Friday…well a day to lift the spirits for me after Worcester gate and a day that sums up what the ‘value’ game is about. It can be a bumpy ride. Two decent sprint winners in the test section, to add to two more in the days before that. That section has gone from -16 points to +35.5 points in the last few days. That is how quickly it can change. This will remain a test section for some time but it is promising at least. There really is no excuse moving forward I don’t think. If I can find the winners of those two races at 14s and 22s, I should be able to make it work long term. But, time will tell. Stats/Angles- the first one ran a cracker in 3rd (a closing third) and on another day could/should have won, going off at 20/1. The other tailed in last. The ‘trainers in form’ section also had a good day, +13 points at Uttox if backing them all. That of course isn’t the point of that bit -they are more a starting point for further research but again that was a day to show some promise, with winners at 6/1 and 10/1. Now all I need to do is start finding some ‘official’ tipped winners….
BRAZOS – 1 pt EW – 14/1 (PP/Coral 5 places) 12s (general) (ensure you get 5 places,plenty around) *UP
Well that was just disappointing sadly. Not even a race for our money. Never really in it at all. Travelled well to my eye but when asked did nothing. Given where winner and second came from no excuses at all. Not good enough. Winner clearly going the right way and i believe was 12s earlier in the week- clearly the time to get. 6s this morning, well backed. First run over 7f and first on good to firm, clearly relished both of those here today. Smart horse to win that race in that style.
Well this race is responsible for my biggest priced winner to date I believe, having tipped up Heavy Metal in this two years ago at around 50/1 from memory – albeit I think I was the only one reading the blog back then. I don’t fancy one at such a price this time but Brazos looks rather solid to me.
I think the trends/stats in the comments leave a shortlist of: Flash Fire / Heavens Guest / Emell / Suzis Con / Withensea / Brazos / Kings Pavillion (another big priced Johnston runner!- maybe some ‘just in case’ change,albeit on paper i’m struggling to see him winning this)
Brazos – I will just focus on him here today rather than writing another chapter of War And Peace… He bounced back to form LTO, on his 5th start for this trainer and this is ‘only’ his 24th flat run. There could be more to come. On old form he is still well handicapped and he is a course and distance winner. It looks like he enjoys really quick ground and surprisingly he hasn’t run that many times on it, certainly in ideal conditions. I think this is his first 7f handicap, on good to firm, in a class 2. He brings something different than some of these who tie in on that Newmarket run. He has a top jockey booked and he is a prominent racer. There doesn’t look to be scorching pace in this to my eye and I think you will want to be in the front 3rd. He could lead or track Mutawathea who will hopefully provide some pace having led LTO. The trainer continues in superb form – now 5/22 in the last 14 days, building on a solid 14 days before that also. There could be more to come and having won comfortably here of 95 in 2014 this is certainly within range. He was out of form when running in this race later that year and comes into this in much better form. His speed figure is good and I think he has the class. Last year he ran well in the spring cup at Newbury over 8f – a distance he doesn’t stay to my eye, but went well for a long way, as an example. He just looks solid here, I can’t really see many chinks. 14s seems more than fair for one who should still have something in hand and looks to relish this ground. There won’t be any excuses if he doesn’t run his race, not that I can see. There is some pace low but I don’t think there is really a track bias, and I don’t see a pace one either.
I will just go with the one this time. Nothing is is really jumping out at me. Clearly you can give a chance to plenty but hopefully this one can out-run these odds.
KIMERELLA – 1 point win – 13/2 (general,6 firms) WON 9/2 SP… (oh and the 1-2 for the stats/trends. No forecast places here, obviously! Never think about that as a fun bet)
*PHEW…. I wont be jumping around with a 13/2 winner, and a 4.5 point profit on the day but it is just a relief to tip a winner. Hopefully I can build on it.
Well I have decided to get off the fence – 13/2 in this race has just tempted me in I think and having thought about it this is the one I want onside. Maybe I will pay for not going with first instincts but we shall see. As below he ticks a couple of the main stats that I found interesting. He continues in the form of his life and isn’t really doing much wrong and annoying for connections no doubt keeps creeping up the weights. He ran well at the Curragh, being on the wrong side it looked, slightly. He didn’t have much to take him into it over 5f there and did a lot of his own work for some way. Back at Chester he was 4/5 wide for most of the way round but still came second in deeper ground, running again as if he remains in good form. Pace and Draw have also tipped the balance in putting him up. He should be ridden forward, and I think he finds it easier to hold a position nearer the front over 6f than 5. As we saw with yesterday’s ‘test winner’ the place to be here , again, was low, on the far side. And to race prominently. There will be no excuses here. Hopefully this is the race where he gets his deserved big win as he has been doing nearly everything else right. The trainer remains in good form and while he has fired a few darts at this without success, quite a few have placed on reflection.
Again, cases can be made for a few a maybe some of the main stats, that look strong, will be broken. Intisaab is getting interesting at 8s also but I am slightly put off by the break (from memory he was withdrawn from a race at Donny after getting unruly behind the stalls) , I think he is drawn on the wrong side and also I don’t want to be with one that will be held up here. Maybe they will come to the fore but most recent evidence, and the pace maps, suggest that is not where you will want to be. I may throw a ‘just in case’ £5 at him (1/4 point for me)
Holding Notes from yesterday…
Undecided. The Sky Bet Dash trends/stats do not point you to the bigger priced ones. Indeed if you use the following… Placed on at least 1 of last 2 starts, (did not, 0/86, 13 places) and NOT moving up 1 furlong, (those that were 0/49, 5 places) so from 5 furlongs…I think that only leaves two – KIMBERELLA (5/1) and INTISAAB (7/1). They are both in the top 5 of the market and look like being sent off at 12/1 or shorter. On the stats, and indeed their recent form, they look likely to run well. I don’t think I could comfortably take them on, but at the same time I am not itching to back them. This looks a funny race with a lot out of form (seemingly) and many stepping up from 5f. Added to the mix is that there doesn’t seem loads of pace on paper which means it could be falsely run, and therefore ‘anything; could happen. Maybe a year for all stats to be blown out the water. Nicholls is 0/26 in the race, a few have placed, and Intisaab is usually held up – and I don’t think you will want to be out the back in this race- he is improving though and looks interesting at 7s. I am on the fence. Maybe I will come off it by 11 am Saturday morning.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total = +13.5 points)
None today. Time has run out for me this morning and enough going on above anyway.
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
4.00 – Ballesteros UP/ Lexis Hero UP
5.05 – Gabrial The Duke UP
3.10 – Dawaa (12/1<) 3rd
3.45 – Davids Duchess NR / Paddy Power DNQ (16/1<)
4.50 – Huntlaw (12/1<) UP
2.25 – Saved By The Bell 3rd
3.00 – Alfred Hutchinson UP/ That is The Spirit DNQ
4.10 – Intisaab 2nd / Louis The Pious DNQ
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total= 4/19, 5 places… +33.5 points)
None today. Will stick with the main tipping races.
TRAINERS IN FORM
Not much today but a couple of pointers from Salisbury maybe…
5.15 – Word Is My Bond (14,30) 7/2 UP 7/4 / Imperial State (14) 6/4 WON 5/2
6.20 – Lucky Clover (14, C5) 4/1
That is all for today. Good Luck with your bets.