Free Daily Post: 22/07/16 (COMPLETE)

 

York: Sky Bet Dash: TREND+ STATS HERE>>>

 

TIPS

None 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total = +15.5 points) 

3.50 Uttox 

Cairnshill – 12/1 (general) 3rd 20/1

*Ahh a case of what might have been. What a very very odd ride- I can see why you would want to hold up an inexperienced horse, no problems with that – get them settled and jumping, still learning. But my god he waited an age to get after him and in the end was closing all the way to the line. A bit more urgency a bit earlier would have been nice – travelled really well into it. Then again, he did make an error when closing and maybe that took the wind out of him,and by time he was back into swing, race was gone. Clearly has ability for this moderate level and is on a winnable mark, won’t be 20s next time though I doubt! 

This is a very weak race, most looking moderate, and it looks there for the taking for someone. There isn’t really any stand out on existing hurdles form. There questions everywhere you look, for every run. Those are the conditions where it is good to back a handicap debutant who has shown very little in non-handicaps to date. 

The way in with this one is the trainer track form. This Irish raider has only sent 5 horses here in the last three years but 3 have won, including one this year. This gives the impression that he is fairly selective with his raiding parties. This one returned at 100/1 LTO after a long break and didn’t really do anything, as expected. This is his handicap debut (he is 1/1 with such types in the last year) and he is stepping up in trip again. The run at Wexford before that showed glimmers of promise. Trainer/jockey are also 10/33, 16 places when teaming up in handicap hurdles in the last 730 days. A decent partnership and one to note. 12s is just about ok I think. The fact he hasn’t been put in at 25s or something indicates that maybe there may be more – the market may well guide. This is his only runner here. He could be in a bit better form but two have placed from his eight runners in the last two weeks. 

So, there are a few pointers there for me. It wouldn’t be a surprise if we saw a different horse here, in a moderate race. He may of course not be any good, but I am happy to take a stab given all the above. 

 

8.40 Down Royal 

Cheers Buddy – 25/1 (general) 

Yes yes yes. I can hear you. What are you doing putting this one up when you left the 20/1 chase winner at Worcester, who ticked many a box. Well. Quite. Anyway, while I still ponder another dismal day on many tipping fronts, I want to take a stab at this one, given his price- which considering the quality of the race and his suitability for conditions seems a bit big for me. He stands out on the geegeez Instant Expert tab as ticking plenty of boxes across class, track and distance – when many others do not. There are a few unexposed ones in here from some decent yards, so maybe this isn’t his race. But most form on show is moderate enough. Last year, at around this time of year he was winning over the Course And Distance (off the back of a mediocre run at Dundalk, much like this time) off a mark of 48. Two runs later he won off 59 and his mark shot up to 67. That was only two turf starts ago ( a few all -weather runs since) and now he comes here off 52. Hayes is back on and he won over CD on him that day and is 1/1 in turf handicaps. The horse has only had 10 turf starts, and has won 3 of them. I think he needs some pace to aim at and I am unsure if there is loads in here but he is well drawn on the stats when the ground is good here. It is good, good to soft really which is just about ok. All winning turf form on good or good to firm. There could be showers, and if they get in and this goes soft, it could be game over. But, he is 25s and while I would like to have more in the bank to take such stabs, I couldn’t resist. This is also his 3rd start after a long break and it could be he needed the other two- as a prep for this maybe. He is also 3/6 in this class of flat handicap (IRE <5k), 0/14 above this. He could win. He could throw in a shocker. You pays your money, you take your chance. (if he doesn’t get nibbled at, dropping below 20s, I would be concerned also) 

That is all for this section. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Pam Sly Females (any odds)

7.10 New – Roxie Lot 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

York (9/1<)

6.00 – Haraz / Khabaray 

6.30 – Bop It / Signore Piccolo 

8.00- Alejando / Hes No Saint 

8.30 – First Bombardment 

 

Chepstow (14/1< guide) 

8.20- Fuzzy Logic / Taste The Wine 

8.55 – Honour Promise / Petrify 

8.10 Newm – Regal Monarch (12/1<) 

***

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

(running total = 2/15,3 places (inc wins) = -3.2 points) 

(remember this is a test. I feel like I am slowly getting better but the two races below will push that theory to the limit…) 

 

4.35 Ascot

Rio Ronaldo – 1 pt EW – 9/1 (PP) 8/1 (general) UP (ran well, 5th or 6th I think, back up to 6f) 

Alpha Delphini – 1 pt EW – 14/1 (lad/coral) 12/1 (general) WON 8/1 SP (will record at 12s, +13 points on race) 

 

Well this is a proper head-scratcher as many of these races are, so maybe I should just stop saying that. They are hard, and I should just get on with it! You could give chances to plenty in here I think and I suspect there won’t be much between a few at the line. 

Rio Ronaldo – was ‘tipped’ in this section LTO where he received an abject ride- on reflection. He was sat on for far too long and the jockey pressed the button too late,and he kept finding trouble everywhere. The drop to 5f is interesting – I am unsure whether it will suit but there is so much speed on paper in this race that it may pay not to get involved. Provided he doesn’t get out-paced (which is the main fear,and left with too much to do) he should be staying on late at the end. He is unexposed and clearly in form. He also clearly handles the track and these big races. Luke will throw the kitchen sink as he usually does and hopefully he won’t be too far away. 

Alpha Delphini- well he wasn’t ‘tipped’ LTO but strongly mentioned in a races I bottled (in a test section!)  and of course he went on to win. I think this strong pace and stiffer track will suit him as he was ridden along a long way out – coaxed along maybe – and he had something left at the end for me, running through the line well. He also came down the side of runners, without much company, and I think it can be marked up. He is unexposed and a half brother to the once smart Tangerine Trees. He should get further in time and that extra stamina here won’t be a bad thing, if this plays out as I think it might. 14s was a bit harsh I thought given his profile. It is clearly a better race and he needs to step up, but these sprinters can progress at a rate of knots, as we have seen a few times recently. (Orion’s Bow!) 

PACE- well plenty, across the track, like to get on with this. It may just suit those drawn a bit higher, but then they may actually just merge up the middle, or all come over to the near side. Either way, the likes of Final Venture, Red Barron,Stepper Point,Caspian Prince and Robot Boy like to get on with it and there are a few ‘pace pushers’ also. This looks like it could be fast and maybe something near the front will cling on, but I fancy something off the pace to grab them all late! 

Shamshon was high up my list and he could go well for a team in form. Not much I can say to put you off him – I did just go with those with proven, big field, straight track form. And, while unexposed, have a tad more experience in races like this. That is what swung it, just. But he could be about to take off if they have now found the key to him and to win from the back at Chelmsford over that trip is a decent effort. He will be held up and I can picture the white weaving through – hopefully Spencer gets his timing slightly off this time! Final Venture is progressing well but he has been able to dominate/dictate from the front in lesser races and at lesser tracks. He won’t b able to do that this time but he could step forward again. But he is 5s. There are a couple who have been running in G1s as well who could out-class these but with MM he isn’t getting any younger and is open to attack from something going the other way for me. But, as always, you could give a chance to over half the field! 

 

6.30 York 

Compton Part – 1 pt EW – 18/1 (BV/Coral) 16/1 (general) UP

Available – 1 pt EW – 22/1 (general) WON 16/1 SP (+25.5 points on race) 

 

These two look over-priced for me here. 

Compton Park- well I ‘tipped him’ at Ponte a couple of starts ago and I don’t know what went wrong there. Bar that run his recent runs have been encouraging and he wasn’t far of Art Obsession a few runs ago, where he was held up further back after a tardy start and had to go wide around/through horses – I didn’t think he should be twice the price based on that run. His last run was decent enough, leading for most of the way before being swallowed late. In general he just seems to be in form and knocking on the door. He also has a decent draw for a prominent racer. He could bag that far rail if they decide to go on with him – and we have seen that the far side, in general, has been the place to be here when good to firm.On old form he is still well in and while clearly not as good as he once was, this looks like his level and if running one of his better races recently, shouldn’t be too far away.

Available – again looks big for one who has been racing well. She is on the other side of the track and is another who likes to race prominently. She also stays a bit further than this which is no bad thing either in these big field sprints. Race conditions are fine and if she can get a handy position early could out-run these odds. I think a large field, straight track, is when he has run some of her best races (like that run at Donny behind Best Trip). This is her first run at York and she may not handle the track but at the prices I thought worth a nibble.

On the front is usually the place to be here so we tick those two boxes. The two selections may actually lead either side and hopefully one of them can stay there. Some of those more prominent in the market can clearly go well, esp the top two. I wouldn’t be surprised if either won but they are usually held up out the back and will need plenty of luck in running here, which possibly makes their odds short enough.

 

 

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

A trip to Uttoxeter for some possible ‘in form’ pointers/starting points… (races where there are 1 or 2 trainers only with the geegeez ‘trainer form’ indicators) 

2.10 – Ablazing (14,30) 6/1 WON 7/2 SP / Spread Boy (14) 16/1UP

4.55 – Argot (14,30,C1,C5) 16/1 UP / Schindler’s Prince (14) 10/1 WON 6/1 SP

5.25 – and the bumper… Welsh Vic (14) UP

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Final Venture 4:35 Ascot absolutely nailed on dead cert (to run well!!) with a splash of Shamshon and Alpha Delphini by my race trend tweakings. I’ll start baking the humble pie around 3:50 so it’s ready to tuck into at 4:37.

    1. Yep,the Osbourne/Spencer horse stood out to me at first,very brief,glance. Looks a fair bit of pace on paper and could receive a Spencer special. Final Venture…well he is in the form of his life but the capper will get him at some point. Leading/raving prominently here a bit different to getting an easy leas from a low draw around Ponte,so I would have concerns. but agree,you would think he will run well. I mentioned Aplpha D before he won lto,and he did that well really. Looks progressive and this may set up for a closer. I will have a proper look in the morning. GL.

  2. I don’t have time to read much here these days or look into races at all, I just have the occasional stab at trends and just follow my systems blindly when I can, which leads me to missing a few and avoiding a few. At least when I look back at the results (with regret of missing juicy winners) they are consistently making profits as a portfolio (for three years live paper trading ( if that is such a thing!) without massive swings). I kind of like being detached from racing these days and having a fun stab at things when I get the chance and maybe now and again I’ll get lucky. It gives me the chance to understand what’s needed for different types of systems rather than a one size fits all. You have certainly helped me recently with ideas and pointers in how to approach certain areas, so I thank you for that! For now I’ll work my nuts off and save a big bank to have a real go at following my systems properly and making some money next year, it’s never going to work for now dipping in and out unfortunately, but its fun and reassuring. So I guess I’m saying you will be more right than me more often than not, but I did get Orions Bow right so who knows when the capper catches up. Keep up the good work Josh but don’t do too much!!! Sorry for the long drivelly post, I don’t get out much and don’t have the chance much either!

  3. Just looked at the draw from the Pontefract race and FV was drawn 8 from 10, followed home by 3,1,2 and won by 6 lengths. 2nd & 3rd were clear favs in the market. I’m not one for putting things into context but I guess he could of got off to a flyer and ‘claimed’ a low draw if you know what I mean. Please stop analysing a race I’ve had a stab at as I need to be winding down and getting ready for another 12 hours work tomorrow not delving in deeper!!!

  4. Morning all,

    Cheers Buddy could be one of you specials Josh…. jockey perfect, the only horse with any real form at the track, good handicap mark and stall 3 looks good… As you say well overpriced at those odds should be a 10/1 chance in my book. Great reasoning there!

    Almost too much good racing today so just delving into it now

    Ascot 4:35 could be a real pace burn up there…. Rio Ronaldo each way at 12s, unlucky over 6f here last time. Drop to 5f shouldn’t be too much of a problem with the likely fast pace set up. I think 8-3 is a good weight and Luke Morris is a good booking for the horse. if he can get him settled he will be finishing best of all… well thats the theory anyway.

    Will now look at York a couple of tasty looking sprint’s there this evening!

    1. In the 4:35 I could have added in the ‘old boy’ Medicean Man might be a 10 year old but loves Ascot’s stiff 5f and only beaten 2 lengths in the King Stand Sttakes… really good race!

      1. They are two tough races- agree about Rio Ronaldo. MM has a chance given the level he has been operating at and may not be far away. There are some trends for this and I only had a brief look – but I did see the record of previous G1 runners in this race – and that now stands at 0/34, 2 places. Good luck, they look tough, but should be fun to watch!

  5. I think Light And Shade EW Asc 3.30 is interesting 2/2 at track 5/9 at a mile reaching 20/s on the exchanges 16/s elsewhere

  6. Great shout on Alpha Delphini AND Cairnshill Josh – love the term “the way in” in the write up and noticed you use it previously. No matter how extreme the angle or method there has to be a “way in” I used to mentally picture a door to a room concealing a chest full of gold – This was the “way In” Finding what opens that door is the key to this game and paradoxically the door does not open at just any old price.

    Robert

  7. Funny ol game this nothing going right yeterday to two splendid winners today well done Josh you deserve it

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