FREE DAILY POST: 03/09/16 (complete)

post complete…just the shortlist and systems etc…

TIPS

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

The shortlist for your perusal… (yet to look at market)

  • 3.40 Ascot: Rock Shine... (UP 6/1>10/1) Hannon is 4/19,9 places with his first time out 2 year olds here and it looks to be one of the tracks he sends the good’uns who are ready to roll. There are four horses in here having their starts and it is hard to know whether they are just making up the numbers and running for a nursery mark.
  • 5.10 Strat: Tengri... (WON 4/1>6/1) Alan King is 3/9, 6 places with stable newcomers in the last year. He is ‘in form’ in all codes and has done well here recently.
  • 4.05 Strat: Tobacco Road– (UP) Pipe is 4/13, 7 with newcomers in the last year (the last winner at Cartmel, I remember it well,for the wrong reasons) and 2/2 at Stratford. The market may guide after the break etc and you can’t help but notice the number of fit, in form horses in this race.
  • 2.40 Ascot: Squats... (4th, 10/1)  Haggas/Moore are 3/7, 4 places in handicaps here so the jockey booking looks significant to an extent. Haggas can do no wrong at the moment albeit not the easiest race in which to improve on those stats.

 

A couple of races where the stats point the way to a couple of horses… 2.20 Thirsk…both the O’Meara horse and the Brown horse have decent stats behind them…O Meara 5/24,10 p first time out 2 year olds last year, 1/6,5 places at track…Brown 2/5,2 places at the track with the same type. (Harwood/MillyBond)

Likewise the 3.35 Stratford has very strong pointers (trainer’s record with handicappers here and/or with jockey) for the Pipe/Scu horse and the Hobbs/Johnson horse…a quick glance indicates it is a horror of a race for me and I will be sitting it out. Hopefully these two can go well but most in here are running well.  Maybe worth a closer look though.

 

SEPT/OCT JUMPS NOTES 

NTD

1.55 Strat – Rock of Lyon … 5/2…(UP) I think he just ticks the 1 run in 90 days ‘positive’, if my maths is right. Either way it is close by a day or two… NTD is in form and he is actually 2/3,2 places with stable newcomers at Stratford.

Lavelle

3.35 Strat – Set List … ticks the 1+ run in 90 days positive stat. 4/1 (Fell)

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Aug/Sept Trainer

Ivory (16/1<)

2.40 Ascot: Twin Sails DNQ

4.10 Ascot: Kadrizzi

5.20 Ascot: Stake Acclaim

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

None.

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

None. I will just keep a watching brief again today. I have run out of time to do any sprint handicaps justice. We shall see if the first instincts were right with El Astronaute and Dutch Masterpiece in the 4pm. The weather is a bit uncertain also at Haydock. Times suggest it was fast yesterday but it doesn’t take too much rain to change the ground here- it may arrive or not.

The 4.10 Ascot looks a head-scratcher also and I will just watch with interest. The step up is interesting for Royal Birth and good luck to those of you on him. Plenty of in form, progressive horses in this and it looks a decent race on paper.

****

TRAINERS IN FORM 

None today. Nothing standing out.

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Spent a while looking at that 3.35,all trainers and jockeys in good form,Hobbs and Johnson both positive with chasers,Daryl Jacob does far better over the smaller obstacles at Stratford but then again he does very well for for Emma’s chasers,maybe a split stake is the way to go on Art Of Logistics and Set List,no win no harm done.In the 4.35 sticking with Bailey/Skelton Dealing River.Jim Crowley travels up to Wolverhampton from kempton tomorrow.His association with David Evans has been profitable where he rides Ballyanna 6.50 and Coldstonsoba 8.50 might pay dividends

  2. “Newcastle” sire extra (Wolverhampton tapeta);

    820 Cape of Glory (Cape Cross) 6/1
    850 Filament of Gold (Street Cry) 33/1

    I’ve had a small punt on FoG (still win only); previous course winner, upped 3f Saturday (has won at the distance, albeit a couple of years ago)…and it’s a shocking looking class 6.

    Paul

  3. The less said about Fanning’s ride on Windforpower the better. Quiet Saturday for me. Firstly with 9-13 mm of rain expected at Stratford I think Kilfinchen Bay is the only one proven over soft ground, trip and class in the 15:35 with each of the other runners having questions to answer. Just about all the boxes are ticked here. 5/8, 6 places in class 3s. 4/6, 5 places in fields of 7 or less. 2/2 in September. 4/8, places on Flat tracks. 9/13, 11 places when 6/1 or less. 5 of the last 10 of Longdson’s runners have finished 1st or 2nd. Jockey has won on him over fences as well which is a plus. Really should be closer to favourite. Secondly having tipped him to win the race 12 months ago at 25/1 I expect Georgian bay to go close in the 16:15 at Kempton. Sadly this year we dont have such loftly odds on offer but we can still get double figures. Vaughan who won him last year returns to the saddle and with his 5lb claim and the fact he was dropped 3lbs for his last run he gets anywhere between 8lb to 14lb swing with the 4 horses which finished ahead of him LTO. The draw shouldnt be a concern given his running style. Hopefully he will go close agian. Lastly with Ascot looking like escaping most of the rain until late I think Royal Birth looks like a very big price. Has finished 1st and 3rd at Ascot this year and the form of both has been franked with the winner of the 2nd race having gone on to win a Listed race. This race is considerably eaiser than either of those 2 and he is effectively only 4lbs higher. Should get a nice tow into the race by Magnus Maximus. Now the main question is this is his first try at 6f however given he seems to have been running on at the end of his races I am confident the extra furlong will not be a problem.

    1. Hi Nick

      Like Royal Birth too lovely stamp of a horse with a classy progressive look and smooth traveller should go well with a clear passage

  4. Hi all

    Went through the card at Thirsk tomorrow on the basis its going to be gd / sft – soft with all the forecast rain tricky looking card but I will be working with the following:

    2.20 Harwood & Iron Islands
    2.55 Pantegra Negra & Dream on Dreamer
    3.25 Kommander Kirkup & Kenny the Captain
    3.55 Kharbetation & Murad Khan
    4.25 Swirral Edge & Acclaim the Nation
    5.00 Tamayuz Magic
    5.35 Bybrook & Volition
    6.05 Stocking & Innexes

    Stand outs at present are Tamayuz Magic with decent breeding figs over the trip & ground and not much else does in that race & Swirral Edge out of Helvelyn (appropriately) who has excellent overall stats on 5f gd/sft – soft. Right off to my Kagool ready for paddock inspection 🙂

    Good Luck with all your selections tomorrow

    1. Well that was a contrast with my 2 main bets Swirral Edge took 6.0 early backed into 3.0 and held out the back and never put in race and then on to Tamayuz Magic took 13.5 backed into 7.0 but won well…went with Murad Khan & Volition too to make a good day overall despite the rain…hope you all had a good day

      Cheers
      Steve

  5. Old Borough Cup 3.30 Hay

    Gold Prince is the only one that stands out at a price, 20/1, from the trends

    Good track form 1.5 lengths behind Tawdea

    Rain would help

  6. I see that Squats seems to be well touted today, 2.40 Ascot.

    Also I like Dance the Dream in the 3.10 Ascot each way and Doctor Sardonicus in the 4.10.

  7. An interesting value bet in the 5.20 bumper at Fontwell tomorrow.Jamie Snowden is in fine form,he is profitable overall in bumpers,his bumpers are profitable at Fontwell,Brendan Powell is 8/45 for a +36pts riding for Snowden in bumpers and also profitable in bumpers at the course, 10/1 is decent price all considering

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