SUMMARY : Sprint ‘tips’ in the 5.05 Redcar and 7.10 Ayr, some Trainer in Form Notes, systems and Haydock/Newmarket notes. Post Complete. (10.28)
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None… No races that I like to ‘tip’ in – there is the Shergar Cup but there is the ‘jockey thing’ with that card and I think I would rather sit it out. I will have a look at The Dash but that will be in the test section if I do venture into it.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total… +13.5 points)
None today. Nothing jumping out stats wise as a ‘way in’ at a decent price.
Fahey (any odds)
7.40 Ayr – Ballesteros
4.45 Hayd- Spirit of Zeb / Canyari
5.15 Hayd- Pushkin Museum
2.40 – Newm – Heatongrad
5.50 Red – Lexis Hero
4.05 Asc- Kadrizzi
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
5.40 – Haidees Reflection
7.10 – Lady Cordie
8.40 – Heros Story
2.00 – Treasury Notes
4.45 – Ustinov
5.15 – Innocently
3.25 – Harwoods Valente
4.00 -Dutch Artist / Hard to Handel
5.05 – Dandyleekie / Highland Acclaim
1.45 Asct- Notarised (any odds- and has his usual jockey on!)
3.50 Newm- Beaverbrook (12/1<)
4.25 Newm- Farlow (16/1<)
8.20 Ling – Great Expectations (9/1<)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total: 7/41, 10 places… +49.625 points)
Meshardal – 2 points win – 8/1 (betfS) 7/1 (coral) 13/2 (bet365)
Steel River – 1 point EW- 20/1 (bet365/BFs)
Meshardal… Ruth Carr’s bigger priced one looks more interesting here. He has won off 85 last year and comes here off 74. He is handicapped to just drop in at some point, which he will do. He is 2/6,4 places in C4, 6f handicaps and it was the quick return which also caught my eye. He is 3/8,4 places returning within 10 days and that could be the thing that gets him closer here. I thought he ran with some promise LTO, coming into the race well on what turned out to be the wrong side, away from the action and possibly on the worse ground. He may also not have relished that stiff finish. I thought 8s was more than fair for this well handicapped horse, for a team in flying form. Now, he may not be 8s in general and I thought I would go hard with a 2 pointer. Maybe EW would be more wise but there we go.
Steel River- clearly more of a poke but looks interesting enough. There is a piece of form in the past at Thirsk which indicates he has the ability to win this. Trianer/jockey do well here in handicaps and the trainer is starting to hit some form again. It is however the first time hood which most caught my eye – the trainers record with 1st time hood runners… 1,1,6,2… and my word he does need it to work. He had no chance on his last race pulling the jockey’s arms out for about 4 furlongs I think- he was never going to get home. IF the hood works here and he settles he has the ability to win this. He is well enough handicapped, and even more so on some smart AW form. 20s just looked a bit to big for me to pass up given the above.
Chances can be given to a few but most are not doing anything differently from recent runs. I am happy to stick with these two in a race where nothing would be a total surprise. Carr’s more fancied runner may go in again but he doesn’t win very often and needs plenty to go right, pace wise.
I will decide on the two Haydock sprint handicaps in the morning,some initial thoughts below…
7.10 Ayr –
Blue Sonic – 1 pt EW – 13/2 (SkyB/BetB) 6/1 (general)
This one has been in my tracker and I suspect Nick below has got on at a slightly bigger price than this- but I think it looks fair. I had her in initially as a possible ‘profile’ horse, a class dropper. She racked up a hat-trick last year in a C6 and hasn’t raced at this level for his last 9 runs. She is 3/9,5 places in class 6 handicaps, opposed to 0/12, 2 places above this. The ground has come just perfect for her and back down to a decent mark this looks a good opportunity. She does need plenty to go her way on the pace front- but it looks like there are 3 or 4 or like to or can lead here so that looks spot on also. She caught the eye in a couple of sprints here on recent starts as one that looked to be coming into some form. A mixture of class, distance and going could be possible excuses for the last two runs. Back here over 6f, in a class 6, she looks a decent EW bet. I go EW because of her running style – the jockey may miss time it, the pace may not collapse, but I expect here to be right there, placing at worse.
Now to Haydock…
NO bets in either Haydock sprint handicap. If I were going to the track I would back Ustinov in the 4.45 but he is short enough for ‘tipping’ purposes, too short maybe in a race such as that.
In my rush last night, it looks like i have got Lydiate Lady a bit wrong – her run two starts ago was very soft but on her last run she had good to firm ground and under-performed- not sure why I thought it was heavy – but, without that excuse for the run it removed my main reason for backing her! It could be that Carlisle form just isn’t very good and I cant fail but notice that money has come for the top two. I will leave it, but hope she runs well. If he bolts up at 8s I may fee a bit sick but there is no obvious excuse for that last run – and actually, it may be she needs some cut.
(no views on Ascot, I will leave it)
TRAINERS IN FORM
A decent 11/2 winner from the three yesterday to continue the promise of this addition to our punting armoury. Some more trainer ‘in form’ starting points…
1.15 Ascot – Willy The Conqueror (14) 15/2 | Union Rose (14,30) 4/1
5.35 Redcar – Sigurd (14) 22/1 | Frosty The Snowman (14) 17/2
8.20 Lingfield – Surety (14,30,C1,C5) 5/1 | Billyoaks (14) 25/1
Bradders is off to Haydock for the day so I thought I would have had a quick look through. These notes are a very brief guide and a definite starting point! Usually when I quickly go through a card like this it ends in abject failure…
2.00- Stoute and Haggas are the only two trainers ‘in form’ in the race (14,30 the pair) The Haggas horse may be close to the pace, in a race that may lack loads. He would be my preference if I was at the track, with a nibble on the Stoute runner who I have backed at Ascot already this season. Compensation here maybe.
2.35 – Hmm – good luck. Maybe Multelle will try and ake all… (pace a bit of a puzzle here, race is there for the taking of one wants to dictate)
3.10 – Red Box – only C1 winner in the field so far I believe. Trainer is in form (14/30). The Gosden ‘could be anything’ horse- Laugh Aloud- is interesting from a pace perspective – She led all the way on her maiden and with no obvious front runners in here, maybe they will try the same. He pitches her into a deep level here on the back of a maiden which is interesting enough. She may not be good enough of course.
3.45- errr, no. How about the favourite?! Not my bag at all.
4.15 – Gershwin- trainer/jockey are 3/4,4 places in handicaps at the track. Looks to be a fair bit of pace on paper in this which will suit Baker’s usual style.
4.45 – Ah more like it… Ustinov- was an eye-catcher last time out in a ‘test race’- first run after a long lay-off, he stayed on well from out the back in a race where you had to be near the front. Isn’t looking like a race I will tip in but depends on his price. 7/2 – 11/2 the range at the moment, could be EW bet to nothing. He looks the most interesting in this to me. However, bar Barkston Ash, this race is packed full of lightly raced types who could all be better than what they have shown to date. Looks tricky, but OMeara’s would be the one for me.
5.15 – Lydiate Lady 11/2 – I think this one could be an EW bet to nothing, (i think, after some though, I may or may not have this one wrong!) or a more daring win only bet. She was impressive at Carlisle and travelled so well into the race here the last day. The ground was ‘officially’ bordering on the heavy side and I think she just failed to pick up in the ground.(it wasn’t,that was two runs ago) I expect another bold show- plenty more to come possibly. The top weight is best on the ratings (obviously!) but he has gone up 9lb for that Yarmouth win. Impressive but maybe a bit harsh. Booking of Baker catches the eye though.
I am off to the course and I go more hopeful than expectant but lets have a flick through….
Well this looks a tricky puzzle of a day but a few that caught they eye…
2.05 – Well I will be trying to use my eyes in the paddock on this one. Balding/Sir Michael/Appleby are all ‘in form’ Maybe the Godolphin runner
2.40- Law Power interesting given connections and profile. Trainer won this in 2012,2013 and he is in form. Salouen looks interesting for an in form trainer also, and jockey booking looks interesting.
3.15- blimey- Easy Victory maybe…as much heart as head having backed him at July Festival at decent odds using my July Meeting Notes.
3.50 – Balding is in form so Passover looks interesting- a chance he could get an uncontested lead also but that may depend on what the Johnston horses do – Beaverbrook looks well fancied dropping in trip.
4.25 – this looks tricky – pace wise, Accession and Ifwecan look interesting. A chance both could be up there/dictating. Maybe one will stay there all the way.
5.00- Market suggests Daily Bulletin is taking this and he is entered up well. He could be much better than this mark and blow them away. Maybe Galvanise is the EW bet to nothing
5.30 – a short priced Sir Mark runner who stays well and could lead these all the way. Stetchworth Park is interesting on the speed figures, stamina the main concern I think.
Right, that will do for today’s meandering post. Hopefully something there for you to get stuck into/use in your punting endeavours.