FREE DAILY POST: 30/07/16 (COMPLETE)

 

I believe the new blog is up but I am sure there will be the odd initial teething problem along the way and things I will improve on in time- ie the comments are a hard to read shade of grey- unless that is just my eyes- I will have a look at that. I am also unsure if it is working on mobile yet…

I should add that if you comment- when you comment for the first time I have to approve it. I think this changeover may have re-set everything so if your comment takes time to appear, then apologies.

Oh…and you should be able to share posts now as well, if you have facebook/twitter etc as below. Spreading the word would be appreciated and it only takes a couple of seconds. Thanks in advance… ūüôā¬†

Anyway, due to a long/late evening last night there is just the one horse in the 3.45 on these pages. I have ran out of time to do the 2.00pm justice.

 

***

TIPS

3.45 Goodwood

RED PIKE – 1 point EW ¬†‚Äď 33/1 general, 5 places now in plenty of places, 6 places SkyBet *

*ah well he wasn’t good enough on the day to win this, the Andrew Balding ‘saver’ horse clearly a bit in hand and a potential group horse, which was always a possibility. He did get badly squeezed twice, losing all momentum the second time, at a crucial stage – it is possibly that cost a top 5 finish but I cant say that for certain. Kicking myself a bit for not looking at the 2.00 pm properly as the pace/draw shortlist as below highlighted the 1st and 2nd and from that list they had the best recent form.¬†

Well I just can’t get away from Pace pace pace, draw draw draw here. (Having just said that those drawn 5-9 are 0/92,12 places but that could just be an anomaly as not too much logical sense for that) All the evidence from this week suggests that you want to be drawn low here, and as I watch the racing on Friday afternoon that is the case again. Take Cover broke like a greyhound (to borrow a Steve Mellish term) and moved across to the far side. Boom The Groom won from low despite all the pace being high and those having the run of the race. He ended up near side but that was a sign of things to come. It looks like the jockeys have made up their mind also that the far side is the place to be. So, I think he will be in the right place, and, provided he breaks on terms, should be right up there from the off.¬†

This 5 year old is rapid from the gate and has the biggest geegeez speed figure in the race. At some point he could be better than anything he has shown to date. He is drawn to attack and it is his first run on this kind of speedy downhill track. The trainer is in form and he has run well after this kind of break. For a big race like this, that kind of break may suggest this has been a plan/target. Of course there may have been a problem but I will take that chance. He has placed in decent enough class two handicaps and ran well over 5f in a conditions race, getting outpaced late. He was beaten by Line of Reason there who is a good enough yardstick,a decent horse. 

Ultimately I just thought 33s/25s looked big given what we know about the track here this week,the importance of early pace, his draw, and his own early blistering pace. He still has time on his side, has been running well, and has some decent enough form in the book Рwhile maybe not matching what some of these have done yet. He looked interesting to me. 

There were a few trends and stats but they don’t help too much. He ticks the boxes on the ones I did look at at least.¬†

Maybe something high will win but it looks like they may struggle and I would also struggle to back them for those reasons above. There are two decent 6/1 shots at the top of the market and I may have a saver on Andrew Baldings mount who is in the right place also and will track the pace. Ride Ranger also likes to get on with it and could help force the pace. Her and Red Pike should take them along. Hopefully Red Pike can get away a little bit and fend off the closers who will come late. If he can hold on for a place at worse that would be super, and would be like backing one of the shorties to win anyway. It is clearly a bit speculative but he should be up there for 5 furlongs or so and after that who knows! 

What do you like? Clearly in a race like this you can make a case for a few. 

***

THAT WILL BE IN FOR ‘TIPS’ ON SATURDAY. If I have time I will look at the consolation race in the test section. There are some interesting stats/trend that I posted and if any of you are kind enough to post a shortlist (if there is indeed one, they may not knock out any) that would be great! ūüôā¬†

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Day off today. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Meehan Maidens (any odds) (still yet to do anything this season, maybe he doesn’t have the horses this year/changed approach)¬†

5.55 Ling- Suffrah 

7.00 Ling РStop The Wages 

TTP:MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Thirsk (28/1<) 

3.00 – Hot Spice UP

4.10 – Strong Man DNQ

Goodwood (any odds) 

2.35 – Beaverbrook UP/ Regal Monarch UP

4.55 РWhitman 

6.00 РBathos 

Hamilton (any) 

7.15 РMagical Lasso 

8.45 РFalcons Fire 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

Day off today. 

Looks like middle to low, prominent racers is the place to be then...The 2.00pm looks a puzzle and I have run out of time to do it justice. It will hopefully be a pointer to the 3.45. Of those drawn on the low side and who race prominently… Related/Seeking Magic/Grandad’s World/Hoof It/Sole D’Leau. Interesting if any of them try and do a Take Cover.

Well done to Leon and Nick who were strong on the Kevin Ryan Sprint winner – I got that race wrong, they got it rather right so well done. I haven’t watched the races but it appears I loaned 6 points back to the bookies.

***

That is all for today. Hopefully any of you who have been using the Goodwood/Galway Notes have found a few winners. They have pointed the way to a few winners this week including a couple for Sir Michael Stoute yesterday and a couple for Tony Martin yesterday also I think.

 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

15 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • I had it narrowed down to Kimberella, Growl, Moonraker and Red Pike from the trends although haven’t looked at the pace angle yet and tempted to swerve this Saturday given my form right now. (You know its bad when you back something in a hurdle race and it halves in price and falls at the first hurdle!)

    Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


    • Duke of Firenze has had a mini rest and is back to run downhill, which he prefers, so 40/1!

      Martin Colwell 1 year ago Reply


      • Matin
        Got 50/1 Betway. 9.15pm

        Mike Dennis 1 year ago Reply


        • Hope you had the five places with Duke of Firenze? Nice dividend paid. This horse will pay you off two or three times a year at the right tracks.

          Martin Colwell 1 year ago Reply


          • Top work Martin, well done. A nice 66/1 placer.

            Josh 1 year ago Reply


      • I was just putting up those which fit the trends Josh did. Personally decided there are better bets elsewhere so nothing in the race from me. If I had to pick one it would be Growl but not happy with the draw.

        I clearly did enough to whinge Kibaar in earlier so nice to get my first winner since last Saturday.

        Tomorrow I am having a bet on Mukaynis (which ties in with the Duke of Firenze form) and Soie Dleau in the Sprint

        Elsewhere also like Duke Cosimo and Comino at Thirsk and Signore Piccolo at Hamilton

        Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


  • Josh skybet 6 places e.w.in stewards cup

    Paul 1 year ago Reply


  • That WINTERS bet in the 6.15 Galway is sending me cross-eyed!!!

    Jarrod 1 year ago Reply


  • Bet Alchemist crew tip Hoof It 22/s, Barnet Fair 14/s, the Racing Post tip El Viento 50/s, who just happen to be the cdg 1,2,3 for the 2.00 Good.

    Take Cover was the cdg2 yesterday,

    Andy Silvers 1 year ago Reply


  • 3rd time lucky for this comment? Must’ve been while the changeover – dig the new look!

    The guys at Bet Alchemist tip Hoof It 22/s & Barnet Fair 14/s while the Racing Post go for El Viento 50/s who just happen to be the CDG 1,2,3 in named order.

    They’re saying 4/7 for box’s 1-12 for the Stewards Cup – when three times last 5 years high draws have won it?

    Low draws have had a good week & 3 from 5 in the consolation race…. Looks a day for some small stake EW fun bets?

    AJS 1 year ago Reply


  • Josh love the new layout very professional

    Tomo 1 year ago Reply


  • Thanks for the comments re Kibaar Josh, well done to those on – these sprint handicaps are damn hard to call at times so nice to get a winner there.
    Loving the new layout of the site so far Josh.
    Away from Goodwood, a horse that has popped up in my tracker and appears overpriced is Hidden Rebel in the Summer Cup at Thirsk (16.10).
    This horse ran a cracking race in a class 2 fillies handicap at Newmarket 2 weeks back, finishing her race off well to be a 3 length 4th to the 88 rated Golden Stunner who was completing a hatrick for R Beckett and looks a mid 90 rated filly. In second was Hannons Baharaah (97) who has since finished a neck second to Spangled (now rated 99).
    The lack of pace in front that day probably put paid to her chances as the race was ran fairly moderately for this ones hold up style.
    There seems to be a bit more pace in todays race for this one to track with Strong Man, Rousayan and Boots and Spurs likely to race prominently. If this ones in touch coming round the bend i’m hoping she can see off her rivals and atleast nick a place at 18/1. She also has the second highest Speed fig rating behind Boots n Spurs (Geegeez gold) though i’m not too sure how they calculate these ratings?
    Again this looks another tough race to judge, with Altharoos who won the race last year back to its last win mark in this last year and also 2/3 at the course, Ginger Jack is 7lb lower in the rating than when a close up 6th in this last year and is 7lb better off with Altharoos this time around for a 2 length defeat when possibly given a little too much to do, whilst Beardwood can be respected now stepping up which looks like will suit judging by its finish in his last two runs and now in the care of Mr Johnston!!
    Thoughts and comments appreciated as always.
    Leon

    Leon 1 year ago Reply


  • Decent new layout.Any others that want to have a look at some free stuff can go to the website above.Between us all..we can win!

    Gaz 1 year ago Reply


  • Rushed again today…..so missed out..surely hawatiif in the 4.55 should have been in with Whitman…rushing I saw only Whitman….bugger!!

    Missed our Duke of Firenze also Martin. Grrrr!

    Tony Mc. 1 year ago Reply


    • Ah shame you missed the Johnston one, esp when backing the other! Bugger. Annoying when life gets in the way haha – I’m annoyed I didn’t give/plan/have any time for 2.00- May have been close to one or both of first two. Annoying, but there we go.

      Josh 1 year ago Reply


Post A Reply