(I have just moved the trends/stats to the comments, below)
TATLISU – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) UP
MY NAME IS RIO – 1 point win – 20/1 (general) UP
The stats and trends don’t help with this one too much – those I looked at ‘removing’ Lulu The Zulu,Taexali,Mickey. Let’s jump straight to the horses…
Well, the first thing to say is that it is forecast to bucket it down. This should be run on soft, maybe worse. (if the forecasts are correct- ground good as it stands)
Tatlisu – well you can’t help but be drawn in here by the trainer form in this race and the fact that this one came close last year- one horse Pyle Vinnie dotted up in this last year – he was held up, struggled for a run at times and then switched around runners, and ran on strongly. It would be no surprise if this race has been the season, or mid season, target. His run last time caught the eye – he looks to be coming back into form, and I don’t think had the kitchen sink thrown at him, in a race where being that far back was not beneficial. IF there is no track/rain bias in the ground, I think he could well be over-turning the form with those three in front of him that day – Hoof It, New Bidder, Intense Style. That of courss, in part, is dependent on this being the plan. The jockey takes off a useful 5lb which means he is 1lb below that run last time, when including claims. His win in the Ayr Silver Cup shows that he has a touch of class and this larger field, with guranteed place all over the place (on paper at least) should play into his hands. 8s looked fair and I expect a decent enough run. The possible negative is the draw, but I will get onto that in a moment.
My Name Is Rio- hmm well 20s just struck me as a bit of a big price in this – for a horse that is in form, running well, will handle the ground- well he will enjoy it, may well appreciate this stiff finish and the pace. He is a sprinter, aged 6, and it is becoming apparent that some/many sprinters can come into there own at this age, improving on past form when you think they may not quite be good enough. He has come a close 3rd in the Ayr Bronze Cup and I can’t say he can’t win at this level- and this race is not as strong as many a C2 sprint handicap. It is decent, but there will be many stronger. The last run – well I have watched it again and he ran ok. He was a bit taken off his feet early I think and the winners/placers simply didn’t come back. He kept on near the end, as he did with his win two starts ago. To win at that track, over that trip, from right out the back was fairly impressive – again he had a fast pace to aim at and he was strong in the finish- to my eye looks like he could have pulled away more over further. A stiff 6f, on soft, with a strong pace to aim at, could see him out-run his odds here. He has the second best speed rating in the race which was also interesting for me. Maybe he doesn’t have the class but he is in form and I though 20s, in these conditions, looked generous.
PACE/race set-up… for the last few years this race has gone to those nearer the stands rail but on the actual draw stats, on soft over this trip, in fields this size, the only negative has been for those drawn 1-5. There have been winners and placed horses across all other stalls. It could be there is a track bias and if that is the case both of these may struggle but I can’t fancy and higher drawn ones here, over the selections. Nameitwhatyoulike (who could go well in this) likes to force the pace usually, and he is drawn 8. Munfallet in 16 (if good enough to lead) likes to get on with it, as does Hoof It in 14 and Cornwallville (7) likes to be up there. There are also a few pace pushers in here who often race prominently. Now, jockeys may take it easier due to the ground, but on paper at least this race shouldn’t be lacking for pace. As such, i am hoping it may set up for a closer- with the leaders doing too much in this ground and folding late- both of the selections are closers and if it does go to one near the front, it won’t be either of these two.
As always in a race like this you can make a case for a few. A few don’t have proven form in soft, some haven’t tried it many times, which makes it tricky. Blaine – well he has to prove he enjoys really soft and is 12lb higher than for that Epsom win, which hasn’t worked out well . He was poor LTO but maybe he didn’t like the AW. He is smart on his day and if handling soft, and repeated that Epsom run, may give it a good go. Orion’s Bow is going for the 5 timer. I would like to think the handicapper may have him now, and he also has a question over the going – if the rain arrives as expected. Nameitwhatyoulike progressed a lot last year, aged 6, and ran well on seasonal reappearance. He has since had 84 days off which was a bit off putting and Fanning is 0/6,0 places for the yard in last 730 days. Trainer is in form, but while he should lead low, he shouldn’t get all his own way. Hopefully he forces a strong pace. Amazour is unexposed and progressive – soft an unknown – if handling it may go well enough. The two 3 year olds are clearly unexposed and could get involved, but both have enough questions for me in a race like this – neither has won over 6f as yet. Hoof It/Intense Style/New Bidder- all three may be close enough again, based on their last run. I think Tatlisu may overturn it, if not inconvenienced by the draw, and they will need to step forward again for me. But, I wouldn’t be in shock if one won, as I wouldn’t with most of these. Intisaab is short enough for one having gone up again in the weights and with a ground question to answer. Looks progressive though so again, a big run would be no shock. Competitive as always.
Hopefully one of these two can improve on my questionable flat form in the ‘tips’ , so far this season. I think they will both out-run these odds and I just hope after 1f it is clear they are going a strong pace – the harder the better for the both of them.
There is a 3m+ handicap chase on Ireland, a decent one, but I will leave it. I don’t bet/follow Irish racing that closely- or closely enough to make tackling a race like this a bit easier – I don’t know the horse, the trainers that well, or the tracks. It also looks rather competitive (using geegeez instant expert tab,win and place, with not too many, on the face of it, you can dismiss. I will just stick to the race above)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(Running total: +20.5 points)
Hidden Gem – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) UP 12/1
The market may well guide for this one (and early signs may not be that positive) but at the odds, given some of the stats, circumstances, I thought he was worth a go. The way in was the trainer form here- he has only sent 10 runners, 3 have won, 6 have won or placed. In handicaps in the last 730 days those stats are 2/5, 4 places. He is not a prolific winner with handicap debutants in the last year, but over the las two is 10/54, 21 places. This one his having his first start on turf and I found it interesting that his sire is 7/17,11 wins/places with all runners at the track, 4/9,6 places in handicaps (in last 730 days) He should relish the ground. Ponte is only due a spot of rain that should take the sting out – It should not be going any worse than Good, if forecasts are correct. So, we shall wait and see on that front. This one steps up by 3 furlongs from his maiden runs and is well related to some smart enough middle distance horses. It should suit and from the odds etc it doesn’t look like he was ever there to run well. The break of 51 days is interesting, for this type of runner. Given a bit of time to further develop maybe, and/or actually trained for fitness and ‘to go’. Maybe a wind op. Or of course, there has been a problem. The trainer is in form – a green ’14’- 2/17 last 14 days, but over 50% have placed. They are running well enough. Finally, it looked like the Fahey/Johnston horses (the only two being backed) could take each other on at the front. I hope they do. This isn’t the greatest of races and at 8s, given all the above, I thought he looked worth an interest.
That is all for today
Meehan Maidens (any odds)
4.05 Notts: Alaskan Breeze
8.25 Newm: Sistine Chapal / Nawkhatha
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
5.35 Notts – Douglas Bank (any odds) UP
6.50 New- Ravenhoe (12/1<) UP
7.30 Ponte – El Viento (9/1<) DNQ
8.05 Ponte – Spring Offensive (9/1<) 2nd
8.45 Ham- Falcons Fire (any) WON 5/1>3/1
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
None today. There are plenty of races of interest, but I have run out of time. That lot above has taken 3 hours, so I will leave it there.
NOTE: Long Awaited (previous ‘tip’) runs in the 3.50 Haydock today. I can’t work out if he likes soft or not. 0/8,0 places on soft, but in his early days he won on Heavy. I am unsure if that is an anomaly say. Interested to see how he goes but at around 6s I won’t be ‘tipping him‘.