JULY 2016 RESULTS
TIPS
1/14, 1 place = -8.5 points
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
4/21 = +13.5 points
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MICRO SYSTEMS
Other
1/20 = -18.5 points
Jumps Handicappers
0/2 = -2 points
Total = 1/22… -20.5 points
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
8/95 = -51 points
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2016 Running Totals to End July
TIPS
200 bets | 30 wins | 33 W/P | 15% sr | +96.55 points (advised prices) | +40.35 BFSP (Betfair SP, exc commission)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
7/54 = +16.5 points
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MICRO SYSTEMS (exc TTP)
57/428 = -45 points
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
22/109 = -55 points
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REFLECTIONS
TIPS
Well another mediocre effort on that front but at the odds I play at, and at the winners I do occasionally land, it won’t take much to eradicate losses of recent weeks/months. Since the start of April, to the end of July, the Tips lost 27 points. I believe 20 of those have been from flat tips, with only one winner to show for my efforts to date. Many have been poor. But, that is only 1-3 wins away from getting back into positive territory and you have to stay positive!
I upped my game a bit on the Stats/Angles of Interest Section and while that is still in its infancy I suppose, it is looking ok. If I could repeat July every month that would be good! If I could average 8-10 points profit per month from that section I think that would add some benefit to the daily posts.
There is of course the Sprint Handicap Testing Zone as well- and for my own benefit in terms of confidence etc if I added all ‘tipping content’ together that is on around +156 points for the year to date, which isn’t too bad. That is more for my own self belief/development given that is a test section, and the Stats/Angles is relatively new ( and in context that official Tips have had a lull)
So, nothing too much there for me to worry about just yet, albeit I am conscious of the performance of the main Tips. Plenty to improve and to work on as always.
The SYSTEMS…
Gulp…. well I think it is best to treat these with a lot of caution now. Let me go in reverse…
TTP… these systems from my TTP Flat Profiles Guide were new this year and a trial of sorts on the blog, to be used as a guide. They needed to work systematically and to work as a portfolio. So far they are failing miserably with no great signs of life. They clearly need a rethink – as does my whole approach to micro systems in truth…
I do need to go through the micro systems portfolio and see which ones have done well and which have failed/are failing. I will do that asap. But again, they don’t make the prettiest of reading.
They are clearly not doing as intended and I am tempted to advise not to back them at all given the above until I have had an in depth look and pondered their future, and what I need to work on systems wise.
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Any questions etc then do fire away as always…
5 Responses
Bit overwhelming for me ….to many tips far to many bets for myself,,, Have been following your national hunt selections i.e main tips ..very good indeed in fact some of the best ive come across ..cant understand why so many different factors angles when you seem to excel from certain types of n.h races..
Hi Christine. The main ‘tips’ are what they are,mainly NH. I have ventured more into sprint handicaps during flat after doing ok last season, using stats/trends etc but that hasn’t gone very well! I like the 3m+chases in winter months and have been good at those,historically. Hopefully I can continue that in the coming months.
Everything else is/was an attempt to add some more things of interest,that you can use as a starting point yourself,or just ignore etc. ‘Tips’ will remain the main/only tipping element,where I look at a race in depth and that will be the case again with the jumpers in coming weeks/months.
I have clearly struggled to find an approach that works this flat season and some pondering for next.
Josh
Thanks for the reply always appreciated …looking forward to the jumps season proper ….
I’m looking for the best lay system, I have tried a lot but, I find one winner at the odds take all the profit. Would love to find one that wins , with short odds, so when I lose it does not take all the profit. Can you please help.
No reply received , for lay system.