NOTE: You will see an email capture box appear when you visit the site- it shouldn’t be appearing every time you click on a post/home/page etc – I had set it up to appear every couple of weeks. So, something broken there which I will fix asap, as that must be rather annoying I imagine! That is the case for explorer, not sure if it is working with chrome or others?…
TIPS
None.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total: +6.5 points)
4.40 Newbury- Assanika – 33/1 (bet365/BV) 28/1, 25/1 (general)- NR
(everything recorded in this section 1 point win for now- given odds,type of race,shape of market, I have backed this one EW – 1/2 EW. What staking you use, if/how you back it clearly up to you)
This is very much a stats pick and comes from the premise that it may pay, over time, to follow this trainer’s first time out 2 year olds at the track. Overall Harry Dunlop is 3/19,4 places in non handicaps here. He is 2/10, 2 places (the wins) with his first time out 2 year olds here,(1TO2yo) +52 SP. This includes a 40/1 winner back in 2012 and a 20/1 winner here this year in a novice race. That one was ridden by Cosgrave and I found it of some interest that he has been booked for this one also. These stats take on a bit more significance when you see that his overall stats with ‘1TO2yo’ runners are 2/82,9 places. So, his two to date have been at this track. I don’t think that is a coincidence, but maybe it is. The horse – well she has stamina in the blood and is related to 2 year old winners. So, who knows. He doesn’t send many here but every now and then a big one has gone in- and that may be the case over the next couple of seasons. It won’t cost too much over-time. It is tricky as I think you either have to back them all or none at all as I am unsure how you would decide not to back them- the market doesn’t seem much of a guide.
I have backed this one EW given the odds (everything recorded to 1 point win bets here) and a couple of prominent ones near the top of the market. This one may be no good and may be scrubbed along early – binoculars at the ready. But, those are the stats and you can get involved if you wish. I just need to ensure I don’t miss the next big priced 1TO2yo that he has here!
I have left one 20/1 winner on my notepad this season with similar types of stats for a trainer at Nottingham and it isn’t pleasant. This section is still fluctuating and it is a mental battle- in the sense that given my approach there are always certain horses on my notepad and they do include, from time to time, decent priced winners (20/1 x2 for both Appleby and Ken Slack, 1st starts from new yards, in the last month). I will get the balance right at some point. As well as this section needing to be profitable I do want it to provide snippets that you can get stuck into, as well as stats that you may record/follow yourselves over time.
No more. Been through the rest of the notepad and they are all around 9/2, 4/1 and have questions so will leave them. No danger of a biggie being left un-backed this time.
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MICRO SYSTEMS
August Trainers
Fahey (any odds)
4.30 Yarm- Fullon Clarets
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
Newbury (6/1<, possibly becoming obsolete after a handful of decent priced winners this season)
5.10- Blue Suede / Northern Thunder
6.50 – Francisco
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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total… 8/59, 14 places… +40.625 points)
6.50 Newb- None- looks a bit too challenging for me. A few too many in here who do not have many miles on the clock, who are open to progress, and who may enjoy conditions. There does look to be a bit of pace on and with luck in running could set up for Fairwaytoheaven, who if pushed may be the one I went for. But, a race I am happy to leave I think.
Nothing else on Tuesday.
TRAINERS IN FORM
3.30 Yarmouth
Captain Felix – (30) 7/1
Hard Toffee (30) 9/1 (trainer 3/11 here, Gordon booked,and geegeez top speed figure by some way-looks like a thorough stayer though so interesting if has pace for this)
***
That is all for today.
17 Responses
Hi Josh,
What points are you advising Josh on Assanika since you mentioned EW but not how many?
Hi Nick – well that is a good question… I record everything in that section to 1 point win bets at the moment. I have 1/2 on EW, I think that is prudent. People will decide for themselves including leaving well alone no doubt!
Hi Josh / All
First Qualifier for the George Wood angle tomorrow for P Charalambous
6.10pm Chelmsford City – Theydon Thunder 8.0
Good Luck
I’ll run my ratings and draw %s etc over it tomorrow steve. my pencil is usually on fire by about 10am..lol
Hope you were on Iceaxe today Steve….good shout by Tom..
Josh, in the 4.40 is the Meehan horse a qualifier for his maiden system (albeit it hasn’t found a winner yet)
Hi Ali, nope…that system stopped end of July as I researched it. But,you know what will happen now! Results were shocking,-25 or so,only one winner. He has either changed approach,had an awful time at the sales etc a while ago or something else has gone on. Maybe he has decided to be more productive in aug-Oct!! Keep an eye on them but I wont be posting. I should have a look just to double check etc.
Looks another day to keep bets / stakes to a minimum tomorrow but two that caught the eye run in the 15.45 at Southwell tomorrow where the top two in the market look opposable.
The horses I’m drawn to are Makethedifference from the T Vaughan yard (not a yard I generally follow a great deal), but the horse seems to be priced on its last time out display which was its first run for nearly nine months & also Little Pop.
Yes ok, it was beaten some 70 lengths by the reopposing Sailors Warn, however i’m hoping that run may have blown some of the cobwebs away. The horse won 2 on the bounce last september off marks of 101 and 107 including a class 2 at Kelso. It then ran the 132 rated Broughton to within 1 3/4 lengths off 115. Off 114 tomorrow (7 lb higher than its last win mark) it looks to have a chance if now fit.
Vaughan is in fairly decent form (4/16 last 30 days in hurdles), the only other trainer in form is NTD, and its interesting that Sam jumps off No Win No Fee to ride the bottom weight for his Dad, running off its last win mark. At odds of 16/1 & 7/1 these could represent some value in a tricky looking race.
Thanks Leon, took Little Pop in at Bet365 7/1 1pt EW
Credit were it’s due…..Tom put up ICEAXE on Monday…I ran it through my criteria…and it looked in with a really good chance…so I backed it ew…and got 18s from Betfair…..I hope others took Toms bet. Super work Tom…
Cheers mate..pour me a large. lol.
Anyone interested in Course Records? I been collecting them since 2010:-
Includes all courses, flat & jumps, previous holders & the Racing Post standard times for all tracks and is updated as they happen…
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11wAv4zOeeJfWE6sA8foNgZAaktJK1jUcUsRnw7Ei2Y0/edit?usp=sharing – I’ve left it in date order but u should be able to sort to any column u like?
One of the most recent Juvenile track record breakers, S Kirk’s Salouen, although it took 5 starts to show any worth, next time out he just ran from last to 2nd in the final furlong of South Seas’ ‘time of the meet’ race at Sandown on Saturday but couldn’t help notice his breeding [Canford Cliffs / Galileo] along the same lines as H Palmer’s Wall Of Fire who won over 14f same day at York. Considering CC was such a precocious 2yo [clocked highest ever figure as by Nick Mordin] & never ran beyond a mile, he’s getting interesting as a stallion imho
Hi Josh
Those readers who had asked about Trainers Quotes, here are a crunch set of numbers to absorb.
Before yesterday’s results these are the figures for their selections over the past 365 days
FLAT 102 / 1142 – 221.04 loss
A W 134 / 1200 – 332.17 loss
HUNT 115 / 926 – 189.97 loss
I have them listed in HRB but the numbers are for every horse that ran without any filters being applied
Today there is 21 horses engaged : FLAT 10 : AW 5 : HUNT 6 :
yesterday they had 2 winners…. ISP 4/1 & 6/4
Maybe they switch to Laying lol
Free Football tips that pulled +204pts last season? http://halftimefulltime.com/ 1st 100 only free?
My anti virus/malware software is blocking that particular site, comes with a warning!
Josh
if anyone needs help or advice including screenshots of what a system should look like on Horseracebase then I can let them have an email address to assist them, no charge !
I know some have said that it can be difficult to get started with HRB and I am willing to help them
Hi Norman, that is very kind of you. I have a handful of ‘over the shoulder’ videos in the vault of my youtube channel that i may as well re post in the free reports/systems bit.
Given my recent past I wont say what a HRB system should look like haha. You could probably teach me a think or two. I am sure if others have questions they will get in touch.