2.45 Bangor – 

Gray Hession – 1 point win – 20/1 (betfS) 16/1 (general) * PU (something went wrong early)

*oh well that is a shame. Let’s hope the horse is ok. He travelled well in behind the pace early and jumped the first few well, before being pulled up sharply. Not much more to say about that one really. That’s racing. Let’s hope it is nothing serious. 

It is quite possible I have taken leave of my senses here but at the price I think a chance can be taken on this one. If no money arrives I suspect that will be one more point down the drain but I just couldn’t resist. So, why…

  • Well firstly I couldn’t bring myself to back anything else. There is nothing at a single figure price that I could back with confidence for me. And, I can make some sort of case for this one…
  • He is 3/7 in handicap chases and will improve again at some point no doubt. During the summer of last year he progressed well to win three handicap chases, including a class 2 (a ‘summer’ class two admittedly,but still) He was then pitched into a listed handicap chase where he ran ok, but ultimately struggled. He went up to a mark of 141 after that run and three runs later comes here off 125. I suppose that may say something for his ‘regression’…
  • Three starts ago was after a break in a decent enough chase. He was pulled up. He hasn’t done much at Stratford or Aintree since. There is a chance he didn’t like the rain softened ground. There is a chance that, like a lot of Jonjo’s, he may have had something wrong with him. He has been hot and cold for some time, suggesting issues. But, recently, things have been picking up. His runners in the last 4 days… 1,10,4,10,4,1,9,3,2,15,6,3. So, enough are running ok. 
  • The horse has had a break of 49 days. He has worn a tongue tie before. I wonder if he has had an op, or whether they have done something with him during that time. Or they have been waiting for better ground. Maybe Jonjo is running him over this trip to sharpen him up- that is the other IF, stamina. His winning form to date has been over 2m4f. His sire gives some hope, as does the way he has ran over 2m4f. But, he has that to prove. He also gets first time cheekpieces here and there is a chance that they could spark him up. They could not. They may need to. 
  • Jonjo does very well here with his handicap chasers and is 4/9, 5 places with Richie up top in such races at the track. The jockey knows the horse well. 

So, in truth there are a few questions, but also a few reasons why we may see a better show and why 16s may appear big. He has been badly out of form and maybe it is stupid to go for one with this profile in a race with a few progressive/in form rivals around. But, if he did stay, and bounced back to last summers form, I think he would beat this lot. For those reasons 16s was worth a nibble. A speculative dart. I am on the fence with this one, I can feel the splinters, but I didn’t want to shirk it. If this was Nov-Feb when everything was dropping in, I would have had a go, much like I should have done with Kilcascan. 

The rest – well most of the recent form of this lot has been in weak races and they all have some sort of question to answer here, and as such I couldn’t tempt myself into one at a shorter price. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the top 6 won, which one should win is a bit of a head-scratcher. Dreamsoftheatre may follow up after my criminal act of leaving him LTO – he did win a C2 at Cartmel but his record in C3s is 0/11, 2 places and that may have been an anomaly. But then he is the highest rated chaser in the race. The 64 day break is a bit odd. He can be moody and Johnson had to be at his best LTO. BallyKnock Lad is a monkey also and that chase he won at Wincanton was poor, against some out of form horses for me. I would want to see more. Unexposed though, fit and in form from a hurdles win. Degooch is also unexposed but he also has a big stamina question. Strumble Head is getting on and picked up what turned out to be a weak enough chase at Stratford. He steps up in class again her and is now 0/5, 1 p at the track. His recent winning form has been over further and may get outpaced here in the latter stages. Not impossible though. Boyfromnowhere needs a bit more but may come on from the last run. He was formally rated quite high but needs to prove he is up to this level now. He also likes a proper stamina test- his best form over further. Schindler’s Prince may just be progressing at a rate of knots but he has been beating up shoddy novice handicap chase fields for me. He is in the form of his life for an 11 year old. 3s felt short enough. He may thrash them but I’m not sure. The others have a few questions now. Distracted was just a bit too poor LTO for me and is stepping up in class. If some money came I may take note. This is a weak C3 though. 

So, we shall see. Like I said I was happy to have a dart. You may think I mad though.  





(running total: +16.5 points) 



Meehan Maidens (any odds)

6.00 Bath – Son castello 



5.15 Thirsk – Space War (28/1<) 



(running total: 5/29, 8 places…+48.85 points) 

7.20 Muss-

Lexington Place – 1 point EW– 12/1 (Bet365/BV/SJ/WH)

Pearl Acclaim – 1 point EW – 11/1 (bet365/BV/PP/Lad)

This looks a mighty fine puzzle but I do like trying to get stuck into these sprints. We will probably be throwing a blanket over most of the field come the end of the race. There will be hard luck stories etc etc. At the prices, to use that tired phrase on these pages, these are the two I wanted to go with. I think they are bigger than they should be.

Lexington Place – Well he is in really good form and I can’t work out why he is this big. He can be a slow starter but that hasn’t stopped him winning here before. While not loads of front runners on paper there are enough pace-pushers and it should be run at a decent enough clip. He will need luck but I thought from stall 9 he may be able to maneuver into the centre, rather than get stuck behind some up the rail. That Ayr win was impressive and a shade cosy-he came from right out the back – maybe they did go too hard up top but he showed some turn of foot to win that. It was snug in the end. A repeat of that puts him right in the mix here. Ponte- you can put a line through that, he fell out of the stalls and was always behind. One place you don’t want to be this season on decent ground is out the back at Ponte. That was a decent enough race and he cut through/stayed on late to suggest he is still in form and was hardly given a hard time. Jockey couldn’t ever be arsed to grab 3rd, which I am sure he could have done with a tad more effort. 12s was just too big. He may get cut up but hopefully places at worse.

Pearl Acclaim – is a frustrating bugger who I feel like I have been tracking for an age- last year, I forget which race, he hit major traffic and I kept an eye on him. He didn’t do much after that. Now, he doesn’t win very often but he has won here over CD in a decent C3. There are a lot of CD winners in here which means you can look at some race times. Now, what with ground, and how the races are run, they are only a guide, but interesting. He won his 5f race here, on good to firm in 57.53 seconds. Fumbo Jumbo won his good to firm race here, 5f, in 58.15. Economic C won hers here in 0.58.1. Now, there may have been rail movements etc etc and that may not be useful. The ‘good’ ground winners (expect slower time) over CD – Lexington P (1m.02 s) , Classy Anne (1m.1.6s). I am sure some time gurus out there may have thoughts on that lot – they may not be useful, but interesting anyway. Back to the horse- well he is edging down the weights, has the ability to win this, and has been running well. On his last run he crossed over from a low stall right to the inner. A good piece of jockeyship but that would have cost ground and energy. Maybe he won’t overturn the form with Desert Ace (whose saddle slipped and would have gone closer) but he is twice the price. Box 1 is a slight concern also but I think he could get out and get a position. Horses have won from that stall over CD goood/good to firm. Not impossible, just far from ideal. This jockey has won on him and he likes the CD. In that Classy Anne race (2 starts ago) he had 9-12 on his back. He has 9st here. That caught the eye also. Even though over 5f, that must make some difference.   

Of the rest- well chances for plenty. The market hasn’t missed Desert Ace (obvious chance I think) maybe 11/2 is fair but I will leave him. Olivia Fallow is interesting but I don’t like that break for a sprinter (a developing thought, not researched, I should!) 41 days. Unsure and that puts me off at, you guessed it, the prices. Fumbo Jumbo has a chance getting an allowance. Has been running well and could be more to come. Gets 5lb off back. Very unlucky LTO- but the problem was that she couldn’t hold a position and got out-paced in the middle section, that caused her to hit trouble and go wide. From 12 she could get stuck behind a wall of horses again here. But, a win wouldn’t shock me. 

Kibaar – it appears a few of you like him and there isn’t much to say for me to put you off. Personally I wonder if he has the speed for this test at this track. There were no excuses two starts ago that I could see (he was keen for a time also, unsure if headgear will help,may light him up further) I just didn’t have the pace to go with them when asked. All of his best 2yo form was over 6f, and they ran him over that, in a decent race, LTO. Maybe, with first time headgear, they will blast him out and try and make all this time- that is a possibility and he could well do it. Maybe a small ‘saver’ nibble for me. Ryan’s record with horses in cheekpieces could be better also 12/169,45 places in flat handicaps- 0/23, 4 places in 5f handicaps. There may not be much in that. He is entitled to run his race, esp if ever recapturing his juvenile form. 

So, we shall see how these go. It looks an intriguing little contest run on good/good to firm. (that latter desc may do for Classy Anne I think,if there is enough firm around)

8.55 MUSS

BUNCE- 1 point EW – 9/1 (Betfred/SJ/WH) 8/1 (general)

9s feels too big for this one and fingers crossed there isn’t another non-runner. After ilness troubles in the yard for some time Ms Perratt’s horses are finally coming back to themselves and she is the only trainer ‘in form’ in the race. I have watched that run two starts ago- i believe Gary P tipped him at 50/1 there and I can see why he was a sick as a dog post race. With more luck in running he would have gone very close, and to not place was the salt in the wound. He go no sort of run for most of the latter furlong and when he got space flew in the last 50 yards or so. A repeat of that run puts him in the mix. I don’t know what happened the last day but he came from 1 and the jockey never really got him tucked in. That was good to firm all over and maybe he was taken off his feet/didn’t put down when asked. The other stand out was the fact he drops into C6 from those C4s. He is 0/2,2 places in this grade. Now the jockey- he is 0/33, 5 places on the trainers horses. Gulp. But, he has placed on this one, from two rides, which is fin- and he is 9/1. Finally, he gets the pace set up- there are three or four who like to get on with this and it may collapse. It may not but he will appreciate it. Hopefully he can lay up closer and finish fast, late. The fav has a good chance. In form, speedy- had some form with Laughton last September and he won at Goodwood yesterday. She faces older horses here and is in box 1- will have to use up a bit to get out and across. Summer Isles likes to be up there – the break was a slight concern- wouldn’t be shocked if she won though but a question. Mininggold is unexposed and prominent in the market – trainer only 4/67 last two weeks- not exactly banging them in. The others look up against it. 

So, 9s seems a bit harsh here and he has plenty of form, inc two starts ago, that would put him in the mix. Maybe the young progressive ones are too young and progressive, but there is only one way to find out in this great game. 






Malcolm is off to Thirsk, as below, so I thought I would have a look there to see if any ‘trainers in form’ stood out (when 1 or 2 trainers only have the geegeez green ’14’ or ’30’ indicating their runners have been going well in the last 14 or 30 days. This is a starting point and a bit of a test but it has pointed to some decent winners and placed horses to date, and a few losers. Let’s see how we get on today…) 

2.20 – Nile Empress – 9/4 (14) UP

2.55- Imperial State (14) 2/1 WON| Hilltop Ranger (14) 12/1 UP | Mr Lucas (14) 33/1 3rd (cheating with 3 in this one!) 

3.30 – Sirajiah (14, C5) 5/2 

4.40 – Lady Canford (14,30) 8/1 

5.15 – Fyrecracker (14) 9/4 | Llewellyn 12/1 & Bold Spirit 9/1 (same trainer, 14,30) 



Well a few winners scattered around from various stats – of course I omitted the other Mouse Morris runner who won at 100/1. Yes you read that correctly. You could have just followed the stats – 10 runners last 5 festivals, 3 had won. He was also ‘in form’ in the last two weeks. Looking at him on paper you wouldn’t have backed him. I didn’t. He did the other stats horse in a photo. Damn. (I did back that one for De Bromhead at 5s) 

At Goodwood Johnston’s only main micro qualifier came an agonising 3rd at 25/1 having blown the start. And he had the 1,23, in the nursery,with an 8/1 winner. Given how his 2 years olds had gone so far, and his horses in general, that was no surprise. He has upped his game with the two year olds here this season I think. 


2.35 – Stoutes are interesting, 9/2 or shorter a guide. The types of runners he does well here with. 1st and 2nd 

4.20- Johnston’s – after yesterday probably all worth a look = they don’t tick many stats/angles from the notes, bar the topweight, number 1. 

4.55 – The Haggas runner is interesting here, ticks a couple of stats for his types of winners here. 

5.30 – Poest’s Word -again a typical Stoute type here. 3 year old only race, top 4 LTO, 9/2< 

Johnston has a few others dotted about that I wouldn’t discount, but on the stats at least, they have work to do. 



5.10 – Heartbreak City for Martin- ticks a few boxes and his jumpers going off 9/2 or shorter… 6/11, 6 places. 

8.15 – Our Sox – again for Martin, 16/1. His national hunt handicappers with 0-5 wins to name before this year- 8/25, 11 places

Lettermacaward – 20/1- Winters doesn’t run many here but was 3/7, 4 places (+9SP) at meeting before this year. Profits suggest most were fancied, but you never know. 

8.50 – Both of Martin’s again- 10/23, 16 places with his flat handicappers aged 5 or younger. +4- SP. 

No doubt I may have missed the odd other one. 




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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

38 Responses

  1. hi josh get your point about ballynocks chase win being a weak affair but ithink its a improving horse and trainer as sent 4 runners to bangor this year result being a 1st 2nd 2nd and a 4th the jockey as got a 33%w s/r and 66% pl s/r thought the 6/1 was okay had a win bet on it at that price good luck with your tip what puts me off it is the distance

    1. Hi Antony,yep I certainly wont put you off make a valid case and in fact maybe just a repeat of that Wincanton race would be enough. This is poor for a c3 and maybe I have read it wrong and a repeat of that run would do,before even considering that he is open to improvement. We shall see,I know if one of top 6 in market wins I wont be kicking myself for not backing them. I think. Good luck. Stamina is a concern,but usually some sort of question with 16/1 chase shots.

  2. Evening Josh, just wondered whether you had any thoughts on the 5f sprint at Musselburgh (19.20)? The eyes immediately drawn to Kibaar who is 8lb better off for finishing a length and half behind Olivia Fallow based on their previous run in, in the Scottish Consolation Cup. Olivia Fallow did well that day to tack across to the near side rail and come with a run late on although Meadway had soon flown by then.
    I feel Kibaar will need to break smartly to get racing position from a higher draw, there doesn’t seem to be a great amount of pace (geegeez gold) drawn low to be detrimental to Kibaars chances.
    The other that interested me was Desert Ace following its late swooping run before the jockeys saddle slipped at Catterick, however for a predominately hold up horse I’m loathe to take the 11/2 odds given its run style at a fairly narrow track like Musselburgh where luck in running will be vital.
    Would love to know how you and others interpret the race.

    1. Evening Leon. Yep I will have a good look at that race in the morning and studying your notes carefully! Good luck.

  3. hello Josh, just a bit of site design feedback:

    will there be a clearer navigation of your daily posts in your new-look blog?

    For example, yesterday I missed Broctune Papa Gio in your stats section, probably because of the expansion of your daily posts making them a bit like long shopping lists where you’re always likely to miss one thing off! And also due to the sections being added on one by one – I forget which parts ive already read!

    1. Hmmm no not within the actual posts. I’m unsure how to do that. Posts are always complete by 10am mon-Fri and I try and update the blog title and when you read COMPlETE you know it is done. There are only 3 tipping sections, Tips,Stats/Angles and Sprint Handicap Testing Zone. Of course I can always try and make the layout clearer. Maybe i should move all ‘tipping’ content to the top. Bar making sure you have read post after ‘complete’ is in title i don’t know what to suggest. Happy to take suggestions, as always.

      1. yeah, that’s true – you’ve always been clear with your link updates and i guess it’s down to me to be careful

        That makes sense: tipping at the top, then the other things in order of most viewed: perhaps systems, then the test tips, then stats/angles, then miscellaneous?

        I’d suggest a sort of drop-down/minimise kinda thing for each section, but that would just be major website surgery (which I know nothing about!)

  4. Hi Everyone,Hope your all enjoying Goodwood this week.I am of to Thirsk tomorrow and fancy Head East in the 4-30 looking at his last run behind Mr Lupton and Mayfair Lady if he is fit enough, Ant thoughts about the rest of Thirsk anyone lol

    1. 220 Lexington Sky should be fast enough (shareholder).
      330 Chip or Pellet !
      405 Naadir, favourable conditions, improvement on change of yard
      440 High On Light looks a good thing, taken 7/2
      515 Fyrecracker has its easiest chance of the season.

          1. Hi Malcolm – there are some Thirsk ‘trainer in form’ pointers above,. There may or may not be a few winners in that lot. I haven’t looked at the actual horses, just a pointer really. Ground meant to stay decent, only light showers expected this morning apparently. Good to Firm. Good Luck and enjoy.

  5. If anyone wants to narrow down a M Johnston angle at Goodwood: Goodwood last 5 years> 25-111 23% +87.74 Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum, lime green colours.

    1. Ah yes- is he the one that had the colour change isnt he? the new silks? used to be greed with red cap, but is now the silvery grey, worn by a few winners this week already- normally tell when a godolphin jockey (Sheik Mo’s Cousin- some relative anyway) – one of the James’ – is on top. Not a bad approach really.

      1. They Tip Dusker in the RP & he is my top rated on his debut figure on the AW, is fresh again, jockey is 18% for owner with no lsp but there has been a move for him, he has been nibbled from 15/s in places, I is tempted…

  6. Just tried to get a £5 ew on Gray Hession for an interest at 16-1 with Boyle Sports. They offered me £2-45p. Are they the worst Bookmakers ever?

    1. That is poor but I’d say Stan James – they the first to kick me straight out, Hills restricting my bets (at least they told me), Paddy Power only let me have 20 on something I wanted 25 on earlier. Stan James though, rather than have somebody adjust their odds sooner would rather eject any suspect trader as soon as – none negotiable? Surely it’s all about turnover at the end of the day?

      1. Yea Boyle are awful. I opened an account, and over next couple of weeks won around 180 I think-then restricted. I haven’t gone back. Stan James – yep I backed a handful that shortened, over two years ago now I suspect, and they kicked me out, suspecting I was an Arber. Haven’t returned there either. PP and WH yet to touch me. SkyB restricted, BV removed BOG. The buggers.

        1. I have a whole bunch of theories on the subject most of them logical but none truly proven. (although an old friend of mine who is a trader mentioned that online bookmakers get notified if you withdraw £500+ but not if you withdraw less, so I have personally been withdrawing £150-£200 at a time to keep the attention on accounts to a minimum). Personally I think you want to be using no more than 6-8 bookies at once since you want to be using each one on a semi regular basis so when you get a win and the price had halved and they were the best price it doesn’t stick out like a sore thumb when a trader is looking. Its also not a bad idea for them to see that you dont always grab the absolute best price out there. Don’t over abuse promotions out there either since its another easy way to get yourself restricted. B365 seems to be the only one which it doesn’t apply to. Would certainly get my bookmaker of the year award.

          1. Totally agree with that 365 bookie of the year, especially like their in-play football offer, C4 4/1+ good & they often just chuck me a £10 loyalty free bet, way ahead of the others?

  7. I know you have 20/1 about gray hession but betfair sportsbook prices are a joke.They put up these outrageous prices that last minutes and even if you were lucky i dont know anyone that can get more than £5 e/w on.

    1. yep – he won’t be declared at 20s if he wins. My rules – price has to be available with at least 2 of the big boys on odds checker, and it has to be around for some time- I keep an eye on them. 16s was around for an age, and certainly for anyone who looked last evening. Will be declared at 16s when he canters home 🙂 Agree, they are a joke. I didn’t bet with them, got 16s.

    1. Yea no point in EW bet for me, agree. If he stays/runs well I think he wins- if he doesn’t stay then he won’t be placing. But, each to their own. He could stay and not be good enough or make a horlix of a fence.

  8. morning all…2.35 GD WD just had a look at this and did some calculations in what looks a tricky race…my figures suggest that Promising Run may be worth an e/w nibble at around 7/1 though stakes races are not the easiest puzzle to solve gd lck whatever you back jg.

    1. Nothing has won from stall 17 or above…..I was going to bet it, but the draw is the killer.

  9. hi josh, i am trying something different on geegees gold, were the speed rating must be 10 or more than the official rating, todays selections

    14:20 Samran Says

    14:55 Saxon Gold

    17:15 Tavener

    14:35 Forge Promising Run

    15:10 Hors De Combat Celestial Path One Word More Franklin D

    15:45 Cotai Glory Muthmir (Ajaya

    19:35 Athletic

    19:20 Seamster

    20:55 Summer Isles

    19:45 Lady Blanco

    1. sorry all, my computer went haywire , these are the selections, apoligise again ,

      14:20 Samran Says (10)

      17:15 Tavener (13)


      14:35 Promising Run (11)

      15:10 Hors De Combat (11) Celestial Path (11) One Word More (10) Franklin D (19)

      15:45 Muthmir (10) (Ajaya (14)


      19:35 Athletic (17)

      19:20 Seamster (11)

      20:55 Summer Isles (17)


      19:45 Lady Blanco (22)

      1. I have had a nibble on
        Summer Isles
        Lady Blanco
        Small change trixie??????

        Here’s hoping

  10. The 3.10 Goodwood reall toughie but based on age & draw shortlist of 3 are Franklin D, Azraff, & Room Key

  11. 3.45 Goodwood based on age, single figure price & draw Marsha & Easton Angel to fight out the finish maybe!

  12. Newmarket 5.50 Duck A L’Orange – M L W Bell has had 6 previous runners in Class 5, 3yo, 1 mile 4f, on the July course with 2 wins and 4 places

  13. STEWARDS CUP BET… 1 point EW – RED PIKE – 33/1 a few (5 places BV, 4 places other) , 25/1 (general,inc a few 5 places) 5 places bookies..Bet365/BV/PP/BetfS

    I can’t get away from him for some reason, not at that price. Write up on new post on its way.

  14. A note on the 8.05 Newmarket Haggis has a shortie In the City at 1.53 but his overall record in such races on the July course class trip etc.. is 0 from 14, 2 places
    It may be the case that the horse is too good for the rest of them but at the prices I’ll be leaning towards Howilat & Enmeshing.

  15. Oh bugger, Moss Street who I/we backed at Uttox in Stats/Angles has just won a shade cosily at Bangor, 8s>13/2. Damn. Missed him.

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