You can ready my Weekly Diary post, with some thoughts on the ‘gamble’ – Maybe I am naive but I can’t see what all the fuss is about – as punters, all three winners were far from impossible to find… you can read that HERE>>>
The ‘stats/angle’ horse was disappointing yesterday – he was covered in sweat before the race and pulled hard early and looked very awkward- unsure if something was physically wrong. Anyway, that section continues to bob up and down as I have fluctuated between 0-24 points since it stated at the back end of May. Chaplin Bay was the winner of that Sandown race to rub salt into the gaping wound…. he entered the tracker at Ponte having ran very well given he was held up and had to come wide- highlighted in my sprint notes I think. He suffered the same NTO at Chester. I didn’t see much of an excuse at Musselburgh but maybe the track didn’t suit. Either way he won this cosily I think- he either doesn’t like getting his head in front and if so the jockey was superb, cajoling him to lead- or they fancy winning another handicap soon and didn’t want to win by too much. It was impressive again as he was held up and it wasn’t a frantic pace – he did well to close as he did and win. If only I had kept the faith on his 3rd run after entering the note book. The stiff finish clearly suited. Damn.
My tracking skills/following up clearly needs work. I missed A J Cook who won at 10s on next start after backing him for 3rd at 25/1. Hoof It entered the tracker early in the season after an eye-catching run at York. I haven’t tipped him up on either of his two wins this season. We can add Chaplin Bay to that list. Fair to say I could do better on that front! Work to do.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total… +14.5 points)
5.35 – Newmarket – Bequia – 1 point win – 10/1 (SB/BV/WH) 9/1 (general) 2nd*
*no excuses there, a decent run, just bumping into one better on the day. Took a little while to learn what the game was all about but certainly out-ran her odds. For a brief moment it looked exciting but sadly the leader kept finding!
With no form to go on in this maiden, this one is certainly all about the stats. Stats that should continue to pay over time and I am hoping so today. M Meade likes a first time out 2 year old winner- 3/12,6 places in the last year. He is 3/6, 5 places at the Newmarket tracks with such runners. 2/5, 3 places in all maiden races at the July course in the last 730 days. He is also in form which helps – 2/7, 4 places in the last 14 days. The jockey booking intrigued me- on closer inspection these two are 3/9, 4 places when teaming up, so no concerns on that front. This horse is related to plenty of decent speedy types and a few who won as 2 years olds. The market may well guide, or it may not- he has had some big priced 1st time 2 year olds go in. The question is the opposition – there are a few who are having second runs after decent enough maiden runs. They may be hard to beat but this ‘could be anything’ type has plenty going for her on paper and at 10s I couldn’t resist.
Fahey (any odds)
2.00 Muss – Geego- UP
3.30 Muss – Mustique- 2nd
7.20 Hayd- Our Boy John / Springwood
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
(quick Q… any backers of these know if the two winners yesterday.. 7/1 7/2 SP were bigger evening before/morning. I didn’t look until lunchtime…)
3.30 Muss – Mustique (any odds) 2nd
4.30 Muss – Gabrial The Terror UP
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
Merhoob – 1 point win – 15/2 (PP/BetfS) 7/1 (general) UP (+5.375 points on race)
Mehronissa – 1 point win – 8/1 (Boyle/Coral) 15/2 (Lad) 7/1 (general) WON 5/1 (15/2 declared, +6.375 points after 15p R4)
Well a case could be made for nearly all of them in this I think – but these races are getting like 3m+ handicap chases where I just can’t help myself! I think the pace may set it up for a closer here- well I am taking that chance. Solar Flair and Guishan both like to get on with it, there are others who have led and a few who like to push the pace. I may have that wrong -being near the front has been the place to be at this track this season – but I am hoping that one of these two can pick up the pieces on the climb to the line.
Merhoob – was an eye-catcher LTO at Ascot – he dwelt a bit, hit some traffic at the wrong time, and possibly came from the wrong side of the track. That was a big field, decent enough C3 handicap and I want to back him here. Ms Gordon gets the leg up which is no bad thing and she may eek out more here. If he can keep tabs in the first part of the race he shouldn’t be too far away. Like most in this race he has open to progress on the turf and all conditions look fine for a good run.
Mehronissa- the trainer is in decent form and this one is also open to progress, with some decent form in the book. I find it interesting that Freddy T is back on, arguably her ‘regular’ pilot who has ridden her for the last three rides. She won well at the back end of last season and on reappearance this season. She then ran well in a decent C2 at York where I think Jamie Spencer miss judged the pace (he does that, it’s how he rides straight tracks/sprints-likes to settle them,get them breathing and get them finishing- you pays your money and take your chance- I am a big fan- he is also one of the best around from the front.) He was closing all the way to the line, the winner having led all the way. They were two progressive 3 year olds in front of her also. In a small field race LTO, maybe on softer than ideal ground, she pulled too hard and was never going to get home. Freddy T has ridden her closer to the pace when riding her here, and hopefully he does the same again. She will like what I think will be a frantic pace and still has more to come. The break is a bit odd but at 7s not quite enough to put me off. I would just be guessing.
I won’t go into the others- you can make a case for plenty I won’t be shocked if another one wins. Most have time on their side, a few are doing a few things different. I think the ground may be too firm for a few. We shall see.
4.10 Brighton – looks interesting enough and VINCENTI WON goes for the in form Ron Harris team, 5/1. He was an eye-catcher LTO when held up out the back in a race won by the front runner. He had to switch wide around the outside and ran well all things considered. He is well handicapped on old form and is a CD winner. I have two concerns, in context of price- one being the ground. Fast is ok but he is better with cut. And also I have no idea where the pace is coming from here- there are no front runners in the race- a few who race handy, but I don’t know who will go on and of this will be run to suit. He can’t afford a slow start here and needs one of his more prominent rides. Maybe the lack of pace, on this ground,will help him keep tabs easier. I am torn. I won’t tip him but may throw 1/4 point or something at him to see. The other Harris runner at 16s will probably go in!! It looks a tricky contest.
Well, that was bitter sweet! What didn’t I predict/think about… that canny Ron Harris would use his other runner, same owner, to ensure this was run at a decent gallop to set it up for his closer!! Damn. I should have had more confidence, I hope some of you were not put off by my excruciating fence sitting! At least the race reading skills/spotting eye catchers etc is getting better. 6 points that got away maybe – yes I can hear the hindsight klaxon.
That is all for this section today.
TRAINERS IN FORM
I have yet to watch any racing from yesterday but a nice 16/1 winner for this section at Yarmouth. Glad to see some of you backed him. Around the houses today with 3 horses/trainers from 3 different tracks…
5.10 Brighton – Ask The Guru (14) 13/2- 3rd 5/1
7.10 Newmarket – Pure Vanity – (14,30,C1) 12/1 (handicap debut,hood,after a break,trainer jockey 3/12,8p in turf handicaps…) UP
8.30 Haydock – Kajaki (14)-9/2 – pace is interesting, *should* get an uncontested lead. WON 11/2