ALL ‘TIPPING’ CONTENT NOW COMPLETE (as of 9.28)
2.45 Bangor –
Gray Hession – 1 point win – 20/1 (betfS) 16/1 (general) * PU (something went wrong early)
*oh well that is a shame. Let’s hope the horse is ok. He travelled well in behind the pace early and jumped the first few well, before being pulled up sharply. Not much more to say about that one really. That’s racing. Let’s hope it is nothing serious.
It is quite possible I have taken leave of my senses here but at the price I think a chance can be taken on this one. If no money arrives I suspect that will be one more point down the drain but I just couldn’t resist. So, why…
- Well firstly I couldn’t bring myself to back anything else. There is nothing at a single figure price that I could back with confidence for me. And, I can make some sort of case for this one…
- He is 3/7 in handicap chases and will improve again at some point no doubt. During the summer of last year he progressed well to win three handicap chases, including a class 2 (a ‘summer’ class two admittedly,but still) He was then pitched into a listed handicap chase where he ran ok, but ultimately struggled. He went up to a mark of 141 after that run and three runs later comes here off 125. I suppose that may say something for his ‘regression’…
- Three starts ago was after a break in a decent enough chase. He was pulled up. He hasn’t done much at Stratford or Aintree since. There is a chance he didn’t like the rain softened ground. There is a chance that, like a lot of Jonjo’s, he may have had something wrong with him. He has been hot and cold for some time, suggesting issues. But, recently, things have been picking up. His runners in the last 4 days… 1,10,4,10,4,1,9,3,2,15,6,3. So, enough are running ok.
- The horse has had a break of 49 days. He has worn a tongue tie before. I wonder if he has had an op, or whether they have done something with him during that time. Or they have been waiting for better ground. Maybe Jonjo is running him over this trip to sharpen him up- that is the other IF, stamina. His winning form to date has been over 2m4f. His sire gives some hope, as does the way he has ran over 2m4f. But, he has that to prove. He also gets first time cheekpieces here and there is a chance that they could spark him up. They could not. They may need to.
- Jonjo does very well here with his handicap chasers and is 4/9, 5 places with Richie up top in such races at the track. The jockey knows the horse well.
So, in truth there are a few questions, but also a few reasons why we may see a better show and why 16s may appear big. He has been badly out of form and maybe it is stupid to go for one with this profile in a race with a few progressive/in form rivals around. But, if he did stay, and bounced back to last summers form, I think he would beat this lot. For those reasons 16s was worth a nibble. A speculative dart. I am on the fence with this one, I can feel the splinters, but I didn’t want to shirk it. If this was Nov-Feb when everything was dropping in, I would have had a go, much like I should have done with Kilcascan.
The rest – well most of the recent form of this lot has been in weak races and they all have some sort of question to answer here, and as such I couldn’t tempt myself into one at a shorter price. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the top 6 won, which one should win is a bit of a head-scratcher. Dreamsoftheatre may follow up after my criminal act of leaving him LTO – he did win a C2 at Cartmel but his record in C3s is 0/11, 2 places and that may have been an anomaly. But then he is the highest rated chaser in the race. The 64 day break is a bit odd. He can be moody and Johnson had to be at his best LTO. BallyKnock Lad is a monkey also and that chase he won at Wincanton was poor, against some out of form horses for me. I would want to see more. Unexposed though, fit and in form from a hurdles win. Degooch is also unexposed but he also has a big stamina question. Strumble Head is getting on and picked up what turned out to be a weak enough chase at Stratford. He steps up in class again her and is now 0/5, 1 p at the track. His recent winning form has been over further and may get outpaced here in the latter stages. Not impossible though. Boyfromnowhere needs a bit more but may come on from the last run. He was formally rated quite high but needs to prove he is up to this level now. He also likes a proper stamina test- his best form over further. Schindler’s Prince may just be progressing at a rate of knots but he has been beating up shoddy novice handicap chase fields for me. He is in the form of his life for an 11 year old. 3s felt short enough. He may thrash them but I’m not sure. The others have a few questions now. Distracted was just a bit too poor LTO for me and is stepping up in class. If some money came I may take note. This is a weak C3 though.
So, we shall see. Like I said I was happy to have a dart. You may think I mad though.
THAT IS THE ONLY TIP TODAY IN THIS SECTION.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total: +16.5 points)
Meehan Maidens (any odds)
6.00 Bath – Son castello
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM
5.15 Thirsk – Space War (28/1<)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total: 5/29, 8 places…+48.85 points)
Lexington Place – 1 point EW– 12/1 (Bet365/BV/SJ/WH)
Pearl Acclaim – 1 point EW – 11/1 (bet365/BV/PP/Lad)
This looks a mighty fine puzzle but I do like trying to get stuck into these sprints. We will probably be throwing a blanket over most of the field come the end of the race. There will be hard luck stories etc etc. At the prices, to use that tired phrase on these pages, these are the two I wanted to go with. I think they are bigger than they should be.
Lexington Place – Well he is in really good form and I can’t work out why he is this big. He can be a slow starter but that hasn’t stopped him winning here before. While not loads of front runners on paper there are enough pace-pushers and it should be run at a decent enough clip. He will need luck but I thought from stall 9 he may be able to maneuver into the centre, rather than get stuck behind some up the rail. That Ayr win was impressive and a shade cosy-he came from right out the back – maybe they did go too hard up top but he showed some turn of foot to win that. It was snug in the end. A repeat of that puts him right in the mix here. Ponte- you can put a line through that, he fell out of the stalls and was always behind. One place you don’t want to be this season on decent ground is out the back at Ponte. That was a decent enough race and he cut through/stayed on late to suggest he is still in form and was hardly given a hard time. Jockey couldn’t ever be arsed to grab 3rd, which I am sure he could have done with a tad more effort. 12s was just too big. He may get cut up but hopefully places at worse.
Pearl Acclaim – is a frustrating bugger who I feel like I have been tracking for an age- last year, I forget which race, he hit major traffic and I kept an eye on him. He didn’t do much after that. Now, he doesn’t win very often but he has won here over CD in a decent C3. There are a lot of CD winners in here which means you can look at some race times. Now, what with ground, and how the races are run, they are only a guide, but interesting. He won his 5f race here, on good to firm in 57.53 seconds. Fumbo Jumbo won his good to firm race here, 5f, in 58.15. Economic C won hers here in 0.58.1. Now, there may have been rail movements etc etc and that may not be useful. The ‘good’ ground winners (expect slower time) over CD – Lexington P (1m.02 s) , Classy Anne (1m.1.6s). I am sure some time gurus out there may have thoughts on that lot – they may not be useful, but interesting anyway. Back to the horse- well he is edging down the weights, has the ability to win this, and has been running well. On his last run he crossed over from a low stall right to the inner. A good piece of jockeyship but that would have cost ground and energy. Maybe he won’t overturn the form with Desert Ace (whose saddle slipped and would have gone closer) but he is twice the price. Box 1 is a slight concern also but I think he could get out and get a position. Horses have won from that stall over CD goood/good to firm. Not impossible, just far from ideal. This jockey has won on him and he likes the CD. In that Classy Anne race (2 starts ago) he had 9-12 on his back. He has 9st here. That caught the eye also. Even though over 5f, that must make some difference.
Of the rest- well chances for plenty. The market hasn’t missed Desert Ace (obvious chance I think) maybe 11/2 is fair but I will leave him. Olivia Fallow is interesting but I don’t like that break for a sprinter (a developing thought, not researched, I should!) 41 days. Unsure and that puts me off at, you guessed it, the prices. Fumbo Jumbo has a chance getting an allowance. Has been running well and could be more to come. Gets 5lb off back. Very unlucky LTO- but the problem was that she couldn’t hold a position and got out-paced in the middle section, that caused her to hit trouble and go wide. From 12 she could get stuck behind a wall of horses again here. But, a win wouldn’t shock me.
Kibaar – it appears a few of you like him and there isn’t much to say for me to put you off. Personally I wonder if he has the speed for this test at this track. There were no excuses two starts ago that I could see (he was keen for a time also, unsure if headgear will help,may light him up further) I just didn’t have the pace to go with them when asked. All of his best 2yo form was over 6f, and they ran him over that, in a decent race, LTO. Maybe, with first time headgear, they will blast him out and try and make all this time- that is a possibility and he could well do it. Maybe a small ‘saver’ nibble for me. Ryan’s record with horses in cheekpieces could be better also 12/169,45 places in flat handicaps- 0/23, 4 places in 5f handicaps. There may not be much in that. He is entitled to run his race, esp if ever recapturing his juvenile form.
So, we shall see how these go. It looks an intriguing little contest run on good/good to firm. (that latter desc may do for Classy Anne I think,if there is enough firm around)
BUNCE- 1 point EW – 9/1 (Betfred/SJ/WH) 8/1 (general)
9s feels too big for this one and fingers crossed there isn’t another non-runner. After ilness troubles in the yard for some time Ms Perratt’s horses are finally coming back to themselves and she is the only trainer ‘in form’ in the race. I have watched that run two starts ago- i believe Gary P tipped him at 50/1 there and I can see why he was a sick as a dog post race. With more luck in running he would have gone very close, and to not place was the salt in the wound. He go no sort of run for most of the latter furlong and when he got space flew in the last 50 yards or so. A repeat of that run puts him in the mix. I don’t know what happened the last day but he came from 1 and the jockey never really got him tucked in. That was good to firm all over and maybe he was taken off his feet/didn’t put down when asked. The other stand out was the fact he drops into C6 from those C4s. He is 0/2,2 places in this grade. Now the jockey- he is 0/33, 5 places on the trainers horses. Gulp. But, he has placed on this one, from two rides, which is fin- and he is 9/1. Finally, he gets the pace set up- there are three or four who like to get on with this and it may collapse. It may not but he will appreciate it. Hopefully he can lay up closer and finish fast, late. The fav has a good chance. In form, speedy- had some form with Laughton last September and he won at Goodwood yesterday. She faces older horses here and is in box 1- will have to use up a bit to get out and across. Summer Isles likes to be up there – the break was a slight concern- wouldn’t be shocked if she won though but a question. Mininggold is unexposed and prominent in the market – trainer only 4/67 last two weeks- not exactly banging them in. The others look up against it.
So, 9s seems a bit harsh here and he has plenty of form, inc two starts ago, that would put him in the mix. Maybe the young progressive ones are too young and progressive, but there is only one way to find out in this great game.
THAT IS ALL FOR THIS SECTION.
TRAINERS IN FORM
Malcolm is off to Thirsk, as below, so I thought I would have a look there to see if any ‘trainers in form’ stood out (when 1 or 2 trainers only have the geegeez green ’14’ or ’30’ indicating their runners have been going well in the last 14 or 30 days. This is a starting point and a bit of a test but it has pointed to some decent winners and placed horses to date, and a few losers. Let’s see how we get on today…)
2.20 – Nile Empress – 9/4 (14) UP
2.55- Imperial State (14) 2/1 WON| Hilltop Ranger (14) 12/1 UP | Mr Lucas (14) 33/1 3rd (cheating with 3 in this one!)
3.30 – Sirajiah (14, C5) 5/2
4.40 – Lady Canford (14,30) 8/1
5.15 – Fyrecracker (14) 9/4 | Llewellyn 12/1 & Bold Spirit 9/1 (same trainer, 14,30)
GOODWOOD+ GALWAY NOTES
Well a few winners scattered around from various stats – of course I omitted the other Mouse Morris runner who won at 100/1. Yes you read that correctly. You could have just followed the stats – 10 runners last 5 festivals, 3 had won. He was also ‘in form’ in the last two weeks. Looking at him on paper you wouldn’t have backed him. I didn’t. He did the other stats horse in a photo. Damn. (I did back that one for De Bromhead at 5s)
At Goodwood Johnston’s only main micro qualifier came an agonising 3rd at 25/1 having blown the start. And he had the 1,23, in the nursery,with an 8/1 winner. Given how his 2 years olds had gone so far, and his horses in general, that was no surprise. He has upped his game with the two year olds here this season I think.
2.35 – Stoutes are interesting, 9/2 or shorter a guide. The types of runners he does well here with. 1st and 2nd
4.20- Johnston’s – after yesterday probably all worth a look = they don’t tick many stats/angles from the notes, bar the topweight, number 1.
4.55 – The Haggas runner is interesting here, ticks a couple of stats for his types of winners here.
5.30 – Poest’s Word -again a typical Stoute type here. 3 year old only race, top 4 LTO, 9/2<
Johnston has a few others dotted about that I wouldn’t discount, but on the stats at least, they have work to do.
5.10 – Heartbreak City for Martin- ticks a few boxes and his jumpers going off 9/2 or shorter… 6/11, 6 places.
8.15 – Our Sox – again for Martin, 16/1. His national hunt handicappers with 0-5 wins to name before this year- 8/25, 11 places
Lettermacaward – 20/1- Winters doesn’t run many here but was 3/7, 4 places (+9SP) at meeting before this year. Profits suggest most were fancied, but you never know.
8.50 – Both of Martin’s again- 10/23, 16 places with his flat handicappers aged 5 or younger. +4- SP.
No doubt I may have missed the odd other one.
POST COMPLETE: 09.53