I have been pulling together some notes- a checklist/blueprint for my developing approach to these sprint handicaps. I thought it would help me if I wrote everything down in some sort of logical order. So, what follows is a kind of checklist/blueprint for questions I should be considering when analysing a flat handicap.
I may have missed something and this may well need adding to – your comments/thoughts are welcome- there will be things that you do that I don’t at present, and I would enjoy hearing about them. For now…
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total: +17.5 points)
None. I have had a good look and those that do stand out to be are under 5/1 and still have a few questions also. Nothing jumping out at the prices so I will have a day off on that front.
Meehan Maidens (any odds)
6.10 Notts – Stop The Wages 2nd 5/1
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
4.15 Muss: Novinophobia (any odds) WON 2.7/1 (10p R4 from 3/1)
5.00 Ffos Las: Tim The Taxi (16/1< guide, only 0/6,1 place above this) NR
8.10 Nott: Ada Misobel (any odds) 2nd 33/1
SPRINT HANDICAP TEST ZONE
(running total: 1/12,1 place… -12.8 points)
(remember this is a test, not official ‘tips’ etc etc)
Lydia’s Place – 1 point EW- 12/1 (general) 3rd 10.8/1 (10p R4) (+1.6 points on race) *
*a decent run with no excuses whatsoever – just wasn’t good enough on the day. She got to the front – albeit pestered by the eventual winner- but had the rail and ran well. As she develops further I am sure they will find a race or two. The winner- Economic Crisis – well on all know form I am not sure I would have ever bet on this one- in flat handicaps – 0/10,3 places good to firm, 0/9, 3 places track (all career wins Hamilton) and most noticeable 0/15, 3 places C4, 0/8,0 places C3. BUT, I suppose the two ‘ways in’ would be the fact that this was the second run for a new yard,and it was clear from the pace maps that she would be up there, in the right place. It was possible she would come on from that last run, and there were enough bits and pieces of place form. And she was around 20s. So not impossible, but based on some of those profile pointers above she wasn’t near the top of my list
This looks a tight little handicap but at 12s this was the one that caught the eye, for a few reasons really. She is unexposed and at some point, if trained on, is going to show more. 5f on good to firm looks to be her conditions and in July last year won a C3 nursery handicap at York- making all and winning despite the saddle slipping. She made her seasonal debut 3 starts ago and was 16/1, leading for a time and ultimately fading as if the run was needed. She then ran at Wetherby and didn’t do too much, but ran ok on good. Last time she ran on good to soft. I am banking that it will be ground that may see a better display. It could be she hasn’t trained on of course, or needs more time. She is a course and distance winner and it is the first time Connor Beasley rides. He rides this track well and has a decent enough record for the yard.
The final piece of the jigsaw was pace and draw. Drawn nearer the stands side rail this front runner could get out and have the box seat. It is hard to come from behind here at the best of times and this one, if in form, may take some catching. That is the theory at least.
So: unexposed / prime ground conditions / possibly reaching peek fitness / jokey booking / trainer form here decent / past ability shown / mark dropping / front runner who is well drawn to attack / price
TRAINERS IN FORM (of interest/new/a bit of fun for now)
Those of you who subscribe to geegez gold will be aware of the ‘in form’ filters on the race cards, and you will have seen me refer to them in these posts, and in videos. Essentially there are two symbols , both green… a ‘14‘ (5+ runners in last 14 days, either a 20%+ win strike rate or a 51% + place strike rate) or a ‘30‘ (10+ runs in the previous 30 days, either a 20%+ win strike rate or a 51% + place strike rate)
Now, what follows isn’t very scientific but what I am going to do, probably until the end of the month, is go through 1 or 2 meetings a day, with a focus on the handicaps. I am going to focus on races where there are only 1 or 2 trainers, in any given race, that have one of those green ’14’ or ’30’ (or both) symbols next to their name.
I want to see if this is an interesting starter point for further research, and maybe a ‘way in’. In any case, some of you may find it useful to help with your own research. This isn’t a comment on the horse’s chance in the race and clearly some further work would be required. And you may wish to look into the trainer’s form more closely, including at the track. I have noticed winners go in when this has been the case – and there may be nothing to it. It may be a pointless exercise but it takes me less than 10 minutes and may be a worthwhile area to pursue.
2.15 – Incurs Four Faults (10/3) UP
3.15 – Pea Shooter (5/1) 2nd / Farkle Minkus UP (16/1) / Chookie’s Lass UP (10/1)
3.45 – Our Kylie (11/4) WON 3/1
4.15 – American Hustle UP (8/1) / Circuitous (11/2) UP
4.45 – Always Resolute (7/4) 2nd 15/8/ Roc De Prince (7/2) UP (i did have a quick look at this, RDP is a front runner, the only one on paper really, with Joe Fanning up – interesting)
6.40 – Show Palace (2/1) UP 11/4
7.10- Operative (11/1) UP 4/1
7.40 – Shamaheart (9/4) 2nd / Depth Charge (7/1) UP
8.40 – Sleepy Haven (7/1) UP 3/1
That will be all for today.