Free Daily Post: 23/07/16 (COMPLETE)

Friday…well a day to lift the spirits for me after Worcester gate and a day that sums up what the ‘value’ game is about. It can be a bumpy ride. Two decent sprint winners in the test section, to add to two more in the days before that. That section has gone from -16 points to +35.5 points in the last few days. That is how quickly it can change. This will remain a test section for some time but it is promising at least. There really is no excuse moving forward I don’t think. If I can find the winners of those two races at 14s and 22s, I should be able to make it work long term. But, time will tell. Stats/Angles- the first one ran a cracker in 3rd (a closing third) and on another day could/should have won, going off at 20/1. The other tailed in last. The ‘trainers in form’ section also had a good day, +13 points at Uttox if backing them all. That of course isn’t the point of that bit -they are more a starting point for further research but again that was a day to show some promise, with winners at 6/1 and 10/1. Now all I need to do is start finding some ‘official’ tipped winners….

 

TIPS

3.55 Ascot. 

BRAZOS – 1 pt EW – 14/1 (PP/Coral 5 places) 12s (general) (ensure you get 5 places,plenty around) *UP

Well that was just disappointing sadly. Not even a race for our money. Never really in it at all. Travelled well to my eye but when asked did nothing. Given where winner and second came from no excuses at all. Not good enough. Winner clearly going the right way and i believe was 12s earlier in the week- clearly the time to get. 6s this morning, well backed. First run over 7f and first on good to firm, clearly relished both of those here today. Smart horse to win that race in that style.  

Well this race is responsible for my biggest priced winner to date I believe, having tipped up Heavy Metal in this two years ago at around 50/1 from memory – albeit I think I was the only one reading the blog back then. I don’t fancy one at such a price this time but Brazos looks rather solid to me. 

I think the trends/stats in the comments leave a shortlist of: Flash Fire / Heavens Guest / Emell / Suzis Con / Withensea / Brazos / Kings Pavillion (another big priced Johnston runner!- maybe some ‘just in case’ change,albeit on paper i’m struggling to see him winning this) 

Brazos – I will just focus on him here today rather than writing another chapter of War And Peace… He bounced back to form LTO, on his 5th start for this trainer and this is ‘only’ his 24th flat run. There could be more to come. On old form he is still well handicapped and he is a course and distance winner. It looks like he enjoys really quick ground and surprisingly he hasn’t run that many times on it, certainly in ideal conditions. I think this is his first 7f handicap, on good to firm, in a class 2. He brings something different than some of these who tie in on that Newmarket run. He has a top jockey booked and he is a prominent racer. There doesn’t look to be scorching pace in this to my eye and I think you will want to be in the front 3rd. He could lead or track Mutawathea who will hopefully provide some pace having led LTO. The trainer continues in superb form – now 5/22 in the last 14 days, building on a solid 14 days before that also. There could be more to come and having won comfortably here of 95 in 2014 this is certainly within range. He was out of form when running in this race later that year and comes into this in much better form. His speed figure is good and I think he has the class. Last year he ran well in the spring cup at Newbury over 8f – a distance he doesn’t stay to my eye, but went well for a long way, as an example. He just looks solid here, I can’t really see many chinks. 14s seems more than fair for one who should still have something in hand and looks to relish this ground. There won’t be any excuses if he doesn’t run his race, not that I can see. There is some pace low but I don’t think there is really a track bias, and I don’t see a pace one either. 

I will just go with the one this time. Nothing is is really jumping out at me. Clearly you can give a chance to plenty but hopefully this one can out-run these odds. 

 

4.10 York

KIMERELLA – 1 point win – 13/2 (general,6 firms) WON 9/2 SP… (oh and the 1-2 for the stats/trends. No forecast places here, obviously! Never think about that as a fun bet) 

*PHEW…. I wont be jumping around with a 13/2 winner, and a 4.5 point profit on the day but it is just a relief to tip a winner. Hopefully I can build on it. 

Well I have decided to get off the fence – 13/2 in this race has just tempted me in I think and having thought about it this is the one I want onside. Maybe I will pay for not going with first instincts but we shall see. As below he ticks a couple of the main stats that I found interesting. He continues in the form of his life and isn’t really doing much wrong and annoying for connections no doubt keeps creeping up the weights. He ran well at the Curragh, being on the wrong side it looked, slightly. He didn’t have much to take him into it over 5f there and did a lot of his own work for some way. Back at Chester he was 4/5 wide for most of the way round but still came second in deeper ground, running again as if he remains in good form. Pace and Draw have also tipped the balance in putting him up. He should be ridden forward, and I think he finds it easier to hold a position nearer the front over 6f than 5. As we saw with yesterday’s ‘test winner’ the place to be here , again, was low, on the far side. And to race prominently. There will be no excuses here. Hopefully this is the race where he gets his deserved big win as he has been doing nearly everything else right. The trainer remains in good form and while he has fired a few darts at this without success, quite a few have placed on reflection. 

Again, cases can be made for a few a maybe some of the main stats, that look strong, will be broken. Intisaab is getting interesting at 8s also but I am slightly put off by the break (from memory he was withdrawn from a race at Donny after getting unruly behind the stalls) , I think he is drawn on the wrong side and also I don’t want to be with one that will be held up here. Maybe they will come to the fore but most recent evidence, and the pace maps, suggest that is not where you will want to be. I may throw a ‘just in case’ £5 at him (1/4 point for me) 

 

Holding Notes from yesterday…

Undecided. The Sky Bet Dash trends/stats do not point you to the bigger priced ones. Indeed  if you use the following… Placed on at least 1 of last 2 starts, (did not, 0/86, 13 places) and NOT moving up 1 furlong, (those that were 0/49, 5 places) so from 5 furlongs…I think that only leaves two – KIMBERELLA (5/1)  and INTISAAB (7/1). They are both in the top 5 of the market and look like being sent off at 12/1 or shorter. On the stats, and indeed their recent form, they look likely to run well. I don’t think I could comfortably take them on, but at the same time I am not itching to back them. This looks a funny race with a lot out of form (seemingly) and many stepping up from 5f. Added to the mix is that there doesn’t seem loads of pace on paper which means it could be falsely run, and therefore ‘anything; could happen. Maybe a year for all stats to be blown out the water. Nicholls is 0/26 in the race, a few have placed, and Intisaab is usually held up – and I don’t think you will want to be out the back in this race- he is improving though and looks interesting at 7s. I am on the fence. Maybe I will come off it by 11 am Saturday morning. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total = +13.5 points) 

None today. Time has run out for me this morning and enough going on above anyway.  

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Chester (12/1<) 

4.00 – Ballesteros UP/ Lexis Hero UP

5.05 – Gabrial The Duke UP

 

Newmarket (July) 

3.10 – Dawaa (12/1<) 3rd

3.45 – Davids Duchess NR / Paddy Power DNQ (16/1<) 

4.50 – Huntlaw (12/1<) UP

 

York (9/1<) 

2.25 – Saved By The Bell 3rd 

3.00 – Alfred Hutchinson UP/ That is The Spirit DNQ

4.10 – Intisaab 2nd / Louis The Pious DNQ

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

(running total= 4/19, 5 places… +33.5 points) 

None today. Will stick with the main tipping races. 

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

Not much today but a couple of pointers from Salisbury maybe…

5.15 – Word Is My Bond (14,30) 7/2 UP 7/4 / Imperial State (14) 6/4 WON 5/2 

6.20 – Lucky Clover (14, C5) 4/1 

 

***

That is all for today. Good Luck with your bets. 

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. International Stakes.. I had a brief look at some stats/trends as follows…

    16/18 Aged 4 or 5 (7+ 0/58,3p)
    18/18 ran 1-60 days ago
    18/18 had 2+ runs this season (0/1 = 0/31, 1 place)
    17/17 (of those with a win) had WON over 7f
    18/18 had RUN over at least 7.5f (0/86, 15 places had not)
    18/18 Top 4 on at least one of last 3 runs
    17/18 running at same or up 1 class from last run
    18/18 HAD RUN at the track (0/98, 10 places, had not)
    Group 3 LTO – 0/33, 6 places / Listed LTO 0/18 , 1 p

    Track LTO
    Positives – Newmarket July / Ascot/Haydock/Sand/Newb/York
    Slight Neg – Chester / Lingfield/Newcastle/Donc/Goodw

    Trainers
    M Johnston: 3/23, 5 p
    R Fahey: 2/14, 5 places
    J Gosden: 2/8, 5 p
    Cox: 2/4, 2 places1 win : T Easterby/A Perrett/Margarson/E Dunlop/R Charlton/J Osborne/
    K Ryan: 0/11, 3 places
    Fanshawe: 0/8, 0 places
    Dandy Nicholls: 0/19, 1 place
    M Channon: 0/12, 1 place
    J Goldie: 0/14, 1 place

    ***
    What does that lot throw up??….

    1. It throws a fair few. I would also add 15/18 had an OR 93 to 106 which takes a few more out. Personally I am keeping faith with Mutawathea which whilst doesnt quite fit the trends (yet to win over 7f) but think is a very solid choice. George Wood takes off a valuable 7lbs and I would be surprised if he isnt there or thereabouts and makes a great each/way bet. The other ones I think will go close are Brazos and Heaven’s Guest. havent yet if I will play more than one yet or not.

      1. Went with Brazos as my 2nd pick. I think the Atezeni booking is massively eye-catching considering he is 4/8 for the trainer this season.

      2. Oh I do wish there was an edit button Josh. The other horse I like tomorrow is Rah Rah in the 15:45 at Newmarket. Drops back down into handicap company and is 2/2 in Class 2s. James McDonald has shown he is an extremely shrewd judge of pace and is 5/12, 8 places at Newmarket (July) over the last couple of years in handicaps. I expect to him to lead from start to finish.

        1. I agree with the edit button & think James McDonald interesting at Newmarket best jockey stats for course today

      1. yep, wouldn’t put anyone off nibbles on Johnston pair given his record in this. Very wise maybe! just in case.

  2. SkyBet Dash – dont forget how good C. Hills (Tanzeel) is in this type of race, as you highlighted in your Sprint Hcap research – 6/1 or <, age 3-5, horse wins in hcaps 0-2, 15/5/9 33%.

    1. I guess it was slowly run race when Tanzeel won it last year?

      He tops the cdg list for rpr:

      Tanzeel 9-7
      Louis The Pious 9-9
      Pipers Note 9-6
      Ninjago 9-10
      See The Sun 9-0
      Related 8-12
      Tatlisu 9-5
      Arctic Feeling 9-1

      But nowhere on topspeed:

      Louis The Pious 9-9 (Interesting? Given price? 28/s Corals & BV – 4/9 fast ground.
      Ninjago 9-10
      See The Sun 9-0

  3. Nothing from the back tonight – You need a horse that travels well from where the pace is – no holdup horses will get anywhere near tomorrow the going is very quick

  4. Josh
    International Stakes. Short list
    Flash Fire, Heavens Guest, Emell, Suzi’s Conn, Brazos. I have gone with Heavens Guest Fahey being the only winner in my short list.
    I have gone with Intisaab in the Sky Dash.
    Wings of Desire
    Mutawateb

    My sat Yankee.

  5. I’ve gone with Brazos & Don’t Bother Me but clear top 11 cdg for International

    Jack Dexter 9-2
    Balty Boys 9-3
    Heaven´s Guest 9-5
    Brazos 8-7
    Lincoln 8-5
    Majestic Moon 8-13
    Dont Bother Me 8-13
    Flash Fire 9-10
    Mutawathea 9-3
    Bossy Guest 9-5
    Suzi´s Connoisseur 8-12

  6. SkyBet dash – Intisaab has not competed at Class 2 level yet. 7 of last 10 winners of this had won at cl 1 or 2 and 2 of the exceptions came 2nd in a class 2 that season, also claimer rides today.
    Kimberella has run poorly over yorks 6F twice, 5 of the last 10 winners had won or placed over CD and interesting that the other 5 winners were running at York for the first time. i guess theres a stat against all of these. Of the top 4 in the betting ( 9 of last 10 winners) i like Tanzeel, he has not placed in either of his last 2 starts ( 12 of last 12 have), but he has had only 1 run this season and clearly layed out for this.

  7. I’m tempted to have an ew punt on the Johnston pair 3.55. Looking at his stats for the king George meeting he gets winners most years and sometimes at big prices, Kings pavilion and Whitman certainly are big prices at 28s and 40s.

  8. Skybet Dash – I can see Cornwallville running a big race today going by my numbers – Completely unexposed , he should be extremely fit by his last 3 race pattern and progeny of Mafki generally improve at 4 and have a decent strike rate in sprints. His trainer has had a few placed at the course this year including 2 yesterday. I like the way he was running on again under a big weight uphill at Hamilton last week in a half decent race suggesting a big run and could improve again in 2nd time visor. His jockey has picked up some good rides from Willie Haggas recently and has upped his game the past couple of seasons and is much improved. Interesting he is the only colt in the field. Just a question of is he good enough – at the price ill pay to find out. Most of the field are trained locally the exception being last years winner Tanzeel being sent over 200 miles from Newmarket. Tounge Tie back on again today and his trainer has an excellent record with sprinters. He looked very comfortable in this last year and if in the same mood surely the 2lb difference in rating will not stop him. On reflection this looks less competitive than last years race from an “in-Form” angle. Still mighty tricky but so play “light” whatever you do there are plenty of better races punting wise to get stuck into today.

    Robert

  9. HI Josh……Cornwallville is from my tracker, but once again….the trainer is going for a 6f sprint…I still think he needs 5f. but i’ve done it ew at 20s.

    had the two sprint winners yesterday…paid 22/1…but they didn’t pay me out on the other…They said I missed the change of odds [**”****] liars….but they took the losing Rio bet…O well..I was slack in not checking….but well done lad.

    1. good luck Tony – like all good tracker horses he will naturally bolt up when you have nothing on haha. Nice price, hope he runs well for you. Ah glad you had a nibble on the sprinters, quite nice returns even for small money (which mine was)

    1. Hi Bill, yep plenty of logic there- concerned again if he gets worked up, and the stamina. But you make a valid point and he may have a race like this in him at some point. Clearly be kicking myself if he bolts up, given tipped LTO GL

        1. cheers Bill. It is fun when they cruise into a race like that! the 1-2 for the stats/trends..didn’t do the forecast, obviously!! 35/1

  10. wretched luck with my Barron micro – runners in a hood- in the 3.00! Did it each way but should have collected the big prize.

    1. i had that barron runner. paul kealy gave it on racing post podcast but that jockey always seem to positon horses wrongly. not the first time i have had bad luck with him riding

  11. Nice shout again- Josh – Kimberella – Text book stuff – in form fit sprinter on the right side of the track trained by a specialist and ridden by a crafty pace-wise jockey.
    That 13-2 looks a gift now as although competitive it was a very winnable race and it shows your on the right track by that price being the decisive factor in the bet.
    Excellent Stuff mate.

    Regards

    Robert

    1. Cheers Robert – yep the market last night put me on the fence a bit – 5s ‘felt’ ok, but nothing more, 13/2 felt a bit better. My approach to odds isnt very scientific and needs some work. Ticked plenty of boxes and all recent sprint winners (inc in test) have been horses in form, running well. The chase winner, not tipped, was also. Sometimes it can be as simple as that! Always wish you had double pointed when they win like that but that’s hindsight and I know I wasn’t near to doing that this morning. Didn’t expect it to be that easy

  12. Hi guys
    First post on here. Was at York today as I have a 5% share of Lexington Abbey. Pat Smullen said after the race we were completely stuffed by the draw (drawn 15). Says a lot about intisaab (drawn 14). The rest of the top 8 were drawn 1-6!! Basically it confirmed Josh’s draw stats for the race.
    There could be a decent pot for Lexy if everything falls right. Unfortunately the numpties who run Middleham thought that he was a 5f horse before today – hopefully he will now be campaigned over 6f or a stiff 5f (Ascot). 5.5f for the Portland could be ideal.

    1. Hi Steve. welcome aboard! Thanks for comment, appreciated , esp as a part owner. There are a handful of part owners who read this and share any valuable info regarding their horses etc and it is appreciated. I need to watch the race again a few times but he will have been inconvenienced by draw/pace – seems to have been a theme at York this season, esp when good to firm. As you say makes run of the second decent, esp from off the pace. You have an exciting horse with some ability on your hands and I am sure he will give you some fun, hopefully we are all on board next time he wins!
      Josh

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