Saturday Trends: Market Rasen

It doesn’t look like there are any 5-7f flat handicaps with trends/stats etc etc. So, we shall go jumping at Market Rasen – which is no bad thing 🙂 

First up is the Summer Plate, followed by the Summer Hurdle…

 

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Market Rasen: Summer Plate (Chase)

17 renewals

253 runners, 58 placed horses

 

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • WON: 10/17,
    • 10/95, 30 places
  • Top 3: 14/17
    • 14/155, 45 places…82% winners…,78% places.. from 61% of runners
  • Pulled Up: 0/16, 0 places

 

Horse Age

  • Nothing overly significant. Winners all ages, 6-11
    • 5: 0/5, 0 places
    • 12+ : 0/4,2 places

Days Since Run

  • Nothing overly significant
    • 121+ days: 0/16, 2 places (121-150 days… 0/4, 2 places)

Horse Weight (exc jockey claim)

  • 11-8+ : 0/41, 14 places
    • 11-12: 0/16, 8 places

Horse Official Rating

  • 16/17 OR 135 or below
    • 136+ : 1/54, 13 places
      • 140+ : 0/26, 9 places

Season Runs

  • Nothing too significant

Wins (Distance)

  • Nothing too significant

Position In Market

  • Clear Fav: 5/14, 9 places
  • Clear+Joint Fav: 6/20, 10 places
  • Top 2 in market: 8/35, 15 places

Odds

  • 13/17 : 9/1 or shorter SP
  • 15/17: 16/1 or shorter SP
  • 17/17: 25/1 or shorter SP
  • Above 25/1 SP: 0/32, 3 places

 

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 2/57, 8 places
  • IRE: 11/124, 33 places
  • FR: 4/56,15 places

Headgear

  • Nothing sig. Winners wearing CP/Blink/Visor (6/58 ,11p total)

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Top 2 in weights: (inc joint): 0/38, 12 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 20+ chase runs: 0/44, 11 places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 14/17 had 0-8 handicap chase runs
  • 17/17 had 0-14 handicap chase runs
  • 15+ handicap chase runs: 0/52, 10 places

H- Run (track)

  • Track form not overly important: 8/100,26 places had 0 runs at track previously

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 16/17 had placed on at least one of last two runs
    • Did not: 1/50, 7 places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 5+ handicap chase wins: 0/20, 4 places

H-Win (Track)

  • 2+ : 0/29, 4 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Five Runs

  • 17/17 Top 2 at least once in last 5 runs.
    • Were not: 0/20, 2 places

Highest Class Win

  • Yet to win above C4/5: 0/18, 2 places

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 0-1 chase places: 0/9, 0 places
  • 9+ chase places: 1/55, 14 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • C1: 1/32, 3 places

(LR) Track

  • Stratford: 4/41, 13 places
  • Worcester: 3/26, 9 places
  • Ffos Las: 2/5, 4 places
  • Perth: 1/22,4 places
  • Market R: 1/42, 6 places
  • Uttox: 1/30, 4 places
  • Other 1 win: Ayr/Sandown/Hunt/Hayd/Cartmel
  • Chelt: 0/7, 1 place
  • Aintree: 0/7, 0 places
  • NA: 0/7, 2 places

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • P Bowen: 4/28, 10 places
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 2/17, 5 places
  • Martin Pipe: 2/15, 4 places
  • David Pipe: 1/9, 3 places
  • 1 win each: Dr Newland/Lawney Hill/P Nicholls/NTD/N Richards/P Webber/K Reveley
  • A King: 0/8, 2 places
  • Evan Williams: 0/8, 3 places
  • Tim Vaughan: 0/6, 0 places
  • P Hobbs: 0/8, 2 places
  • N Henderson: 0/4, 0 places
  • Mrs S Smith: 0/7, 0 places
  • Miss V Williams: 0/5, 0 places
  • B Ellison: 0/7, 1 places

***

 

Market Rasen: Summer Hurdle

17 renewals

242 runners, 59 placed horses

 

TRENDS

 

Previous Place

  • 11/17 Top 2 LTO
    • 11/124, 38 places….65% winners…51% runners…64% places

Horse Age

  • 17/17 Aged 4-8
    • 9+ : 0/24, 4 places

Days Since Run

  • 17/17 ran 1-75 days ago
    • 76+ Days: 0/16, 2 places
    • 16-20 days ago: 0/35, 4 places (possibly just random)
    • 31-45 days ago: 0/35, 7 places (as above)

 

Horse Weight (exc jokey claims)

  • 11-11+ : 0/19, 2 places
  • 10-3-10-13: 1/102, 19 places (could just be random or something in it)

Horse Official Rating

  • Nothing significant

Season Runs

  • Nothing significant

Wins (Distance)

  • 2+ : 0/25, 3 places

Position In Market

  • 12/17 Top 4 in betting

Odds

  • 12/17 : 8/1 or shorter SP
  • 2 winners at 33/1
    • 40/1 + : 0/18, 1 place

 

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 3/85, 17 places
  • IRE: 11/105, 30 places
  • USA: 1/16,5 places
  • FR: 1/13, 2 places
  • GER: 1/18, 2 places

Headgear

  • CP: 2/15, 2 places
  • Blinkers/Visor: 0/30, 5 places (0/15 each)
  • Hood/blinkers: 1/1

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Bottom Weights: 4/26, 13 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

  • 0: 0/14, 0 places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 15/17 had 0-15 hurdle runs
    • 16+ : 2/62, 12 places…3% winners…26% winners…20% places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 12/17 had 0-5 handicap hurdle wins
    • 12/122, 36 places…71% winners…50% runners…61% places

H- Run (track)

  • 0 runs: 10/135, 31 places
  • 3+ track runs: 0/24, 5 places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 0-1 wins: 0/15, 3 places
  • 15/17… 2-5 career wins
    • 6+ : 2/91, 14 places…12% winners…38% runners…24% places

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 5+ hurdle wins: 0/37, 4 places

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 15/17 had 0-3 handicap wins
    • 4+ : 2/72, 14 places… 12% winners…30% runners…24% places

H-Win (Track)

  • 2+ : 0/9, 0 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

  • 16/17 : Top 2 at least once in last 3 runs
    • Did not: 1/52, 8 places

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 17/17 3-7 places in all hurdle races
    • 0-2 hurdle places: 0/19, 4 places
    • 8+ : 0/59, 8 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

  • Chase: 0/24, 2 places

 

(LR) Track

  • Stratford: 3/41, 10 places
  • Newton Abbot: 2/10, 4 places
  • Market Rasen: 2/15, 5 places
  • Wetherby: 2/3, 2 places
  • Worcester: 2/18, 5 places
  • 1 win: Newcastle/Ascot/Kilbeggan/Haydock/Newmarket (july)/Sandown
  • Perth: 0/12, 2 places
  • Uttox: 0/14, 1 place

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • Martin Pipe: 3/10, 3 places (as possible pointer to David, obviously)
  • John Ferguson: 2/4,2 places (no longer training)
  • 1 win each: Bowen/JJ Quinn/P Webber/R Fahey/L Dace/Dr Newland (1/5,4 places)/ S Gollings/NTD/O Meara/C Mann/C Roche
  • E Williams: 0/7, 1 place
  • David Pipe: 0/14, 3 places (not quite his Dad then!)
  • B Ellison: 0/7, 2 places
  • P Hobbs: 0/11, 2 places
  • N Henderson: 0/5, 2 places

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    Many thanks for these as usual. I am determined to get the Plate right this year since getting it wrong cost me the best part of £300k last year. BTW there are no Saturday sprints with trends but there is the Scottish Steward’s Cup tomorrow at Hamilton which is a C2 6f sprint with trends on HRB.

    Regards,
    Nick

    1. HI Nick,
      Cheers, yep had yet to glance at tomorrow’s cards. Will have a look at trends/race and see if anything worthwhile ro have a go at. Albeit given my general flat form I will tread carefully!

    1. yep, I definitely getting to a place to have a go at Germany calling on my first look through. I fear team Nicholls, possibly Schofield’s but need to go through race properly yet

      1. I know you don’t tip in those races (although its 2m6f so not too far off 3m) but if you like Germany Calling than I am sure you will find the price of Such a Legend back down in Grade interesting in the 4:30. I certainly have.

  2. Paul Nicholls is having a mare of a time at Market Rasen lately. 0/15 since 2010 before today’s racing.

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