FREE DAILY POST: 17/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Post complete…1.55 York the main focus for the ‘test zone’…

NOTE. If you are a Member and are logged in you have hopefully seen/accessed the two York related posts including a set of ‘trainer notes’ and some pointers, using those notes, for Day 1. It will be interesting how they get on. You can join the Members Club HERE>>> if you so wish. 

 

TIPS 

No bet. I have been looking at the 5.30 Worcester for quite some time and I can’t make up my mind so will leave it. Pacha D P may well win this but I couldn’t be confident at his price now. He should go well but does have some questions, as every single horse in here does. AMIGO was the one I kept staring at but have decided to leave him. There is plenty of form which suggests if he runs his best he could beat this lot. But, he is inconsistent, the ground is a question (I suspect it will be like a road, not really any ‘good’ in it) and with winning form with cut,that is an unknown. There is also a lack of pace in this race which complicates matter- I think Scu could try and lead all the way if he, and the horse, wanted to. If he is leading turning for home and clearly going well,given his assured stamina,I doubt he will be caught. He is also bottom of the HRB total ratings and in general winners from that end of their ratings are hard to find, albeit they do win from time to time. Pipes record in handicap chases here is far from brilliant either. So, I have dodged it a bit. It appears to depend what frame of mind the horse is in. The last run was his bad side. I am not confident on anything so best sit it out.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

(running total: +8.5 points)

None today.

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

4.55 York: Navarone

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Carlisle (15/2<)

3.20: Crazy Tornado UP

3.55: Gold Flash NR

4.30: New Abbey Angel/Shes Electric

5.05: Tectonic

York (9/1<)

1.55: Move In Time DNQ

4.30: Saved By The Bell

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

1.55 York

Duke of Firenze – 1 point EW – 10/1-8/1 (general, 5 places around) 2nd 

Line of Reason – 1 point EW – 14/1 (general, 5 places around) 4th (+4 points on race) 

 

Oh my these races don’t get any easier and they do give you a sore head after a time. I think, possibly, that there is enough pace on here for these two ‘tracker/hold up’ horses. I am hoping they are both not plonked out the back- certainly Line of Reason has tracked the pace in races in the past. Anyway, the likes of Bowson Fred (11),Meadway (9), Robot Boy (7,and in 1st time blinkers) like to get on with it. Soapy Aitken (8) blasted off LT) last time as well. Knowing my luck all the action will end up happening nearside but on paper at least most of the pace looks middle/low. And, so far this season, low has been the place to be on good ground I believe. So, I have two on one side again and that didn’t go too well last time. I also have two who may need a bit of luck. But, there aren’t any prominent racers I am desperate to be on…

Duke of Firenze- well he just hasn’t done much wrong really and 10s, if you can get it, looks decent enough here given there should be a decent pace to aim at. He flew from the back at Goodwood LTO in a much better race than this for me and will appreciate a return to this track and distance. Allan rode him close enough to the pace when winning here earlier in the season from a decent yardstick in Brando and a repeat of that run puts him right there. He has had a few runs now this season that may catch up with him at some point but he didn’t show any signs of that last time. He did well to get as close as he did from that far back at Goodwood. He has the class, has won off 97 in handicaps so not too worried by the mark,likes the track and the ground and is seemingly in form. He should get the race run to suit and I thought looked decent enough here.

Line of Reason- well he returned to form last time out at Ascot having had a messy start. That was his first handicap in quite some time but it was a decent enough run from out the back to me. He also needs a strong pace to aim at and again on paper I think that looks likely. I will be slightly surprised if something hangs on from the front here- famous last words. He chased home a horse who had been running well enough in decent handicaps in Ireland. This time last year he was running decent enough races at G2 and Listed level. That last run indicates this mark could be within range in handicaps, in a race run to suit, albeit I couldn’t confidently say that he has much in hand.

Of the rest…. well I think those drawn on the higher side are up against it. Lexington Abbey has a chance of sorts albeit looks like he wants further to me. Baraweez looked interesting at a price due to the big drop in trip but surely he will be getting outpaced/behind here, even with a fast pace. If he is travelling well in midfield early here that would be interesting but he looks a 7-10f horse to date. Boom The Groom- well he is a downhill horse for me and I am unsure if this more galloping track will suit- his best grass runs have been at Epsom and Goodwood. That last win was decent and he did drift all the way over- it would appear though he was coming from the bets part of the track, given how the rest of the week went. The rise may find him out, but he does have that track question. Royal Birth has that draw/side of track to overcome and I don’t know who will take him into this. Hey Chewed may for a time. That last run was only ok, struggling to reel in the front two. He ran ok here twice earlier in the season but is held by DoF. There is around an 8lb swing from that day I think but he did that well enough there to suggest that isn’t enough to overturn things for me. If I have the draw/pace wrong, he may embarrass me. He seems to like that stiff Ascot strip, coming home late.

Bowson Fred had everything go right the last day and still couldn’t hold on. I am hoping he sets this up for a few closers. It will be interesting what the jockey does- stay up the middle, or try and edge over one way or the other.  I didn’t know what to make about the jockey situation and the fact Evans has jumped off. In effect he is 5lbs higher here. He keeps finding a few too good in this class but should give it a good go. I worry about good to firm for Harry Hurricane, that is a question he has. He is also a hold up horse who needs plenty to go right, including the start which he can mess up. He may not be far away up the middle. Robot Boy interested me but I didn’t like the first time blinkers. Connections clearly think he may hold some back at times. He should be up there from the off and has some sort of chance. It depends how he reacts to the headgear and Barron is coming into form.

Hoofalong interested me at a price and if any money came I would be concerned. I just thought the last two runs, and the last one, was just a bit too poor for me. That musselburgh win does stick in the mind though, he did that well in a decent race. He has ran well at the track also. Out of all the bigger priced ones he stands out and I hope I don’t regret not having a nibble. I am struggling to see an excuse for LTO unless I have missed something. Maybe he didn’t like the track. The run before that wasn’t great either. He is 5lb above that last win also. He could still have progress in him. If he wins, on the back of Nameitwhatyoulike being scrubbed off last, I may go into hibernation until October! That doesn’t leave many left but I was struggling to make a case for them.

This looks a toughie but I wanted to have a go. Plenty of ifs and buts etc. Fingers crossed there is plenty of pace on here and my two can get into a decent position to strike entering the final furlong. It looks an intriguing race.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM

None today.

 

***

Good luck with your bets today!

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Frankie Dettori. Over the last 12 months at York.
    28 rides…8 winners at a SR of 29% with a LSP of 18pts.

    Jack Garrity. Over the last 12 months at York.
    31 rides…6 winners & 4 places, at a winning SR of 19%. and a placing SR of 32%.
    £ of the winners were at double figures, with a very pleasing profit of 52pts. He still may be under the radar.

    Andrea Atzeni rides the longer races C 1 and C 2 better..At 12/13 furlongs his win% hovers around 20%.
    Riding for Roger Varian it is better still. 3 wins from 6 rides with 2 places. Overall profit of 10 pts.

  2. Evening Josh/Everyone

    First of all you should be able to get 12/1 on Duke of Firenze at around 8:30am tomorrow on 365.

    I personally cant see past Pasha Du Polder in the 17:30 at Worcester barring jockey error although price is shrinking. I also think Mutakayyef has a real chance in the Juddmonte and is way too big (also both Dutch Connection and Richard Pankhurst have franked the form). The other one I want to give another chance to is the Cashel Man in the 16:20. Away from York I am hopeful of Artful Prince in the 17:05 Carlisle (2/3 at the track) with Joe Doyle on board (3/7, 4 places) can return to winning ways.

    Regards,
    Nick

    1. I don’t like to bash jockeys but what the hell was Sherwood doing there getting into a battle for the lead with Amigo.

  3. Hi Josh
    As a 5% owner of Lexington Abbey interested in your comments on him as there are divergent views in the syndicate on his best trip. I’m inclined to agree with you that he will probably want 6f. He ran a good race last time out but was effectively beaten by the draw although I was pleasantly surprised that he was dropped a pound. With another high draw it is difficult to see a different outcome although you never know. On the plus side Jamie Spencer is back on board – 2 wins and 5 places from 8 rides and he has been tipped up by a tipster who you recommend. Setting off for York now in hope rather than expectation.

    1. Hi Steve… good luck with him today…I won’t be falling of my chair if he wins (only about 3/4 in here where that would be the case I think!) – You will need Hey Chewed to blast out I think- my approach suggests the action will be far side and that there is a track bias here this season. BUT, the clerk will be aware of that and you never know what they have done since the last meeting (assume they are allowed to try and correct a bias, unsure whether we would know or not- more watering maybe etc)
      Maybe this 5f,89 yards will be ideal- but his last two runs, and form over 6f, form at Ascot, suggests he likes a good stamina test. If he were on the low side I would be more confident. He also falls down in a couple of ‘York stats’ for the trainer at this meeting, but they are there to be broken. The harder they go the better for him and it could set up for him.

      You have to have a nibble and he is in form and we know general conditions are fine. You suspect he will be doing his best work late though.
      Certainly don’t let me put you off- I am mixing the occasional sublime with the outright awful with my sprint handicappers this year!

  4. interesting stat from hugh taylor today. last 9 handicaps at york have been won by stalls 1 to 5. I will be doing 1-55 and 4.55 all stalls 1 to 5 in doubles. line of reason drawn in 1 to 5.

    1. Cheers Malcolm, yep does suggest a clear track bias, clearly a quicker strip of ground up that side. Sustained pace is there as well. Should be no excuse on that front for my two, but we shall see! Good luck. Decent prices on the other three drawn 1-5.

    1. Yea a great race and at least a small return, entertained all the way – I was confident enough those two would run well- sprinters in form coming to the fore again.

      No excuses, I wouldn’t say unlucky, beaten by a better/tougher horse on the day.

      Maybe too quick to label Boom the Groom and has proved he isn’t just a downhill speedster- am sure DoF headed him at one stage but credit to the horse who out battled him. Wasn’t sure he could progress again in a deep race here but he has there, a career best for me on the turf. Proven track form this time swung me towards others. Happy enough- am not in a ‘nameitwhatyoulike’ pit of sorrow this time!

      The draw was interesting and I don’t know what to think given the 3rd- sustained pace was middle/low which may have been more important there- and the three drawn 1-5 who won/placed were entitled to do that on form. But, I think you would always want something onside low on the straight track this week.

        1. yep good point- it was a very good ride, got after him early and got to the front when he wanted- and arguably helped make up horse’s mind late on.

    1. Cheers Tony- I am the first to highlight any bad luck, don’t think we suffered any genuine bad luck there- race was run ti suit, I think he got to the front but was out-battled. Line of Reason ran well also, looked likely to be right there at one stage. No complaints, good fun to watch.

  5. first leg of my stall 1 to 5 double up, now got £3 win on 4.55 stalls 1 to 5, will be decent profit for £5 stake

    1. yep good luck Malcolm- they all look decent prices in that race and it will be some return if one comes in. Will be watching with great interest!

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