Matt, over at Geegeez HQ, has written an article on the draw and pace at Goodwood over the different distances. Well worth a read (Oh and you can take a 7 day trial of ‘Geegeez Gold’ for just £1, bargain… but either way, a must read if you are betting at Goodwood this week)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total = +11.5 points)
*if you baked Pivotman and didn’t watch the race, maybe best not watch the replay. I’m not one for criticising jockeys really but that was by far the worst ride anything I have ever backed has received. He simply had to win. He didn’t. I was counting my money. Difficult to be too harsh in sense that it was a late jockey change and he didn’t know the horse – had Gibbons been on we would be on +27.5 points, instead we are where we are. But then it is his job to know he stays further and has led all the way before, and that asking him to quicken inside 1 furlong from a ‘standing’ start may not be the brightest idea. Gutting, but we move on. That’s how it goes sometimes. Thankfully not too often for me so i shouldn’t moan too much. Just annoying how little effort he put in. I will try and find the next one.
(With the sad passing of JT McNamara this morning, it somewhat puts any perceived poor ride and £20 loss into some perspective. A timely reminder,if ever it was needed, that these brave men a women risks their lives for our enjoyment. Thoughts with his loved ones)
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
2.00 Goodw – Stars Over The Sea (any odds)
5.30 Goodw- Haley Bop – (any odds)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total: 5/22, 7 places… +44.8 points) This will remain a test section for some time yet, despite the positive upturn in results. It is a good sign moving forward but at the odds I am playing at etc some long losing runs are likely and I need to prove my long term consistency (profit) over quite a few more bets than just 22. Of course you are free to engage with them how you see fit.
Bowson Fred – 1 pt EW -16/1 (SB-5p, BV,LAD,BetfS) 3rd (no excuses, good run) 15.2/1 5p R4, +2.8 points (+0.8 points on race)
Harry Hurricane – 1 pt EW – 12/1 (general) * 5th (hopefully some had 5 places,but recorded as unplaced)
*look for 5 places if you can get it (Skybet/Betfred, will be recorded as 4 places for my results)
This looks a cracker of a race and I am intrigued to see how this pans out.
Bowson Fred – well he continues in cracking form and hasn’t really done much wrong. He is fast and likes to dominate from the front. While he wont be able to do that here given who else is in the race he should be up there, and in the right place. He went well for a long way at Ascot in a decent race and I suspect this faster track may just suit. He may have just been on the wrong side there also but led that group for most of the way. He tends to find a bit in front when asked and does stick his head down. Mick Easterby has a good record in these 4yo+ C2 sprint handicaps and this one ticks plenty of boxes. He has been beaten by Royal Birth twice recently, at Chelmsford and Ascot but that is no bad thing given the progress he has made. At Newcastle two starts ago he ran into one Orions Bow – and we know what he went on to do at Hamilton. So, he has had decent horses around him. He may end up doing too much and fading but 16s seems far too big to my eye. He is in form, consistent and there could be more to come. He does need to prove himself at this level on the grass but is lightly enough raced and looks solid here. We should get a good run for 4.5 furlongs at least.
Harry Hurricane – I just wonder whether this has been the plan of recent weeks, following that York success. In that race he had Royal Birth closing on him late, and Ninjago around and had one Kimberella pushing him close also. He travelled well there, on good to firm, and stuck his neck out. He has races well at the track before and I wanted one who may just sit off the pace, and pick up the pieces. That York win came 8 days after his previous start. He ran 13 days or so later at Epsom – where from his drawn he had no chance. He ran well for a time but he never really layed a glove on them and the jockey wasn’t too harsh. He returned at Ascot after more than 1 month off, stumbled out the gates, and faded in the last furlong or so. He comes here 17 days later. I just wonder, given he has ran well twice here, inc this meeting last year, whether that run was to set him up for this. The trainer is in form, and he books James Doyle, which adds to the intrigue. He is 2/9,3 places on Bakers runners in C2 handicaps. So, there are excuses of sorts for the last two runs and a repeat of that York run – and he is still lightly raced,there could be more to come, will see him right in the mix.I hope he has the speed to lay up and track this pace- as he wouldn’t want to be coming from too far behind.
The PACE…looks furious, and it looks mainly high. Boom the Groom (WON) was high up my thinking but I have missed that price and assume he has been tipped up in various places. A few runs at Epsom caught the eye and I can see his chance- as can everyone else it would appear. He got behind in this race last year, taken off his feet,before staying on- and that could spell trouble. I think you will want to be middle to high here, albeit they may merge and it may not matter as much. But, front runners include the selection (stall 14) and stalls 17,19,18…possible 16 (that is Shore Step,who I question whether he has the speed for this 5f test) – Hay Chewed in stall 4 is the only out and out pace low that I can see. So, pace wise, I think you will have to be smart to win from low here. Thesme (2nd) has an obvious chance but keeps knocking on the door – a bit too much now for my liking and is effectively 7lb higher than that last run. She will blast out and provide more pace and maybe Frankie’s magic touch will do the trick. Brother Tiger would have interested me if more prominent in the market I think – he has been fading late in recent runs, which isn’t a trait I like I don’t think in these races- esp when running over the same distance. Another day for him maybe.
So, those two will do here. It looks rather competitive and I am intrigued to see how it pans out and whether those near the front can stay all the way.
NOTE: That is all for today in this section. The 3.30 Yarmouth looks good and I think it is between the top two – I can now start to picture some of these runners recent races, which you would expect when you start watching more of them etc- The fav chased home the one I tipped up to win at Ascot recently, and that is smart form. Likewise Merhoob went in the tracker, as most of the front 5/6 did from his last race. The winner hasn’t franked the form since but the Hills horse has come out and won at 3s. He came from a different side to the winner that day, slight trouble in running, but ran a cracker. He is usually held up and there doesn’t seem loads of pace on paper in this. I would have it between those two and I may have something on Merhoob given the prices, but not a race I wish to tip in as such.
TRAINERS IN FORM
I will leave this today again.
Some horses of note from the Goodwood notes above. I will have missed the odd horse no doubt….
Balmoral Castle – trainer does well at meeting – 3/8. UP
The Johnston Battalion, positives and negatives for most…
Stars Over The Sea – is drawn 4-6 in a handicap here. Neg is that up 1 class from LTO. modest record with that type here to date. 3rd 8/1
Revolutionist – qualifies on the ‘micro angle‘ I think, is also top-weight which is a positive UP
Watersmeet – Again qualifies on the Micro Angle. Also ran at Haydock LTO, a positive. UP
Fire Fighting – Micro angle qualifier I think. Running same Class as LTO a positive. WON 10/1>8/1
(some more digging may be needed with those- they look key to how this race will pan out given the first three like to get on with it- will they either dictate and stay there all the way, or go too fast and set it up. A puzzle)
Our Channel – goes for Haggas, same class as LTO, qualifies on the handicap micro angle- 2/8, 4 places- UP
Larchmont Lad – ticks a few boxes for Hannon, if going off 11/1 or shorter.
Notarised – micro angle qualifier for Johnston, also ran Haydock LT) Looks likely to be on the pace. 3rd 10/1>7/1
Both of Hannons again, tick some boxes although he is now 0/25, 12 places with 2 year old debutants here. Interesting how they go in the market etc.
Haley Bop – some positives and negatives, running in same class as LTO, a positive.
If I have time I will have a flick through some of the handicaps.
Day 1s runners ran well on the whole, esp Tony Martins… 2nds at 20/1 and 14/1 (both looking like they may win at one stage) a 9/1 3rd and a 4/1 second. A day of door knocking.
Not much from what I can see bar the last race 8.20, where Tony Martin has two. Artful Artist (3/1) and Spacious Sky (20/1)