Free Daily Post: 18/07/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS

None today. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total: +19.5 points) 

7.40 Beverley 

Adiator – 12/1 (general) – UP

*well it looked interesting for a time but the way the race panned out suggested those near the front have done far too much and gone far too early, all fading tamely. Fingers crossed the final one can make it a decent day. 

This one is based around the jockey booking – one SDS takes the ride here and he has only ridden for this trainer twic in the last 730 days, without a place. But, when teaming up at this track in the last 5 years they have stats of 3/4, 3 places. In handicaps here they are a perfect 3/3. The horse- well he doesn’t win very often but is well drawn here and has at least run some OK races, including two starts ago. I don’t know what happened LTO but that is the nature of this level maybe, unpredictable horses. On the geegeez ‘place tab’ he shows up well and has some form in all race conditions. Last May this horse came a neck second here off OR64, running of 58 here today – and SDS is worth a few pounds no doubt. We won’t be lacking from the saddle and it is the first time he has ridden the horse. Based on that run two starts ago it looks like 7f+ is what is required these days. This one is a bit of a poke but at 12s I thought he looked of some interest, in what is a poor race. 

 

8.40 Beverley 

Judicious – 10/1 (BetBright) 9/1 (WH) 17/2 (PP) 8/1 (Lad/BV/888) * UP (close 4th) 

I am not minded to find too many excuses there albeit from a draw of 6, fairly near to the rail, he ended up all over the place (well jockey didn’t seem to know what he wanted to do with him) and never really settled all the way round. Maybe the headgear lit him up too much but he did give away the odd bit of ground. Either way, come the last 50 yards he emptied out, having just hit the front at one stage. It was exciting for a time, at least!

*Those prices haven’t lasted long, clearly last evening was the best time to get him. 8s with Boyle and 888 if you can get on, 7s general. The latter pice will be declared price when he does romp to victory. 

This horse is in my tracker, having added him a few weeks ago when noticing his record on good to firm. I think Mozzer has highlighted his profile also – and this one was around 12s last night I think but I was too busy having dinner and then watching the golf highlights! In handicaps… on good to firm he is 4/8, 5 places and 2/4 over Course and Distance. He is 0/16, 2 places on all other going. He is 9 but has been lightly raced in recent years having had two massive breaks of 300+ days. Clearly he has had his problems, and it may be that all ability has gone. But, they persevere with him and he has ran OK in far from ideal conditions recently. This is now his 3rd start after his latest break and it could be that he is ready to strike. He was previously a decent enough handicapper and this is his first go in class 6. His last win was in 2013 off 65. He runs off 54 today. He could be well handicapped, or given his problems that is a fair reflection of his ability. The final positive is the trainer form – he has a green 14 on geegeez, 1/5, 2 places in the last 2 weeks. He also gets cheekpieces for the first time which may help- something different at least. The ground is the main plus here and 10/1 – 8/1 still seems fair enough, in a race like this. 

That is all for today in this section. 

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Other 

Pam Sly Females (any odds)

8.20 Wind: All My Love 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Ayr (16/1<) 

2.30 – Tiger Jim 

3.40 – Lady Cordie 

4.10 – Fray 

5.10 – Nicholas T 

5.40 – Haidees Reflection 

 

8.10 Bev – Yorkindred Spirit (any odds) 

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

None today.

I had a brief look at the 7.50 Windsor, but it looks to be between the top few in the market and nothing at 8/1+ is catching the eye. Foxtrot Knight goes again here- an eye-catcher here two starts ago, and ran well LTO having the worst of ‘the trip’ – he went very wide and gave away a few lengths. He is inform, well drawn here, and has 4/5 front runners to take him into it. I can’t think he will be too far away. 7s may underestimate Oh So Sassy also- back on decent ground, a drop in class from last run. And then there is the unexposed one at the top of the market. It looks a decent little contest and I will watch with interest.

The 6.35 Beverley looks interesting also but again I was struggling to find a way in at a price. There are plenty of in-form horses in this one and it looks fairly open. Maureb was the one I had a close look at, 12/1. He drops from 7f to 5f here – and in the end I thought that may be too sharp a drop and recent runs would suggest he will be out-paced here. There is a lot of pace on paper though, and if he can keep tabs it could collapse for a hold up horse. The trainer is 0/16,2 places when employing this jockey in 730 days, 0/8, 0 places in handicaps. In the end I have left him, but again, will watch the race for educational purposes.  

 

***

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Judicious napped by spotlight in the Racing Post, not mentioned at all in The Sporting Life race analysis…funny how we all see the races differently!

  2. Hi josh. I have had 2 winners from this race ran on Jul 8 2016/Musselburgh/17:30

    Dark Crystal was 7th seriously hampered . won earlier today

    Charava was 5th also trouble in running won today

    3rd horse from that july race heavily gambled that day gypsy major runs at beverley 7.40 today. I have done eachway has a wide draw today.

    I know u mentioned adiator in that same race. any thoughts

    1. Hi Daniel,
      Good work with those two. Exciting finish in both those races, I think you may have ridden your luck enough for one day haha 🙂

      I certainly won’t be putting you off him if you like him – he has a few things going for him – his one win on turf was on good to firm, he is running well,trainer is in form, he gets 1st time visor – he is effectively 6lb lower than that yarmouth run. The only question looks to be the draw but horses do win from there and there are a few hold up types on his inside, so it isn’t impossible he can get out and get a position. His race may be settled in the first furlong. This race isn’t screaming pace- which is a slight niggle for mine actually but I am hoping SDS uses his brain and tries to hold a position from his draw.

      Given you have had two winners I think you probably have to have something on! You wouldn’t be shocked if he went in and in what looks an open race he has a good as chance as most to my eye.

      I wouldn’t let my liking for Adiator put you off!!

  3. Yes josh.some luck with those two finishes. I think it should run his race . Was on the other side of luck last week. Bcked horse at Wolverhampton. Race looked in bag. Horse breaks down.

    1. yep, you need luck in this game and you earn your earn your own luck. They were game and well ridden that pair. Bet you were waiting with anticipation for the freeze photo on the line!

  4. H I Josh…judicious was very badly ridden……got in a bap position from the start…then hummed and hahd….about each move…Judicious didn’t know what he what he wanted and burned up to much energy….still another day at the office.

    1. yep, I thought it looked a bit of an odd ride- but there wasn’t too much pace and quite a few pulled – in saying that winner came from stone last and I didn’t see too many excuses with the trip – I thin he sweated up before the race and maybe the headgear lit him up a tad too much, did hit the front i think but had nothing left in the last 50 yards or so. Given he was in stall 4 he did have a bad position, should have got him out and on rail, and then sat on him. Never mind, that’s flat racing. They will find a race for him but that felt like the one. We shall see what odds he is at in future.

      1. Gabrials Hope? Last of six in a seller at Redcar yesterday…at least you could say it was fit I suppose…Tracy Waggott, another one of those yards its impossible to work out!

        1. yea – she had the ‘green 14’ geegeez symbol, one of few trainers in race who was ‘in form’. Something I am trying to focus on more- as it was with the winner of 7.40, trainer was one of few ‘in form’. Something to look at moving forward. In sense of when 1-3 trainers are ‘in form’ when no others are. That is generally that level though. Unpredictable animals.

          1. How is Tracy Waggott ‘in form’? She was 1/20 in the last 30 days with 2 others placed according to HRB Julie Camacho I will give you… 🙂

        2. Steve

          Re: Tracey Waggott – Check these out – Flat Turf Hcap Sellers- 19 runners 5 winners 10 placed 16.5 pts profit S.P
          Flat Turf Fillies Only Race 26 runners 4 winners 6 placed 51.5 pts profit S.P
          Flat Turf Males Hcap Race 132 runners 22 won 47 plcd 71.33 pts profit S.P
          Waggott also runs a third of her stock in cheekpieces and they are profitable to follow within the first 15 runs of application .
          In Hcaps Flat Turf – Her runners who have had just one run over the course when returning 168 run 23 won 49 placed for a 63 pt profit to SP
          Also when she teams up with Dale Swift or Robert Winston in Hcaps – 123 run 22 winners 42 placed for 65pts profit to SP
          She is also profitable when her runner is clear fav in hcaps 64 run 22 won for 15 pts SP
          Runners returning within 5 days in Hcaps – 115 run 20 won for 34 pts SP
          All profits would be increased by using Betfair.
          Most of Waggotts runners are in Class 4-6 Hcaps and she is playing with basement type stock – surprisingly 54 of her 93 hcap winners since 2005 were placed in the first four in their very last race.

          Hope this helps mate

          Robert

  5. Steve – when I refer to ‘in form’ that is the geegeez symbols on racecards… she had a green 14 which indicated 5+ runners in last 14 days, 20% + win strike rate or 51%+ place strike rate – she was 1/5,2 places in last 14 days. Not as in form as Camacho, but, ‘in form’ 🙂

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