4.55 NA- No bet. This ‘should’ be won by one of the top 3 having had a look through but I can’t bring myself to tip any of them. Present Accepted is short at 2/1 for one stepping up in class and with an unknown over distance. Both look like they will be fine given the progress he is making/way he has run. But, I wouldn’t take twos, albeit given my judgement of those near the top of the market sometimes, he will probably now win like an even money shot. Free of Charge is running well but is now 0/7 over fences. This may be the opening he needs, a repeat of that last run will put him in the mix, but questions in the chasing game starting to mount. Celtic Intrigue- well he was backed the last day as if fit and that run was just a bit too underwhelming for me. He ticks plenty of boxes here and if the blinkers work (returned, changes headgear a lot) he has the best form for me and would be the most likely winners. Still unexposed also. 5s couldn’t quite tempt me to tip him based on that last run, but he is a system bet – The Kerry Lee systems being some of the better ones in recent months! The others look up against it.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total: +13.5 points)
4.10 Ayr- Lexis Boy – 9/2 (general) * UP
*Oh, somewhat bumped into one there. No excuses clearly, got an easy lead, but faded in the end. Wrong call there. Winner won like a 1/2 shot, making 3s look generous! Track position doesn’t matter when you have that much in hand/simply out-class the opposition. Clearly I didn’t foresee that, so something to ponder there. Moving on. Now for Moonlightnavigator to hack up.
9/2 feels too big for this in form horse, from an in form yard, who will relish the ground again, has assured stamina, and assured ‘class’ for this level. He also races prominently. He ticks plenty of boxes here when others have a few questions. He just won LTO from a progressive rival, but they were miles ahead of the rest. In the past when he has won he has tended to hold his form well. This is only his 6th flat start as well, there could be more to come. McCain 3/14, 6 places in the last 14 days. He is the only trainer ‘in form’ in the race (by geegeez standards) I can’t see why this one isn’t the same price as the favourite here. I can see him galloping a lot of these into submission if in the same form. Ingleby Hollow’s two recent wins came from canny rides and in weaker races. He is unexposed and should be up the front again but hopefully our jockey doesn’t give him too much rope. Buonarroti could take this also but 3s is only just fair. He is usually held up which may not be ideal, even in this small field, and the headgear comes off, having worked LTO. Strange. The jockey is only 2/68 at the track also which would be a bit off-putting. Maybe he just doesn’t get the horses. Anyway, I thought the selection here ticked plenty of boxes and 9/2 stood out.
8.10 Wolvs – Pivotman – 16/1 (bet365/Lad/betfS) 12/1 (general) UP*
*Well I have gone from excited to deflated in a matter of strides there! Looked like only a matter of time for one who stays further he left it to late…was there a late jockey change?…or am I imagining that – Martin Harley was down at one point I saw. Anyway, he left it too late – he clearly doesn’t have a massive turn of gear, a bit of trouble in running. If only he had bustled him out and tracked the leaders in second/third that may have been a different story. Disappointing. But, that’s the game.
This lurker has caught my eye when flicking through the cards just now. He has only had 7 runs on the AW, 3 wins, placed a further 2 times. He is 2/5 at the track, with wins, won or placed 4/5 here. This is his first AW run in nearly a year, having come a closing 1 length 3rd off 80. He has also won here off 78. He comes here off 74. Gibbons is back on which also caught the eye, esp back on the AW. Trainer Jockey are 26/108,57 places in AW handicaps here. They are 11/37,18 places over this distance here, in handicaps. +38 points. Also, the blinkers return. Very interesting. And he is drawn low. When he has gone well here he has made all and I have a suspicion, having been held up out the back on the flat, that he tries to do the same here. I hope he does. That would also be repeating a pattern in November 2014…where he turned up having been held up numerous times on the flat and had done nothing. He turned up here and with the blinkers back on, made all and won at 28/1. Very interesting indeed.
It could be that this hunch is wide of the mark and there are plenty of interesting ones in here. The class is fine and he has won over further here. There is a chance he could lead if he wanted to, and make all. I just hope connections can get on at a decent price, and decide to go for it 🙂 He has won being held up, so that wouldn’t be disastrous but wily old Easterby looks like he may have set one up here. That’s what it looks like on paper at least. if he wins that may be my finest piece of detective work…but time will tell! Trainer form could be better but their Bajan Rebel ran well for me today so maybe they are about to fire them in again.
NOTE: I pondered MOONLIGHTNAVIGATOR in the 4.40 Ayr and I have had a small nibble on him at 11/2- mainly as I tipped him in this section 2 starts ago, as being well-handicapped, showing up well against race conditions and the trainer being in form. His last two runs have screamed out that a return to 8f is needed. He gets that here and I don’t think he will be far away. But, I can’t work out if he is just slow, lacking any real turn of gear- I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple get away from him near the front again and he closes late all the way to the line, never quite getting there- indicating he needs 10f! One of those horses maybe. I also think this looks a bit stronger than those recent races from memory – the two below him in the market would have good chances and the Holmes horse – Optima Petamus at 14s, also caught my eye. I decided against ‘tipping’ in this- when originally flagged two starts ago he was 8s, and is a general 5s here. He may just gallop to victory, and I hope he does, but I wouldn’t be putting him up with total confidence at the prices. I feel much more assured about Lexis Boy – time will tell if I have made the right call!!
Well at least I got that one right, leaving him alone on here. I did throw 1/2 a point at him but I can’t see me backing him again- he just looks slow,no excuses there really. He keeps bumping into one and that lack of gears is a problem. He will go in at some point no doubt.
That is all for this section.
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
4.55 NA: Celtic Intrigue 2nd
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
3.05 Ayr: Lady Cordie (20/1<) NR
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total: 5/22, 7 places… +44.8 points)
TRAINERS IN FORM
I will highlight a few horses of interest from the notes. Remember these are just a ‘stats way in’ – I haven’t bothered to look at the actual horses, which I would advise you to do before getting involved- having said that some of you may think some of the stats are worth following systematically. Also, I may have missed something….
Tony Martin – SarwistanUP / Lord De Beaufai 2nd 20/1 – is this 16f, or 17f, he has a good record over 16f, 26+ days off also for both. The latter is dropping 2 or more furlongs I think also. Caution, as his have been ill – how these run, esp the former, could be an indication of whether his may be worth following this week or not.
De Bromhead – Beckwith Star NR
Love- Solar Heat UP
6.50 – Rathbrigde Raven (Prendergast) All winners 12/1< so far, 0/13,1 p above this so far. A guide, clearly. ‘DNQ’
Rogers… Benkei (12/1<, Top 3 LTO – a couple of possible ticks there) 3rd 9/1
Martin – Ted Vale (all flat handicappers worth noting,usually, 0/9, 3 places Aged 6+ so far) 2nd 14/1
Prendergast – Jefferson Davis (again 12/1< a good guide) ‘DNQ’
W Mullins – Robin Des Foret – 16.5 f technically. 2nd 4/1
We shall see if they point the way at all. Good Luck.
That is all for today’s post.