STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Two for the shortlist today…
- 3.45 Kempton: First Dance 10/1….(UP, 4th >6/1) clearly no horse form to go on here so this one is mainly about trainer/jockey… Tate is 3/19,8 places with first time out 2 year olds in the last year. Those figures are only ‘ok’ but of more interest maybe is the fact he is 2/11,5 places with such runners here in the last 5 years. He has been doing well with this type this year and I also liked the fact that Harley was on- they are 2/4, 4 places at the track when teaming up to date. Small numbers, but encouraging. The Gosden horse could be anything and the Vaughan horse could go well.(WON) He has a good record with Freddy T in the saddle at the track (4/12,7 places) but he is ‘only’ 1/17, 4 places with horses making their second start. That was just enough to put me off at 4s but these two could give the fav most to think about. Of course, there could be something else special in here that is unraced and the market may guide.
- 5.50 Worc: Barkis 4/1….(UP 8/1…ran well in an exciting finish and didn’t lose by very far) Another where there isn’t anything of note to go on with the horse but the trainer/jockey stats are solid. Henderson is 11/24, 18 places with all non-handicap hurdle runners at the track in the last 5 years. Not bad. He is 3/9, 4 places with this jockey here, all runners. He has a solid track record in general and in the last year is 6/20, 10 places here. He is also 4/16, 6 places with horses he has got from other yards in the last two years. So, stats wise, a few things of interest. The problem may come in the shape of the two above him in the market. Both won LTO and are at least experienced in this sphere. That may count for something and it may be asking too much for them both to be overturned. We shall see. 4s seemed just about ok to me and the market may well guide.
Aug/Sept Trainer: Ivory (16/1<)
4.00 Bright: Secret Bird- UP (some caution maybe…Ivory is now 0/36,4 places in the last 30 days, 0/17, 1 place in last 14 days. Maybe he isn’t going to fire this September… Only a note/guide he may romp home!)
5.15 – Sam Missile- WON 4/1
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
2.55 Bright: Megalala (7/1<) DNQ / Cranwell (any odds) 3rd
3.30 Bright: Funny Oyster (any odds) UP
2.45 Worc – Water Wagtail… (3rd, distant…9/2>5/2- for a moment it looked like he may get to leader but not much there when asked and Dickie was sat on quite a bit in the end. A moderate race and this one has clearly regressed quite badly. His jumping was a bit iffy at times and while they may find a race for him I am unsure if I will be on again!) 9/2… yep ticks the box of having 1+ run in previous 90 days. Looks interesting enough to me having had a quick glance. Stamina is no problem and on his third start after a break may be about to strike having shown a bit more LTO in headgear. Still lightly raced and drops into a C5. This looks a very weak C5 also. He has a big speed figure compared to rest in here as well. For what it is worth I have had 1 point on at 9/2.
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
From my ‘OTT’ system research post…
Gallagher was 9/27,10 places at Brighton when only sending one runner to the track at the time I pulled that together. He has one only here today…
4.00 Bright- Port Lairge 11/1… (UP,4th where all ‘good’ EW bets finish! Strange ride. The horse has led before and won from out the back so not ‘dodgy’ in that sense- but blimey he was asking a lot for that one to close from that far back. Maybe next time?…) trainer form is a bit of a concern but they will bounce back at some point. The horse is at least doing something different in the sens that he drops into C6 for the first time since last June which was here…he won. He is 3/7, 4 places in C6 turf handicaps. Interesting. He shows up ok on the Geegeez IE tab as well and there may be enough there for a small EW bet for me personally. Slightly concerned with how he weakened LTO- linked to trainer form it may be that they just aren’t going well at the moment. One way to find out!
That will be all for today. Good luck with whatever you play on.