Free Daily Post: 14/07/16 (COMPLETE)

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD STATS BOOK 

In case you missed my email a couple of days ago, Gavin Priestley (of nag-nag-nag,also Gary’s brother) has written a new book for Glorious Goodwood…

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TIPS 

(3m+ handicap/graded chases + 5-7f handicaps with trends/stats) 

None. 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total = +22.5 points) 

Let’s see if I can find a flat winner, to add to recent jumping hauls…

2.40 Chepstow

Molten Lava – 1 point win – 10/1 (betway) 8/1 – UP*

*weak in the market and can see why given how he ran the first half of this race- never looked happy, pulled LMs arms out for most of the way, unsurprisingly faded tamely. Line through that run. Hopefully we get more of a run from the one below…

Paul Cole’s form stood out here – indeed his last 12 runners… 1,8,1,2,1,5,3,2,1,2,3,5. They are going well, and he is one of two trainers in here with the ‘geegeez’ green ‘in form’ ’14’ indicator (Millman the other). Looking at the horses profile to race conditions, he also stands out (on the Instant Expert Tab) with clear winning form on the going, in the class, over the distance, and in the field size. A quick flick over to HorseRaceBase to use the ‘profile’ tool, and I can see that the horse is still unexposed. 2/7, 4 places on the flat. This time last year he won two Class 5 races and drops in class from last run. Following those two wins he ran on the all-weather for four runs – he is now 0/9, 0 places in that sphere. On his first start of this season he ran on soft. There is no indication that he likes a soft surface. Next time he ran on at Bath in first time blinkers, coming a close enough second. He ran well at Newmarket over 10f but lacked a change of gears late on and it may be that he just doesn’t stay that trip as well as 8-8.5. On his last run he was back on soft, and I think a line can be put through that. He will be sharp here now and has won after 44 days before, so the break does not concern me. There are enough pace pushers in here, and with Morris on, we won’t be found wanting in the saddle. This stiffer track may help over this track, as will the long straight – plenty of time to wind him up. If the stable form can rub off on him it is possible he will be better than this mark at some point. The trainer is also 1/5, 3 places in handicaps here in last 730 days. 8/1 felt a tad too big to me. 

3.15 Chepstow

The Reel Way – 1 point win – 7/1 (Boyle/WH/BetfS/betbright) 13/2 (general) *

*the second one to be weak-ish in the market and run no sort of race at all. Never really travelled, never really in it. A head-scratcher. Albeit, nothing very a total surprise at this level of racing. Poor day at the office. 

Chammings is 7/22, 9 places with all runners at the track since 2009, +46 points, AE 1.9. He is 3/10,4 places with all handicap runners in last 730 days and 1/3, 2 places with this jockey on his handicappers. The jockey booking also caught the eye – a handy 7lbs off and that could make all the difference in the finish here. The trainer is also in some OK form, 1/8, 4 places in the last 14 days. SO, stats wise this looks an interesting horse. The horse… He is 0/7, 2 places on the flat, and is still a maiden – I wouldn’t want to take a short price about a type like this but he has ran well a few times, including on his seasonal debut LTO. If he can build on that off effectively 8lb lower he should be in the mix here. He has ran well over the CD, inc on his final start last season and it could be that this year, as a 5 year old, he can take another step forward. He races prominently enough usually I think and there is pace on his side. This price looked decent enough given the possible step forward/progression, along with the trainer form here and the jockey booking – who has also won at the track. 

NOTE: Aqua Ardens – (7.50 Epsom) he goes here, the possible ‘profile horse’ who looked interesting when dropping into C4, which he has done the last twice without doing too much. This may be third time lucky here but 7/2 – 4/1 felt short enough for me personally, given his current form. A tad more promise last time maybe and the jockey is back on (as for last run) who has done the winning on him. I am unsure whether this smaller field will help but he ticks plenty of boxes and will go in at some point. Given his form I would want 7s /8s I think, but that is just me. Cue bolting up, but I am not ‘tipping’ him in this section today. 

That is all for this section for today. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Other 

Meehan Maidens (still yet to fire and I’m wondering if they will) 

7.35 Donc – Darwasi (any odds) UP

Pam Sly Females (any odds)

2.50 Leic – Ghinia NR

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

4.05 Ham – Robinnielly (any odds) WON 2/1 

5.55 Chep – Petrify (14/1<) WON 10/3

8.20 Epsom- Rosy Morning (any odds) UP

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

A welcome winner for this test section yesterday as Best Trip read the script and made all. We move on…

4.50 Chepstow

Go Charlie – 11/1 – 1 point EW- (bet365/BV/Lad) 10/1 (general) UP

Backing a horse who is 0/21,3 places on the flat may be a step too far, we shall see. But, this one ran in the race at Bath I ‘tipped’ in (Catalinais Diamond) and, having started slowly (again), he ran into trouble and finished strongly enough. He is in form and running well, which, I am discovering, means plenty in these races- obvious I suppose, but there we go! (cue and out of form 0000 horse coming from the clouds here!) This one is in the right place in the HRB ratings, in the top 6 on both measures. This slightly stiffer track may help as well- esp if blowing the start again. There is plenty of pace on paper in this and it could set up for a closer. IF he could get away on terms, that would obviously improve his chance considerably. Let’s see if he can build on that run and can hopefully place at worst. I think this is the race to give him a go here and we shall see how he goes. The winner that day re-opposes here but when counting claims has gone up 13lb from last run I think, and C6 handicaps are not the level where you expect too many to follow up. Unexposed, and in form, he could go in again, but is 4s. 

That is all for this section…

FENDALE...a previous ‘tip’ runs in the 8.10 Doncaster over 7f. I am unsure if they are just running out of ideas. He was either taken off his feet LTO or didn’t like the track I think. But that is a stiff 6f so we shall see. 7f may be what he wants now and I will watch with interest to see how he goes. There is some ability there, and he will show it at some point. 

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POST COMPLETE

Good Luck with any bets you place today.