Soon I will be dedicating all my attention to jumps research but before then I have done a bit of ‘flat’ digging…
One Track Trainers…
(you can get a PDF version of what follows,including the full tables, HERE>>>)
My first foray into the online racing world was to launch a system called OneTrackTrainers in November 2014. This was a portfolio of trainers who appeared to do well when only sending one runner to the racetrack. In truth it did not perform as expected, hence why I never released it again. By the end of the first year it did just about scrape into profit (20-30 points from memory) but nowhere near the level I or subscribers expected. There were a lot of qualifiers- too many- and in truth it wasn’t the most enjoyable experience- a bit like many of my systems on the blog this year. Work to do.
So, that approach needed some work as does my general approach to system building I think. As a few blog readers have commented it is important to keep on top of any portfolio, constantly monitoring performance, reviewing, adjusting and binning where necessary. That is something I could improve on.
Anyway, I thought I would have another look at the ‘onetracktrainers’ idea/logic to see if I could find anything new- or think about it slightly differently.
The general approach of looking for trainers with only one runner at the track clearly didn’t work.
The logic still makes sense to me in terms of the economics of only sending one horse and it being an indication that it may have been well placed. But, my original thinking was maybe not specific enough, or ‘micro’ enough. Either way it didn’t work.
What follows is just some top level research and a possible starting point for further research either into the angles or any horses/races that they throw up.
To start with I thought I would have a look to see if there were any trainers who did well at tracks they did not target very often. So, an extension to some of that logic above…
With that in mind I have looked at trainers who have had only 1 runner at the track in the previous 730 days.
This would indicate that they don’t send runners to these tracks very often, but that they may mean business when they do. They may be sending more than one runner on the day…
Let’s start with those with 5 or more winners who have been profitable to SP…
The starting point:-
- Flat Turf Only
- Trainers Runners at Track in previous 730 days: 1 only
|Cole, P F I||11||6||54.55||27.66||7||63.64||251.45||35.43||7.67||2.62|
|Hannon (Jnr), Richard||19||6||31.58||13.25||8||42.11||69.74||14.66||-0.49||1.82|
|Ivory, D K||16||5||31.25||22.2||7||43.75||138.75||24.03||3.02||2.13|
|Simcock, D M||11||5||45.45||12.23||6||54.55||111.18||13.06||6.2||1.75|
|Stoute, Sir Michael||11||6||54.55||3.99||6||54.55||36.27||4.73||-1.03||1.23|
You would expect that these horses are being sent to perform. Why else would a trainer go on such rare forays to certain tracks? It would indicate they have been well placed to me, a trainer searching for a decent opportunity at a track that they would rarely visit.
I think there is some logic there.
The odds would back this up, when looking at those trainers collectively.
Those going off over 16/1 are: 0/29, 4 places
A breakdown by trainer of those going off at bigger odds…
|Cole, P F I||2||0||0||-2||0||0||-2||21||0|
|Hannon (Jnr), Richard||2||0||0||-2||0||0||-2||34||0|
|Ivory, D K||2||0||0||-2||0||0||-2||67||0|
Clearly we are dealing with small numbers here but the market appears to be some sort of guide in general, which makes logical sense. If the horse is there to perform you would expect them to be fairly prominent in the market.
So, if you just focussed on those going off at 16/1 or shorter under those rules above you get…
Next we could look at those with 2 runners at the track in the previous 730 days- this averages around 1 a year and again could be an indication of targeting by certain trainers. Of course you could keep going I suppose, when do you stop? But, I will stop at 2 for now…
- Flat Turf Only
- Trainers Runners at Track in previous 730 days: 2 only
|Chapple-Hyam, P W||15||6||40||6.78||8||53.33||45.2||7.74||0.6||1.71|
|Feane, John James||22||5||22.73||28.5||8||36.36||129.55||52.15||18.96||2.39|
|Stoute, Sir Michael||16||7||43.75||13.57||8||50||84.81||17.31||-2.39||1.4|
Again the odds may be some indication with these runners, albeit as always caution is advised.
Those going off over 16/1 are: 0/15, 3 places
Feane and Fellowes are the main big priced culprits, 0/11,2 places between them.
If you were just to focus on those going off 16/1 or shorter SP…
So a couple of interesting angles there and they may be a decent starting point to look at these horses in more depth. There are not too many bets and maybe this more micro, behavioural analysis, is the way forward. It may not be and it will be interesting to track these trainers and see how they get on.
We could look at those trainers who do well when only sending one runner to certain tracks. Again, the following could be used as a good starting point in any horse/race analysis…
- J Gosden/Doncaster: 27 bets / 10 wins / 14 places / 37% sr / +13 SP / +16 BFSP / AE 1.41
- J Gallagher/Brighton: 27 bets / 9 wins / 14 places / 33% sr / +21 SP / +29 BFSP / AE 1.93
- W Haggas/Sandown: 24 bets / 9 wins / 15 places/ 38% sr / +26 SP / +32 BFSP / AE 1.37
- L Cumani/Newbury: 24 bets / 8 wins / 14 places / 33% sr / +11 SP / +12 BFSP / AE 1.57
- W Muir/Nottingham: 23 bets / 8 wins / 11 places / 35% sr / +29 SP / +40 BFSP / AE 2.19
- G Baker/Brighton: 23 bets / 7 wins / 10 places / 30% sr / +26 SP / +36 BFSP / AE 1.93
- S J Harty/Curragh: 23 bets / 7 wins / 13 places / 30% sr / +56 SP / +97 BFSP / AE 3.27
- T D Easterby/Haydock: 24 bets / 6 wins / 9 places / 25% sr / +17 SP / +27 BFSP / AE 1.9
- T Stack/Curragh: 28 bets / 6 wins / 16 places / 21% sr / +81 SP / +175 BFSP / AE 1.69
- D Nicholls/Redcar: 22 bets / 6 wins / 10 places / 27% sr / +21 SP / +24 BFSP / AE 1.91
I did have a look at ‘miles travelled’ but have struggled to find anything too significant.
That will do for this post. A few interesting snippets there I think and a few angles to keep an eye on. Hopefully some of you found that interesting enough and as always any thoughts/questions/better ideas are welcome!