I’m attempting to take refuge in some jumps racing on Saturday after a poor Friday which continued an abject flat season so far for my tips – now on around -16.5 points (may be a couple more i think)- which is far from disastrous but when you have only backed two horses to have run any sort of race from memory, clearly improvement is needed. Orion’s Bow relished the ground and somewhat out-classed them – a possibly group horse in the making maybe, given the way he travelled- and there was me thinking the handicapper may have him and that he may not relish soft. Very wrong. Head up, and on we go..
Anyway, onto a nice handicap chase and it would be welcome if the following horse could run well and win…
2.45 Market Rasen
Germany Calling – 1 point EW– 12/1 (SB/Boyle/BV/PP/Coral) UP
Strange race that and I don’t really know what to make of run of GC. Winner no surprise but I couldn’t take 6s personally in a race like that given perceived chance of other runners. He is clearly going the right way -he pulled for a long way also, impressive. Fine training/planning from team Skelton as they take the main two races of the day. The selection – well yet another one from me to not really do anything. I can’t say he didn’t stay for sure and i found the ride a bit odd – maybe an off day as i expected him much further forward but he couldn’t really hold a position and just did nothing turning in. Given proximity to the winner LTO I dont think he has run his race there, for whatever reason. Clearly not good enough on the day. Maybe he couldn’t handle the pace at this level. Unsure. Hopefully all runners and riders are fine after the last fence pile up.
Well this is no 3m+ handicap chase but its not far off and there are a few pointers to help. It looks a decent renewal with plenty of intrigue. Some of the pointers I used were: Not PU LTO/Top 2 in weights have struggled to date/19 or fewer chase runs/and then have ‘marked up’ those that were top 3 LTO, placed on at least one of last two starts…with an eye on those rated OR139 or less.
I think the first 3 stats/trends remove nos: 1,2,14,16,11.
Using the others to guide, ignoring rating leaves: Thienval / Valco Du Touzane / Kilfinchen Bay / Germany Calling / Golden Doyen / Tindaro / Monsieur Gibraltar / Cut The Corner
I have used those as a guide only and have gone through every runner/race in the usual way.
Germany Calling… well there are a lot of unexposed ones in here stepping out of novice company, and racing in a decent field over fences for the first time. This one is unexposed also (2/6,4 places chasing) but has a bit more experience than a lot in here and looks sure to give this a good go. He needs decent ground and there will be more to come at some point. He ran really well the last day, unable to quicken past the one in front, before they were both done by the Mulholland horse- who is a decent enough yardstick. That was a good run. He is a prominent racer- which in general is where you want to be- and in his jumping career so far has been a fast and fluent jumper. I hope Coleman tries to make all but if not I expect him to be in the front 3/4. No excuses on that front. The trainer- well he is in form 1/3,2 places last 14 days, 3/10,5 places in the last 30 days. He is 4/15,7 places here in handicap chases in last 730 days, 4/16,5 places in same time when Coleman is up. His last run was after 72 days and while maybe needing breaks between races, he could come on for it a bit. You know that this will have been the plan since then, no afterthought. The slight niggle is the trip- this will be the furthest he has gone, up to around 2m6f. He may well appreciate the extra furlong or two and a look at his sires jumping stats suggest there shouldn’t be too much to fear. If he doesn’t quite last, it should be after the last hopefully and worst case some place money back. At the prices, given his profile, connections, and racing style, I thought he looked the most interesting. He also has 9lb less weight on his back than that last run,and that could make a difference for the horse.
Of the rest.. well it is another of those where nothing would totally surprise (bar the 66/1 outsider who was down to run in Ireland Friday evening) The selection had Henryville, Dormello Mo and Long House Hall behind him the last day and I don’t see why they should really be overturning the form. Long House Hall clearly has a chance in this but 6s is short enough for me – he is usually held up out the back and the stats say that is far from ideal around here. He will have to make up ground at some point, possibly on horses not coming back to him. He may win but is opposable at 6s -track position being the main concern. Henryville put in a tame effort LTO but is unexposed enough. he needs to step up and could be that he wants further. Unexposed. Dormello Mo has enough to prove now, including stamina. Mainly kept to small fields, he folded tamely two starts ago suggesting the gas may have run out. Now 0/5, 0 places 16+ runners. 0/3, 0 places in handicap chases.
Valco Du Touzane is another interesting one – Nicholls sends three and you would be a fool to write of any of his chasers in general, and when a decent pot is up for grabs. I am unsure whether he stays this trip in a strongly run race. Over a bit further LTO he started to weaken two from home and cut out a bit quick for my liking- having had his own way leading for most of the race. There could be stronger stayers in here but I can’t say he can’t win. Ballynagor – he has gone up again in the weights for placing and the stats suggest he has work to do. I suspect there are others with more in hand, he is held up, usually needs longer between races, and in his older years looks like he wants further. He has some class, clearly, so he can win, but it looks tough for him. Sir Valentino has some stamina questions in a race of this nature for me and has the top 2 in the weights stat to overcome. He wasn’t great LTO and is 9lb higher than for that win. Only 7 though. Then there are a bunch of unexposed ones who are not that experienced.
The likes of Thienval and Golden Doyen would have chances – lightly raced from top yards – but this will be unlike any jumping test to date and I want one with a bit more big field, open company, experience on my side. Would a win surprise me? no. But neither would errors etc. Longsdon’s other runner comes into that category and looks up against it also, as does Nicholl’s final runner. Cernunnos is unexposed but this is a step up and has a break of 98 days to overcome. Another hold up horse who is usually played late. Tondaro looks a bit exposed and in any case has some stamina questions for me and class questions. Cut The Corner has gone up in the weights and is in a much better race. I think this may be the jockey’s first ride also. CORRECTION – its not this jockey’s 1st ride, i think its his 85th under rules- 4/84 so far, inc 0/17,3 places in chasesI. He is a character and with all these runners could well throw in the towel. Not one to trust, but in form, and from a very good stable. Not impossible. Tony Star looks up against it on recent form, but should provide some more pace I think for his young rider.
All in all a decent enough race where some of the younger, inexperienced ones may take a step forward – but I am banking on one with only slightly a bit more experience who looks sure to run a big race for most of the way round here. He usually jumps well, travels well and leads/tracks the pace. We should be entertained at least, for most of the way.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
4.oo Cartmel – Gold Chain (12/1<)
Sat TJC (Hobbs/Johnson) (14/1<)
2.45 MR – Golden Doyen – 4th 9/1
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
2.30 Newb – Bahaara DNQ 2nd 12/1 / Shawaimsa DNQ 3rd 7/1 (6/1< – had 2x 10/1+ winners this season so far)
2.40 Newm – Davids Duchess 2nd 8/1 / Mustique- UP (both 16/1<)
3.15 Newm – Bathos UP / Riflescope UP(12/1< – 1x 25/1 winner this season,0/19,0 places 12/1+ before that)
5.15 Newb – Danehill Kodiac (6/1<, as above)
8.20 Ling – Whalewigh Station (9/1<)
8.50 Ling – Monsieur Jamie (9/1<)
9.05 Hayd – With Pleasure (12/1<)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE