Free Daily Post: 19/07/16 (COMLETE)

 

NEW!

I have been pulling together some notes- a checklist/blueprint for my developing approach to these sprint handicaps. I thought it would help me if I wrote everything down in some sort of logical order. So, what follows is a kind of checklist/blueprint for questions I should be considering when analysing a flat handicap. 

I may have missed something and this may well need adding to – your comments/thoughts are welcome- there will be things that you do that I don’t at present, and I would enjoy hearing about them. For now…

FLAT HANDICAP (SPRINT) CHECKLIST: HERE>>>

 

 

TIPS 

None. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total: +17.5 points)

None. I have had a good look and those that do stand out to be are under 5/1 and still have a few questions also. Nothing jumping out at the prices so I will have a day off on that front. 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Meehan Maidens (any odds)

6.10 Notts – Stop The Wages 2nd 5/1

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

4.15 Muss: Novinophobia (any odds) WON 2.7/1 (10p R4 from 3/1) 

5.00 Ffos Las: Tim The Taxi (16/1< guide, only 0/6,1 place above this)  NR 

8.10 Nott: Ada Misobel (any odds) 2nd 33/1 

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TEST ZONE 

(running total: 1/12,1 place… -12.8 points)

(remember this is a test, not official ‘tips’ etc etc) 

3.15 Muss 

Lydia’s Place – 1 point EW- 12/1 (general) 3rd 10.8/1 (10p R4) (+1.6 points on race) *

*a decent run with no excuses whatsoever – just wasn’t good enough on the day. She got to the front – albeit pestered by the eventual winner- but had the rail and ran well. As she develops further I am sure they will find a race or two. The winner- Economic Crisis – well on all know form I am not sure I would have ever bet on this one- in flat handicaps – 0/10,3 places good to firm, 0/9, 3 places track (all career wins Hamilton) and most noticeable 0/15, 3 places C4, 0/8,0 places C3. BUT, I suppose the two ‘ways in’ would be the fact that this was the second run for a new yard,and it was clear from the pace maps that she would be up there, in the right place. It was possible she would come on from that last run, and there were enough bits and pieces of place form. And she was around 20s. So not impossible, but based on some of those profile pointers above she wasn’t near the top of my list

 

This looks a tight little handicap but at 12s this was the one that caught the eye, for a few reasons really. She is unexposed and at some point, if trained on, is going to show more. 5f on good to firm looks to be her conditions and in July last year won a C3 nursery handicap at York- making all and winning despite the saddle slipping. She made her seasonal debut 3 starts ago and was 16/1, leading for a time and ultimately fading as if the run was needed. She then ran at Wetherby and didn’t do too much, but ran ok on good. Last time she ran on good to soft. I am banking that it will be ground that may see a better display. It could be she hasn’t trained on of course, or needs more time. She is a course and distance winner and it is the first time Connor Beasley rides. He rides this track well and has a decent enough record for the yard. 

The final piece of the jigsaw was pace and draw. Drawn nearer the stands side rail this front runner could get out and have the box seat. It is hard to come from behind here at the best of times and this one, if in form, may take some catching. That is the theory at least. 

So: unexposed / prime ground conditions / possibly reaching peek fitness / jokey booking / trainer form here decent / past ability shown / mark dropping / front runner who is well drawn to attack / price  

 

 

 

***

TRAINERS IN FORM (of interest/new/a bit of fun for now) 

Those of you who subscribe to geegez gold will be aware of the ‘in form’ filters on the race cards, and you will have seen me refer to them in these posts, and in videos. Essentially there are two symbols , both green… a ‘14 (5+ runners in last 14 days, either a 20%+ win strike rate or a 51% + place strike rate) or a ‘30‘ (10+ runs in the previous 30 days, either a 20%+ win strike rate or a 51% + place strike rate) 

Now, what follows isn’t very scientific but what I am going to do, probably until the end of the month, is go through 1 or 2 meetings a day, with a focus on the handicaps. I am going to focus on races where there are only 1 or 2 trainers, in any given race, that have one of those green ’14’ or ’30’ (or both) symbols next to their name. 

I want to see if this is an interesting starter point for further research, and maybe a ‘way in’. In any case, some of you may find it useful to help with your own research. This isn’t a comment on the horse’s chance in the race and clearly some further work would be required. And you may wish to look into the trainer’s form more closely, including at the track. I have noticed winners go in when this has been the case – and there may be nothing to it.  It may be a pointless exercise but it takes me less than 10 minutes and may be a worthwhile area to pursue. 

 

Muss

2.15 – Incurs Four Faults (10/3) UP

3.15 – Pea Shooter (5/1) 2nd / Farkle Minkus UP (16/1) / Chookie’s Lass UP (10/1) 

3.45 – Our Kylie (11/4) WON 3/1 

4.15 – American Hustle UP (8/1) / Circuitous (11/2) UP

4.45 – Always Resolute (7/4) 2nd 15/8/ Roc De Prince (7/2)  UP (i did have a quick look at this, RDP is a front runner, the only one on paper really, with Joe Fanning up – interesting) 

 

Notts

6.40 – Show Palace (2/1) UP 11/4 

7.10- Operative (11/1) UP 4/1

7.40 – Shamaheart (9/4) 2nd / Depth Charge (7/1) UP

8.40 – Sleepy Haven (7/1)  UP 3/1 

 

***

 

That will be all for today. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. Hi Josh
    I look forward to seeing how the “in form” trainers get on. My thoughts are that if you have a trainer with stats as per above and their normal yearly strike rate is say only 8%, you’ve probably missed the boat and the winners will dry up and then some other trainer will suddenly go and hit the 20% SR. Just sort of thinking out loud if we take Brian Ellison & Keith Dalgliesh, Brian’s win strike rate of around the 12-14% is pretty static over the last 5 years and indeed for each month so I think it is safe to say he is on a hot streak which might not last? Keith also has a yearly SR of around 14%, however is monthly SR is not static and varies quite a bit and indeed goes up to 17% in July so is Keith’s July SR a hot spot or the norm? Ed De Giles is also similar to Keith Dalgleish and GA Harker another one with a horse above, in HCPS has a win SR of just 6% over the last 4 years but in the months of Jun – Aug this rises to 12% so it stands to reason he will have some nice sweet spots in these months.

    Like I said just thinking out loud and I like a blog as you can see it gives me a few ideas 🙂

    Cheers

    jon

    1. Hi Jon,
      Thanks for your considered thoughts and I am tempted to agree with you – but, I suppose that section is me thinking out loud also and we shall see how it goes – Those geegeez indicators are very responsive, and the 14 day one can possibly predict an upturn. (if 1/5,3 places say,there could be a few more to come) Of course there is then the idea of knowing that a trainer’s horses are ‘in form’ against a load of rivals whose horses are not- at least within those criteria above.

      We shall see if this approach throws up any winners- and whether this shortlisting approach may be a good place to start, to home in on any possible bets.

      It may well be it is a case of after the Lord Mayor’s Show – and trying to predict when a trainer may hit a hot streak is tricky.

      This blog is the place for thinking out loud -or it should be. Keep them coming
      Josh

      1. A thought from the other end of the spectrum, ie a trainer that has been very much out of form eg Linda Perratt, who had her first winner in 2016 yesterday,( i havent checked that and dont know how many runners she has had in that time to hand), but it seems to me that she may now have alot of well handicapped horses, in fact i have backed Bunce in 3.15 Muss today with this thought in mind.

        1. Yep – She has had a bad virus apparently and they are only now coming into themselves. As you say, she could have a lot of well handicapped ones on her hands – they have still been running them I think, and have had a fair few runners. They will be fresher than some at their level. Yep Bunce has a chance – I thought 5s ok given his 1 draw and the fact he likes to come from behind – he will need a lot of luck in running – if he gets it, he will go ver very close. He would have gone much closer LTO but for traffic – tipped by Gary at 50/1 there and very unlucky! Well handicapped, he wont be far away. I am hoping my one may have shot away up the rail by then!

  2. Little system I’ve been tracking for all those lovers of class 6 hcaps lol
    Ed DeGiles class 6.
    Class move not up 1 or drop 1.
    Flat & Aw.
    No odds cap.
    Low strike rate at Kempton but great place rate there.
    Would be great to hear what you guys think?

  3. Hi Josh, I’ve used trainers in form as one approach for many a year now. The criteria I use is trainer must’ve had 2 or more winners in last 14 days and be operating at a strike rate of 33% + in the same period. I like to bet mostly in handicaps and experience has taught me to avoid class 3 and 4 races with this approach but it’s profitable in class 1 or 2 races especially if the trainer has previously shown that they’re capable of training such animals. The Races I do like though are class 5 or lower where I usually bet the qualifiers blind in the betfair place market with worthwhile results. Don’t make a fortune but have a few systems/methods and it all adds up. By the way the Ruth Carr system I put up on here at the start of June was very profitable on the place market, 20 plus points if I remember correctly. Best of luck with the experiment Josh

  4. Something has to be said about trainer John Riches? I had 50p ew on Economic crisis because it popped up in my tracker and the OR looked good and the days rest was within the range of wins altho going and class was well out! His other runner today got beat by a sh at 25s wow! Spoken words not looking like there was much chance either. Strange month with a fair few trainers who rarely win going in!!!

    1. yep – he appears to have ‘improved’ a horse on her 74th career start! Yep – can see why some would have a nibble at prices – pace/new trainer the main ways in I think, if you could excuse plenty! I have been guilty of leaving a horse based on poor form/profile in one factor, but thought she was also best with give and this may be happening too quickly. Horses there to make you look stupid mind.

  5. The only thing I noticed that my be missing from your checklist is whether the horse “comes to hand” at a particular time of year e.g. all wins from July onwards. I know you’ve looked at patterns in horses form before Josh and for specific horses this can definitely be a factor.

    1. Thanks Alan – yep I mention it in the second bullet down- well I say ‘month’ but I suppose I could be more explicit as I agree that there are certain times of year that some horses thrive, often covering more than just one month. That factor is certainly always in my thinking.

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