Members Report: 10/07/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS

None. 3 chase cards and not one 3m+ handicap chase to get stuck into. There are a couple around that trip but one is a novice handicap and the other is class5, two types I try and avoid. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jump Handicappers

4.30 Strat – Walden Prince (14/1<) UP 14/1

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total= +12 points) 

4.10 Perth – Wadswick Court – 9/2 (WH/Coral) Fell*

*A novicey error put paid to his chance here- he was in a good position before being badly hampered in the home straight from a faller, and was creeping back into contention when getting one wrong. Annoying as with a clear round I suspect he may have given the winner something to think about. He jumped straight here, but fences are there to be jumped at speed and he failed on that test, this time. Interesting where he turns up next. 

This one ticks plenty of boxes and I think 9/2 looks fair enough in this race. The ground is interesting in this race -there is some cut, and some rain forecast – which could inconvenience a few in here. Bowen is the only trainer with the geegeez ‘trainer form’ indications for 14/30 days – indeed he is 4/16, 10 places in the last 14 days. My ‘way in’ was the trainer/jockey form here – 4/9,5 places when teaming up here. This one is unexposed over fences and this is the second start for the trainer after a decent debut LTO – which was after a 152 days – so, he could come on from that. He ran well there. He also looks to be on a workable mark and won’t mind what the weather does. He should track the pace- and this could be run at a decent clip. A slight niggle about going RH – jumped a bit left at times LTO, but given everything I think he is worth a go. The likes of Gurkha Brave have stamina to prove – the Bailey horse has stamina to prove (looked ok LTO) but also if this does go soft that is a question also. He likes to lead and him and the Gordon horse could cut each other’s throats. We shall see how this one goes. They team up with a shorter priced one earlier in the card who looks to have a chance but is 3s, and the capper may have him soon.

 

5.40 Stratford – Deserter – 7/1 (general) WON 7/1 SP*

*thats how you like to see them do it. Never much doubt to my eyes – well, clear early he was travelling well and put it to bed turning in. 

There are plenty of stats pointers for this one, in what looks a fairly weak race. I would be concerned were there no money coming, as it may indicate this one just isn’t very good but… Greatrex appears to have stepped up with handicap debutants over jumps in the last year – 4/15, 8 places with such runners. On that basis this one catches the eye. When teaming up with Bannister here they are 2/3, 2 places. Bannister rides this track well, 5/10,6 places all rides here. The trainer does well at the track – 19/55,29 places all runners. His having been running ok- 3/16 last 30 days, 0/5, 2 places last two weeks. This one did nothing on stable debut in a novice hurdle and could just be a really poor animal. Having had a quick look at the sire he may well improve for this decent ground. Anyway, at 7s, given all the above and the general lack of stand out quality in this race, I thought he was worth a go. 

 

***

No flat racing so that is it. 

***

That is all for today. Some updated ‘sprint notes’ will be posted soon. 

Enjoy your Sunday. 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. Wall to Wall jumps racing tomorrow hurrah,

    Its well documented in various sites but Kim Bailey sends 2 on a long journey up to perth,last journey brought home 2/2,That was september meeting,so would expect big efforts from Soneofpresenting 3.05 and Such A legend 4.10 5 and 9/2 at moment
    Having watched Dealing River 2.10 Southwell run a few times and fade out tamely after early promise,he either needed a few runs after a long break or he is just not come back at all,but its a Bailey/Skelton combo,so im on at 9/2
    Parsnip Pete runs in a very tricky race 4.30 Stratford,last time out was uttoxeter a black hole for George chasers,so im taking the 5/1 there
    Harry Bannister is 5/10 at Stratford,has 2 rides for Warren Geatrex Mighty Missile and desrter
    The yards horses usually get support when fancied

    1. Gerry,

      I am not saying that H Bannister will not have at least a good run on the Greatrex horses but I think I am right in saying he is retained by M W Easterby who has sent one horse to Stratford, Lightening Rod in the 4.30pm, ridden by Bannister. Just a quick glance at the runners it would appear it will not win, but Easterby is a very shrewd trainer.

  2. Josh thanks a lot 1 bet yestaday toffee apple at Hamilton what a great buy your trainer track profiles have been keep up the excellent work mate ,if your ever at worcester or cheltenham races let me know we’ll meet and have a drink cheers .i have mentioned before how you have changed my betting approach after 30 years of punting great stuff pal

    1. Thanks Tomo – comments like that lift the mood- esp when my form is indifferent! My attempt is to try and empower punters – mainly with stats I suppose – to find your own winners/help with your own approach – so good to hear how they are working for you – and great discipline on a Saturday with the one 1 bet!

      There will be a similar one for winter jumps, a detailed one and I may also do a ‘lite’ version also – I need to start work on that this month.
      Happy punting.

  3. I wouldnt normally be looking at Tom George youngsters but in the 5.05 he might have something special,i watchd its nhf race,nearly brought down,lost 5 lengths and momentum,rcovered and back in contention when squezed again,recoverd and won going away,JP got out the checkbook and brings Geraghty over for 2 rides but i think this one is the one he is really here for as a future prospect,No price but one to note

  4. That would be a concern alright Chris,rained a lot here in ireland yesterday so will arrive there at some stage

  5. My contact re Greatrex, who is a trainer not in the best of for, tells me GVS IPPORTENSA will win the 6.00 at Southwell. Not much of a price though.

  6. quite like PURPLE AND GOLD in the 4.30 stratford conditions should be fine trainer jockey in good form not won a class 2 but this is not a strong class 2 placed in this grade thought 8/1 decent price

  7. Good call on Deserter Josh
    Thanks for email on sprinter notes very interesting
    Waldswick Court looked def to be there or thereabouts

    1. yea I think so- that faller completely knocked his rhythm and jockey had to then take his time – at same time he then had to try and pick up speed I think to get back into it – and clearly he can improve jumping – considering he was upsides winner before hampered – you would think he would have been alongside him turning back in, lobbing along. That’s my reading of it anyway. Bowen in form and unseat shouldn’t know him too badly. Bowen will find a summer chase for him, maybe back LH.

    1. Thanks Tomo. Hopefully I can get a few more to grow the pot- that section of blog been up and down but since I changed approach in May hasn’t hit the red.

  8. Well done Josh

    Been a tough few weeks with Priestley banging in the winners and the flat sprint experiment a really tough challenge – Nice 7/1 Jumps winner sorts the weekend nicely – Well done again Josh

    1. Cheers Joe. Yep – I am not an ‘active punter’ as some say – the up and down period I have had over last couple months most would have in a few days of activity, but that’s how I play it. No 3m+ chase to get into on a day to day basis like the winter months. The sprint experiment is a tough challenge – and I hope you haven’t been putting too much of your hard earned on them!! I haven’t, the odd £5 / £10 here and there. If I can get the Stats/Angles section rolling – and if that could bring in +10 points a month, think I would be happy enough.
      I will get there with the sprints, and it will be bloody good fun when I do! Gary- well he is in a different league (not, I don’t think, in 3m+ handicap chases, by his own admission!) and something to aspire to – but, with the tools I have, and my dedication, there is no excuse not to get there at some point – but it takes time and experience.

  9. Well done Josh, nice to have jump only day. Way too much racing on Saturdays. I try to keep my bets to about 4/5 a day also backing the Priestley selections. His method is sound and over a given period will be profitible. You will find your niche on the flat. I think the last few weeks has been diificult for most punters I try to concentrate an your main bets and enjoy the comments made by astute punters on here. I try to be a bit more selective on my bets these days,if I back 5 losers stop and move on always another day.

    1. Thanks Roy. Yep agree about Saturday- madness. selectivity is the key. The main tips will pick up again and in terms of losses it hasn’t been that bad -11 points or so since end of Feb I think. Far from ideal but I have to stick to my game plan for now and there have’t been loads of bets in recent weeks.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.