A slight ‘ re-branding’ of the name of these daily posts. (which may change again but that will do for now- clearly a strategic thinker!!) Nothing too significant but when I ‘re-launch’ the site (hopefully 1st August, but def in August at some point) there will be a ‘members only area’, and members only posts. So, that should avoid any confusion moving forwards.
What’s coming up?
I need to do a review of June this week, with updated results. I do need to have a look at the micro systems, a half yearly review. That may be painful in places. Glorious Goodwood is coming up at the end of the month and I will have some trainer notes for that. There is also the Galway Festival at around the same time and I will see if there is anything worthwhile following on that front. I want to find some more profile horses (I have found a few already) and continue my education in the Sprinting world. That’s on top of all the usual stuff- stats/angles of interest, and any tipping races. Yet to look ahead to next weekend for big race trends etc. As well as working on the new blog layout etc. I will also record another video at some point – an over the shoulder preview I think – maybe a look at one meeting using geegeez/HRB that you can watch with notepads the evening before, to use as a pointer to any possible bets. So, enough to keep me busy.
None. You know the score by now. For now tipping races are 3m+ handicap chases and C2 5-7f handicaps with trends/stats etc.
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
2.30 – Haidees Reflection -UP
4.30 – Tiger Jim – UP
5.00 – Heros Story – UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total = +18 points – to 1 point win bets)
I have a page full of stats ways in but on closer inspection none really enthuse me, but there is a non-statty pick that looks interesting at Ayr…
4.30 Ayr- Moonlightnavigator – 6/1 (Bet365/BF/BV/Betway) 2nd *
*Missed break a bit and taken back/held up – strange/poor ride given stamina and usually races prominently. Would have liked to see him at least try to get closer earlier but maybe didn’t have the pace. Closing at the line but winner got first run and could never quite get there. Also went for run up rail early before switching him wide. Close, but not close enough
This one stands out on the geegeez Instant Expert report – with ability/form in all conditions, namely going, class, track, distance,field size. He is also now 8lbs below his last winning mark and looks ready to strike again at some point. Last year he was a class2 winner off 85 and he runs off 77 here. It is also evident that he needs cut. His best form has come on soft and good to soft and he gets a mixture of that here – in a race where a few have that to prove. He ran ok LTO – well to the extent where you could say he was in some sort of form. He also ran well in a big field race at Doncaster, the last time he got some cut a few runs ago. Indeed that run was 5 starts ago off OR84- so the handicapper is helping – after a few iffy runs on good to firm. The trainer is in ok form – only that. But, there are no trainers in this trace with the ‘geegeez green’ symbols. HRB shows me that Quinn does ok here with all runners in last 730 days – 7/39, 16 places. He has only teamed up with this jockey 10 times in handicaps, only one place. But, he rode the horse LTO and will know him a bit better. The final part of the jigsaw is pace/race set up. Geegeez have some new toys – which non geegeez users will get to see in my next video – but for each track/distance you can now see, with stats since 2009, where winners have come from. 7f at Ayr – well the place to be has been leading or prominent. This one stays further, and races prominently. In a race with no out and out front runners, he could well go to the front and make all -which he has done over 8f before. Hopefully they put his extra stamina to good use. This one could turn into a test up this long home straight so he should have enough time to get going. It may be that something else has a better turn of gears late on, but at 6s, in context of this race, I thought that was just about fair. Tiger Jim and Gold Flash are usually held up – and if they are again today, in general, the stats suggest it is hard to come from behind. In a race where those near the front should be able to go their own pace- and kick, they may be caught out.
That is all for this section today.
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
None today. I had a quick look at the 3.30 Ayr but it didn’t entice me. If this was a C6 I would have gone for the Goldie horse I suspect, but he has never won at this level of C5, albeit from very few goes. Speed rating is good, he is in form and gets more weight off back. Suspect he will try and make all here. There are a few younger legs in here and the market looks tight, bar also a short priced Fahey horse who could be anything and the market suggests will be fit. A watching brief.
FOXTROT KNIGHT…who ran well at Windsor having to come wide, as per the notes below. He runs at Chelmsford today in the 3.45, around 9/2. Given his wide draw I think that is short enough. There is pace on the inside and I suspect it may be hard to get a position. His race could be decided in the first furlong. Clearly in form, I am interested to see how he goes for his in-form trainer. Not impossible from draw but ove this trip, with this no. of runners, stalls 11+12 are 0/9, 1 place.
If you missed yesterday’s email…
That is all for today. Have a great day. It is currently teeming down in Liverpool and looks like it will be for a while!