SUMMARY: Sprint Test Tips in the 5.00/5.35/6.20 and a Stats/Angles poke in the 8.10 Kempton….
Well I have the pleasure of turning 27 today (the 10th), edging closer to that magical 30…gulp. (yes yes I can hear many of you muttering ‘stop your moaning young man!’) I will be celebrating with around 40 friends on Saturday evening, continuing what is now an annual party that I first held on my 16th. I don’ think my parents mind the annual descent on their house! One year I will drag them all up to Liverpool, but the flat is a bit small and I will need to up-size first. Anyway, I will be trying my best to find a birthday winner….
Free Football Ante Post Betting Guide…
If you missed my email earlier you can get a free 16 page footy guide for the new season HERE>>> I have met the author, Paul, a few times and he knows his stuff. This freebie is worth the read if you like watching/betting on your football. It’s packed full of interesting snippets as well as Paul’s best ante post bets, including a 50/1 relegation treble. That may keep you entertained for a large chunk of the season. Anyway, you can head HERE>>> to check that out.
I was going to mention some of the horses I left on my notepad yesterday morning, left out of the ‘stats angles of interest’ section. It is far too painful to dwell on them for too long. (albeit I have for long enough to try and ensure I don’t miss that type next time- and there will be a next time) Suffice to say If you are an avid user of Geegeez Gold Stats Reports, and just trusted the stats alone…(instead of overthinking like me) you probably found the winner of the 3.00 Thirsk 16/1, the 3.15 Chepstow 10/1 and the 5.10 Lingfield 10/1. Suffice to say I am not in the best of moods as I age another year! 🙂 I only had 4 horses on my notepad today, from that scan through. 36 points left on the notepad. Pass the noose. Still, another good day for ‘Gold’ at least, and you can now get a 30 day trial for £1 if you click the big blue box to the right. Definitely worth £1, and with any luck you may pay for a few months subscription during the next 30 days.
Maybe I should just post my shortlist in the Members Forum moving forward. Many of you will likely make better final decisions than I do sometimes. Something else to ponder. This game is essentially a mental struggle/battle!
RESULTS… I have updated results for the year to date/July. I have reflected on them and they are worth a read… the systems have been abject at best in truth and extreme caution is advised, esp with TTP ones which were new this year. I need to go through the individual micro systems, as well as take a long hard look at my own approach. Anyway, that post is on the Home Page or under the RESULTS tab.
Right, onto the horses….
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
8.10 Kempton – Personal Touch- 1 point win – 16/1 (SB/BV/WH) UP
This is one of the few ‘profile horses’ I researched and in truth not many of them have run in ‘ideal conditions’ as yet, and a couple have won at levels seemingly beyond them. This horse is 3/7,5 places when dropping into C4<6k handicaps. He has won at the C4 level above this, but those wins have been rare- indeed he is 1/27, 7 places above this C4 level in handicaps. His best form has also been over 7f. He has a decent record on the all-weather, albeit this is his first trip here. This is his first run in this class for this trainer and two starts ago he ran well in the C4 above this. The jockey is 3/10,4 places for Appleby in handicaps and that was another tick. He looks weak in the market, and there are some more fancied ones with more appealing profiles. But, given the above and the price I had to have a go. I am convinced the trainer will get a win from him at this class,(as his two previous trainers have done) whether on the sand or the turf, and hopefully it comes sooner rather than later. He has the ability to take this race. The market may well guide, the early signs far from positive!
That is all for today.
5.35 Bev: One Boy (any odds) UP
Roger Varian Females (25/1<)
3.50 Salis: Sharja Queen UP (they are definitely ill I think)
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
4.00 Bev: Templier (any odds) UP
4.30 Bev: Spance Mountain (any odds) WON 5/4
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
Day total: 1/3,1 place… +6 points.
Noodles Blue Boy – 1 point win – 9/1 (general,6 bookies odds checker) 8/1 (general) UP*
*Oh,well they decided not to bother riding him forward at all here. How very strange! The money came for Bosham late, 25s into 12s… apart from his recent form I was mainly put off by his course record here, 0/7,0 places..most off lower marks in similar conditions, and a few when he had got an easy lead. And I certainly didn’t think he would get an easy time at the front here. He was dropping in class from recent runs and had plummeted through the weights so I can see why some may have had a go at the prices. Dont think my pin was close to him! Easterby gamble landed, in part helped by that easy lead…….. hmmmm. Noodles is in again tomorrow, he didn’t have much of a race there so interesting if he turns up.
I have deliberated this one and it was either a small nibble on this old veteran or no bet at all. At the prices I have just decided to have a dart. It is mainly his draw, his speed and his recent runs which spurred me on. That last run should be marked up- he dwelt in the stalls (a slight niggle) and was behind runners before being rushed up and sent to the front. In part this lit him up further I think and the jockey didn’t do much to retrain him- he flew. He managed to keep going entering the final 1/2 furlong before those exertions took their toll. He has the highest speed figure in here and the top two (Fyrecracker the other) are some way clear of the rest. The jockey booking also caught the eye, in the sense that it is the first time he gets a pro in 10 starts and it is the first time he has ridden the horse. That could make some difference, certainly in terms of getting the fractions right. He doesn’t win very often but usually gets one on the board every year and he is running as if there is still life. He has gone close off 74 last season in a class, 4, with no jockey claim.
There is potentially other pace pressure but I don’t think anything else is as quick as him in the early stages here, if braking on terms. Bosham may try from his low draw, the Ryan horse can push the pace and maybe Fyrecracker. If they do too much then it is likely he will fade late again, hence no EW bet. I thought he was worth a go- he could make all here against horses with plenty of questions.
Most in here have questions now albeit there are a few 3 year olds who may step forward at some point. Geno keeps changing trip and headgear- suggesting connections don’t really know. He does get Stott on board and maybe he makes horses respond differently. He is in good form and maybe 6s is fair. He will be up there, tracking the pace. But, he does keep disappointing. A return to the CD of his one win may help. Fyrecracker would have a chance and is dropping in trip which caught the eye, although he has been staying on over 6f. If he can lay up here he may go close. He could get behind though. Salvatore Fury would have a chance on bits and pieces of form as does First Bombardment. If there is a pace collapse that would bring Oriental Splendour and Savannah Beau into it, who will need plenty of luck given their running styles and draw.
So, it does have an open feel to it. I am hoping Noodles can break on terms, get out fast, bag the rail, see off any other early pace pushers and make all.
Mappin Time – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/lad/BetB) 15/2 (general) WON 9/2 SP *
*well I suppose getting the pace spot on in both races here was maybe too much to ask, thankfully this one went perfectly to plan- they blasted off, the pace collapsed and this classier/well handicapped beast made the most. The gaps came and job done. It was a bit touch and go until the camera levelled up but comfortable enough for a sprint. Job done. Class droppers doing the job in both races- I wonder if the Easterby clan had the double on. Drinks all round!
If the pace-map is to be believed this one is going to get the perfect set-up here. He seems to have plenty in his favour, and with luck in running, could well take this. I can count 6 in here who usually lead if they can, a further couple who can push the pace. This looks like it should be run at a frenetic pace, unless a few too many change tactics of course. Either way he is well enough drawn to sit off this pace and come through runner. He may hit traffic etc but that is the chance you take. His best run of recent times was over CD a couple of runs ago where there was a pace collapse and he ran well enough. The class drop catches the eye as well. He is 2/3,3 places in C5 in his career and hasn’t run at this level for a long long time. He was good enough to come a close 5th in a C2 at York last May off 87, running off 73 here. He has form on a decent surface. So, hopefully, they all go too quick and set it up for this one. He looks best over 5f these days and if putting it all together would win this.
As always in these races you can make a case for a few. Ellison runs one for the first time from another yard. He does well here in these conditions (5/22,8 p in CD handicaps, C5,good/firm) The horse is 8lb above his highest mark but changes of scenery can work wonders. For old connections he liked to get on with it- i hope they continue that. Whozthecat is just tricky and is 0/5,0 places over CD in handicaps. From the wide drawn Tudhope has a decision to make and I hope he decides to rush him forwards and to be up there. Krystallite was fancied by me at 14s before being pulled out yesterday. She would have a chance but is another who may suffer from a pace battle. She may not of course but isn’t 14s here. Bond Bombshell clearly has a chance but has gone up again, and has the pace problem also.
So, Mappin Time clearly needs plenty to go right for him to win. He is a hold up horse and he may be unlucky in the run. But, he gets what he needs here and a massive run looks on the cards to me. He is clearly a thinker though, let’s hope he got out the right side of the stable today.
Royal Brave – 1 points win – 4/1 (bet365) 7/2 (general) UP*
*well I was right to be cautious but even so that was a rather poor effort. Not sure what was up there but I cant think that was his running. A line through that one. Those ‘trapped wide fast finishing LTO’ do suck you in. Maybe a return to Ponte is needed with a low draw, luck in running and an EW price.
Well having pondered I have concluded that I think 7/2 is a fair price here given his form and that of the others. I was tempted to go 2 points but the number of 3 year olds, despite having moderate form to my eyes, haunts me slightly – as does the lack of obvious pace. But, this one can race handily enough and will enjoy this fairly steep climb to the line. He is well handicapped now and has run a couple of crackers in recent runs. I think this looks the weakest race he has contested in recent runs. That run LTO at Ponte has to be marked up given he had to circle runners from out the back from his draw. He did very well to get that close and a repeat of that run sees him take this for me. That was a decent little contest. He has placed at the track and on firm ground. The trainer is 2/7,5 places with her runners here to date. The rest in here have some sort of question now and this looks his for the taking. To two points or not to two points, that is the question. I will take the cautious approach this time.
CATALINAS DIAMOND… I will leave at 8s and we know what will happen now. She will probably be the only one in this section to win knowing my luck/recent mental anguish! What a Birthday present that would be! She has never fully convinced when it is rattling quick here- all wins on good/good to soft and she usually needs a strong pace to aim at. I don’t think he will get that here and it could be a tactical affair. She is up against some more in form rivals open to further progress.
That is all for the sprinters today.
TRAINERS IN FORM
Enough going on today so I will leave this bit.