Free Daily Post: 26/07/16 (COMPLETE)


Matt, over at Geegeez HQ, has written an article on the draw and pace at Goodwood over the different distances. Well worth a read (Oh and you can take a 7 day trial of ‘Geegeez Gold’ for just £1, bargain… but either way, a must read if you are betting at Goodwood this week) 









None today. 



(running total = +11.5 points)


*if you baked Pivotman and didn’t watch the race, maybe best not watch the replay. I’m not one for criticising jockeys really but that was by far the worst ride anything I have ever backed has received. He simply had to win. He didn’t. I was counting my money. Difficult to be too harsh in sense that it was a late jockey change and he didn’t know the horse – had Gibbons been on we would be on +27.5 points, instead we are where we are. But then it is his job to know he stays further and has led all the way before, and that asking him to quicken inside 1 furlong from a ‘standing’ start may not be the brightest idea. Gutting, but we move on. That’s how it goes sometimes. Thankfully not too often for me so i shouldn’t moan too much. Just annoying how little effort he put in. I will try and find the next one.

 (With the sad passing of JT McNamara this morning, it somewhat puts any perceived poor ride and £20 loss into some perspective. A timely reminder,if ever it was needed, that these brave men a women risks their lives for our enjoyment. Thoughts with his loved ones)  






2.00 Goodw – Stars Over The Sea (any odds) 

5.30 Goodw- Haley Bop – (any odds) 




 (running total: 5/22, 7 places… +44.8 points)  This will remain a test section for some time yet, despite the positive upturn in results. It is a good sign moving forward but at the odds I am playing at etc some long losing runs are likely and I need to prove my long term consistency (profit) over quite a few more bets than just 22. Of course you are free to engage with them how you see fit. 


4.20 Goodwood 

Bowson Fred – 1 pt EW -16/1  (SB-5p, BV,LAD,BetfS) 3rd (no excuses, good run) 15.2/1 5p R4, +2.8 points (+0.8 points on race) 

Harry Hurricane – 1 pt EW – 12/1 (general) * 5th (hopefully some had 5 places,but recorded as unplaced) 

*look for 5 places if you can get it (Skybet/Betfred, will be recorded as 4 places for my results) 

This looks a cracker of a race and I am intrigued to see how this pans out. 

Bowson Fred – well he continues in cracking form and hasn’t really done much wrong. He is fast and likes to dominate from the front. While he wont be able to do that here given who else is in the race he should be up there, and in the right place. He went well for a long way at Ascot in a decent race and I suspect this faster track may just suit. He may have just been on the wrong side there also but led that group for most of the way. He tends to find a bit in front when asked and does stick his head down. Mick Easterby has a good record in these 4yo+ C2 sprint handicaps and this one ticks plenty of boxes. He has been beaten by Royal Birth twice recently, at Chelmsford and Ascot but that is no bad thing given the progress he has made. At Newcastle two starts ago he ran into one Orions Bow – and we know what he went on to do at Hamilton. So, he has had decent horses around him. He may end up doing too much and fading but 16s seems far too big to my eye. He is in form, consistent and there could be more to come. He does need to prove himself at this level on the grass but is lightly enough raced and looks solid here. We should get a good run for 4.5 furlongs at least. 

Harry Hurricane – I just wonder whether this has been the plan of recent weeks, following that York success. In that race he had Royal Birth closing on him late, and Ninjago around and had one Kimberella pushing him close also. He travelled well there, on good to firm, and stuck his neck out. He has races well at the track before and I wanted one who may just sit off the pace, and pick up the pieces. That York win came 8 days after his previous start. He ran 13 days or so later at Epsom – where from his drawn he had no chance. He ran well for a time but he never really layed a glove on them and the jockey wasn’t too harsh. He returned at Ascot after more than 1 month off, stumbled out the gates, and faded in the last furlong or so. He comes here 17 days later. I just wonder, given he has ran well twice here, inc this meeting last year, whether that run was to set him up for this. The trainer is in form, and he books James Doyle, which adds to the intrigue. He is 2/9,3 places on Bakers runners in C2 handicaps. So, there are excuses of sorts for the last two runs and a repeat of that York run – and he is still lightly raced,there could be more to come, will see him right in the mix.I hope he has the speed to lay up and track this pace- as he wouldn’t want to be coming from too far behind. 

The PACE…looks furious, and it looks mainly high. Boom the Groom (WON) was high up my thinking but I have missed that price and assume he has been tipped up in various places. A few runs at Epsom caught the eye and I can see his chance- as can everyone else it would appear. He got behind in this race last year, taken off his feet,before staying on- and that could spell trouble. I think you will want to be middle to high here, albeit they may merge and it may not matter as much. But, front runners include the selection (stall 14) and stalls 17,19,18…possible 16 (that is Shore Step,who I question whether he has the speed for this 5f test) – Hay Chewed in stall 4 is the only out and out pace low that I can see. So, pace wise, I think you will have to be smart to win from low here. Thesme (2nd) has an obvious chance but keeps knocking on the door – a bit too much now for my liking and is effectively 7lb higher than that last run. She will blast out and provide more pace and maybe Frankie’s magic touch will do the trick. Brother Tiger would have interested me if more prominent in the market I think – he has been fading late in recent runs, which isn’t a trait I like I don’t think in these races- esp when running over the same distance. Another day for him maybe. 

So, those two will do here. It looks rather competitive and I am intrigued to see how it pans out and whether those near the front can stay all the way.


NOTE: That is all for today in this section. The 3.30 Yarmouth looks good and I think it is between the top two – I can now start to picture some of these runners recent races, which you would expect when you start watching more of them etc- The fav chased home the one I tipped up to win at Ascot recently, and that is smart form. Likewise Merhoob went in the tracker, as most of the front 5/6 did from his last race. The winner hasn’t franked the form since but the Hills horse has come out and won at 3s. He came from a different side to the winner that day, slight trouble in running, but ran a cracker. He is usually held up and there doesn’t seem loads of pace on paper in this. I would have it between those two and I may have something on Merhoob given the prices, but not a race I wish to tip in as such.



I will leave this today again. 




Some horses of note from the Goodwood notes above. I will have missed the odd horse no doubt….



Balmoral Castle – trainer does well at meeting – 3/8. UP

The Johnston Battalion, positives and negatives for most…

Stars Over The Sea – is drawn 4-6 in a handicap here. Neg is that up 1 class from LTO. modest record with that type here to date. 3rd 8/1

Revolutionist – qualifies on the ‘micro angle‘ I think, is also top-weight which is a positive UP

Watersmeet – Again qualifies on the Micro Angle. Also ran at Haydock LTO, a positive. UP

Fire Fighting – Micro angle qualifier I think. Running same Class as LTO a positive. WON 10/1>8/1

(some more digging may be needed with those- they look key to how this race will pan out given the first three like to get on with it- will they either dictate and stay there all the way, or go too fast and set it up. A puzzle) 

Our Channel – goes for Haggas, same class as LTO, qualifies on the handicap micro angle- 2/8, 4 places- UP



Larchmont Lad – ticks a few boxes for Hannon, if going off 11/1 or shorter. 

3.45 – 

Notarised – micro angle qualifier for Johnston, also ran Haydock LT) Looks likely to be on the pace. 3rd 10/1>7/1

4.55 – 

Both of Hannons again, tick some boxes although he is now 0/25, 12 places with 2 year old debutants here. Interesting how they go in the market etc. 

5.30 – 

Haley Bop – some positives and negatives, running in same class as LTO, a positive. 



If I have time I will have a flick through some of the handicaps. 

Day 1s runners ran well on the whole, esp Tony Martins… 2nds at 20/1 and 14/1 (both looking like they may win at one stage) a 9/1 3rd and a 4/1 second. A day of door knocking.

Day 2…

Not much from what I can see bar the last race 8.20, where Tony Martin has two. Artful Artist (3/1) and Spacious Sky (20/1) 



Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

41 Responses

  1. Glad you picked out Bowson Fred Josh since that was my tentative selection. I think that Ascot run can be upgraded given he was in the wrong group. The fact that Evans returns to the saddle to take 5lbs off is another plus for me.

    Nothing else at Goodwood interests me. My general view at Goodwood (barring the straight track) is to look for prominent runners from a good draw since definitely think its much harder to come from the back particularly in large fields. This is especially true over 7f-7.5f.

    I was debating picking Gifted Master however I have a feeling considering both him and Home of the Brave like to front run and both trained by Palmer he will be held back to make sure they don’t cut each other up and perhaps better left for another day.

    The one trainer who doesn’t have runners today but I suspect will be keen to get his first Goodwood Festival winner this week is Richard Hughes. Will be taking an extra keen look at his runners given he has always done well here as a jockey and made sure he got a winner during the first meeting at the track this season. (pretty certain it was the 1st of the season anyway-Russian Realm)

    1. thanks Nick – yep ou make good points, esp about Hughes – you can see him targeting this meeting more and more as the years go on and his jockeys will be left in no doubt about how to ride any given race. As always its interesting to see how the Johnston runners go and I agree about pace.
      The great British weather could be the biggest spanner- our ‘summer’ could come to an end this week, as it could get quite wet I think. That only complicates matters further. We shall see.

  2. hi josh, lost £180 on pivotman! thought was another langley vale day! how is that petition going for all bookmakers to accept £25 on all races going?
    I have really got the hump with bookies now! have not been getting best odds with betvictor for a while now, but at least was able to get£70 bets on no problem, until today. they have now closed my account completely! miserable sods they are! they just want everyone to lose! you see that notice in the betting shops ” when the fun stops, stop” they have probably got a notice in their office ” WHEN PEOPLE HAVE FUN, WINNING, STOP EM!

    1. ah yes I can feel that pain – very ‘unlucky’ there not to have collected a rather nice sum. I haven’t brought myself to watch the replay again yet, but i will. Yep, a real problem but starting to be discussed more I thin but no idea on progress.

    2. I will go along with that, Laddies, betbright, corals and betfred in the last couple of weeks and the winnings for all of them dont even add up to £500. Sky and marathon every time i go to back a horse or football it restricts my limits even though i have lost not won god help us all if they start to amalgamate and then you wont be able to put an online bet on. How is it you can go to a betting shop on the high st and put a oner on a horse and win and nothing is said but put it online and they block your account.
      traders are faceless Txxxs

  3. Quite like Pacolita 5.30 EW 25/s – clocked a personal best last time which gives her the best going & distance figures in this race.

  4. Josh, I have no wish to rub salt into an open wound but why did you expect Pivotman to be taken to the front in that race? In the last five races the form comments are:

    ‘In last pair until 3 furlongs out’,
    ‘towards rear, driven to chase leaders 1 furlong out’
    ‘held up mid-division, ridden over 2f out’
    ‘held up towards rear, headway over 2f out’
    ‘held up in mid-division, headway on inside over 2f out’

    2 of those rides were from Graham Gibbons…

    1. Hi Steve – I was looking way beyond his last 5 runs, where the odds suggest for most he wasnt there to win – and holding up a horse out the back is a sure fire way to go unnoticed, either to get mark down or line up a gamble from big odds. I was looking all the way back to Dec 2014 where he made all at the track, and indeed most of his best runs have come when tracking the pace- go and look at those three runs back end of 2014. That is why i thought they ‘might’ try and make all. (in a race with no scorching pace either – SDS was able to dictate pretty much,as pace maps suggested may be the case) He could have led if wanted, and i suspect if Gibbons was on may have been but am guessing. He has ran well from further of the pace so it wasnt a necessity, but for one that stays further I thought they may use his extra stamina- in the end he travelled so well it didn’t matter where he was ridden – except from a luck in running/positioning perspective. Had he tracked SDS there and bustled him out – back with the blinkers on- we would have been celebrating I suspect. That was a ‘looking beyond’ the obvious selection, and I called it right. Just wasnt to be this time. He is 3/43 on turf, 3/8 on AW.

      1. The whole point Josh is that he ambled into a position that he didn’t have to be in. The writing was on the wall once he strategically chose that option. He created the impasse. The horse was struggling to improve but he wouldn’t help it. That’s where the anger comes from. Not that he lost or made a balls of it. It was he had no intention of trying to win. I’m angry [and I had buttons on it] that the powers that be didn’t pick up on it. Bad cess to them.

        1. Interesting point Tony… The bookies were quick to cut his odds but if connections weren’t on early at the fancy prices then I suspect yesterday wasn’t going to be his day. I wont go into detail on here for obvious reasons but i think many on here will realize what I am getting at.

      2. I see what you are saying Josh, the last time he appeared to be ‘trying’ was the first run of the season in a swamp at Pontefract after a 7 month layoff. Be interesting to know if any of the money down was from connections, which we will never find out obviously. Unlike Jose Santos who admitted having a few quid at 200-1 on Dandy Flame because ‘he shows a lot of speed at home’….

  5. Hi Josh…Nick Pullen tips up Boom The Groom in the 4.20……he writes up an interesting piece, but I’ve done your testing zone runners from the start bar one, so i’ll have 3 runners…..but mainly leave the rest alone today.
    Your right about perspective on J T McNamara…..I hope his family and friends find comfort.

  6. Pivotman the less said the better… but your assessment before the race and after concurs with mine.

    Moving onto Goodwood.

    2:00 – Fire Fighting -10/1 Mark Johnston has won the race 4 out of the last 10 and runs four all have chances. Fire Fighting is well handicapped 8lb lower than when beaten less than 2 lengths 3rd in this race last year.. Last years run came on good to soft and he is a better horse on quicker ground. He is 5/25 18 places on good or quicker ground, ticks the boxes marked ground, going and distance and jockey Adam Kirby has won on the horse in the past. Trainer mark Johnston is 6/20 30% +60.5 with horses at this meeting finishing out of the first 5 last time out. His 6th in the John Smith Cup showed he was returning to form also had a each way on Balmoral Castle… Tough race though and i could give about 10 some sort of chance including of course Stars Over The Sea.

    3:45 – Notarised – 8/1 no need add much more for this one.

    4:20 – Harry Hurricane gets the pace set up he needs here and your assesement of his chance doesn’t need adding too…. Have gone fro Boon The Groom and modest each way punt on the Irish raider Abstraction overpriced for me at 22s and would have the price if trained by a fashionable trainers. Not saying he will win but very speedy and handles sharp 5f and hopefully he might hang for the places.

    5:30 – Haggle – 10/1 – A race I should really avoid but have gone each way on the Luca Cumani filly When I first stared betting in the 80s trainer Luca Cumani always seemed to have laid out horses for handicaps at Glorious Goodwood and he was a trainer the bookies feared. Things have not gone so well in recent seasons and this year has been really poor. But he is still very capable and I do like the chances of his runner Haggle in this 1 mile fillies handicap.

    Here’s why I think we have a fair value bet on our hands. The three year old makes her handicap and seasonal debut here after three starts as a two year old. Showed a good turn of foot when winning the second of them on good to soft at Newmarket back last September. On her debut she was 3rd behind the smart Ballydoyle and Nemoralia and its not hard to think she is capable of rating higher than 93 as a three year old if she has trained on. Track and going are slight unknowns although she seemed to handle quick ground on her debut.

    Trainer Luca Cumani is still adept at improving horses when they get into handicap company – In the past 5 years he is 38/144 26% +51.21 A/E 1.23 65 places 45% . What is even more interesting his record in the past 5 years with handicap debutants at Goodwood 1/ 2 50% 2 places 100%.

    Time for Luca to roll back the years!!


    8:20 – Not the best of cards I am on modestly each way on Spacious Sky using the Tony Martin angle. Handicapped to go well on his best form back in 2014 Was beaten 1/2 length by this years Chester Cup 3rd, Silver Concorde at Killarney last July over 1m 6f. Going back to 2014 he was a good 4th over C&D at that years festival. Was then 3rd, beaten 2 1/2 lengths in a valuable handicap at the York Ebor Festival. Favourite that day he was just 2 lengths behind Quest For More, getting a 1lb. In October of that year he ran Clondaw Warrior to a 1/4 length 2nd in a valuable 1m 7f handicap at Leopardstown. At York he was racing off 84 and at Leopardstown 85 and today he runs of just 68. Could bomb or could win who knows but at 22/1 i can happily find out. Has a similar chance to the other martin runner who is the 3/1 favourite

    One from Beverley

    5:05 – Faintly 9/2 – Using that Ruth Carr & James Sullivan angle that was mentioned last week by someone, apologies as I cant remember who posted it!

    Be very happy to get out without too much damage today.

    Good luck to everyone

      1. Cheers mate… I think we will need it time for me settle down to Racing UK should be a fun afternoon 🙂

        1. Good start John there, you can relax now! i am rather glad one of the Johnston horses won!! I just couldn’t resist.

    1. Hi John

      The Ruth Carr angle does’nt include Beverley I think I listed the tracks on the 20/07/2016 post…..sorry would have posted earlier but was up in Berwick upon Tweed doing the day job lol…..nonetheless I see your picks were on the money well done


  7. I’ve backed Abstraction in the 420, over from N Ireland for his owner/trainer. I’m hoping he will suited by the track as he has a high cruising speed, needs fast going and they might struggle to catch him if he can nab a lead from the 2f pole.
    I thought Our Channel was a stonker @25/1 ew and I’m on Tupi, 310, also ew, 33/1 1/4 3 places, for whom fast ground and 7f are ideal, especially if Frankie can get them at it from the front.

  8. Blimey, this is a busy tuesday’s punting session

    4.20 Abstraction looks interesting at 33/1 tops from the small-time yard, big jockey booking (Atzeni) angle. Irish form pretty solid and makes 33/1 look too big, Ive backed a point e/w in my own little ‘test section’, which is probably not doing as well as yours Josh!

    1. Yep I can see why you would have a nibble at him – I didn’t know what to make of his form etc but the jockey booking is interesting. While the ground may have gone LTO (unsure) that was a tame effort still. While lightly races no win since 2013 now and I talked myself out of him. But, he is 33s and you can overlook plenty. His mark seemed a bit hard also given last win was in a handicap, in 2013, off 86. I prefer proven classy big field form in these races I think, so he has a few things to prove. I am whisking the eggs as we speak! GL

  9. hi Josh, i wondered if you have any thoughts on Maljaa 4.20 Goodw . Varian stats show up well in cl2 sprints with this type???

    1. HI James, yep there are thoughts and notes on all of them…he has a chance, young, unexposed, the trainer stats as you say. And, my judgement of single priced horses in these C2 sprints, Kimberella aside, could be better. I thought 7s this morning was ok, but not a price that I wanted to jump at. He has ran over the CD before and placed – but with a decent run at Ascot, winning in the mud at Haydock,and a good run at Leicester- I just wondered whether a stiffer track would be better now for him and I wonder if he has the pace- I don’t know what happened at Epsom but he could never get close- maybe an off day but that kind of run doesn’t bode well for the similarly quick/sharp test here. I was worried whether he may get too far back. But, if up there early, I would be concerned for my own fortunes. Then there was the draw – everything suggests that high is the place to be, but when it is that obvious, it will probably mean that egg will be all over my face! He clearly has ability and I you like him you have to have a nibble. He has a chance, just not a good enough one for me, at the prices. Cue and orion’s bow style hack up!

  10. So obviously first race and a horse drawn 16 wins however I thought Kirby did a great job to make sure he was fairly prominent and he knew he was on a good horse considering he was at least 2 deep all the way round.

    1. Yep – stats for those drawn high, over that distance at track, are fine in big fields. Not many races I don’t think, 5 on the geegeez stats, 12+ runners…2 winners drawn 15 and 17. No reason to be put off just on that front- but clearly race can be over pretty early if you don’t get a good position – all fell right for him – strong pace, ground, and the only one to chase him is a bit of a ‘character’

  11. Great run there by Notarised thought I had another one there after Fire Fighting

    Elidor’s win enhanced the Mick Channo/Silvestre De Sousa at Goodwood record – They came into the meeting 6/17 35% +15 A/E 2.28 (Chi Score is a good to at 5.11) places 65% +24.10 with all runners at the track not just the “Glorious” meeting…. Ironically i had them in my notes to check their runners tomorrow haha

    A combo whose runners clearly need a second look

    GeeGeez Gold Reports are worth the subscription to the site alone

    1. Yep- must admit I didn’t really look at the race in any depth but had a small EW nibble for fun on Notarised, following Fire Fighting. I did think he looked the winner but no excuse from what I can see. Solid run. Elidor came close in that race last year and is a solid yardstick.

      yep agree about the Geegeez Reports, very good indeed if you like those kind of stats/ways in etc.

  12. Boom The Groom and Bowson Fred…both ew have made my day and put me in the clear.
    Jars out lads….lol

    1. Haha super- I may have had a saver on BooM…two years after i backed him in The Dash, don’t think I have backed him since. Harry H 5th as well I think- Boom was 16s last night I think, 7s when I looked this morning – was happy to leave but he has done well from that side- had to do all his own work from some way out and drifted right over -shade cosily in the end. Happy, analysis wise how that panned out. No complaints. Pondering whether I would have tipped him up at 16s had I looked earlier and I have no idea. 5 were on my shortlist on my notepad… Bowson Fred, Union Rose, Boom T G, Harry H and Thesme. 1st , 2nd, 3rd and 5th.

  13. Good runs there by Boom the Groom and a nice 16/1 place for you there with Bowson Fred Josh

      1. I do enjoy having the most clued up blog readers in the game haha. Winners pop up everywhere in these comments. Super.

  14. I got 16s last night for BTG……went out to 17 on Betfair…..happy days.

    I see you had it as well Steve….which off your own bat was great. well done. I just took Nick Pullen’s alternative.

    1. Well done. That will teach me for not looking/running out of time in the afternoon! Not sure I could have tipped him at 7s when I knew he was 16s, and in any case, I may not have done anyway, but i would have been close to. Lovely price. Happy with how that went in general.
      Clearly learn a lesson on pace at Goodwood 5f – that happened last year as well, winner from that side drifted over. So, even if you think loads of pace, it doens’t seem to matter as much – and there was pace low- think they were level at halfway but boom has run his socks off there.

  15. Well done Josh. I’ll be honest I was going to wait until 1/8 to start backing the sprinters but accidently backed them this morning so nice way to start that off for me. Can never be too disappointed when both picks place at double figures in a race like that. For once my portfolio approach worked wonders with 1st/3rd(twice)/4th/5th out of that race.

    1. Good stuff Nick- yep am increasingly happy with my shortlisting work in these, am getting better I think – or I may just be enjoying a golden spell, which may be aligned to there being consistent ground for the first time in a while!? Yep no complaints with that, I couldn’t have justified tipping winner at 7s etc, only annoyance is not giving myself a chance to tip in by looking in afternoon. But, there we go. No complaints there at all.
      You must have enjoyed watching the last furlong of that race!! Well done.

      Do what you want with the test tips etc, your money, but always option to start small and hopefully build up in time. Best of both worlds then -you may win, but at same time any losses are not too severe!

  16. Well Haggle didn’t roll back the years for Luca Cumani but ran well to grab 2nd just didn’t quicken inside the final furlong like the winner did.. not much damage done as I had her e/w.@10s albeit with a 10p rule 4

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *