NEW…
Matt, over at Geegeez HQ, has written an article on the draw and pace at Goodwood over the different distances. Well worth a read (Oh and you can take a 7 day trial of ‘Geegeez Gold’ for just £1, bargain… but either way, a must read if you are betting at Goodwood this week)
GOODWOOD: DRAW AND PACE ANALYSIS HERE>>>
***
GLORIOUS GOODWOOD TRAINER NOTES HERE>>>
GALWAY FESTIVAL TRAINER NOTES HERE>>>
***
TIPS
None.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
5.50 Redcar
Broctune Papa Gio – 1 point win – 7/1 (Bet365/BV/Coral) 6/1 (general) WON – 7/1 SP*
*Well he won that as, to be honest, I thought he might. Lovely job. I really should just be more patient with this section and wait for the horses to ‘stand out’- which in truth I think most of the winners have done, more so than plenty of the losers I think.
Well I had a look at the ‘horses for courses’ report on Geegeez which I should really use more I suppose, at least as a way in. This old boy is 5/27, 11 places at the track and it is fair to say that he likes the place. On closer inspection he is 1/4, 3 places over CD and in class 6. He hasn’t raced in a C6 handicap since August 2012! There were enough bits and pieces of form last year, inc here, to suggest he still retains some ability. He has also come down the weights having won off 64, twice (effectively with claims,67) now racing off 59. This looks like the perfect opportunity to get his head back inf front. The trainer has also booked one of the most promising jockeys in here I think. Miss Easterby has been seen to good effect already this season, she is 3/17,7 places in total, 2/9, 4 places in C6 handicaps and 2/3, 3 places in the last 14 days. She will be riding with confidence. Provided there is no rain, which would somewhat potentially ruin all my bets at the track, he looks to have a great chance here. 7s was more than fair. I think I backed him at a big price on his first run of the season where he went well for a long way before fading – it appears he needed it. The ground was on the soft side the last day so I think a line can be put through that. He races up with the pace and may well relish these calmer waters. I am starting to think he could win this well. Time will tell.
***
MICRO SYSTEMS
Pam Sly Females (any odds)
7.20 Leic- Ghinia
Meehan Maidens (any odds)
7.00 Sand – Ivegotthepower
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
Redcar (12/<)
3.30 – Nonchalant UP
4.40 – Tavener UP
5.50 – Opt Out UP
Goodwood (any odds)
4.55 – Desertoflife UP/ Kiltara UP
***
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
I will have a look at the 4.40 and 5.15 from Redcar. I am conscious that I think all of the wins in this section have come at Class 4 or above. There may be something in that moving forward, but we shall see. These two races are class 6. Maybe- just maybe, the idea of horses being in form/holding their form, is more important at C4 or above. And, when looking at C6, you are looking to find a lurker, who is seemingly really out of form and who may bounce back for some reason, and running against similarly out of form horses. But, that could well be ‘back of a fag packet’ thinking.
5.15 Redcar
Cool Strutter – 1 point EW – 20/1 (BF/BV/SJ/LAD) 18/1 general- UP 14/1- (close enough,an ok run)
A J Cook – 1 point EW – 25/1 (BV/WH) 20/1 (general) 3rd >16/1 SP …. (+5.25 points horse, +3.25 points race) *
*a decent run from the pair, AJ Cook getting into a place late in the day to leave a small profit on the race. El Principe who I narrowed down as the main danger – he was around 8s when looking, was backed into 6s while I was deliberating. I was never going to back three in a race like this – well, not until profits are much bigger maybe, and I couldn’t leave one of the biggies- if one of them had gone in having been left on the note-pad! Happy enough, again, with that analysis.
Well these are two ‘testy punts’ if ever you have seen them – and I was tempted to go 1/2 points EW- but it is a test section. I have not backed these with 1 pt EW of my own money, indeed I don’t think I am yet to do that. 1 point for me is £20, and in general I have been playing with 5s and 10s. This is an awful race and it is good to test myself at this lower level- as above it may be that longer term I restrict to Class 4 and above maybe, but there is only one way to find out if this class of race is just too unpredictable, and that is to ‘play in them as if live’.
Cool Strutter- well this one was once rated in the high 80s for Andrew Balding – indeed in August last year he came a close 3rd, over 6f, in a C4 handicap off OR 80. With the claim he is off 60 here. This trainer will get wins from this horse, I have no doubt about that. 1/18, 5 places on turf, the only win in a maiden, there are enough bits and pieces of form to suggest she will pick up a race or three at some point. 3 runs ago, in May this year, for Balding, he came a 3 length 3rd in a C4, off 67. On his first start for this trainer he didn’t do too much but I wonder whether the softer ground there was far from ideal. His last race is most interesting. He raced prominently enough but to my eye looked to pull rather hard for the first half. He travelled into the race well enough and came with some sort of challenge two from home. He then had traffic problems and got no sort of run. The jockey gave up with 1 f to go ro so and stood up and let him coast home. That may be deceptive but he travelled like a horse that could do something soon. 6f, on good to firm (If forecasts/Clerk is to be believed they will escape rain today- we shall see) on this galloping/fair track may be just the ticket. The trainer is in form. Her track form isn’t great, 2/50- but, in C6, 6 furlong handicaps here she is 1/10, 2 places- which reads better! In a race where every horse has a question, where some have yet to win, I wanted one with a price I think. 20s allows you to overlook plenty. Given his past rating/yard/the odd run etc, he should win a C6 handicap at some point. Interesting.
A J Cook is more of a punt – the trainer is in form, which caught the eye – along with C Fairhurst the only 3 in the race with a Geegeez green ‘in form’ symbol. The jockey booking also caught the eye – he hasn’t ridden him since 2013 and this horse had had a lot of claiming/inexperienced jockeys on his back in recent runs. There is a small chance the booking of a pro may bring out more. Now he is only 1/32, 6 places in his career but he is hitting that age where some sprinters can take off- 6. He has ran over 5f here and that Thirsk run in May last year offers some hope. Beaten a head, caught late, over 6f on good to firm, off OR55. 5lb lower here I suppose I am asking him to repeat that run. If he does I think he out-runs these odds. His runs this season- well he refused to race in the first one, so his start two starts ago was effectively his seasonal reappearance and he may have needed it. Last time out was more promising, on ground probably softer than ideal. (his best form I think has been on good to firm). This is a very weak race for me and he just looked interesting at the prices.
In a race without loads of pace these two could race prominently. They are clearly pokes, and both could fall out the back of the tv, but I thought I would have a go.
You can make cases for plenty. The fav has an obvious chance given his profile but still has some questions. El Principe (WON) would be the one I like near the top of the market I think, but then they keep buggering about with the distance and I don’t think they know his best trip. Jebel Tara- if repeated his previous two runs over this distance would have a chance – a repeat of those may be enough but he is 11, against quite a few younger ones here. Bar the bottom two in the market I wouldn’t be shocked if anything else won. It is that kind of race. Which one is in the right frame of mind!
**
That will do for sprint handicaps today. Analysing one poor C6 is enough for me at this time of the day! 🙂 The other one looks ok but a short price fav who is now getting the hang of things and a prominent O’Meara runner at 11/2. Lots of 3 and 4 year olds also. I will sit that one out.
***
TRAINERS IN FORM
(a reminder that this sections aims to highlighted handicap races where one or two trainer only are ‘in form’ as denoted by Geegeez Gold, which essentially looks at winners/placed horses in last 14 days and 30 days. The idea is to provide a useful starting point for further research)
This approach worked well on our last visit to a jumps track… +13 points…so with that in mind let’s head up to Perth…
2.45 – Now This Is It (‘3o’) – 25/1- UP
3.20 – Dr Moloney (30) 10/3 | Nefyn Bay (14,C1,C5) 3/1- both NR
3.55 – Gleann Na Ndochais (14) 10/1- UP
4.30 – Silver Gent (14,C1,C5) 16/1 – 3rd – | Glacial Rock (14) 25/1 UP
5.05 – Wyfield Rose (14) 5/2 NR
***
BIG MEETING NOTES: GOODWOOD + GALWAY
GOODWOOD
2.00- Communicator – ticks some boxes for Balding, all winners 12/1< to date.
2.35 – Platitude – Stoute Micro Qualifier is going off 9/2<
4.55 – Both of Johnstons, Kiltara / Desertoflife – both ‘micro angle’ qualifiers
5.25 – Afjaan – ticks some boxes for Haggas – looks short for a race of this nature.
GALWAY
3.35 – Conduct Yourself – Kiely good record here from limited no. of runners. Record over 16f is good (this is 16.5) I think all prev 16f races here may now be 16.5f – I missed a Mullins 8/1 winner yesterday, his record in non-handicaps over 16f was the micro angle. Race was 16/5f. Bugger. Hopefully some may have found him. I did say I may miss the odd one! Damn.
5.30 – All of De Bromheads aged 7+… albeit if the market is a guide they may all struggle. I haven’t looked at this race in any depth but surely If Road To Riches repeats any of his better G1 runs, he is going very close and could make 9/2 look generous. This looks like a plan you would think and compared to his usual opposition, this is a moderate bunch. Will class win the day. Lavelle’s could run well also, and looks interesting given his profile and the form of the trainer. In a race I have no strong views in, I may have a small dart at those two.
6.05 – My Painter- Hogan does well here from limited runers.
6.40 – Aspen – Again same for Wachman albeit he is best in maidens he has had a handicap winner.
***
Post Complete
25 Responses
Ive not really done it the ‘Josh’ treatment but looking at the Galway Plate tomorrow I got the following:
13/18 were 1st or 2nd LTO
12/18 were ages 6 or 7
16/18 carried 10st13lbs or less
13/18 Has 0 or 1 runs this season
Personally given there is arguably no one hotter at the moment than Emma Lavelle I have had a bet on Junction Fourteen. The other one on there is Shantou Flyer (which given my current form will likely be winning tomorrow)
Actually on reflection going to have a saver on Shantou Flyer. Trainer not been in the greatest of form recently but went very close in a Grade 1 at Punchestown and has a record of 12 in chases at the track including winning at the festival 12 months ago.
Good stuff Nick, I will have a browse but didn’t fancy tipping in the race- seems to be open enough and agree about Lavelle form. Definitely a yard to watch now, and in winter months – change of yard/scenery seems to be working well. Has always struggled for consistency but seems to be finding some now. She may have some well handicapped horses on her hands also.
I also think SDS and Mick Channon will have a good day tomorrow. Particularly Arnold Lane in the 17:25 who has an excellent course record and is one of the only front runners in the field. Hoping Silvestre manages to get him out front and he leads from start to finish. I also like Harrison in the 14:35. Will also be having a saver on Twin Sails in the 17:25. Good draw, gets the 3 year old weight allowance and wasnt far away from Galileo Gold last year on his only run at the track. Ivory is 3/9 in the last week and the O’Neill booking is eye catching given he has only ridden 5 times for his old boss on the flat since the start of 2013 (1/5, 3 places). Jockey also in very good form.
Nick I am with you on that one… I will post musings below
Dagleish / Makin Qualifier Redcar 3.30pm Livella Fella
Good Luck
Have a fun Wednesday of this week’s racing bonanza everybody!
Couldnt resist a couple of trends pokes in the big one in Ireland: The King of Brega (interesting on recent franked form) and Killer Crow (interesting on past form)
Josh,
Both your sprint picks, Bowson Fred & Harry Hurricane, ran personal bests yesterday – they ran well against the cdg horses Confessional & Humidor, as did Thesme – all 4yo’s seem a good crop at present? The winner, Boom The Groom, has a good record when the money is down, was one of those Nick Mordin Qualifiers (a 3yo who beats his elders latter half of the season) from Nov14 & clocked a well fast time back in Feb – he improved his personal best too. Was a quality race & I think some winners will be coming from it.
Talking of C6 – & maybe 7. Nick Mordin produced a system which showed u could make money backing the most recent highest rpr but I have noticed a last time out highest speed figure does alright in this lower class? (Could do with some investigation?
Interesting as always Andy – yep the two picks should still be progressive so good to see your stats etc support that – Boom The Groom ran a cracker from where he was and, as Kirby said after, with more luck/better draw/rain staying away he would have won the Epsom Dash. I suspect they may aim for that again- I wont label him as a downhill Goodwood/Epsom horse just yet, but that is where is he looks to perform best. Yes a very good race, run at a proper gallop to my eye. Poor old Thesme – hopefully she can win at some point, agonising for connections. They do look a good bunch.
Come the autumn we will have to get ourselves a list of these 3 year olds winning against older horses etc. An interesting angle and makes perfect sense – was that in one of his books (i have two of them) or somewhere else?
Yep I need to look into C5/6 separately maybe and see what I can find.
No, it was one his last Weekender articles, I thought I had tweeted it years ago but can’t find it so just dug it up – I’ve been keeping notes of 3yo’s who beat fields of 10 or more runners but seems the actual system is 16? Fewer but more select band of qualifiers> https://twitter.com/themastarata/status/758192475995529216
Andy – Interesting angle from Nick Mordin if i get a chance next week I will try and monitor it. is it just Class 6 and handicaps?
Hi josh glad to see you share Matt over at geegeez video.worth a watch.so far over the last week I’ve had 2 18/1 winners and missed a chance of 29/1 off save the bees (odds was so big and the stats so perfect I thought something must be wrong lol) live and learn
Hi Jamie, yep a superb piece of kit and the new additions on the pace/draw side are just superb – me using them may coincide with an upturn in form also- not sure! But, being able to see the historic record of horses that led or were held up, at any given track, over the distance etc is so valuable. Oh dont mention Save The Bees! I suspect we had the same thought process and seeing him win was rather agonising! But, we shall just have to wait until the next one.
I was amazed at the odds of Save the Bees maybe its previous course form 0/5 had a lot to do with it but there was genuine excuses held up twice took on for the lead and out of season october run….He clearly is a horse that thrives on his racing in July / August and if he has an easy lead very tough to pass…I would have thought Pontefract would be perfect for him going off in front just like Mr Wolf used to do here so was delighted to be matched at 28.0 i’ll be surprised if thats his last win before August is out.
Kodi Bear, whose sire Kodiac had a double on yesterday’s card, appears to be the cdg horse for the 3.10 Sussex Stakes & after clocking a whopper over CD last August, comes out as top rated on my figures, he’s only 3lb below the top on rpr’s. His trainer nominated him as his One to Follow for the season not long back & fits cheek-pieces first time today…. 33/1
Handy little G Goodwood ebook from Timeform & Betfair:
http://en.calameo.com/read/000362465d8812232f36c?authid=z992mVCYcDfX
NEW WEEKLY DIARY POST HERE….
http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/weekly-diary-all-change-at-racing-to-profit/
Hopefully you enjoy the read…
Yep Josh i missed the Mullins winner at Galway what a price to!
Like the Hogan and Kiely horses a Galway horse although not sure how Conduct Yourself will do on he going but a modest each way play at 20s i’s worth finding out. Both Hogan horses look to be favoured by he going
Late as ever but here are a few musings on today’s racing. Going in with Nick on the Channon/ De Sousa combo a Goodwood – very good stats at the track.
GOODWOOD
2:00 – This Class 2 Handicap is one of the longest races on the flat in the racing calendar. A field of 20 are declared to go to post. Poyle Thomas represents the inform Ralph Beckett stable and the seven year old returned to the tack with an excellent 2nd at Newmarket, after 22 months off the track. he then showed the benefit of that run at the end of June when finishing 3rd in the 2m Northumberland Plate consolation race. Like many in the field the question is Will he stay the extra distance of 5f. Handicapped to close if he does for a trainer who had a winner here yesterday. The Cashel Man was a fast finishing 2nd at York on his seasonal reappearance but was then 4 lengths behind Poyle Thomas in 8th in the Newcastle race. Better than that run and like Ralph Beckett runner is capable of a bold show if he stays the trip. Of the two I would hazard a guess that the Cashel Man might be the more effective of this sort of distance but I like Poyle Thomas due to him being more unexposed over marathon trips .Both those horses are well found in the market, however, and it may pay to look a bit further down the betting for a bit more value. Diamond Joel could be that runner. Another with stamina to prove at this trip. The 4 year old is effective over 1m 6f but has only had a two goes over 2m. The first was on soft ground at Chester last year and his second go was on his seasonal reappearance 32 daya ago once again at Chester. Likes to make the running which is no bad thing even over a marathon trip at track like this. The race doesn’t look to have a lot of pace pressure so the Mick Channon trained horse could get a fairly uncontested lead. If he does he could be hard to peg back. At the prices he will for me as a modest each way play.
0.5pts each way – Diamond Joel – 16/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor
2:35 – The Group 3 Gordon Stakes over 1m 4f is considered a bit of a St Leger Trial. Sir Micheal Stoute has won 3 of the last 10 renewal’s of the race and he saddles two in Ulysses and Platitude. Meanwhile Aiden O’Brien saddles two in Shogun (Ryan Moore) and Major General. The return to 1m 4f will suit the latter and I can see him outrunning his odds here and being the best of the O’Brien pair. That four of the nine strong field and the one I like even more than Major General is another Mick Channon runner Harrison. The 3 year old is highly regarded by connections and although he was beaten 3 lengths by Platitude in a Royal Ascot handicap, that was on soft ground and he got closer to his rival on his next start In a Group 3 at Newmarket on good to firm ground. The selection was only short head into 3rd with the Stoute horse finishing 2nd. Platitude is a best priced 7/2 at the time of writing and Harrison is 9/1 from a pure price perspective I know the one I want to be with.
1pt win – Harrison – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
4:55 – Kiltara – As ever the Mark Johnston horses are in good nick at the meeting and he enhanced the micro system that I mentioned in yesterday’s email with a win by Fire Fighting in the first race on the card. The four year old returns from a 292 day break here which is unusual for one of the trainers runners but don’t let the absence put you off as he produced Blue wave to win at last years meeting and that one had been off the track for an even longer time. I am sure the trainer has had this race in mind for the filly. Lightly raced she has only had 5 starts including two wins. Was down the field in a valuable 1m 4f handicap at Newmarket on her last start of 2015 but prior to that had made all to win a 1m 4f handicap at Beverley. The selection is 6lb higher than when winning at Beverley but that day she looked a filly with improvement in her. Drop back to 1m 2f shouldn’t be a problem and as prominent runner she is ideally berthed in stall 2 to get to the front. One start at Goodwood came on soft going so we can excuse that run as she looks a better horse on decent ground. Not sure why she is such a big price 20/1 with Bet365 but I like her chances here and she can be backed each way to outrun her odds at 16/1 or better.
1pt each way – Kiltara – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 1/4 odds)
5:25 – Arnold Lane – The 7 year old is a modest each way selection. Has his own mind about the game but seems to like it around here. Was a C&D winner back in June and his record at the track is 1/6 4 places. Probably needs to get to the front like he did last time he ran here which wont be easy from stall 8. The other worthy of each way support is Fort Bastian one of two David O’Meara runners. The 7 year old probably isn’t as good as he once was but he is still capable of going close in these sort of races. Has form here was beaten less than 1 1/2 in the valuable Betfred Handicap here in 2014. Drops back in to Class 3 company today and won at Ayr last year on his last run in this grade, albeit over a mile. Now 1lb lower than for his last win so can go well. Stall 13 isn’t the best over this 7f trip and he will probably need a very strong pace to chase. Still I can see him finishing best of all if he gets it. Another for a modest each way play at the 16/1 available at William Hill
0.5pts each way – Arnold Lane – 16/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor
0.5pts each way – Fort Bastian – 16/1 @ William Hill
GALWAY PLATE PREVIEW
5:30 – The rain that fell on the track yesterday has complicated the race. Junction Fourteen could easily take the price back to the UK for the really inform Emma Lavelle stable. Still unexposed over fences he was a good winner at Sandown on his last start and could well be on a decent handicap mark despite going up 7lb in the weights. Ground not a problem but he has only had four starts over fences so does he have the experience for the race? One who ticks plenty of the boxes for a likely winner is the Colin Bowe trained Shantou Flyer. At six he is a year younger than the Emma Lavelle runner but has had 12 starts over fences, winning four of them including over C&D at last years Festival. Two starts back wasn’t disgraced in Grade 1 chase at Punchestown Festival over 3m 1f and last time was only beaten a nose in the Galway Plate Trial at Down Royal 40 days ago. Doesn’t need soft ground but the recent rain is in his favour more than many in the race as stamina will be more of a premium than on quicker ground. Up 4lb today which doesn’t look to excessive and he ticks the boxes marked track, distance and going and looks attractively priced at around 14/1.
0.5pt each way – Shantou Flyer – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes & Bet365 (paying 1 to 5 places
Great write up John. I am hoping it won’t be too difficult to get to the front from stall 8. 4 and 7 don’t go. Of the other 5 drawn inside him according to GG none have led any of their last 4 races so barring change in tactics SDS shouldn’t have too much of a fight to get to the front.
That was my thinking with Arnold Lane too…. fingers crossed but i will be surprised if he can’t get in the places.
Best of luck with today’s picks Josh had a little nibble on Aj cook (what a woman if people watch criminal minds she’s the blond dainty one ) also livella fella 3.30 afjann 5.25 and kaths legacy 8.10 presently working on a place pot combo just wondering do many readers do placepots at big meeting or has everyone started using the bet place markets provided for by most firms ?
Boom well done Josh
Head up wait for the right one and smash it up
Still foaming with Harley !!
But
Keep em Comin !!
Well Done Josh won exactly as you anticipated
Cheers gents. I hope you could sense some confidence from that final line, but at end of day it was a C6 handicap! Always nice when you can enjoy the last furlong of a flat race!
Pulled me out of the mire today BPG…….and the two sprint testers ran very well. Either could have won on another day…..
Well done Josh……I wish I could narrow down the squabs…I’d be well in. lol.