I believe the new blog is up but I am sure there will be the odd initial teething problem along the way and things I will improve on in time- ie the comments are a hard to read shade of grey- unless that is just my eyes- I will have a look at that. I am also unsure if it is working on mobile yet…
I should add that if you comment- when you comment for the first time I have to approve it. I think this changeover may have re-set everything so if your comment takes time to appear, then apologies.
Oh…and you should be able to share posts now as well, if you have facebook/twitter etc as below. Spreading the word would be appreciated and it only takes a couple of seconds. Thanks in advance… 🙂
Anyway, due to a long/late evening last night there is just the one horse in the 3.45 on these pages. I have ran out of time to do the 2.00pm justice.
RED PIKE – 1 point EW – 33/1 general, 5 places now in plenty of places, 6 places SkyBet *
*ah well he wasn’t good enough on the day to win this, the Andrew Balding ‘saver’ horse clearly a bit in hand and a potential group horse, which was always a possibility. He did get badly squeezed twice, losing all momentum the second time, at a crucial stage – it is possibly that cost a top 5 finish but I cant say that for certain. Kicking myself a bit for not looking at the 2.00 pm properly as the pace/draw shortlist as below highlighted the 1st and 2nd and from that list they had the best recent form.
Well I just can’t get away from Pace pace pace, draw draw draw here. (Having just said that those drawn 5-9 are 0/92,12 places but that could just be an anomaly as not too much logical sense for that) All the evidence from this week suggests that you want to be drawn low here, and as I watch the racing on Friday afternoon that is the case again. Take Cover broke like a greyhound (to borrow a Steve Mellish term) and moved across to the far side. Boom The Groom won from low despite all the pace being high and those having the run of the race. He ended up near side but that was a sign of things to come. It looks like the jockeys have made up their mind also that the far side is the place to be. So, I think he will be in the right place, and, provided he breaks on terms, should be right up there from the off.
This 5 year old is rapid from the gate and has the biggest geegeez speed figure in the race. At some point he could be better than anything he has shown to date. He is drawn to attack and it is his first run on this kind of speedy downhill track. The trainer is in form and he has run well after this kind of break. For a big race like this, that kind of break may suggest this has been a plan/target. Of course there may have been a problem but I will take that chance. He has placed in decent enough class two handicaps and ran well over 5f in a conditions race, getting outpaced late. He was beaten by Line of Reason there who is a good enough yardstick,a decent horse.
Ultimately I just thought 33s/25s looked big given what we know about the track here this week,the importance of early pace, his draw, and his own early blistering pace. He still has time on his side, has been running well, and has some decent enough form in the book – while maybe not matching what some of these have done yet. He looked interesting to me.
There were a few trends and stats but they don’t help too much. He ticks the boxes on the ones I did look at at least.
Maybe something high will win but it looks like they may struggle and I would also struggle to back them for those reasons above. There are two decent 6/1 shots at the top of the market and I may have a saver on Andrew Baldings mount who is in the right place also and will track the pace. Ride Ranger also likes to get on with it and could help force the pace. Her and Red Pike should take them along. Hopefully Red Pike can get away a little bit and fend off the closers who will come late. If he can hold on for a place at worse that would be super, and would be like backing one of the shorties to win anyway. It is clearly a bit speculative but he should be up there for 5 furlongs or so and after that who knows!
What do you like? Clearly in a race like this you can make a case for a few.
THAT WILL BE IN FOR ‘TIPS’ ON SATURDAY. If I have time I will look at the consolation race in the test section. There are some interesting stats/trend that I posted and if any of you are kind enough to post a shortlist (if there is indeed one, they may not knock out any) that would be great! 🙂
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Day off today.
Meehan Maidens (any odds) (still yet to do anything this season, maybe he doesn’t have the horses this year/changed approach)
5.55 Ling- Suffrah
7.00 Ling – Stop The Wages
TTP:MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
3.00 – Hot Spice UP
4.10 – Strong Man DNQ
Goodwood (any odds)
2.35 – Beaverbrook UP/ Regal Monarch UP
4.55 – Whitman
6.00 – Bathos
7.15 – Magical Lasso
8.45 – Falcons Fire
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
Day off today.
Looks like middle to low, prominent racers is the place to be then...The 2.00pm looks a puzzle and I have run out of time to do it justice. It will hopefully be a pointer to the 3.45. Of those drawn on the low side and who race prominently… Related/Seeking Magic/Grandad’s World/Hoof It/Sole D’Leau. Interesting if any of them try and do a Take Cover.
Well done to Leon and Nick who were strong on the Kevin Ryan Sprint winner – I got that race wrong, they got it rather right so well done. I haven’t watched the races but it appears I loaned 6 points back to the bookies.
That is all for today. Hopefully any of you who have been using the Goodwood/Galway Notes have found a few winners. They have pointed the way to a few winners this week including a couple for Sir Michael Stoute yesterday and a couple for Tony Martin yesterday also I think.