Free Daily Post: 16/07/16 (COMPLETE)

I’m attempting to take refuge in some jumps racing on Saturday after a poor Friday which continued an abject flat season so far for my tips – now on around -16.5 points (may be a couple more i think)- which is far from disastrous but when you have only backed two horses to have run any sort of race from memory, clearly improvement is needed. Orion’s Bow relished the ground and somewhat out-classed them – a possibly group horse in the making maybe, given the way he travelled- and there was me thinking the handicapper may have him and that he may not relish soft. Very wrong. Head up, and on we go..

Anyway, onto a nice handicap chase and it would be welcome if the following horse could run well and win…

 

TIPS 

2.45 Market Rasen 

Germany Calling – 1 point EW– 12/1 (SB/Boyle/BV/PP/Coral) UP

Strange race that and I don’t really know what to make of run of GC. Winner no surprise but I couldn’t take 6s personally in a race like that given perceived chance of other runners. He is clearly going the right way -he pulled  for a long way also, impressive. Fine training/planning from team Skelton as they take the main two races of the day. The selection – well yet another one from me to not really do anything. I can’t say he didn’t stay  for sure and i found the ride a bit odd – maybe an off day as i expected him much further forward but he couldn’t really hold a position and just did nothing turning in. Given proximity to the winner LTO I dont think he has run his race there, for whatever reason. Clearly not good enough on the day. Maybe he couldn’t handle the pace at this level. Unsure. Hopefully all runners and riders are fine after the last fence pile up. 

 

Well this is no 3m+ handicap chase but its not far off and there are a few pointers to help. It looks a decent renewal with plenty of intrigue. Some of the pointers I used were: Not PU LTO/Top 2 in weights have struggled to date/19 or fewer chase runs/and then have ‘marked up’ those that were top 3 LTO, placed on at least one of last two starts…with an eye on those rated OR139 or less. 

I think the first 3 stats/trends remove nos: 1,2,14,16,11. 

Using the others to guide, ignoring rating leaves: Thienval / Valco Du Touzane / Kilfinchen Bay / Germany Calling / Golden Doyen / Tindaro / Monsieur Gibraltar / Cut The Corner 

I have used those as a guide only and have gone through every runner/race in the usual way. 

Germany Calling… well there are a lot of unexposed ones in here stepping out of novice company, and racing in a decent field over fences for the first time. This one is unexposed also (2/6,4 places chasing) but has a bit more experience than a lot in here and looks sure to give this a good go. He needs decent ground and there will be more to come at some point. He ran really well the last day, unable to quicken past the one in front, before they were both done by the Mulholland horse- who is a decent enough yardstick. That was a good run. He is a prominent racer- which in general is where you want to be- and in his jumping career so far has been a fast and fluent jumper. I hope Coleman tries to make all but if not I expect him to be in the front 3/4. No excuses on that front. The trainer- well he is in form 1/3,2 places last 14 days, 3/10,5 places in the last 30 days. He is 4/15,7 places here in handicap chases in last 730 days, 4/16,5 places in same time when Coleman is up. His last run was after 72 days and while maybe needing breaks between races, he could come on for it a bit. You know that this will have been the plan since then, no afterthought. The slight niggle is the trip- this will be the furthest he has gone, up to around 2m6f. He may well appreciate the extra furlong or two and a look at his sires jumping stats suggest there shouldn’t be too much to fear. If he doesn’t quite last, it should be after the last hopefully and worst case some place money back. At the prices, given his profile, connections, and racing style, I thought he looked the most interesting. He also has 9lb less weight on his back than that last run,and that could make a difference for the horse. 

Of the rest.. well it is another of those where nothing would totally surprise (bar the 66/1 outsider who was down to run in Ireland Friday evening) The selection had Henryville, Dormello Mo and Long House Hall behind him the last day and I don’t see why they should really be overturning the form. Long House Hall clearly has a chance in this but 6s is short enough for me – he is usually held up out the back and the stats say that is far from ideal around here. He will have to make up ground at some point, possibly on horses not coming back to him. He may win but is opposable at 6s -track position being the main concern. Henryville put in a tame effort LTO but is unexposed enough. he needs to step up and could be that he wants further. Unexposed. Dormello Mo has enough to prove now, including stamina. Mainly kept to small fields, he folded tamely two starts ago suggesting the gas may have run out. Now 0/5, 0 places 16+ runners. 0/3, 0 places in handicap chases.

Valco Du Touzane is another interesting one – Nicholls sends three and you would be a fool to write of any of his chasers in general, and when a decent pot is up for grabs. I am unsure whether he stays this trip in a strongly run race. Over a bit further LTO he started to weaken two from home and cut out a bit quick for my liking- having had his own way leading for most of the race. There could be stronger stayers in here but I can’t say he can’t win. Ballynagor – he has gone up again in the weights for placing and the stats suggest he has work to do. I suspect there are others with more in hand, he is held up, usually needs longer between races, and in his older years looks like he wants further. He has some class, clearly, so he can win, but it looks tough for him. Sir Valentino has some stamina questions in a race of this nature for me and has the top 2 in the weights stat to overcome. He wasn’t great LTO and is 9lb higher than for that win. Only 7 though. Then there are a bunch of unexposed ones who are not that experienced.

The likes of Thienval and Golden Doyen would have chances – lightly raced from top yards – but this will be unlike any jumping test to date and I want one with a bit more big field, open company, experience on my side. Would a win surprise me? no. But neither would errors etc. Longsdon’s other runner comes into that category and looks up against it also, as does Nicholl’s final runner. Cernunnos is unexposed but this is a step up and has a break of 98 days to overcome. Another hold up horse who is usually played late. Tondaro looks a bit exposed and in any case has some stamina questions for me and class questions. Cut The Corner has gone up in the weights and is in a much better race. I think this may be the jockey’s first ride also. CORRECTION  – its not this jockey’s 1st ride, i think its his 85th under rules- 4/84 so far, inc 0/17,3 places in chasesI.  He is a character and with all these runners could well throw in the towel. Not one to trust, but in form, and from a very good stable. Not impossible. Tony Star looks up against it on recent form, but should provide some more pace I think for his young rider. 

All in all a decent enough race where some of the younger, inexperienced ones may take a step forward – but I am banking on one with only slightly a bit more experience who looks sure to run a big race for most of the way round here. He usually jumps well, travels well and leads/tracks the pace. We should be entertained at least, for most of the way.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None today. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicapper

Under review…

4.oo Cartmel – Gold Chain (12/1<) 

 

Other 

Sat TJC (Hobbs/Johnson) (14/1<) 

2.45 MR – Golden Doyen – 4th 9/1

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

2.30 Newb – Bahaara DNQ 2nd 12/1 / Shawaimsa DNQ 3rd 7/1  (6/1< – had 2x 10/1+ winners this season so far) 

2.40 Newm – Davids Duchess 2nd 8/1 / Mustique- UP (both 16/1<) 

3.15 Newm – Bathos UP / Riflescope  UP(12/1< – 1x 25/1 winner this season,0/19,0 places 12/1+ before that)

5.15 Newb – Danehill Kodiac (6/1<, as above) 

8.20 Ling – Whalewigh Station (9/1<) 

8.50 Ling – Monsieur Jamie (9/1<) 

9.05 Hayd – With Pleasure (12/1<) 

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

 None today. 

**

Post Complete. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. Yes, Germany Calling was an entry that caught my eye so will prob follow you in there.

    I myself cant resist a tickle e/w on Tony Star. There was 50s around but I missed it. Travelled and jumped like a dream out in front in the Uttoxeter Summer Cup before tiring late on (you should watch that if you havent done so yet Josh – you were away at Glasto then. a few from that race go again here).

    Might try and do the same tomorrow and scrape home from the front over the shorter trip

    1. Yep can see why you would have a nobble at 50s which was rather big – his winning form has been over 24f – so I found last run a bit off-putting maybe – clearly went hard but he faded rather tamely and the PU did put me off a bit. But, if he gets loose on the front (and has pace to do so over shorter trip) he could take some stopping as you know he will stay – which is a question for a lot in here. Jockey booking I thought strange, he has a class question and a field size question also. But, he was 50s, and given connections nothing would shock. Good luck, I hope he comes second for you!!

  2. I’m on Tony Star as well, and thought 33’s was a good price!! Bowen’s only runner – he’s won this twice and obviously a trainer to be feared over the Summer., Can’t help but think this is Tony Star’s best trip. I know he’s been running in PTPs over 3Ms but as you suggested didn’t last the trip at Uttoxeter. I like a front runner around MR and whilst there are a few who may take him on, I hope we will get a decent run for our money.

  3. I am also having an e/w on Sir Valentino,wouldn’t read much into last run over hurdles,the race he did win here stepping up from 2m to 2m3f would suggest the extra 2 furlongs here shouldn’t be his undoing,the weight might

  4. Looks like a cracking day of racing tomorrow. I am on the following:
    Such A Legend Market Rasen 16:30
    Germany Calling Market Rasen 14:45
    Juste Pour Nous Ripon 15:10
    Grandads Horse Cartmel 15:25
    Illuminate Newbury 15:35

    Hopefully a cracking day for Charlie Longsdon. Have also had a tiny bet on We Are Ninety in the Irish Oaks

    1. I was also tempted by Grandad’s Horse. Can completely see why youre tempted.

      I went for Tradewinds in the end. Will hopefully have improved jumping after a sketchy first jumping performance. He stayed incredibly well though, which is exactly what may be the key in this race full of front runners. Jumping should be better as he’ll be able to take his fences at a slower pace – LTO was a bit of tear-up over shorter.

  5. Josh, totally off topic but this medium is the only method of contact! Are you a Harbroe-Wright or just a Wright?!!

  6. A couple of good judges have also highlighted GC, Josh, including Andrew Mount on gg.co.uk who has him 11113 when rested for more than 6 weeks (lto 48 days) and racing below Grade 3

    1. Is Andrew Mount actually a good judge? Excuse my ignorance, but he just reminds me of being a drong because he was one of the ones I followed when I started out mug-punting!

      1. Yeah, I’m 20 points up since starting to follow in Feb. Since everyone else (almost) has been having a tough time, I’ll take that. He’s on William Hill radio from time to time if you want to hear his thought processes.

  7. Just to say, Mr C Hammond is 3/21 with 10 places when riding for Dr Newland…given the doctor’s record in general at Market Rasen I think I will be risking a few quid e/w on Cut The Corner.

    1. yep- ignoring the horse , there are plenty of reasons you would expect a big run and good point about BG weight – some money has come also. he is another in the unexposed category and could be smart. Will need to be if he is held up out the back as usual. I wasnt totally convinced by his form to date but could see a different horse today.

    1. good luck Tony- it is an open enough race and you can make some sort of cases for most, including those three. Nothing, bar Harangue, would totally shock me in this.

  8. Hi all, my few away from the main……Nice reports at fair prices.3.45 R.TAPIS LIBRE
    4.45 N.B ROOM KEY
    8.35 H MOSHE
    4.35 C TRACKMATE
    Have a good day all

  9. In the TV hurdle race, 2.15 Mkr, I can’t work out why the market hasn’t latched onto Rejaah. I have a feeling that’s because he’s not trained by Paul Nicholls.

    But anyway, I have had a full-blooded e/w bet on this at 14/1 because he won at an absolute canter LTO, quickened nicely with just a tap on the shoulder. The 2nd horse that day won a C3 hurdle next time out. Has class to my eye, for sure, and entirely unexposed.

    1. Hi Ali, I echo your thoughts on this race. The problem I have is HASSLE stands out along with REJAAH. Hmm. Wish I hadn’t read your post now lol!

  10. Good luck with all your bets gents – I hope one of us has the winner of the 2.45, we have enough horses covered!

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