Thanks all for your Birthday wishes, much appreciated. Thankfully I could provide one winner for us all to cheer and it was a +5 point day on the ‘tipping’ front.
NOTE: Some big race trends/stats for Saturday will be posted in the next couple of hours, Members Only. (or you can get a day pass and read the post if you wanted) Definitely the big handicap from Ripon and maybe one or two others.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Holy Cross – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/SB/BV/BetB) UP 3/1
This one looks a bit big given the trainer and jockey form. The ‘way in’ was the jockey/trainer combo here. Clearly this relationship is in its infancy but they are already 3/5 here, 2/3 in hurdles. Curtis’ stats here are 23/85,42 all runners, 10/44,18p in hurdles and 7/29,12p in non-handicap hurdles – 24% sr, +37 SP. Her maiden hurdle runners do turn up here to win (as well as the 20s pokes who dont) and hopefully this is another. It looks like he has been given time after a few starts last year, to strengthen up maybe. Anyway, he returned a few weeks ago and ran well, getting a bit out-paced before staying on. If you are running for a mark you don’t run like that for me. On the basis of that run the step up in trip should help – another positive.
So all in all, 10s looks a bit big. She has only had 1 runner in the last month, but that placed. There is a short priced Pipe one in here from France. Who knows how good that one will be, if any good at all. Happy to have a go at this one.
I was going to wait until the morning but this one stands out and I don’t need to ponder any more…
Black Sam – 1 point win- 9/2 (SkyB/BV/WH) 4/1 (general) 2nd 11/4
Given the stats I think 9/2 is more than fair here. Alan King is 3/8,5 places with stable newcomers in the last year, from other yards, 5/20,12 places in the last two years. He is 5/15,12 places in non handicaps at the track in the last 5 years, 1/2 in NHF races. Hutch is 4/9,8 places on the boss’s non-handicap runners here, including that NHF winner. The horse is related to bumper winners. The trainer is in cracking form- 5/17 in the last 14 days. The horse comes here off a long break but her last run did produce winners. I suppose there is an unknown over the ground but King wouldn’t run her if he didn’t think he should handle it I don’t think. Given his superb record with 1st time out bumper horses, I don’ think the break or fitness should be a concern. There may have been problems or they have just let her develop. 9/2 looks big enough given all the above and if we backed every horse at 9/2 when ticking all those boxes above, I think we would do ok long term.
That is all for today. I hope you got on Holy Cross last night, bookies got their pricing wrong with this one I think, whatever he does he was no 10s shot in this race. He will be recorded at 8s when he coasts home, I don’t think 10s lasted too long across the board but 8s was around for a few hours.
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
5.15 Salis: Alyssa (any odds) WON 5/6
6.05 Yarm: Duke of Diamonds (10/1<) 2nd 2/1
SPRINT HANDICAP TEST ZONE
(running total: 8/50, 12 places… +46.625)
None. I had a look at the Beverley sprint handicap but there are too many 3 year olds in there and then there are the jockeys. I also looked at the 6.35 Yarmouth but my word is that a poor race- awful – a proper pin job. Something will win but I have no idea which one.
TRAINERS IN FORM
A couple of jumps starting points today…
2.00 Worc- What Happens Now – (14,30) 7/2 WON 6/1
7.20 Stratford – Shantou Tiger – (14,30) 9/1 | Exemplary (14,30) 15/2
That is all for today.