Steve Wiseman,regular blog contributor, has kindly shared the various systems and strategies that he has discussed in the comments in recent days/weeks. I thought it would be helpful to put them all in one post for your convenience.
A few of my systems, and arguably my approach, may need some work and I find Steve’s approach fascinating – plenty there for me to take away, especially the flexibility and monitoring. There are a few interesting angles that are producing winners as I write (another for Ruth Carr has just gone in at Musselburgh).
So, do with these as you please. If you have a HorseRaceBase account or similar system building software, then add them in. Steve has been posting up qualifiers but I am sure there will be days he has off/can’t post.
Anyway, below follows what Steve has sent me
Please find below details of strategies highlighted
Ruth Carr 5 year olds
Jockey – James Sullivan,
Tracks – Ayr, Carlisle, Catterick, Musselburgh, Redcar, Southwell & Wetherby
Horse Age – Exactly 5
Year – 2016 only
Odds – up to 8/1 SP
17 bets 8 winners 11 places SR 47.06%, +27.2 SP
Keith Dalgleish / Philip Makin
Tracks – NOT Ascot & Wolverhampton
Race Distance – Between 1m 1f & 1m 2f
Horse Age – between 3 and 6
Year – 2016 only
27 bets 13 winners 17 places SR 48.15% +41.06 SP
(Please note There is a similar strategy for this but I’ve adjusted the original criteria of this system to suit what is happening in 2016 i:e not restricting it to GD / FM, using a *traffic light approach I’ll explain at the end )
Jamie Spencer / Luca Cumani
Race Class – 3, 4, 5 & 6 only
Odds up to 4/1
55 bets 30 winners 42 places SR 54.55% +17.77 SP
(I’ve included this one which dates back to 2003 – 2004 for 2 reasons its high strike rate and since 01/08/2015 they are 7 runners 7 winners including 1 yesterday, I’m sure the profits can be improved with taking early prices as these are well backed close to the off, Yesterday for example I was on at 3.05 but BFSP was 2.38)
Trainers – John Berry, Hugo Palmer & Malcolm Saunders
Odds – Up to 8/1 SP
Year – 2016 only
27 bets 13 winners 19 places SR 48.15% +47.3 SP
(The first of the apprentice angles again this one I’ll be using a *traffic light approach every month to see how its evolving as it could change quickly as other trainers want to use her)
Trainers – P J Mcbride & J J Quinn
Year – 2016
13 bets 7 winners 8 places SR 53.85% +34.25 SP
(As above a great young talent and I have no doubt that other trainers will be using him to success)
P J Mcbride (trainer)
Tracks – Beverley, Carlisle, Chelmsford City, Redcar, Warwick, Wolverhampton, Yarmouth & York.
Year – 2012 to date
Jockeys Claim – 5lb & 7lb
44 bets 15 winners 23 places SR 34.09% +95.88 SP
(With winners at 201 & 50/1 included Mr Mcbride clearly likes using good apprentices on his live ones…The first time out 2 year old yesterday touched 150/1 in the morning before going off at 36.6 on BF and without that slow break may well have won maybe?)
George Wood (7lb Claimer)
Year – 2016 only
Class – 6 only
Trainers – D E Cantillon, P Charalambous, B D Leavy, G L Moore, H Morrison &
Dr J D Scargill
11 bets 6 winners 8 places SR 54.55% +32.48 SP
(Just looked at this yesterday and even more relevant than the other apprentices other trainers will be using him for success I will explain the *traffic light process below)
The traffic light method I have mentioned throughout is a system where I can apply common sense but also incorporate a business plan. So my approach is look at something that’s working or has been working for a period of time (common sense) and then apply this for the current period either 1 month, 3 month, or 6 month. For example:
The Spencer / Cumani combo has worked for a number of years at over a 50% SR but I would want to keep reviewing this to see if this is still the same
now so I would apply a traffic light method that green would be 6 months, amber would be 3 and red would be 1. So for the example Spencer / Cumani it has been working for a long period of time I would then apply a green status and a date to check on its progress 6 months in advance. If after 6 months it has dropped below its normal standard I would apply an amber status to check again in 3 months and if it still is under performing I would then apply a red status to check again in 1 month…If it is still then under performing I would drop the strategy from the portfolio but keep the red status to check back every month to see if it turns round again. Also with this approach it allows me to check if the angle has changed to profit in another area like the Dalgleish / Makin one where a small change has kept the SR and profits high.
With the new strategies i:e the apprentices I have put these straight on to a red status to check their progress every month as undoubtedly these will move in different directions and I want to be able to quickly latch on to these profit streams as they do.
To make a profit I would suggest using what I have mentioned before I:e a bank of say £1000 staking at 2% of the rolling total of the portfolio.
I have currently 36 strategies and believe the portfolio approach is the way to go so when an angle is going through a cold spell the others will be holding it up until it swings around again. An example of one Is an angle I have for George Baker he had a period where he had 22 losers in a row so as a one off strategy there is no doubt this would lose confidence in the user but his overall SR is 30.42% and since 2008 using the staking plan above this would have grown to £38,813.67…I have much better examples but this one shows they are worth sticking with long term if passing the traffic light method.
Hope this info helps Josh love your work and more importantly to me your integrity, honesty and willingness for everyone to succeed, I would like to think I’m of the same Ilk and keep the great work going
Thanks Steve (and I didn’t pay him to say that last bit!)