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To today’s racing…
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
None. Winners have tended to jump out at me and I should be more patient. Nothing doing that today.
5.10 Ling: Surfina (16/1<)
6.00 Notts: Champion Harbour (any odds)
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
4.00 Thirsk: Tamayuz Magic (28/1<)
5.30 Notts: Little Choosey (any odds)
6.15 Ling: Great Expectations / Tilsworth Miky
8.30 Notts: First Excel / Men United (any odds the pair)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
It would appear that Dunce rhymes with Bunce and on that basis I owe you a slight apology for my ineptitude. No problems with Blue Sonic- she is a hold up horse and sometimes (often) you have to take your medicine- and there are lessons to be learnt there about just backing one hold up horse in a race, and never having something more prominent on your side, especially when a single figure price. BUT, why oh why I didn’t consider her stable mate Bunce in more depth I have no idea. I think in part I had ‘recency blinkered syndrome’ whereby my eyes were far too fixated on BS. Amateur. Slap on the wrist. If I fancied Bunce LTO,- 10 days ago when tipped- I had to have a go at 12s here. Change of jockey (noted at the time Lee’s poor record on stables horses), dropped a few more pounds, maybe in a weaker race, (definitely in a weaker race than when hitting trouble a few runs ago) and back to Ayr after a few runs away, a course we know he likes. The lump on my head, from repeatedly banging the table from about 4.03-4.10 won’t make you feel any better or any richer if you followed me in. That was poor, and I will try and ensure it doesn’t happen again. I don’t think I properly considered his chance, that was the crime. You can’t cut corners in this game. More work to do on my tracking game also. Mistakes like that happen, you just have to try and ensure they don’t happen too often.
No bet…I have started with the C4 handicaps and having spent just over an hour looking at this one, the horse I was starting to home in on at 14s is now a non-runner. I would now be having a bet for the sake of it which is never wise. There isn’t anything else at a big price I like and the race was starting to give me a headache. Most of the bursting speed is low, they could cut each others throats and I don’t know what is running well enough to pick up the pieces. The pace may collapse for Mushariff (3rd) but he needs plenty of luck given his running style. Seamster (won) and Ziggy Lee (2nd) may not be far away up the near side. One to watch with my notepad I think. Interesting how the pace plays out. I thought Krystallite may get her own way up front up the near side and could be hard to peg back, esp if far side faded having all gone too quick. She is speedy and looked to be coming into some form. Unsure if they may split, all tack over to this side/run in one group.
Monarch Maid – 2 points win – 7/1 (BetF/BV/SJ/Betway) 6/1 (general) UP* (-2 points)
*hmm no excuses there- was that a late jockey change or incorrectly down on the cards, in any case I don’t think the 5lb made a difference- not good enough there. Got out, able to lead against the rail and well beaten. Not much analysis needed of that. Clearly he was 7s for a reason!
I am unsure what I have missed here but to my eyes this one leaps of the page at the prices, even more so after the non-runners. This one is the only one in here without much to prove for me and she ticks plenty of boxes. PACE is what catches the eye. This is the only out and out front runner in the race and there is chance she could get her own way up front here and make all- that is the hope anyway. On her run last time out, in a much bigger field over the CD, in this class, (well that was a 0-80,this a 0-85) she led her side all the way, picking up well when asked and running all the way through the line. Unfortunately she bumped into one on the far side who made all his own running also. That was some run and maybe it was better ground that side, I don’t know. But, she did all she could and came a valiant second. A repeat of that must put her close here. D Parkes returns and he knows her well enough, having won on her before. With his claim she is 3lb better off than the last day. The trainer is in fine form also 3/12 in the last 30 days, 2/5, 2 places the last 14 days. There could be more to come also at some stage. She is also in form and has no questions to answer for me really. I can’t quite believe her price here which makes me suspicious. I think she should be favourite.
The opposition all have something to prove- Andar… well in first time blinkers I hope he doesn’t spoil the party as he has led before but is still a maiden, has been disappointing and gets first time blinkers here. Kirby is up which is eye-catching but he needs to step up. Hopefully he is held off the pace- in any case he should fade in the final furlong hopefully. He hasn’t led on his most recent runs. Alizoom has question and so does Operative who also gets first time blinkers- his last two runs, his first two in handicaps, have been underwhelming. Gold Hunter is a tardy starter and has been staying on over 7f – in a race without loads of front runners I can only think he may struggle to get into this one. I mean he is doing something different by dropping but I can’t see much which suggests that is an inspired move. He is 1/20 and yet to win in handicaps. Egg at the ready. Midnight Rider runs over all kinds of distance and whether he has the speed for this has to be a question. His last win was over this CD last August so it isn’t impossible but he looks short enough. He has been staying on over 7-8f, not fading so who knows. Maybe it has been a ploy to get the mark down. I don’t see this leader coming back to them though if getting her own way. Gilmer is a hold up type who chased home the selection this side LTO- unless my one does too much up front I can’t see that being overturned. They could be the 1-2 here again.
So, all in all, for one in form, pretty much proven in conditions, who looks genuine and could get her own way up front, 7s/6s seemed rather big to me. Hopefully she leads them all the way here.
That is all for today.
NOTE: A few recent ‘tips’ reappear today…
- AJ Cook in the 5.35 who I missed LTO having tipped the run before. He isn’t much of a price for one who needs a lot to fall right on the pace front. He could follow up but I will just watch
- 3.30 Thirsk- Lydia’s Place who was a bit too poor LTO for my liking, failing to build on her Muss run. She looks weak in the market here and a watching brief looks the best bet- she should take the low numbers along, with a few others. Will be sickening if she does drop in but there is no obvious excuse for that last run.
- 8.30 Notts – Loumarin goes for Appleby here but 4s seems short enough given that run LTO. I suspect he hated the track, never looking happy at all. If he returns to the form of that Notts run before he would go close. There is a bit of pace to aim at here also. Interesting, but 4s doesn’t have me jumping up and down – cue winning like an evens shot!
TRAINERS IN FORM