Free Daily Post: 13/07/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS 

None.

Two 3m novice handicap chases from Uttoxeter that I will just watch with interest. 

A disappointing tip yesterday who ran no sort of race and I am unsure why. But, you have to move forward and try and learn. First point – Velator led, which isn’t something he had ever done before in his career. This was his 4th start for the trainer and I suppose they simply had the view that they would try something different, to try and get him more competitive. So, asking, is there any reason a horse would change running tactics. Application of headgear can be one sometimes, new connections etc. The winner Bincombe – well I was ultimately put off by slight doubts about stamina – he hadn’t had too many goes at these trips and had stayed 2m,5f well enough. But, he ticked every other box. Trainer in red hot form, and the trainer/jockey combo do well here form limited runners. They were 4/12,5 places in handicaps when I pulled together summer jumps guide. So, he was 0/4 0 places beyond 2m5f in handicap chases but that was the only doubt – 4/5 on good, 3/6,5 places in Class 4, 3/6 rated in 111-120 ratings range, now 0/8, 1 place 121+ (so, a handicap ratings dropper to track for the future) It was his first run at the track but had performed at similar types. He wasn’t great LTO but that was after a break.

The learning point – well when a horse is 12/1 what should you overlook – can you always overlook one factor, when everything else is so strong. And of course, that was in the context that while it looked open, there were reasons why many wouldn’t perform. I didn’t think through that this one could be there 2 from home – and everything else may have thrown in the towel – and if that was the case being and out and out stayer wouldn’t be crucial. He looked to be running on gas a bit at the end and I would have doubts over 24f (this was 23) and in a stronger race. But, that was ‘only’ his 20th chase start. 

Anyway. That is how I like to analyse tipped races. Never good when money is down the drain but you have always got to try and move forward with  your thinking, which can always develop and improve, clearly! 

**

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total = +23.5 points) * 

*I should add, I put as much time into the horse put up in these sections as I do with a tipped horse. The difference, well there are two – one the ‘ways in’ clearly differ and I restrict myself to a narrow race type for tips, because long term, that is what I have been best at (despite recent results). And this bit is more ‘statty’ I suppose and is ‘horse focused, rather than ‘race focused’ if that makes sense… ie…The other – well I don’t analyse the oppo in as much depth as I do with tips etc. They are the main differences and as always it is crystal clear why I like something. I changed the approach for this section in mid May, and it has still to prove itself, but it is going the right way at last. In time, these may well just become ‘tips’ and be thrown in with those above. A long way to go yet though. 

 

4.00 Uttoxeter 

Moss Street – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) 2nd 8/1*

*that’s the kind of losing ‘tip’ I can more than live with- decent enough run, entertained all the way to the last, looking like possible winner, only finding one too good after the last which was the fav who was entitled to do that if building on his last run, but not type I personally would ever take 3s about. They will find a weak race for him no doubt, this appears to be his level. It was exciting for 90% of way up home straight at least before clear after last it was game over. Vics Last Stand rather out-ran his eventual 25/1 odds as well in 3rd. 

This one looks the most interesting here (along with Keith Rs Vics Last Stand who makes handicap debut and at least brings something different to the table in this). The ‘way in’ was the geegeez trainer form icons – John Flint has a green ’30’ whereas no other trainer has any ‘in form’ symbols, according to their criteria. Indeed he is 3/14, 7 places in the last 30 days, 1/6, 2 places in the last 14 days. So, they are going well enough. He is 1/5, 1 place in handicap hurdles here in last 730 days. Clearly doesn’t send many but those stats are not off-putting. With  this jockey in handicap hurdles in last 730 days – 2/31, 10 places – win stats are modest but places fine and in truth this yard do not exactly have many quality horses. He is a decent enough jockey at this level. The horse- well this is a weak race where I couldn’t really trust some of the principles and you are a brave punter taking under 6/7/8s in a C5 handicap hurdle in my opinion. This one started out with Gordon Elliot and he did win a couple of races with him, including a maiden hurdle. That may have been weak but at least showed he had some ability. Next – well the handicap mark is of interest now. He left Elliot and made his handicap debut, on first run, for A E Jones off OR119. Now on his 4th start for Mr Flint, he runs off OR97. He also drops into Class 5 for the very first time in handicap hurdle company. Finally, there were more signs of life last time out – placing at least at Ffos Las in a C4 race. He was beaten 21L but that is the level we are dealing with. That came after removing the headgear/TT which had been on for some time, across trainers. Maybe he likes the change and they have sorted his breathing or something. He may just be useless, but at 8/1, given the above and in a race packed full of moderate horses, there were plenty of reasons why he may be the best of this lot, on the day. 

 

NO others today. Looks like the ‘day of the 3 year olds’ – so many 3yo only races which I don’t really like. I have 19 horses on my note pad from a ‘stats way in’ but due to either odds, being a 3yo only race, or trainer not in the form I would like, I have left them all! No doubt the odd winner on there but I will keep an eye on how they got on. Nothing else stands out having gone through ‘part two’ of the process, going through every race with geegeez racecards/instant-expert tab. 

So, I will just stick with the one above. 

 

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Other 

Meehan Maidens (any odds)

1.50 Ling: Giennah – UP

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

Yarmouth- (10/1<)

6.15 – Go On Gal – 2nd 

7.20 – Dakota City – 

 

***

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

this is a TEST remember- plenty to learn and it may well be a long journey until I am at a stage to ‘tip’ any of these. Its up to you whether you back them or not but the record to date suggests that may be unwise at this moment in time! 

5.00 Catt

Best Trip – 1 point EW – 8/1 (Boyle/Lad) 7/1 (general)  WON 6/1 – +7.2 points 

Manatee Bay – 1 point EW – 10/1 (BV/PP/WH) UP -2 points 

Well, these two come from the ‘sprinters in form their handicap mark may not matter as much’ line of thought! On the face of it the pair may be up against it I think but both have been running very consistently and the race may pan out for them…

Best Trip – the pace catches the eye – this is the only out and out front runner in the race and from this draw he could get away on the front end. He is holding his form well and did win of 83 back in the day for Brian Ellison – I cant say he cant win from this mark. 3 runs ago he was caught late here by a more progressive one, chased in 3rd by Manatee Bay and on the weight swing (given BT ridden by 5lb claimer and has gone up a tad) that should bring them closer together. That run in the C3 at Donny caught the eye also – he was the pace-maker for a stable mate there, who won, but was able to maintain a strong gallop at the head of a C3 field, over a trip too far, for some way. I think he will give this a good go from the front and will be a tad annoyed if 3 horses go past him late!. But, we shall see if I have called that right. 

Manatee Bay – well again this mark may be pushing it a bit but he has the best geegeez speed figure in here and is just running well. From my notes so far , from winners to date, the majority have simply been in form and running well- rather than desperately out of form and bouncing back from nowhere, due to changes in conditions (of course there will be the odd bet like that, esp when odds allow). If I fancy Best Trip to run well, based on their last meeting at Catterick, I have to think this one will go close also. He should be able to get a good position and will be staying on at the end. 10s looked decent enough. 0/4, 2 places over CD..

Of the rest – well I thought ustinov may need the run – albeit he is being backed which suggests he may be ready. I may be wrong but off thr top of my head I can’t recall too many from O’Meara going in first time up this season. This one is unexposed and could have some in hand here. Spirit of Zeb seems unfancied for a LTO winner. 5lb may or may not hold him back here- he was a bit poor at this track in a C5 a couple of starts back. Meshardal has an obvious chance on his profile for this – Ruth may be starting to go cold again – or hitting one of those hot/cold periods where hard to tell. 7/2 short enough for me. Badly hampered LTO he was/is in form but is a hold up horse and will have to close this leader who may not come back to them. I was happy to leave the other. 

 

That will do for today. Nothing I fancy at prices at Lingfield and Yarmouth race looks tricky. 10/13 aged 3 or 4, and they had 11mm rain last night, so any guess as to what the ground is actually like. I will leave them. 

***

POST COMPLETE

Good luck with your bets. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

    1. Phew, glad you had him! That section starting to roll a bit – well, at least keep my head above water anyway! Great ride, very close and horrible tv angle!

  1. Nice one Josh, doubled this with my other one for the day yesterday Creggs pipes–Killarney 11/2.
    Today Did Final and Mr Ormsby 11/4 and 15/8, along with singles on all 4.
    Bank looks healthier now.
    MOTTO………..Stay with Josh for DOSH.

    Mike

    1. Good stuff Mike – its a long trudge this game at times, I have learnt that much! Hard work and dedication usually pays off in time, and it has done since mid 2014 on this blog, since its inception. Just have to work harder during the sticky bits – and well, since end of feb it has been a bit up and down – mainly down! That’s how it goes. Not for the want of trying. I will always keep faith in myself, long term- whether others do is up to them, up to me to prove it with results, over time. And, that is only a couple of recent winners for that section, so no getting ahead of myself. A long way to go…but it will be November soon haha

  2. If River Purple 5.05 could recapture some of its form from last year he has a lot in his favour and the 20/1 would be very generous,will have small bet e/w and hope that it stays the dead 8,zero confidence,100% hopefull plunge

    1. Close second in the race last year, an Brian Hughes has a good level-stakes profit riding for the yard.

      I think he’s interesting too.

    2. Tricky race; De Gooch is a proposition returned to fences on soft, with blinkers added. Crucially, perhaps, the horse has had a 2 month break as well, having won fresh before.

      1. Looks an interesting race- I will sit it out but can see at the prices why you would have a small nibble on River Purple. I do think there are a few too many young guns open to improvement in here, or younger legs in any case. I would be on Thinger Licht I think, if I had to bet- bit short now with the non runner. That was after a 2 minute glance though!

        1. I’m with River Purple, too much of a course specialist to ignore & now 2lb below when winning race 2 years ago – a negative perhaps for Degooch is that he has headgear first time which are only 1/45 since I been collecting data here?

  3. Thanks for that winner Josh, nice one! Needed it.

    Nothing for Wednesday yet. I do know someone who backed Lincoln Red Imps to beat Celtic at 35/1. Good start for Brendan Rogers.

    1. Cheers Martin, I think we all needed it! A good few days with that section, can hopefully build on it further in coming days. Ah, good old Brenda. Am sure he will get them firing, maybe!

  4. Hi Josh,

    I thought I might as well ask here instead of over email since I think its an interesting point for discussion. A couple of weeks ago when you were enjoying Glastonbury we had the John Smith Summer Cup where given Menorah’s participation half the field were out of the handicap. Now to me barring some handicap good-thing lurking in there it seemed easy to discount any horse more than a pound or two out of the handicap and I think the front five finishers also confirmed this. This weekend we have the Summer Plate and it looks like Ballynagour will line up and we will get a similar situation where a good portion of the field will be out of the handicap. Do you agree its worth following the same strategy? Thoughts would be appreciated.

    Regards,
    Nick

    1. Hi Nick,

      It is an interesting angle and I am yet to cast my eyes onto the race/possible trends (which if there are weight ones, may be irrelevant) – It very much depends i think- in terms of chasing – certainly in the winter months – and 3m+ chases I have always put more emphasis on liking for going, jumping, stamina and other ‘profile factors’. Of course you have to judge whether you think the classy horse will run up to their mark etc and whether they can carry the actual weight, and give it away. You also have idea that some horses near bottom – because of their size maybe – will appreciate having a lighter weight on their back – which could be more important than being ‘up against it’ in terms of weight/ratings. For jumpers – a pound or two doesn’t make a difference for me, given other factors- more the class factor in that respect maybe.

      I don’t think there is a set approach for this kind of thing, very much depends on the race, and the horses. Its not something I have ever looked at in depth – from memory it didn’t seem to happen very often in the winter jumps game. You can always hedge bets if backing two, and make sure one is from the ‘right end’ of weights.

      They are some immediate thoughts, some of which may not be that well thought through!
      josh

      1. Thanks. No agree this doesn’t happen very often I don’t think. Probably has happened twice in a month given the lack of jumps horses in training.

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