Matt, over at Geegeez HQ, has written an article on the draw and pace at Goodwood over the different distances. Well worth a read (Oh and you can take a 7 day trial of ‘Geegeez Gold’ for just £1, bargain… but either way, a must read if you are betting at Goodwood this week)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Broctune Papa Gio – 1 point win – 7/1 (Bet365/BV/Coral) 6/1 (general) WON – 7/1 SP*
*Well he won that as, to be honest, I thought he might. Lovely job. I really should just be more patient with this section and wait for the horses to ‘stand out’- which in truth I think most of the winners have done, more so than plenty of the losers I think.
Well I had a look at the ‘horses for courses’ report on Geegeez which I should really use more I suppose, at least as a way in. This old boy is 5/27, 11 places at the track and it is fair to say that he likes the place. On closer inspection he is 1/4, 3 places over CD and in class 6. He hasn’t raced in a C6 handicap since August 2012! There were enough bits and pieces of form last year, inc here, to suggest he still retains some ability. He has also come down the weights having won off 64, twice (effectively with claims,67) now racing off 59. This looks like the perfect opportunity to get his head back inf front. The trainer has also booked one of the most promising jockeys in here I think. Miss Easterby has been seen to good effect already this season, she is 3/17,7 places in total, 2/9, 4 places in C6 handicaps and 2/3, 3 places in the last 14 days. She will be riding with confidence. Provided there is no rain, which would somewhat potentially ruin all my bets at the track, he looks to have a great chance here. 7s was more than fair. I think I backed him at a big price on his first run of the season where he went well for a long way before fading – it appears he needed it. The ground was on the soft side the last day so I think a line can be put through that. He races up with the pace and may well relish these calmer waters. I am starting to think he could win this well. Time will tell.
Pam Sly Females (any odds)
7.20 Leic- Ghinia
Meehan Maidens (any odds)
7.00 Sand – Ivegotthepower
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
3.30 – Nonchalant UP
4.40 – Tavener UP
5.50 – Opt Out UP
Goodwood (any odds)
4.55 – Desertoflife UP/ Kiltara UP
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
I will have a look at the 4.40 and 5.15 from Redcar. I am conscious that I think all of the wins in this section have come at Class 4 or above. There may be something in that moving forward, but we shall see. These two races are class 6. Maybe- just maybe, the idea of horses being in form/holding their form, is more important at C4 or above. And, when looking at C6, you are looking to find a lurker, who is seemingly really out of form and who may bounce back for some reason, and running against similarly out of form horses. But, that could well be ‘back of a fag packet’ thinking.
Cool Strutter – 1 point EW – 20/1 (BF/BV/SJ/LAD) 18/1 general- UP 14/1- (close enough,an ok run)
A J Cook – 1 point EW – 25/1 (BV/WH) 20/1 (general) 3rd >16/1 SP …. (+5.25 points horse, +3.25 points race) *
*a decent run from the pair, AJ Cook getting into a place late in the day to leave a small profit on the race. El Principe who I narrowed down as the main danger – he was around 8s when looking, was backed into 6s while I was deliberating. I was never going to back three in a race like this – well, not until profits are much bigger maybe, and I couldn’t leave one of the biggies- if one of them had gone in having been left on the note-pad! Happy enough, again, with that analysis.
Well these are two ‘testy punts’ if ever you have seen them – and I was tempted to go 1/2 points EW- but it is a test section. I have not backed these with 1 pt EW of my own money, indeed I don’t think I am yet to do that. 1 point for me is £20, and in general I have been playing with 5s and 10s. This is an awful race and it is good to test myself at this lower level- as above it may be that longer term I restrict to Class 4 and above maybe, but there is only one way to find out if this class of race is just too unpredictable, and that is to ‘play in them as if live’.
Cool Strutter- well this one was once rated in the high 80s for Andrew Balding – indeed in August last year he came a close 3rd, over 6f, in a C4 handicap off OR 80. With the claim he is off 60 here. This trainer will get wins from this horse, I have no doubt about that. 1/18, 5 places on turf, the only win in a maiden, there are enough bits and pieces of form to suggest she will pick up a race or three at some point. 3 runs ago, in May this year, for Balding, he came a 3 length 3rd in a C4, off 67. On his first start for this trainer he didn’t do too much but I wonder whether the softer ground there was far from ideal. His last race is most interesting. He raced prominently enough but to my eye looked to pull rather hard for the first half. He travelled into the race well enough and came with some sort of challenge two from home. He then had traffic problems and got no sort of run. The jockey gave up with 1 f to go ro so and stood up and let him coast home. That may be deceptive but he travelled like a horse that could do something soon. 6f, on good to firm (If forecasts/Clerk is to be believed they will escape rain today- we shall see) on this galloping/fair track may be just the ticket. The trainer is in form. Her track form isn’t great, 2/50- but, in C6, 6 furlong handicaps here she is 1/10, 2 places- which reads better! In a race where every horse has a question, where some have yet to win, I wanted one with a price I think. 20s allows you to overlook plenty. Given his past rating/yard/the odd run etc, he should win a C6 handicap at some point. Interesting.
A J Cook is more of a punt – the trainer is in form, which caught the eye – along with C Fairhurst the only 3 in the race with a Geegeez green ‘in form’ symbol. The jockey booking also caught the eye – he hasn’t ridden him since 2013 and this horse had had a lot of claiming/inexperienced jockeys on his back in recent runs. There is a small chance the booking of a pro may bring out more. Now he is only 1/32, 6 places in his career but he is hitting that age where some sprinters can take off- 6. He has ran over 5f here and that Thirsk run in May last year offers some hope. Beaten a head, caught late, over 6f on good to firm, off OR55. 5lb lower here I suppose I am asking him to repeat that run. If he does I think he out-runs these odds. His runs this season- well he refused to race in the first one, so his start two starts ago was effectively his seasonal reappearance and he may have needed it. Last time out was more promising, on ground probably softer than ideal. (his best form I think has been on good to firm). This is a very weak race for me and he just looked interesting at the prices.
In a race without loads of pace these two could race prominently. They are clearly pokes, and both could fall out the back of the tv, but I thought I would have a go.
You can make cases for plenty. The fav has an obvious chance given his profile but still has some questions. El Principe (WON) would be the one I like near the top of the market I think, but then they keep buggering about with the distance and I don’t think they know his best trip. Jebel Tara- if repeated his previous two runs over this distance would have a chance – a repeat of those may be enough but he is 11, against quite a few younger ones here. Bar the bottom two in the market I wouldn’t be shocked if anything else won. It is that kind of race. Which one is in the right frame of mind!
That will do for sprint handicaps today. Analysing one poor C6 is enough for me at this time of the day! 🙂 The other one looks ok but a short price fav who is now getting the hang of things and a prominent O’Meara runner at 11/2. Lots of 3 and 4 year olds also. I will sit that one out.
TRAINERS IN FORM
(a reminder that this sections aims to highlighted handicap races where one or two trainer only are ‘in form’ as denoted by Geegeez Gold, which essentially looks at winners/placed horses in last 14 days and 30 days. The idea is to provide a useful starting point for further research)
This approach worked well on our last visit to a jumps track… +13 points…so with that in mind let’s head up to Perth…
2.45 – Now This Is It (‘3o’) – 25/1- UP
3.20 – Dr Moloney (30) 10/3 | Nefyn Bay (14,C1,C5) 3/1- both NR
3.55 – Gleann Na Ndochais (14) 10/1- UP
4.30 – Silver Gent (14,C1,C5) 16/1 – 3rd – | Glacial Rock (14) 25/1 UP
5.05 – Wyfield Rose (14) 5/2 NR
BIG MEETING NOTES: GOODWOOD + GALWAY
2.00- Communicator – ticks some boxes for Balding, all winners 12/1< to date.
2.35 – Platitude – Stoute Micro Qualifier is going off 9/2<
4.55 – Both of Johnstons, Kiltara / Desertoflife – both ‘micro angle’ qualifiers
5.25 – Afjaan – ticks some boxes for Haggas – looks short for a race of this nature.
3.35 – Conduct Yourself – Kiely good record here from limited no. of runners. Record over 16f is good (this is 16.5) I think all prev 16f races here may now be 16.5f – I missed a Mullins 8/1 winner yesterday, his record in non-handicaps over 16f was the micro angle. Race was 16/5f. Bugger. Hopefully some may have found him. I did say I may miss the odd one! Damn.
5.30 – All of De Bromheads aged 7+… albeit if the market is a guide they may all struggle. I haven’t looked at this race in any depth but surely If Road To Riches repeats any of his better G1 runs, he is going very close and could make 9/2 look generous. This looks like a plan you would think and compared to his usual opposition, this is a moderate bunch. Will class win the day. Lavelle’s could run well also, and looks interesting given his profile and the form of the trainer. In a race I have no strong views in, I may have a small dart at those two.
6.05 – My Painter- Hogan does well here from limited runers.
6.40 – Aspen – Again same for Wachman albeit he is best in maidens he has had a handicap winner.