I think I am confortable with leaving him. I don’t like the way he faded at Windsor over 6f having been able to do his own thing up the rail, that stood out also. The rest have questions. I don’t think old Hawkeye will be quick enough for this test but he could stay on for a place if plenty drops right and those in the front third come back to him (I don’t think they will).

Right, that will do.

It looks a decent little contest and hopefully these two run well.

No more races today. I will leave the C6 races. Minefields today.

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