I will get straight to it…
June Results:
TIPS: 2/11 = – 4 points
Micro Systems
June Trainers: 4/37 = +8 points
Jumps Handicappers: 1/12 = – 5 points
Other: 0/14 = -14 points
Total: 5/63 = -11 points
TTP: 10/68 = +1.7 points
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
1/18 = -9 points
***
2016 TOTAL: to End of June
TIPS
186 bets | 29 wins | 32 W/P | 15.6% sr | +106.85 points (advised prices)
2016 TIPS RESULTS TO DATE: PDF HERE>>>
MICRO SYSTEMS (exc TTP)
56/406 = -24.4 points
TTP
14/114 = -4.05 points
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
3/33 = +3 points
***
Brief Reflections
Tips: Not much to say on this front. My approach is quite clear and nothing has changed really as yet. It hasn’t been a great few months for the tips but in the wider context far from a disaster. Clearly many followers may have missed all of the profits in the early part of the year. I could also do with finding a big priced winner of a flat race – but I am only one winner away from wiping out all of the losses over last few weeks. And, at the prices I play at, these losing runs are inevitable. I am less busy at this time of year than in the winter months, and I am trying to address that through the ‘Sprint Handicap Testing Zone’ but that will take time. The ‘Stats/Angles Of Interest’ section is also new, in this form, since mid may and that has had an OK start, but nothing more. Profits have tended to come in lumps, and they will do so again at some point. Onwards.
Micro Systems: These are clearly not performing that well at the moment albeit they still remain a handful of winners from bouncing into profit. Most of the trainers I think remain 1-3 winners away from bouncing into profit. Still, the results to date are a bit concerning and it may be that aspects of the portfolio require work moving forwards. They will, fingers crossed, throw up some decent priced winners in time, but in truth I have been saying that all year. The profits have yet to materialise.
TTP: New this year, for the Flat, this combination of systems haven’t done much as yet, albeit again results are not disastrous. We shall see if they can go into profit in the remaining months of the season, before I review them over the winter and work out how to take them forward next year.
***
5 Responses
I feel your pain Josh, from a starting portfolio of 78 systems from last October, I have had to gut no less than 64 of them! The old financial disclaimer ‘past performance is no guarantee of future success’ certainly rings true in racing. The problem, as I see it, is that most systems are based on trainer past performance but for reasons not apparent to an outsider those habits suddenly become redundant. It isn’t just a case of the bookies catching on and reducing the odds on certain types of runners, although that has definitely wiped out any profits that anybody used to get on Mark Prescott’s first time handicappers and Michael Appleby’s runners at Southwell. Roger Varians runners in a hood used to throw big profits but the last two years barely break even. Its like trying to hit a moving target!
yep, they/I/that approach, may need a bit of a re-think. Being more focused/more niche may be the way forward. Your points are all valid, which is why you must always keep an eye on them. I do think the trainer track approach is valid if you get them right – some trainers are definitely creatures of habit on that front – but the angles have to be clever, not followed by masses. Some of them – and this is a risk – can depend on the quality of horse a trainer gets – say a maiden system – and they could change approach and/or have poor quality animals, lose a big owner etc etc. Some work to do.
I suppose you would need to look at a trend in trainer stats,to see if the profit is dwindling or pretty stable,one of the tricks possibly is to spot trends before the market latches on,they cant stop a succssfull trend,but they can make it unprofitable,but to push one down others will rise,Ken Slack was very profitable last season,he may be successfull and profitable again,or he may be successfull but unprofitable,he may be neither successfull or profitable but if you sit on one side of the seesaw the other will rise
I dont know anyone who has done well over the last 3 months. I was looking forward to summer jumper winnings via Gary Moore and Mr Greatrex, but it has not been forthcoming. Maybe the ground, maybe just out of form?
I used to follow Dandy Nicholls at Glorious Goodwood. Is there any way in there?
Isn;t Dandy one of those trainers where the quality of the hrses in his yard has deteoriated considerably over the last few years?