Free Daily Post: 25/07/16 (COMPLETE)

NEW!

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD TRAINER NOTES HERE>>>

 

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GALWAY FESTIVAL TRAINER NOTES HERE>>>

 

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TIPS

4.55 NA- No bet. This ‘should’ be won by one of the top 3 having had a look through but I can’t bring myself to tip any of them. Present Accepted is short at 2/1 for one stepping up in class and with an unknown over distance. Both look like they will be fine given the progress he is making/way he has run. But, I wouldn’t take twos, albeit given my judgement of those near the top of the market sometimes, he will probably now win like an even money shot. Free of Charge is running well but is now 0/7 over fences. This may be the opening he needs, a repeat of that last run will put him in the mix, but questions in the chasing game starting to mount. Celtic Intrigue- well he was backed the last day as if fit and that run was just a bit too  underwhelming for me. He ticks plenty of boxes here and if the blinkers work (returned, changes headgear a lot) he has the best form for me and would be the most likely winners. Still unexposed also. 5s couldn’t quite tempt me to tip him based on that last run, but he is a system bet – The Kerry Lee systems being some of the better ones in recent months! The others look up against it. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total: +13.5 points) 

 

4.10 Ayr- Lexis Boy – 9/2 (general) * UP

*Oh, somewhat bumped into one there. No excuses clearly, got an easy lead, but faded in the end. Wrong call there. Winner won like a 1/2 shot, making 3s look generous! Track position doesn’t matter when you have that much in hand/simply out-class the opposition. Clearly I didn’t foresee that, so something to ponder there. Moving on. Now for Moonlightnavigator to hack up.  

9/2 feels too big for this in form horse, from an in form yard, who will relish the ground again, has assured stamina, and assured ‘class’ for this level. He also races prominently. He ticks plenty of boxes here when others have a few questions. He just won LTO from a progressive rival, but they were miles ahead of the rest. In the past when he has won he has tended to hold his form well. This is only his 6th flat start as well, there could be more to come. McCain 3/14, 6 places in the last 14 days. He is the only trainer ‘in form’ in the race (by geegeez standards) I can’t see why this one isn’t the same price as the favourite here. I can see him galloping a lot of these into submission if in the same form. Ingleby Hollow’s two recent wins came from canny rides and in weaker races. He is unexposed and should be up the front again but hopefully our jockey doesn’t give him too much rope. Buonarroti could take this also but 3s is only just fair. He is usually held up which may not be ideal, even in this small field, and the headgear comes off, having worked LTO. Strange. The jockey is only 2/68 at the track also which would be a bit off-putting. Maybe he just doesn’t get the horses. Anyway, I thought the selection here ticked plenty of boxes and 9/2 stood out. 

 

8.10 Wolvs – Pivotman – 16/1 (bet365/Lad/betfS) 12/1 (general) UP*

*Well I have gone from excited to deflated in a matter of strides there! Looked like only a matter of time for one who stays further he left it to late…was there a late jockey change?…or am I imagining that – Martin Harley was down at one point I saw. Anyway, he left it too late – he clearly doesn’t have a massive turn of gear, a bit of trouble in running. If only he had bustled him out and tracked the leaders in second/third that may have been a different story. Disappointing. But, that’s the game. 

This lurker has caught my eye when flicking through the cards just now. He has only had 7 runs on the AW, 3 wins, placed a further 2 times. He is 2/5 at the track, with wins, won or placed 4/5 here. This is his first AW run in nearly a year, having come a closing 1 length 3rd off 80. He has also won here off 78. He comes here off 74. Gibbons is back on which also caught the eye, esp back on the AW. Trainer Jockey are 26/108,57 places in AW handicaps here. They are 11/37,18 places over this distance here, in handicaps. +38 points. Also, the blinkers return. Very interesting. And he is drawn low. When he has gone well here he has made all and I have a suspicion, having been held up out the back on the flat, that he tries to do the same here. I hope he does. That would also be repeating a pattern in November 2014…where he turned up having been held up numerous times on the flat and had done nothing. He turned up here and with the blinkers back on, made all and won at 28/1. Very interesting indeed. 

It could be that this hunch is wide of the mark and there are plenty of interesting ones in here. The class is fine and he has won over further here. There is a chance he could lead if he wanted to, and make all. I just hope connections can get on at a decent price, and decide to go for it 🙂 He has won being held up, so that wouldn’t be disastrous but wily old Easterby looks like he may have set one up here. That’s what it looks like on paper at least. if he wins that may be my finest piece of detective work…but time will tell! Trainer form could be better but their Bajan Rebel ran well for me today so maybe they are about to fire them in again.  

 

NOTE: I pondered MOONLIGHTNAVIGATOR in the 4.40 Ayr and I have had a small nibble on him at 11/2- mainly as I tipped him in this section 2 starts ago, as being well-handicapped, showing up well against race conditions and the trainer being in form. His last two runs have screamed out that a return to 8f is needed. He gets that here and I don’t think he will be far away. But, I can’t work out if he is just slow, lacking any real turn of gear- I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple get away from him near the front again and he closes late all the way to the line, never quite getting there- indicating he needs 10f! One of those horses maybe. I also think this looks a bit stronger than those recent races from memory – the two below him in the market would have good chances and the Holmes horse – Optima Petamus at 14s, also caught my eye. I decided against ‘tipping’ in this- when originally flagged two starts ago he was 8s, and is a general 5s here. He may just gallop to victory, and I hope he does, but I wouldn’t be putting him up with total confidence at the prices. I feel much more assured about Lexis Boy – time will tell if I have made the right call!!

Well at least I got that one right, leaving him alone on here. I did throw 1/2 a point at him but I can’t see me backing him again- he just looks slow,no excuses there really. He keeps bumping into one and that lack of gears is a problem. He will go in at some point no doubt. 

That is all for this section. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

K Lee Chasers (12/1<) 

4.55 NA: Celtic Intrigue 2nd 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

3.05 Ayr: Lady Cordie (20/1<) NR

 

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

(running total: 5/22, 7 places… +44.8 points) 

None today. 

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

None today. 

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GALWAY

I will highlight a few horses of interest from the notes. Remember these are just a ‘stats way in’ – I haven’t bothered to look at  the actual horses, which I would advise you to do before getting involved- having said that some of you may think some of the stats are worth following systematically. Also, I may have missed something….

5.45 –

Tony Martin – SarwistanUP / Lord De Beaufai 2nd 20/1 – is this 16f, or 17f, he has a good record over 16f, 26+ days off also for both. The latter is dropping 2 or more furlongs I think also. Caution, as his have been ill – how these run, esp the former, could be an indication of whether his may be worth following this week or not. 

De Bromhead – Beckwith Star NR

Love- Solar Heat UP

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6.50 – Rathbrigde Raven (Prendergast) All winners 12/1< so far, 0/13,1 p above this so far. A guide, clearly. ‘DNQ’

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7.20 –

Rogers… Benkei (12/1<, Top 3 LTO – a couple of possible ticks there) 3rd 9/1

Martin – Ted Vale (all flat handicappers worth noting,usually, 0/9, 3 places Aged 6+ so far) 2nd 14/1 

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7.50 – 

Prendergast – Jefferson Davis (again 12/1< a good guide) ‘DNQ’

8.20 – 

W Mullins – Robin Des Foret – 16.5 f technically. 2nd 4/1

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We shall see if they point the way at all. Good Luck. 

That is all for today’s post. 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

42 Comments

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  • Well done with Mishaal mate… had a small saver on him 🙂 Reputation was a bit unlucky he clearly is well suited to a stfff 6f

    Pivotman – I have been waiting for him to go back to Wolverhampton…. looks to good to miss.

    Now to time to look at your Galway stats

    Eyecatcher_John 7 months ago Reply


    • Thanks John, Yep Reputation very unlucky but paid for a tardy start I think – I expected him to be close to the winner, and if he had got a better position he would have won. Clearly I wouldn’t have minded either way. I doubt the market will miss him NTO but you never know. Pivotman is a bit of a punt but everything looks right to out run those odds.
      Well done with your chase winner- a few gasps of breath watching him no doubt but did it well.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


      • Yeah he can take a liberty or two haha…. much improved since he moved to Longsdon… I was just a tad worried about the rain but there was no problems in the end

        Eyecatcher_John 7 months ago Reply


    • Reputation was heading for a gap and caught the heels of the winner, very unlucky…I think it would have won…It’s in my tracker now.

      I’ve been backing the test horses in sprints Josh so I’m happy….saves me doing any work. lol.

      Tony Mc. 7 months ago Reply


  • Qualifier for the Dagleish / Makin combo Ayr 3.40 Sattelac

    Steve

    Steve 7 months ago Reply


    • has to be Good or Good to Firm I thought.

      Peter Gee 7 months ago Reply


      • Hi Peter

        I used this years stats only running at 50% posted on the 20/07/2016
        It seems the distance is the overriding factor

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve 7 months ago Reply


  • Thanks for the Galway Guide Josh, there is one trainer none of us know anything about. Joseph O’Brien.

    I don’t think he has many runners but I bet he has winners.

    I think I will leave any race that he has runners in.

    Steve 7 months ago Reply


    • Its Joseph Patrick O’Brien’s first season as a registered trainer – don’t know if he is related to the mighty Aiden (or Vincent of sainted memory) but by Irish trainers standards he’s having a great season – 21 winners at a 19% strike rate and a level stake profit of 28.25 at BSP..All of his profit basically came from one winner at 33-1 at Gowran Park in May. Looking at the prices of his runners he must be related to Aiden, for somebody nobody has heard of a lot of his runners go off as favourites.. – 30 out of 111 by my reckoning.

      Steve Veasey 7 months ago Reply


      • Edit: Yes, its the same Joseph O’Brien that used to ride the second or third string for his dad, no wonder all his horses are short prices, they all came from Coolmore!

        Steve Veasey 7 months ago Reply


  • Yep, He is Aidens son, rode plenty of winners around here from what I remember, and he is the sort of person that when you think you have found a good stat his horse comes and gets you.

    Steve 7 months ago Reply


  • Skybet giving money back upto £25 first race 2.00 Goodwoood tomorrow.

    Andy Silvers 7 months ago Reply


  • hi josh, interesting to see notes about pivotman, I have got £150 win on it!

    malcolm pendrey 7 months ago Reply


    • Well if I am correct, the last time our stars aligned on the all-weather with another of you big bets (or maybe usual for you!) was Langley Vale! I would take a repeat of that. Everything feels right, the story makes sense, and money continues to come I think. Hopefully he blasts out – if he does lead he is here to win for me- and they don’t see which way he goes. Given his assured stamina over further if he is a few lengths ahead turning for home, that may be that.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


  • hi josh, now that I have read your notes, I have put another £30 win on pivotman

    malcolm pendrey 7 months ago Reply


    • Luckily I am adept at putting enough pressure on myself without trying to think what others may be betting!! Good Luck.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


  • hi josh fantastic blog, written by a man who has been there and got the tshirt, i was looking at the 2.45 n/a , D BRIDGEWATER IN CLASS 5 HCAPS CHAASES is

    All Selections 7bets 5wins 71.4% 339.0% 6 85.7% 265.9% and when tom scudamore is riding it is

    All Selections 4 bets 3 wins , he is running EDGAR in this , i realise the price is a bit shorter 4/1 at the moment than you like , but for me i find it acceptable.
    love all your write ups josh class in a glass.

    muttley 7 months ago Reply


    • Hi Muttley, thanks for your kind words, appreciated. Glad you like the read. I do go for long periods at times where I forget where the t-shirt is, but in general it is heading in the right direction, so I won’t complain too much. (albeit I am conscious that there are people who have followed the Tips since end of Feb, and wont have followed the sprint testing zone – and I owe those folk a few points, but we will get there)

      Yep solid stats they are… I do wonder if he has the speed for this trip around here, on this ground. There are plenty of front runners in here mind – depends whether he just tracks them. He also likes to jump out to the right. 4/1 can be find, all depends on the race/horse etc – and I have been guilty at times of not paying enough attention to those near the top of the market. You can’t be too strict with these things. Given my niggles about pace, and distance- that would make me think 4s, 7/2 may be short enough. But, it’s a game of opinion. I hope he bolts up for you.

      A quick – 1 minute glance – makes me think Accessallareas and Maizy Missle are a bit over priced. Yes they are getting on but they are in form at least, while being under attack from younger legs.

      Good Luck.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


  • GLORIOUS GOODWOOD TRAINER NOTES…

    HERE…. http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Glorious-Goodwood-2016.pdf

    Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Josh, I see J Portman gets a mention – I have gone for Balmoral Castle EW in the first

      Andy Silvers 7 months ago Reply


  • thanks josh, hope that Tom Scudamore bounces him out early to try and run the finish out of the opposition. He stays much further than this and must ensure he brings his guaranteed stamina into play.

    muttley 7 months ago Reply


    • yea I agree with that, I was hoping when I looked at the pace that he was the only front runner, and I may have been more tempted for an interest nibble – a few like to get on with it. Agree, if after first few fences he is in front, in a rhythm, you will have some fun for a few minutes and he may well stay all the way – on flip side- if they go to quick and Scu uses his brain- if he is quick enough to just track the pace his extra stamina may ensure he picks off the pieces near the end. I will watch with interesting. An intriguing race.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


  • SPOT ON JOSH,, edgar was taken of his feet, didnt have the pace to hold a position , good call mate

    muttley 7 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh / Guys

    Leading on from yesterday and my post on Josephine Gordon I thought I would look into another promising young apprentice Adam Mcnamara.
    Up until today Adam has only had 209 rides with 26 winners at 12.44%. Richard Fahey is clearly an admirer and has ridden the bulk of his rides for him with figures of 131 rides 17 winners at 12.98% and at present there is no real angle in via class etc to see a profitable trend with him….However as with Josephine a couple of other trainers have noted his talents and that 5lb claim no doubt and have used him with success….namely JJ Quinn & Philip Mcbride

    JJ Quinn 9 rides, 4 wiiners, 5 places 44.44% S/R
    P J Mcbride 2 rides, 2 winners, 2 places 100% S/R

    Interestingly with P J Mcbride they were 2 different horses at 2 different tracks so maybe when he has a live one he wants to use the young lads claim & abilities of course, Although this is a very small sample in my view its relevant, its now and to latch on early is where the biggest profits are… so to summarise

    Adam Mcnamara rides for JJ Quinn & P J McBride looks like 11 rides, 6 wins, 7 places, 54.55% S/R

    Using the £1000 bank 2% stakes on bank would be now £1921.46 moving forward

    I think like Josephine its one to keep an eye on and will no doubt evolve as more trainers use his services hope this helps

    Steve

    Steve 7 months ago Reply


    • Great stuff Steve. Look forward to keeping an eye on those.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


    • Terrific stuff Steve, and much appreciated.

      Tony Mc. 7 months ago Reply


  • What a pathetic piece of jockeyship from martin Harley….absolutely useless….I feel sorry for all your hard work on this one Josh.

    Tony Mc. 7 months ago Reply


    • Yes, what happened to Mr Gibbons?? Gutted – Harley doesn’t know the horse, but christ he stays further, what the hell was he doing holding onto him for so long, should have been active on him, get a position- should have ridden him more prominently. Rarely get angry at rides etc, but given how he travelled that is somewhat deflating. Onwards. Gibbons on and now +28.5 points. Damn.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


  • Poor ride from gibbons there on pivotman , even pulled it from getting a place ,

    Muttley 7 months ago Reply


    • Gibbons wasnt on him in the end, unsure why- but he should have been. Harley had never been on him before – he wouldn’t have the gears to pick up in that short space of time. Useless. Should have got him closer/ridden much sooner and used his stamina. Moving on. But, bollocks.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


    • I didnt know change of jockey just come in, sorry graeme for the expletives , they were aimed at harley

      Muttley 7 months ago Reply


  • Pivotman – Not much room traded evens in running and unplaced
    Just nothing running for you at the moment Josh
    Keep em Comin

    Goodwood beckons

    – Nice winner for Gary P tonight 20/1 into 7/1 – Moore knows when to press the button with a horse

    Joe 7 months ago Reply


    • It was, to be blunt, a bloody awful ride. That is the most ‘unlucky’ I ever recall being there- was cantering all over them and jockey did nothing. Didn’t cease the initiative.
      Anyway, I am going to get back to the calm tones of Kevin McCloud on grand designs, that may help haha

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


  • shocking ride. geezzzzz sure hes gonna win the next race

    Daniel 7 months ago Reply


    • yea, he won’t be 16/1 sadly. And he may not react to blinkers in same way again. I’m still gutted. So right, yet so far away haha. This is called group therapy I think.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


  • No Josh….That riding was deliberate….he dropped in behind a wall of horses, and showed no response when a gap opened…he was doing nothing to enhance the horses position…He should be hauled up in front of the stewards…BUT DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH…wankers.

    Tony Mc. 7 months ago Reply


    • I tend to agree – I have rarely seen a jockey so static on one travelling so well- all over them. He should have created space. Right, I am now moving on. (after watching the replay!)

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


      • josh i meant he rides the next horse to win and thats what happens everytime. bonhommie wins from the front wolverhampton last race. typical notice thats what happens another example detorri on magical memory strange ride then goes on to give golden steps a nice ride to win in the next race.

        Daniel 7 months ago Reply


        • Yes! I watched it spitting at the same time….lol

          Tony Mc. 7 months ago Reply


  • to me it was a classic didn’t want it to win ride done most of its winning in august probably be running again soon with gibbons onboard and romp home was the money from connections or just us punters?

    antony church 7 months ago Reply


    • Well he was put in at 25s,clipped to 16s then to 12s,8s then back out a tad. He was there to win. You cant travel that well. Would go down as most obvious of all time. Plus, because he was so obviously going well wont be much of a price nto. Another two months on the flat maybe,hack up in November.

      Josh Wright 7 months ago Reply


      • On my AW figures the top-rated won, on my flat figures, my top-rated came 2nd – both 3yo’s, so he may well have been beaten by the weight-for-age scale as well as the draw, draw 1 @ 9f has won once from last 323 races but either way he is much better handicapped on the flat & should be winning there imho, his last two wins have come in amateur rider events?

        Andy Silvers 7 months ago Reply


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