FREE DAILY POST: 11/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Post Complete. A couple of Stats tips from Worcester…

Thanks all for your Birthday wishes, much appreciated. Thankfully I could provide one winner for us all to cheer and it was a +5 point day on the ‘tipping’ front.

 

NOTE: Some big race trends/stats for Saturday will be posted in the next couple of hours, Members Only. (or you can get a day pass and read the post if you wanted) Definitely the big handicap from Ripon and maybe one or two others.

 

TIPS

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

4.30 Worcester

Holy Cross – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/SB/BV/BetB) UP 3/1

This one looks a bit big given the trainer and jockey form. The ‘way in’ was the jockey/trainer combo here. Clearly this relationship is in its infancy but they are already 3/5 here, 2/3 in hurdles. Curtis’ stats here are 23/85,42 all runners, 10/44,18p in hurdles and 7/29,12p in non-handicap hurdles – 24% sr, +37 SP. Her maiden hurdle runners do turn up here to win (as well as the 20s pokes who dont) and hopefully this is another. It looks like he has been given time after  a few starts last year, to strengthen up maybe. Anyway, he returned a few weeks ago and ran well, getting a bit out-paced before staying on. If you are running for a mark you don’t run like that for me. On the basis of that run the step up in trip should help – another positive.

So all in all, 10s looks a bit big. She has only had 1 runner in the last month, but that placed. There is a short priced Pipe one in here from France. Who knows how good that one will be, if any good at all. Happy to have a go at this one.

I was going to wait until the morning but this one stands out and I don’t need to ponder any more…

 

3.00 Worcester

Black Sam – 1 point win- 9/2 (SkyB/BV/WH) 4/1 (general) 2nd 11/4

Given the stats I think 9/2 is more than fair here. Alan King is 3/8,5 places with stable newcomers in the last year, from other yards, 5/20,12 places in the last two years. He is 5/15,12 places in non handicaps at the track in the last 5 years, 1/2 in NHF races. Hutch is 4/9,8 places on the boss’s non-handicap runners here, including that NHF winner. The horse is related to bumper winners. The trainer is in cracking form- 5/17 in the last 14 days. The horse comes here off a long break but her last run did produce winners. I suppose there is an unknown over the ground but King wouldn’t run her if he didn’t think he should handle it I don’t think. Given his superb record with 1st time out bumper horses, I don’ think the break or fitness should be a concern. There may have been problems or they have just let her develop. 9/2 looks big enough given all the above and if we backed every horse at 9/2 when ticking all those boxes above, I think we would do ok long term.

That is all for today. I hope you got on Holy Cross last night, bookies got their pricing wrong with this one I think, whatever he does he was no 10s shot in this race. He will be recorded at 8s when he coasts home, I don’t think 10s lasted too long across the board but 8s was around for a few hours. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

5.15 Salis: Alyssa (any odds) WON 5/6

6.05 Yarm: Duke of Diamonds (10/1<) 2nd 2/1

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TEST ZONE 

(running total: 8/50, 12 places… +46.625)

None. I had a look at the Beverley sprint handicap but there are too many 3 year olds in there and then there are the jockeys. I also looked at the 6.35 Yarmouth but my word is that a poor race- awful – a proper pin job. Something will win but I have no idea which one.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

A couple of jumps starting points today…

2.00 Worc- What Happens Now – (14,30) 7/2 WON 6/1 

7.20 Stratford – Shantou Tiger – (14,30) 9/1 | Exemplary (14,30) 15/2

***

That is all for today.

***

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. Well done on Mapping Time, Josh followed you in there.
    I was waiting for you to do a post for the 11th as I wanted to mention Holy Cross myself as I put in my tracker after its last run.
    Its run last time at Stratford was extremely eye-catching after 200 odd days off the course. I backed it ew that day but missed out on a place due to it being a 7 runner affair. If i remember rightly it opened up around 20/1 and got backed in to 12’s at the off, so a bit of confidence was there.
    Regarding it “getting a bit out-paced before staying on” – have a watch of the race again if you get chance as the horse enters around the final bend, Townend took a couple of tugs on him holding the horse back enough allowing the front two a bit of daylight before easing the reigns and letting Holy cross go once it was too late to catch the front pair. The step up to 2m4f looks spot on and i’m hoping for a big run the way Holy Cross finished off. Breeding is quite impressive for the horse being by Yeats and a half brother to Binocular, he could certainly be half decent.
    Trnr/jockey stats decent too as yo say with the combo 6/22, 2/9 in hurdles the past year or so. Citrus the unknown but surely priced up according to stable reputation.
    Good luck.

    1. Thanks Leon- yep agree about price of fav- certainly on stable reputation and having one of ‘those french profiles’ which is hard to gauge. He is young, may still need time and steps up in trip here. Unless owner/connected to yard unsure why you would lump on at that price unless we have missed something.

      10/1 certainly too big for Curtis runner…must admit I have watched it a couple of times and am struggle to see the pull back- maybe I need new set of new glasses! Certainly he will come on for the run in terms of experience. Made some sloppy jumps, including a horlix down the back where landing on all fours I think, was then ridden for most of the way and somewhat cajoled. He wasn’t given a hard time and stayed on well enough, pinging the last. I suspect jockey was instructed not to go too hard on him and for a gentle introduction to the hurdling game. He was very novicey in places. Jockey was bumping along from some way out with a few gentle slaps down the shoulder. Unsure if he would have caught front pair in that race even if given the treatment.
      Anyway, I expect we shall see better here, and has that long home straight to wind up. And yep, the bloodlines did catch the eye also. Good luck. (i do need to improve on my jockeyship watching skills)

      1. Hi josh. how do i find the Geegeez Gold Stats Reports you mentioned about the winners you highlighted today.
        i am cuurently on a trial offer and already find it very useful.

        1. Hi Daniel, when you are logged in it is just the ‘reports’ tab at the top, to the right of ‘racecards’- a whole list there to flick through and play with.

  2. Belated birthday greetings,bit torn in that 3pm at worcester,its very rare to see a geatrex bumper horse at 10/1.perhaps not fancied even though he is 4/6 at track and Tinkler is 2/4 in bumpers for Geatrex,may have nibble on both

    1. The Greatrex stable have been found wanting this summer. I have not heard about much but what I have heard has been mediocre. I will post a lunch time if I hear anything in the morning.

      1. I did not hear anything re the above and so cannot give you any further hope re this Greatrex runner. However if it does win my contact will be gelded!

        I hear that Gay Kelleway has a fancied each way punt today, in the 8.05 Yarmouth, Color Force, 10/1 available.

        1. Cheers Martin- certainly worth a little dabble, I still remember the 20/1 GK winner you put up here a few months back. Looks an interesting one in a race with no stand outs- handicap debut- and she has an OK record with such types. Her 2/36 record with flat handicappers returning after 60 days tempers all out enthusiasm but worth a 1/4 EW to find out for me!
          GL

    1. Hi Mike

      Yes a qualifier for the Josephine Gordon angle was trading last night at around 2.66 and currently at 2.18
      her last 2 rides for Hugo Palmer have been heavily backed much shorter than the orignal forecast so it seems that this duo have been cottoned on to by the books….I’ll do a full review of the apprentice angles on the 01/09/2016 to see where they are heading but today a qualifier nethertheless

      1.50 Beverley Bithynia

      Cheers Steve

  3. My best bet today Cougar Mountain 7.30 Leop
    At the prices COUGAR MOUNTAIN looks the each-way value .Goes well here at Leopardstown ,having won this race last year on fast ground ,and also just touched off in Amethyst Stakes over C&D at Leopardstown in May .Odds around 5-1 look solid value .

  4. Not happy with a young girl riding BETTERLATETHANNEVA 3.00 Worcester but I took 10s..it’s shrinking now. 33% system bet.

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