STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
6.35 Thirsk – Secret Lightning – 1 point win – 14/1 (general) UP
This is a bit of a poke and clearly I am still struggling for some consistency in this section with some good, some bad and some rather ugly selections over recent weeks.
This one looks interesting at the price- she jumps out to an extent on the ‘instant expert’ tab and was worthy of closer inspection. A few things catch the eye- namely the drop into C6 selling handicap class, the drop back to 8f and the return to this track, as well as her handicap mark. Last August she won an 8f, C4 handicap at Ripon off 66. At some point this mark of 55 is going to look lenient. I don’t think she stays 10f so the drop back to 8f is interesting given that is the distance of more recent success. She has also won over CD for this trainer at C6 in a decent size field. In first time blinkers she ran ok LTO for 7-8f or so before fading. The blinkers may have helped to an extent and may or may not work again. The draw is fine on the stats and she likes to front run. There are a few in here who like to get on with it but she doesn’t have to lead and should be able to track the pace, if not leading herself. The trainer is 4/13,6 places in 8f handicaps at the track and 2/8,4 places when Mullen is up. This looks a weak enough race and at the prices looked interesting. It may be that she is just really out of form and is regressing at a fast pace. Given the above at 14s I am happy to take a stab.
That will do for today.
Fahey (any odds)
2.15 Carl: Scotch Mist UP 33/1
3.00 Bright: Bobby Vee UP
J Fanshawe Kempton
8.20 Kempt – Pointel
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
3.30 Bright: Magnificent Madiba (any odds) WON 8/1>5/1
3.45 Carl: Tectonic (15/2<) DNQ
4.45 Carl: Crazy Tornado (15/2<) 3rd
5.15 Carl: Eez Eh (15/2) DNQ (2nd)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
Aprovado – 1.5 points win – 6/1 (general) UP
Lydiate Lady – 1.5 points win – 10/1 (SkyB/BetF/Lad) 9/1 (BV/WH) 8/1 (general) UP*
*oh well that was just rubbish. Aprovado neither went forwards nor backwards and was trapped wide all the way round, weaking in the final furlong. But, couldn’t say that made the difference. Lydiate Lady is usually ridden a bit more prominently but was held up, running as the pre race drift suggested she would. Clearly she has just gone off the boil. The winner was an unexposed 3yo so no shock in that sense, 7th career start. Maybe the good to firm explains that poor run LTO and if you ignored that, and focused on the Haydock run over 5f I can see why some would have had a dart. Slightly put off by trainer stats of 1/57 in last 14 days also. Still a bit to learn methinks. At no point was that race that enjoyable to watch.
This looks like a decent little contest and there have been a few non runners already. It looks set to be run with some cut in the ground but apparently the weather is set fair so hopefully it doesn’t get any worse- albeit these two will be fine on soft.
Aprovado- this one bounced back to form LTO in a 0-75 seemingly enjoying the cut underfoot. This one won off 77 last season and is handicapped to strike again at some point. He has also won over 6f at Pontefract so should appreciate his first visit to this stiff track. This race lacks any out and out front runners so hopefully this prominent racer can get out and grab a position from his wide draw. The draw stats for races with this amount of runners are not off putting and although he has some work to do, 6s was fair I thought in the context of this race. He seems to tick a few boxes and will like the ground. If he can build on that last run, or even just repeat it, he should go close enough. The first furlong will be important, in terms of the position he can get.
Lydiate Lady – well geegeez gold users wont fail to notice her speed rating which is massive in here. It may well be an anomaly but it certainly adds to the confidence. She is also in form and it looks like is now best with cut in the ground. The fast 5f at Haydock doesn’t look to have suited on her last two runs, but she has still run well. The two runs before those recent runs were decent and put her right there in this field for me. She has gone close off 60 in the past so there is hope that this mark of 57 is within range. She is a course winner over 5f, has gone close here over 6f and should run a decent race I hope. 10s/9s seemed a bit big for me. She is also well drawn and usually races handy enough. G Lee had been in the doldrums a bit but things seem to have picked up in recent weeks and he should be riding with more confidence. now.
These two looks best suited/proven in conditions, are not hold up types, are in form, and they still have time on their side.
Eitienne Gerard clearly has a chance but has an inexperienced jockey on top and also has a ground question. It is only a question – rarely races on ground with cut, but given the price those two things put me off a bit. If handling the ground then he won’t be far away. Hopefully the two pros above can out-ride this jockey. The likes of Poppyinthewind and Pushkin Museum have stamina questions. Mercers Row may not be far away but there are a few young ones in here with more time on their side. He is versatile but I would have more confidence if this race were packed full of front runners. He will plod on but I think a few may have a greater turn of foot near the end. Jacobs Pillow was interesting as Danny T gets the leg up for the first time in a while. He has ridden him once and placed on the AW. His wins in recent years have been in claimers and sellers and the ground is also a question for him. If money comes I may be concerned as he was staying on the last day and it wasn’t an awful run. His mark has plummeted but his two runs over 6f before his last run were awful really. On balance just enough questions but I wont be shocked if he out-runs these odds, and rather annoyed if he wins! Given his mark he is one to keep an eye on. The trainer is also a bit cold also.
I can’t really have the rest on the balance of form etc.
So, two decent chances who should run their race. Hopefully one of them has enough to prevail! GL.
TRAINERS IN FORM