Free Daily Post: 20/07/16 (COMPLETE)

NEW!

I have been pulling together some notes- a checklist/blueprint for my developing approach to these sprint handicaps. I thought it would help me if I wrote everything down in some sort of logical order. So, what follows is a kind of checklist/blueprint for questions I should be considering when analysing a flat handicap. 

I may have missed something and this may well need adding to – your comments/thoughts are welcome- there will be things that you do that I don’t at present, and I would enjoy hearing about them. For now…

FLAT HANDICAP (SPRINT) CHECKLIST: HERE>>>

 

 

TIPS

None. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total = +17.5 points)

4.30 Catt – Secret City – 8/1 *3rd 

Well, a never nearer third really, a small return for any each way backers but in truth he never looked like winning come the final couple of furlongs and it was between the front two for some way. Officially a 1 point loss but I hope anyone who did back it may have taken a rare safety first approach. He is clearly running well and will need to be well placed to win at his age- I suppose in a race full of moderate, exposed handicappers where there is plenty of pace. One to keep an eye on as he is ‘in form’ at least. 

8/1 feels a bit overpriced for this one, and I could have bottled it and put it in the ‘test’ section but I like his chance here. While ‘official’ results will be recorded for this section as a 1 point win bet, I do think he looks decent EW material as I can’t see him being far away. Firstly he shows up well on geegeez instant expert- having a decent strike rate in the class and the distance compared to all of these. He is also 4lb below his last winning mark of 60, which was his most recent win in these conditions- over 6f, in class 6, on good to firm in the last 5 years he is… 9,1,13 (wrong side track), 3, 1 – his best two runs being the most recent. The training ‘family’ of the Bastiman’s (believe license holder changed- Rebecca taking over from father Robin?) have a record of 10/40, 16 places when using Tudhope – Rebecca 4/10,5 places in flat handicaps. He is 3/13, 5 places on the horse also. The horse has been running well recently and has a 7lb pull with the fav on their Ayr run where he was a couple of lengths behind, albeit that one is open to progress. Tudhope rides him more prominently than some and while there are no out and out front runners in this there are plenty of pace pushers and it shouldn’t be a crawl. He also has the best geegeez speed rating by some way – which I use as a guide, but only that. It is a positive at least. All in all I just thought he had a lot going for him, given the above and he has been running well enough. 8s felt big to me and I would have him as second fav i think. He has placed at the track and I have no concerns on that front and they are also possibly due some showers. I hope it remains good to firm but if it does soften a tad given his form with cut that won’t be a ready made excuse. 

The fav is short. Yes he won LTO but that was a maiden handicap and he has gone up 5lb. He did run well before that also, just in front of the selection. He may just pull away from these but this is his first run on good to firm (another reason I hope it stays this way) and that will be new for him. It may be fine but I think he is there to be shot at. Whippound was a bit of an eye-catcher on the AW LTO, travelled well and if it softened he may not be far away but needs a bit more. Amis Reunis would be interesting at 50s if trained by someone else – the trainer now 0/144, 5 places with all runners so far. Very odd. Maybe he is getting the marks of horses down for ‘someone’ – before they move yards and then all bolt up! 🙂 (not a Curley plot is it, not a former stable lad or something!) He would have bits and pieces that could see him out-run these odds. 

 

That is all for this section today. 

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

None. 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

None. 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

(remember this is a test…)

5.00 Catt – 

Singeur – 1 pt EW– 8/1 (general)  WON >11/2  (+8 points on race) 

Fast Act – 1 pt EW- 12/1 (SJ/Coral) 10/1 (lad)  UP*

*well I got one half right and went with the head over gut and got the call right – the pace set up was made for him and unexpectedly, thanks to the other selection, they went a hell of a gallop – even more so than I expected! 1st time headgear and they changed tactics here- to go that fast and hard, and to lead this field, shows his class for me – Fast Act – there is something there to work with, if only they can find the key. In the end he faded tamely, to suggest he still isn’t in form. While he went hard, he faded a bit too readily for me. I will be keeping an eye on him. Low drawn around Chester could be fun if they pursue with those tactics and he can recapture something. I didn’t expect them to try and make all here, given other pace in race, but you can see why, with headgear, they may try it. 

Singeur- did it well enough in the end and while the saddle slipped on the second, I don’t think it made a difference given how much he had in hand at the end. Everything went to plan really and he came from the clouds – indicating how hard they went up top. I am pleased for my analysis that Desert Ace ran well as at 12s he was high up in my thinking, ultimately put off by the draw stats. He got across and the saddle slipped and that run can be marked up I think. I will watch the replay a few times and add to my notes, which I will update and send out again over the weekend I suspect.

 

This looks a right head-scratcher and I am still undecided whether to get involved – but the last time I did that, in what is a ‘test’ section, my fancy went and won at York. I think these races – where there are very few you can discount – should probably be left alone but I have been looking at it for long enough so we will go with these two. 

The PACE is more of a ‘way in’ here – in the sense that there looks to be loads of it on – and if something can lead here, and win, well then all credit to them. But, there are 4 out and out front runners in this who will want the lead, as well as a further 4/5 who like to push the pace. They won’t be hanging around here and on paper at least it looks like a race where it could pay to just sit off the pace and pass tiring rivals late on. 

Singeur- well the same connections as the ‘Stats/Angles’ horse and I was torn between this one and Money Team – and I still am. I don’t like putting up 3 in a race really, but if this was ‘real life’ or even in the test, and I had say 50+ points to play with I may well have put up all three. This one doesn’t win very often at all – only 2/55 on turf – but he is in form, is well drawn, has loads of pace to aim at, and has Tudhope back up – who was the last jock to win on him. He is 2/7, 3 places on the horse in flat handicaps. He hasn’t been on him for 17 runs now. Interesting enough. All race conditions are fine and it was only September last year he was coming a neck second off 83, running off 77 here. With luck in running he could go close.

Fast Act – well this one was once rated 106 a couple of seasons ago, going close in Group3s and Group 2s. At some point he is just going to hack up by half the track you feel (well, relative for a Sprint, so 2-4 lengths or something). Now rated 83 he has been plummeting down the handicap. He drops in trip here – he has only ever won over 5f to date, drops in class, and gets first time headgear to help. At the start of this season he was rated 100. Clearly he isn’t as good as he was as a 2 year old but he doesn’t have many miles on the clock and at some point it will all click again. For one who tracks the pace, and who is drawn low, I thought he looked one of the more interesting ones at 12s. He is doing plenty different and there are plenty of reasons why a win would not surprise you- for me anyway.

Of the rest – well maybe it is too competitive- All bar the bottom 3 could be given a chance – but then there are bits and pieces where no winner would totally shock you. Money Team was the most interesting other one at a price for me and my gut says I may have picked the wrong one in truth- he has won after a break, ticks plenty of boxes, and could go well. He is 5 and there could be more to come on turf this year. I was a bit put off by the draw – it should be ok but he usually ‘chases leaders’ and it could be he gets stuck a few wide around here, with some pace on his inside. Of course there are plenty in here who are race fit also and his last turf win was 2014. He also definitely needs it good to firm but the looks of things and any rain that gets in may blunt him a bit.Pearl Acclaim could take this and if he were 8s+ i would have had more of a head-ache. He is in form and could be in the perfect spot for ‘when’ the pace collapses. Difficult draw also though. 

So, a proper test race where I will learn plenty I think- there are 3 I like at the odds.  

 

***

TRAINERS IN FORM (of interest/new/a bit of fun for now) 

Those of you who subscribe to geegez gold will be aware of the ‘in form’ filters on the race cards, and you will have seen me refer to them in these posts, and in videos. Essentially there are two symbols , both green… a ‘14‘ (5+ runners in last 14 days, either a 20%+ win strike rate or a 51% + place strike rate) or a ‘30‘ (10+ runs in the previous 30 days, either a 20%+ win strike rate or a 51% + place strike rate) 

Now, what follows isn’t very scientific but what I am going to do, probably until the end of the month, is go through 1 or 2 meetings a day, with a focus on the all-age handicaps. I am going to focus on races where there are only 1 or 2 trainers, in any given race, that have one of those green ’14’ or ’30’ (or both) symbols next to their name. 

I want to see if this is an interesting starter point for further research, and maybe a ‘way in’. In any case, some of you may find it useful to help with your own research. This isn’t a comment on the horse’s chance in the race and clearly some further work would be required. And you may wish to look into the trainer’s form more closely, including at the track. I have noticed winners go in when this has been the case – and there may be nothing to it.  It may be a pointless exercise but it takes me less than 10 minutes and may be a worthwhile area to pursue. 

4.40 Bath – Wassail – 7/1 (’14’,’30’,+ Course 5 year form symbol) UP

5.10 Bath –

Babyfact WON 15/8 / Secretfact 2nd 28/1  (’30’ Course 1 year form) 

Carcharias (’14’,’30’,+ Course 5 year form symbol) UP

5.30 Catt- Fillydelphia – 5/2  (’14’) 

6.30 Sand – The Warrior 5/1 (’14’) / Jack of Diamonds 5/1 (’30’) 

7.35 Sand- Haley Bop – 6/1 (’30’) 

8.05 Sand – Atalan 7/1 (’14’ ’30’) 

 

***

That is all for today. 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. 5-10 Bath CAPTAIN RYAN EW
    The going at the course is described as firm, which should suit the selection down to the ground, excuse the pun, as he has only won 5 times and each time it was firm. Also he has only won 5 times and all of those runs were at Bath which augers well, a true C/D type. He is 1lb higher than his highest winning handicap mark of 60 so its not impossible for him to win on 61 and the jockey T Murphy has been on this horse the last 2 runs resulting in a win and a 3rd of 17 lto at the track. A Horse that shown good course and distance form is worth following especially over a course like Bath which has a very stiff uphill finish and horses that struggle over a flat 5 furlongs struggle to get the trip at this course as its more like running over 6 furlongs than 5. The actual yardage at Bath is 5 furlongs 161 yards which is nearer the 6 furlong mark and very stiff to boot. Hopeful of a good run as the horse has good c/distance form.

    1. Great stuff Philip, I do like a well reasoned selection and he seems to have plenty going for him. Good Luck.

  2. Hi Josh

    I just had a very quick scan of your ‘Blueprint” and I never spotted the words ‘Speed Rating’

    I am no expert but I would think in sprints next to asking does my horse get out of the stalls quick, I would be asking is he/she faster than the other horses.

    1. Nobody makes accurate speed ratings in this country, not even Timeform, because you cannot make a reasonable going allowance (due to clerks of courses just making up the the actual going descriptions in most cases) and there are no sectional times. This means that you can’t tell if the final time of the race was slow due to the ground conditions or because of a slow early pace or because the field were just not very good. You can usually trust a fast time but the vast majority of races are run in slower than Standard Time (although which ‘Standard’ time for distances at different tracks is the most accurate is open to question, Timeform, Raceform, The Racing Post et al all have different Standards).

      1. No offence but you dont use going descriptions to set a going allowance you use race time comparisons. And then maybe ‘in-running comments such as ‘set strong pace – compared with times to determine what the going actually was. Quite often as in the Racing Post the Time Based Ground will differ from the Official? Ground.

        Eric Winner does his own ratings & seems to do alright & specializes in sprints

        1. Sorry Andy, yes I confused myself there, thanks for putting me right. One other thing is whether or not the ratings are adjusted for weight carried, some people think it doesn’t matter, other people make adjustments. In the case of Topspeed in the Racing Post Dave Edwards doesn’t make weight adjustments for his own ratings but the RP does, in order for the scale to match their handicap ratings, so you can choose to take the figures as they are in the paper or add/subtract points if you want Dave Edwards raw numbers. Its all so subjective!

    2. Ah speed and timings.

      Many call me a philistine but I think they are as much a rip off as bad tipsters.

      Reason – other than our AW tracks there are too many imponderables.

      Race Distances are not accurate at many tracks. Rails change position every meeting, especially since the advent of plastic movable rails. Going Conditions vary from race to race when wet and from meeting to meeting. Grass can be cut to different lengths at different times of season.

      Then there are the horses, horses are pack animals, they tend to follow a leader, if a leader goes fast, they will try to follow, if a leader goes slow, they tend to do the same. Jockeys have similar traits, some like to set pace, some like to “hold up” some are good tactically, some awful tactically.

      I liken it to a golf swing, it is all about the point of contact with the ball, forget the aesthetics, watch a good 80 year old golfer with an awful swing player straighter than a 40 year old with a great swing, point of contact!! – the point of contact in any race is the finishing line, how you get there is less relevant than the fact you get there.

      The Willoughby’s of this world will bore you rigid with “sectional timing” why, Willoughby sells sectional timing stats…

      A horse is not a finely tuned car engine that revs to a strict limit, a horse has no maximum or minimum speed, it is how it feels on the day, how it is drawn on the day, the underfoot conditions on the day and so many other imponderables.

      Speed imho is not an issue in finding winners – not on turf anyway.

      1. Ian, I agree with most of that but sectional timing would be a godsend to serious punters in this country.If you can estimate how fast the early pace in a race is going to be it tells you what kind of running style is more likely to win. So if you know, based on the sectional times for the first quarter of all the runners in a race, that they are going to plod through a quarter mile in about 25 seconds that means that the horses up front will have a big advantage because they have conserved energy and the ones behind can’t accelerate fast enough to go past them. Conversely, a suicidal early quarter in the sub 24 second range means that the early leaders can’t keep that pace up and something will come from behind to win.

        We try and do this now by the ‘scientific’ method of looking at how often a horse has led or run prominently in its previous races and saying if there are a few of those that the pace is likely to be hot – except we don’t know whether those horses got a soft lead in their other races or they were going flat out from the start. In the US they have a saying that the best bet on a racecard is the lone early speed in a race, i.e a horse that based on all known form, is guaranteed to get to the front AND be able to control the pace to conserve its energy for the finish.We are still in the dark ages over here….

        1. Steve – very valid and interesting points and I respect your views very much. However, I still think ST treats the horse more like an engine than an animal, so for me its a no at this point. I do agree though that we are in the dark ages, and maybe I’m a dinosaur, and we all know what happened to them!

        2. Steve

          Interesting points made their mate – I agree with the need for Sectional Timing in the UK and think it will happen – BUT – i disagree with it being a “godsend to serious punters” – I know for a fact that there are at least two teams right now in the UK collating sectional times from video software for nearly every race run in the UK and Ireland – There are also probably independent operators specializing due to the time and effort constraints. BUT as with everything else there is a learning curve with the data they are obtaining and i know that at least one team are questioning if the edge it provides is economically worth it and are continually trying to implement different ways of interpreting the data. My take on this is that if sectionals were made public – there would be NO edge – i have already seen evidence of all weather handicap sectional good things being punted as if their is no tomorrow. I would go further and say that there could be an edge in OPPOSING these “pace” good things on market price alone. Your example of the Lone Speed horse in the States is perfect and you are right – statistically its the best bet on the card but from a price point of view no longer valid as they have long been underlays since the mid 90s. Like all data , sectionals will cause confusion as even in the States where pace is king there are so many different beliefs and ways of looking at it and if anything it will be interesting. BTW a lot of UK punters seem to associate “pace” with the front runner and “the lead”. I would suggest a reading of Tom Brohammer’s excellent Modern Pace Handicapping as a good grounding and introduction as a heads up for when sectionals are implemented.

    3. No mention of Horses for Courses or Track Specialists either? Note the money for Captain Dunne 5.00Catt this morning but also come to think of it, Trainer Trends, as Tim Easterby has won that race 4 rimes from 8 runners last 10 years?

  3. Yup, Eric Winner still on form, as yesterday: “(FREEBIE) – Only eight runners in this class three race which are a poor turnout considering the prize money, there’s a few hidden dangers or improvers in the field so stakes have to be kept to a sensible level, Misterioso and Happy Call have no form for this course and distance but other factors point to them being capable of showing better than they have so far, Francisco is fourth top rated and Baileys mirage third top and both have been known to lead before, second top spot goes to Welease Bwian but I still think it’s a better horse at five furlongs and if it’s a fast run early pace, which I expect, then it might fail to stay the trip especially as the top rated UNDERSIEGE 13/2 is also a front-running type but both of my top two come from the same stable so maybe if the selection can’t win from the front then it might play into the hands of the stablemate but I’m sticking with the facts as usual and will be betting the top rated to smallish stakes.”

    1. Spot on…. apart from the fact that Under Siege didn’t actually lead until the 2 furlong marker – but I am not complaining as it qualified under a Stuart Williams system I run anyway!

  4. My EW tip for the day – 5.00 Catt Ayresome Angel 40/s generally – I noted Josh’s suggestion Lydia’s Place 3yo against elders & thought a bit dubious, what with the weight for age scale drifting latter season to benefit 3yo’s over longer trips [an old Mordin system to note any 3yo beating a field of 10 or more over sprint trips from August onwards & follow as 4yo’s]. But anyway I thought LP ran quite well & actually came out top on figures giving winner 7lb – last year LP clocked a fast time over today’s 5gf Catt & not far behind her was AA off level weights.This looks a hotter race but that run puts AA not far behind the top 4 on CDG figs & ahead of the top weight Best Trip so given the odds could be worth a small EW imhyo

  5. Steve – yep I haven’t mentioned speed ratings – I do use the ones on geegeez as some sort of guide, but only that- I mentioned race times comparisons, where possible. But, as the discussion above indicates – Speed/ratings is a complex game with a few different approaches and many different views as to their usefulness. But, I should mention them given they play some role in my approach and, as I have today, I do mention them every now and then.

  6. Josh – Interesting that you have started in form trainers as a trial way in as I started the very same approach last week . Too early to tell yet but certainly pointed the way to a couple. It will if last week is representative and possibly by it’s very nature throw up more shorter priced horses and a single horse on a roll turned out quickly can skew the figures for a small stable

    1. Hi John, yep interested to see how it goes – more so I suppose to see if it throws up enough winners whereby that approach would be useful as a starting point for further research and trying to home in on the right ones. I could have kept it to my note-pad but I am sure it will throw up the odd winner, as it did yesterday, and hopefully some readers may use it to find a few in the meantime. We shall see. Your 1 horse on a roll point is useful – trainer form theories vary – but there is something to be said for a happy yard etc – and success and breed more success for a short time, until say the handicapper gets moderate horses etc.

  7. Hi Guys

    I’ve been playing around with HRB ( a fantastic bit of kit once you get a handle on it ) and delved a little deeper on a couple of trainers / jockeys that’s been mentioned on here quite a bit and come up with the following stats for 2016 only.

    Keith Dagleish / Philip Makin —- Horses aged between 3 – 6, running over 9f – 10f only, excluding Ascot & Wolverhampton comes up with the following

    Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF)
    24 12 50 39.06 15 62.5 24 50 162.75 43.78 182.43

    Ruth Carr / James Sullivan ——- Horses aged 5 years only, priced up to 7/1, running at Ayr, Carlisle, Catterick, Musselburgh, Redcar, Southwell & Wetherby

    Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF)
    16 7 43.75 23.2 10 62.5 16 43.75 145 24.53 153.28

    Hope this helps
    Steve

  8. Hi Josh…..Secret City is an old tracker for me….I think it stands a good chance if he can catch them late..has to be just right though. I recall putting a ? mark against the age 10yo. But I’ve had a wager at 9s……lol.
    Hope springs eternal as they say…lol

    1. Hi Tony, yep a tricky one with these sprinters – in terms of age. They do go in and it is very much about a look at the oppo I think – there is only one really unexposed one in here which helps – and he has been running well enough. Tricky to take a punt when they appear to be completely out of form, and maybe regressive. I don’t think that is the case with him yet. But, of course there will always be younger legs against him – a case of hoping the trainer can place him well etc. I thought he looked worth a go today in what are perfect conditions to my eye. He isn’t exactly strong in the market though, with some money having come for theirs in the 5.30. We shall see!

  9. Sorry about the format it seems to have moved when i posted lol….

    Should read
    A) bets 24, wins 12, win % 50, P/L(SP) 39.06, Places 15, Place % 62.5, Races 24, Race % 50, ROI(SP) 162.75, P/L(BF) 43.78, ROI(BF) 182.43
    B) bets 16, wins 7, win % 43.75, P/L(SP) 23.2, Places 10, Place % 62.5, Races 16, Race % 43.75, ROI(SP) 145, P/L(BF) 24.53, ROI(BF) 153.28

    Steve

    1. Hi Steve,

      Excellent bit of research there and couple of observations If I may.

      Totally agree about the utility of Horseracebase (HRB) for system building and your right when you say it can take a bit of time to get a handle on it but the work you put in reaps rewards.

      I am just putting together some notes for an article I am writing about Actual & Expected (A/E) and the Chi Score’s and their importance when building systems. I like the fact that you haven’t used to many filters and the filters you have used make perfect sense to me.

      I have had a look at the two Trainer/Jockey combinations and they look fairly interesting from both the A/E & Chi Score and even if you take out the 2016 figures the systems have been profitable and they look progressive which is always a good start. I thought In would add both the A/E and Chi Score for both of them:

      1. Keith Dalgleish/ Philip Makin :
      2016 A/E 2:6 (1.37 in the past 5 years) &
      2016 Chi Score 14.66 ( 0.84 not including 2016 figs)

      2. Ruth Carr/James Sullivan
      2016 A/E 1.72 (1.52 not including 2016 figs)
      2016 Chi Score .7.83 (3.07 not including 2016 figs)

      The Keith Dalgleish/Philip Makin one fits in nicely with one I have with the same combination using good or good to firm : :
      Keith Dalgleish/Philip Makin
      Fla Turf Only
      Good or Good to Firm only
      Age 3 to 6
      Distance 1m to 1m 2f

      Since the duo have teamed on regular basis the above is 26/78 33% +113.42 44 places 56% A/E 1.85 Chi Score 12.42 and the 2016 figures are 8/32 36% +45.63 15 places 68% A/E 2.11 Chi Score 5.61.

      I will post any qualifiers for the above on here.

      Anyway Steve I hope you will post more stats that you find on HRB 🙂 I know I will if Josh doesn’t mind.;)

      1. Ah, well its discussions/comments like this that make this blog what it is i think! Posts like this are always welcome, no problem at all.
        I for one would be interested in reading your thoughts about Chi scores etc – I think some of my systems need some work!! Cheers. Josh

        p.s I do like the personal approach if possible, first names help 🙂

        1. It’s John btw….. and keep up the good work an excellent blog and a community with plenty of knowledge 🙂

          I might even buy you a beer when your next over at Ponte!!

          1. Well hello John, and thanks for your comments, more like that are always welcome in these parts! Yes, I will let you know next time I venture that way! Given recent success at the last two meetings I attended it is turning into my fav punting track!

      2. I would be interested to read your observations on A/E and Chi numbers because I have a few systems that have been consistently profitable for years but according to those stats its pure luck! Considering we should only be backing horses that can outrun their odds the A/E is a useful tool but I think the Chi just confuses the issue. If I have a system that has been profitable for 5 years with an A/E of 1.5 I don’t care if the Chi is ‘only’ 0.6 say, which means there is a high chance that the results are just down to luck..

      3. Eyecatcher

        Can you provide a link to your article once finished – Chi scores are a very interesting way of looking at stats and providing validity to them.

        much appreciated

        Robert

  10. One more stat to add for today Catterick 2.30 RACEMAKER Mick Channon has had 4 favs in sellers over 7 furlongs at the track in the last 2 years won with 3 and the other placed won the race last year and stable in form all set for a big run although priced accordingly

    Steve

    1. Ah cheers Tom, good to hear from you. Yep, learning plenty in that game – the 3m+ chasers in deep winter ground is more my comfort zone but trying to get to grips with these moderate sprint handicaps and I am slowly getting there I think, but we shall see. Glad you like the write ups – that is the point, allows readers to engage with how they see fit, picking the bits they like etc etc.

  11. Josh , First post here – excellent write up/notes on sprint handicapping. It makes sense to specialize – it makes sense to lay your method down in note form/checklist style. First point – speed figures – do not let people put you off incorporating speed figs into the mix. There is a lot of misunderstood nonsense babbled about figures and ratings daily on forums in the UK – Usually by people who do not comprehend the maths behind it – Every flaw and argument can be overcome and a good set of CONSISTENTLY compiled figures are dynamite in the right hands. The problem is most people do not have the time to a) find out and research how to compile them and then b) daily compile them! – And There Lies Your Edge (most people). Second point Josh – In your Sprint Handicapping notes – i see a lot of “questions” you must routinely ask yourself pertaining to the Form Factor of each animal. i.e. Will the horse run to its ability , improve , decline etc. It took me a tremendously long time to detach myself from this type of questioning and to research “The Form Cycle” long enough to know that personal opinion was not providing good enough answers. I would sub-consciously hold opinions, attachments and resentments to individual horses and types of form that were NOT TRUE. I now QUANTIFY the FORM CYCLE – A Simple rating asking 11 questions based on beaten lengths, class movements, conditions, energy and most importantly (according to my research) Run Times (Days since) of the last 5 runs – i have found that not only these ratings to be very predictive but more so what i call the “Match Up” of the numbers. It has enabled more clarity in assessing complex fields of animals at different stages of their cycles and has took me away from the previous cloudy type of questioning and reasoning etc. Just food for thought Josh in this Great Game Of Ours – PS – I Might have some material in PDF Format on Sprint Handicaps (books and articles) – in my ever growing Research Lab!! – Ill have a gander

    All the Best

    Robert

    1. Hi Robert,
      Many thanks for such an interesting and thought provoking first comment! A lot there to take in. I still have a lot to learn and as always there are many different approaches , including the role of numbers/ratings etc in your approach = (a guide, a starting point, THE main factor, to be ignored etc)

      Your Form Cycles point is fascinating and something for me to get my head round. I try and spot patterns, or piece together ‘the story’ lets say of a horses recent runs but I don’t think in the way you are referring. Very interesting.

      Well, if you do have anything for me to read it would be greatly received. You can always email me… info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

      Thanks again, you have me thinking! All politie, reasoned views, are welcome on here. Esp if challenging a view etc.
      Josh

      1. Hi Josh – Thanks for the comments mate – Love the site BTW and check in daily and look at all your stats and angles – The fact that most of the content is free AND intelligent is a bonus – There are people around providing not even a quarter of your output and asking for pretty decent sums of money – So you should be applauded.

        I have tons of interesting stuff archived and most of it is in PDF – I am currently putting material “Up In The Cloud” and will email you over the weekend with links etc BTW I am in no way critical of any individual approach or method etc – I believe if it works for You – Keep Doing It! .There are so many ways to skin a cat in this game and i believe there are no real “Experts”. Horse racing has a continually evolving , fluid and dynamic structure and i suppose we as punters try to force “rigidity” by applying logic and method to the mix. Maybe we try to force this too much and our thinking should have more of a free flow and motion to it. One thing i have learned is that this game is a great equalizer and in flights of fancy thinking their is nothing like a PU (pulled up) or UR (unseated rider) to humble you.

        Regards
        Robert

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.