Free Daily Post: 24/07/16 (COMPLETE)

 

 

Galway: I will be spending some of Sunday trying to find any trainer micro systems that may be worth following. I am yet to look but as it starts on Monday I had better hurry up. Goodwood notes are coming along and these will be ready by Monday afternoon with any luck. 

 

TIPS

5.20 Uttoxeter 

BEST BOY BARNEY – 1 point win – 9/1 (Bet365/WH) 17/2 (PP) 8/1 (general) UP*

*Ah, well who knows what the ground is at Uttoxeter but in all honesty, given he was only 0/4,1 place on soft/good to soft, given everything else I would have still taken the chance at 9s I think. (given didn’t think there would be that much soft in it) Backed into 4/1 he was never in it. Unlike the last race he didn’t have the pace to get up there- he tried, but the jockey soon accepted it and tucked in. He never looked that happy, never jumped fluently, and that was that. I won’t give up on him yet- next time on proper fast ground and an easy lead assured (clearly I thought he would be able to be up there here). Still, at least the shortlist of two found the winner and hopefully some may have had a saver. -1 point for the results though. 

Well I am really looking forward to this old boy running around here. Only two handicap chase starts ago he was running off 129 – in autumn last year, and today he comes here off 107. In April last year he dominated/destroyed a C3 field around Kemtpon – a field of winter jumpers. This is a decent horse and unlike Firm Order who had some well being questions (turns out ground was good to firm at Worcester when he ran,and I don’t think he enjoyed it one bit,I think that’s the excuse I will use! 🙂 ) I don’t think this one does as much. He has spent some time hunter chasing but in three runs hasn’t had ideal conditions – namely softening ground and/or not far enough. That run at Uttoxeter was decent, considering the trip was maybe on the short side, and he led for a long way, unable to quicken when challenged in the last couple of furlongs. His last run, back in a regular handicap chase, was better than it appears on paper. Firstly it was his first run for 55 days and it may have blown some cobwebs away. Secondly he was absolutely killed trying to get the lead for me. He was hustled, bustled and ridden to get o the front for a good furlong plus- that would have taken energy out of him. He also didn’t get an easy lead,but kept trying to force it. AS they turned in those exertions took their toll. There was also some rain about and good to soft is ok, but far from ideal. Any soft is far from ideal for him. He is also now 0/3, 0 places in handicap chases at Worcester and maybe just doesn’t like the place. 

I think he still retains ability but this race will put that to the test. He relished quick ground and being able to lead/race prominently. I think he should be able to do that here – him and Big Sound are the two who like to get on with it and there are a couple who may be ridden to get the trip (Longsdons and Jonjos) I actually think these two could dominate this race all the way round and I may put on a ‘fun’ forecast for Big Sound to beat BBB. Provided they don’t kill each other up top -and Big Sound’s Jockey has shown she is happy to take a lead – everything else ‘could’ struggle to get into this. 

So, all conditions are fine and this is much calmer waters. It is only his 23rd chase start as well, for a 10 year old, and he could have more miles on the clock for his age. Trainer and jockey are in decent form, the former 2/8, 4 places in the last 2 weeks. BBB is also 2/4, 3 places in chases at the track, 1/2 over course and distance. He is a great jumper at his best and he stays. There are the possibility of some showers, and hopefully on what is good to firm ground in places it won’t go soft. Hopefully they stay away but 9s allows that risk to be taken. I think, esp after the non runners (all 3 of whom were high up in my thinking) this is a ridiculous to my eye. IF he can poach an easy lead early, we could have some fun here. 

The dangers…

Well Big Sound is priced up accordingly and 3/1 may still be ok actually, in the context of this race. With the claim this mark is fine – he has own off 108 around here. That win two starts ago was decent – he was well ridden there and I think he benefited from a pace burn up – he somewhat picked up the pieces having decided to sit off the scorching pace that day. The second, who we backed NTO, didn’t do much for the form at Worc. But, he is decent around here. He is in form (hurdles run was fine but will be much better back over fences), jumps well, handles conditions, and stays. Along with the selection, I think they are the only two in the race you can say that about. 

I cannot have Foundation Man and Hepijeu at their prices given the stamina questions they have. I can’t see much, on form, and on breeding, which screams they will stay, esp for the latter. Interestingly Johnson is now 0/21, 9 places on Longsdon handicap chases in last 730 days. No reason not to back him, clearly, but interesting. He is flat bred and I am struggling to see him stay this. Foundation Man may have more stamina but has a bit to prove. May be a horse without a trip – he can get outpaced over 20f, but doesn’t quite look to stay further. I am happy for either to beat me, esp Foundation Man who 4s seems skinning enough, given that major question. He hasn’t had many goes at the trip, and this is calmer waters than when he has tried, but I would like to see him go an do it before he carries my money. The others have a few too many questions to answer for me. The Scudamore horse won weak ‘northern’ chases for previous trainer and ran flat LTO. He will need more and the trainer is now 0/27 here. Pena Dorada – usually runs well around Cartmel so that last run is more alarming. It wasnt great. Solway Legend has something to prove after that last run in ideal conditions and is 0/4, 1 p in ‘todays conditions’ chase,distance,ground,class. Distracted is interesting and could come on from that last run – but she dropped out a bit too tamely for my liking there and needs to take a big step forward. She may try and push the pace also, but I am unsure if in the form to hold it for too long. Her best form also in deeper ground. Some market support, for a traine in form, would make me take more note. 

So, that’s it. Hopefully the rain stays away and BBB can lead them all a merry dance. And if he doesn’t he will come second to Big Sound. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None today. Have’t looked, and there is enough going on etc.  

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

3.25 Ponte: Initwin (9/1<) 

3.50 Carl: Toffee Apple (15/2<)

4.35 Ponte: Evangelical (9/1<)

5.30 Carl: War Department (15/2<) 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

(remember this is a test section. Running total … 4/19, 5 places… +33.5 point) 

4.35 Pontefract

Reputation – 1.5 points win – 6/1 (general) 3rd (unlucky but slow away,held up,and paid price. I wont complain…)

Mishaal – 1.5 points win – 7/1 (general 4 firms)  WON 4/1 SP. (led all the way, lovely) (+10.5 points on race) 

(a change in staking given the odds – I feel a bit dirty betting EW under 8/1, when no 1/4 odds etc! Thats just me, I believe some punters love an EW bet at all rates down to 7/2. Not me.) 

These two look interesting for me, on a pace/draw front and on a jockey booking front. They also represent the only two trainers ‘in form’ as measured by geegeez. 

Reputation – is lightly enough raced and was good enough to win a York maiden over this trip. Only 3 this is his 10th flat start. Last time, in the first time visor, they raced him more prominently and he led for some way, over 7f. With SDS booked, and in trap 3, I just wonder whether they will try and make all over this stiff 6f. That is what I hope they do anyway. Hopefully he has the gate speed/early speed and he can get out and lead. The trainer is in form, and as I say the booking of SDS caught the eye. He is still in a ‘could be anything’ category and maybe this drop down to 6f will suit. Two things different – jockey booking/drop in trip – he is also versatile ground wise it would seem (could be some showers here also). This is a calmer race than some of those he has competed in. 

Mishaal – another interesting one who is coming down the weights. He is clearly better on the all-weather but he has been running well and given some past exploits over further I wondered whether this stiffer 6f would suit. Tudhope is on for only the second time and placed on him when last riding – 17 runs ago. He has gone close in C2s on the all weather, and ran well in the Ayr Bronze cup. He wasn’t well positioned LTO for a race where the leader stayed all the way, and he ran well before that also at Donny in a big furlong handicap. I should think they will try and make plenty of use of him here and hopefully these two can be up there all the way – and we shall see which one can hold on!! 

At the prices they looked most interesting. I can see why there have been nibbles for Yeeoow and a big run would not shock – 1/4, 4 places at the track – he clearly likes it here. He is very well handicapped and even more so with the claim. But, he just seems a bit too out of sorts for me – going with sprinters in form has worked well recently and for now I will stick with that formular. Both also happen to have the best geegeez speed ratings in the race also. 

 

5.30 Carlisle 

Bajan Rebel – 1 pt EW– 10/1 (BV/Lad) 9/1 (general)  2nd 7/1 SP (10p R4) (+0.8 points on race) 

Well I was drawn in thinking it was a 6f handicap but on closer inspection it is effectively 7f handicap. But, I started looking at it so I will put this one up. 9s/10s seems awfully big to me for a horse who has been in superb form all season. He just continues to run well – esp over 7-8 furlongs on stiff tracks. He is 0/5, 3 places at the track, won’t mind the cut in the ground or what the weather does, and is a prominent racer. From stall 1 he could well get out and try to dictate here. Many of these in here have questions over their recent form, some with fitness questions also. There are a few lightly raced ones in here and War Department is being well backed – first run for Dalgleish. He may well find the key and improve it but is getting short enough. The Ryan horse is also being backed – he is running well but needs more- but is only 3. Bajan Rebel just looks solid, and the obvious one at the prices. Maybe he is too obvious but unlike a lot in here, I am confident I will get some sort of run for my ‘money’. It could be that the capper has him but I don’t think that is conclusive and he went close enough in a C4 recently also. 

That is all for this section.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

Day off for this section today. 

 

***

Post Complete. 

 

 

About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

37 Comments

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  • Josh
    Not the best of days, but I did manage with 2 mins to go put a couple of quid on HAWKEYETHENOO, 12/1. Ran a good race and won well.

    Mike Dennis 1 year ago Reply


    • Good stuff Mike – yep I had a small EW tickle on the second there after a quick look at geegeez instant expert tab. Think I had a free bet or something to use up. Was pleased that the old boy was the one to nab me – was superb to watch him still race with enthusiasm and it had been a long time between drinks!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


    • Ah What?! good old Hawkeye was running? well done for getting on

      Ali 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I agree with you on Best Boy Barney. Also giving Germany Calling another chance in the race before.

    Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Nick…ah yes, can’t say I spotted him and clearly haven’t entered him in my tracker! Yep- it is possible that the ground at MR was too soft – officially good but I read a few things which may question that. He needs proper good ground I think and at 10s must be worth another go to find out. Maybe that is more his trip also. Looks a decent little race.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • That and the fact they actually dropped him and jockey take off another 3lbs. Is 2/5 for trainer at track. Also horse has excellent track record.

        Well done on your sprint test zone. So does that mean we should start backing them now since you said before not to just yet?

        Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


        • HI Nick… it really is up to you to judge when to start backing them at the moment – you can see the results, the direction of travel etc. It has been a good few days but only that – only 19 bets in and I need to test myself further. Given the odds, type of race etc etc a losing run of 30+ isn’t impossible- and that could happen. Obviously that will happen when I start ‘tipping them’! But, for now, they remain a test – you can’t rush these things. But, it is promising.

          Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


          • Ok cool mate. Will leave it a while longer before I start jinxing you on them. Look forward to your Goodwood stats.

            Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


    • Both are the cdg BBB +9 & GC +7

      Andy Silvers 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Well done last couple of days and a perfect analysis on the Kimberella race i:e draw, pace, position & of course ultimately the win

    With a lot of talk around Josephine Gordon and her talents I had a look this morning to see if there was a way in to making a profit form her rides whilst she still has her claim and unearthed some interesting stats. She is now receiving lots of rides from different trainers and has had success with some of them in terms of riding a winner. The bulk of her rides have been for David Evans and Jo Hughes and whist she has had a 21% strike rate for Evans there is no real profit to be made and it reads worse for Jo Hughes with only 1 winner from 38 rides so I am guessing that these were learning rides to gain experience. She is also 0 from 18 with mounts from G Deacon.

    Moving away from the negatives and concentrating on trainers who are using her for success currently highlights 3 trainers John Berry, Hugo Palmer & Malcolm Saunders.

    John Berry 8 rides 4 wins 6 places
    Hugo Palmer 4 rides 2 wins 3 places
    Malcolm Saunders 14 rides 5 winners 6 places

    Looking further at this if we concentrate on horses prices up to BFSP 12.0 we have the following figures 22 bets 11 winners 14 places and say we put this into a stalking plan for example £1000 bank using 2% as a stake of the bank win or lose we would now have £2576.62 moving forward which also includes a losing sequence of 6.

    What I personally like about this method is that it is current with all selections being since 19/03/2016 hope this helps

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Steve,

      Cheers – yep that race went to plan somewhat – we/I now just need to find a few like that in the 10/1-20/1 range and we can then emerge from the long dark summer of discontent! 🙂

      Cracking stuff with JG analysis – comments on this blog are getting better and better! Yep, you would think those trainers are clearly being specific when using talents and judging when to take the weight off etc. Interesting also if she rides out for them at all and weather they put her on horses she knows etc. Interesting to watch moving forwards, for sure. And while she still has the claim. Some horses just seem to respond to her, which is good for when she has no claim etc.

      Josh

      p.s feel free to post any qualifiers moving forwards!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Just to note that the rides for John Berry where all on the same horse Indira…
        Yes I’ll happily post up the qualifiers as & when they arrive

        Thanks
        Steve

        Steve 1 year ago Reply


    • hi steve. thanks for the info. going to keep close attention to the three trainer/jockey combo. thanks

      Daniel 1 year ago Reply


      • Your welcome all the info from the holy grail of system finding Horseracebase (HRB) gradually building up a portfolio of backing / laying strategies a couple of others where mentioned on the 20/07/2016

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve 1 year ago Reply


  • Nice write up for Best boy barney Josh! It is also on my qualifiers list on hrb today for a J.Scott system I have.
    J Scott
    July
    10/1 or less.

    James.b 1 year ago Reply


  • Good stuff Steve!

    I totally missed out yesterday on the betting front as I was busy fixing posts.

    Josh good to see the sprint handicaps analysis moving forward nicely

    I am on both Best Boy Barney, cant really believe he was 9/1 earlier, and Reputation ( hope he bounces out and makes all)

    A couple of other I have had a nibble on

    Uttoxeter

    4:45 – Sharp Rise – The 9 year old wins more than his share of races, ticks plenty of the important boxes. Is 4/10 7 places on GOOD going. 4/6 4 places over the distance 1/1 at the course, albeit over a much shorter trip. Trainor Charlie Longsdon has booked Richard Johnson for the ride. Trainer has a 24% at the course in the past 5 years. Plenty to like about the selection who is 4/7 over fences and the front runner could well get a fairly easy lead here.

    Pontefract

    14:20 – Kruger Park – I missed out putting a Richard Fahey 2 year old Pontefract debutant at the last meeting as I thought the wide draw wouldn’t be in the horses favour. Well the horse still won at 11/1. That win enhanced the trainers already good record with two year old making their career debut at the course. In the past 5 years he is 6/20 30% +47.25 A/E 1.86 10 places 50% +53.87..

    Can’t wait for Goodwood & Galway – as a bit of a taster for Goodwood not many bets in the last 5 years but it involves Mark Johnston at Glorious Goodwood.

    Trainer – Mark Johnston
    Festival: Glorious Goodwood
    Class 2 Handicaps only – (2/22 9% A/E 0.65 10 places 45% in Class 3 handicaps)
    3 to 5 year olds
    20/1 & under
    Finished 5th or worse on their last start

    6/20 30% +60.5 A/E 3.13 8 places 40% +72.12
    Betfair SP + 71.88

    Sample size is decent and the Chi/ Archie Score looks solid at 9.59 – Will get my musings on the Chi score over to you sometime this week Josh 😉

    Interestingly his last time out winners are worth looking at too: 4/15 26% +29 A/E 2.22 9 places 60% +46.75

    Betfair SP +

    Interestingly Trainer is 1/17 6% -9 A/E 0.63 4 places 23% with his runners that finished 2nd to 5th last time out.

    Eyecatcher 1 year ago Reply


    • Betfair SP 37.46

      Got a couple of interesting trainers that i will post later but their sample sizes are small but they include Hugo Palmer, Johnny Portman and Andrew Balding

      Eyecatcher 1 year ago Reply


      • Nice call again John on Sharp Rise, called that perfectly. I too had that Fahey maiden winner on my notes- and was going to be a stast/angle of interest selection – but like you put a line through on basis of draw. Doh.

        Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • backed best boy barney aswell shows up well in Geegeez reports horses for courses t/j combos and trainer statistics got 8/1 missed the 9s your write up gives me more confidence I backed the right one was looking at big sound aswell but at the prices it was best boy that got the money also backed skidaw valleys 3.15 Carlisle think the fav is vunerable at this distance the trainer got good course record thought 11s this morning was to big

    antony church 1 year ago Reply


  • All the jockeys seem to be saying the ground is on the easy side at Uttoxeter. The mind boggles as to why the officials choose to water so much.

    Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


    • Oh bugger. Well, if that is the case it has screwed up both GG and BBB. Annoying but that’s the game. I suppose they couldn’t have predicted showers, and if it ended up being hotter yesterday, and they hadn’t have watered, it may have been unsafe. Unsure. But that is annoying. Was hoping for good at worse. He has placed on good to soft but he won’t be able to get away and may struggle. GG should give us some indication.

      That’s assuming they have had some showers today? Which were forecast to possibly arrive. maybe they have watered too much if it hasn’t rained that much, but enough to make it ‘easy’.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Have to agree with the going looking more like gd /sft first 3 home 4.45pm all have best form on it.

        Steve 1 year ago Reply


        • Yep – not impossible for best boy – and the fact front runner there led all the way (albeit best form in race, in hindsight 5s big but then I have just watched him win!) suggests it may be ok – harder to do that when softer. We shall see. If BBB runs a shocker then I would say that is the cause. Germany Calling – well he went a lot better than LTO and travelled into it well, before fading tamely again – I am unsure whether he is a big of a ‘dog’ and doesn’t like putting it in/passing horses – maybe he HAS to make all to do his best. Halved in price as well so that was poor.

          Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


          • Yeah they clearly expected him to run well and Longsdon I thought seemed more hopeful about him than the winner. I dont know if the slow start took his toll. Did seem like he was cantering for a lot of the race.

            Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


  • GALWAY TRAINER NOTES… for those of you who like such things..

    http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Galway-Festival-2016.pdf

    Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Good shout Josh….Sharp Rise…but definitely squeaky bum time….lol.

    Tony Mc. 1 year ago Reply


    • John takes all the credit for that one, not me! I will take credit for Mishaal though! 🙂 He does like to clout a fence, ruined his race LTO when going to bolt up, and I thin I had a nibble on him that day. Nice horse for the summer.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • addendum…..and Mishaal of course Josh….but in SR’s race I saw a few clods of wet earth flying up.
    Course officials are idiots most of the time. I could argue this all day. It killed off the horse that loved to hear it’s hooves rattle of the ground.

    Tony Mc. 1 year ago Reply


    • Yep, given that I don’t think they have had much rain- unsure, it is shocking there is soft in the going. Should be decent, good, summer ground. Annoying. BBB may be so well handicapped/race run to suit, that it doesn’t matter. We shall see. He was worth the risk at 9s and happy with bet whatever. If good to soft this morning, at those odds, I may have been tempted in anyway.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Sorry Josh…yes James…sorry J….didn’t trawl back properly…..Good shout. sorry.

    Tony Mc. 1 year ago Reply


  • A friend has just raang me and said Uttox, is riding good…….Headscratch time.

    Tony Mc. 1 year ago Reply


  • well done josh with mishaal, got 15/2 with sky. you seem to be getting the hang of these sprints, will start backing all of them now

    malcolm pendrey 1 year ago Reply


    • Cheers Malcolm – yea he did drift out to 8s for a time also but will record at 7s. Yep, well I always have confidence in myself and I can be a quick enough learning if I throw myself into something – and I have been trying hard to do that with these types of races. Hard work usually rewarded at some point, but have to keep at it. Still a test! 🙂 (I haven’t been putting my usual 1 points on, more nibbles, but I may start betting a bit more myself now!)

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Hope the magic city is treating you well.
    Fabulous few days after some character building weeks.
    Just keep doing what you’re doing and although not vocal got the faith in you.
    Combine you and Chris & Matt at Geegez 8 bets today
    6 winners

    Tracy 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Tracy,
      Ah the magic city is wonderful as always thanks! Yep slowly getting there, back to some Nov-Feb highs, albeit still need to ‘tip’ a few more, but I will just keep doing what I know to work long term. Happy with how the sprint test going. Sounds like you have had a good day. I would like to think between geegeez (Matt+Chris) and this blog, you won’t go too wrong,over time! 🙂 Sounds like you have had a great day and glad you have kept the fait through testing times. I do enjoy a bit of character building.
      Josh

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Just been having a chat with Chris at Geegeez and sung your praises.
    Yes your right Geegeez and you combined have made me look at races would never have gone near.
    Those new glasses working well Josh

    Tracy 1 year ago Reply


    • Haha, well I got them at lunchtime actually, so in theory it could get even better from here on in! Everything is so sharper! Yep I know Matt well enough, have never met with Chris but have talked a bit online etc. Top blokes. This blog wouldn’t exist without me finding geegeez/Matt etc.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


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