Free Daily Post: 11/07/16 (COMPLETE)

A slight ‘ re-branding’ of the name of these daily posts. (which may change again but that will do for now- clearly a strategic thinker!!) Nothing too significant but when I ‘re-launch’ the site (hopefully 1st August, but def in August at some point) there will be a ‘members only area’, and members only posts. So, that should avoid any confusion moving forwards. 

 

What’s coming up?

I need to do a review of June this week, with updated results. I do need to have a look at the micro systems, a half yearly review. That may be painful in places. Glorious Goodwood is coming up at the end of the month and I will have some trainer notes for that. There is also the Galway Festival at around the same time and I will see if there is anything worthwhile following on that front. I want to find some more profile horses (I have found a few already) and continue my education in the Sprinting world. That’s on top of all the usual stuff- stats/angles of interest, and any tipping races. Yet to look ahead to next weekend for big race trends etc. As well as working on the new blog layout etc. I will also record another video at some point – an over the shoulder preview I think – maybe a look at one meeting using geegeez/HRB that you can watch with notepads the evening before, to use as a pointer to any possible bets. So, enough to keep me busy. 

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TIPS 

None. You know the score by now. For now tipping races are 3m+ handicap chases and C2 5-7f handicaps with trends/stats etc. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

None. 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS

Ayr (16/1<) 

2.30 – Haidees Reflection -UP

4.30 – Tiger Jim – UP

5.00 – Heros Story – UP

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total = +18 points – to 1 point win bets) 

I have a page full of stats ways in but on closer inspection none really enthuse me, but there is a non-statty pick that looks interesting at Ayr…

4.30 Ayr- Moonlightnavigator – 6/1 (Bet365/BF/BV/Betway) 2nd *

*Missed break a bit and taken back/held up – strange/poor ride given stamina and usually races prominently. Would have liked to see him at least try to get closer earlier but maybe didn’t have the pace. Closing at the line but winner got first run and could never quite get there. Also went for run up rail early before switching him wide. Close, but not close enough

 

This one stands out on the geegeez Instant Expert report – with ability/form in all conditions, namely going, class, track, distance,field size. He is also now 8lbs below his last winning mark and looks ready to strike again at some point. Last year he was a class2 winner off 85 and he runs off 77 here. It is also evident that he needs cut. His best form has come on soft and good to soft and he gets a mixture of that here – in a race where a few have that to prove. He ran ok LTO – well to the extent where you could say he was in some sort of form. He also ran well in a big field race at Doncaster, the last time he got some cut a few runs ago. Indeed that run was 5 starts ago off OR84- so the handicapper is helping – after a few iffy runs on good to firm. The trainer is in ok form – only that. But, there are no trainers in this trace with the ‘geegeez green’ symbols. HRB shows me that Quinn does ok here with all runners in last 730 days – 7/39, 16 places. He has only teamed up with this jockey 10 times in handicaps, only one place. But, he rode the horse LTO and will know him a bit better. The final part of the jigsaw is pace/race set up. Geegeez have some new toys – which non geegeez users will get to see in my next video – but for each track/distance you can now see, with stats since 2009, where winners have come from. 7f at Ayr – well the place to be has been leading or prominent. This one stays further, and races prominently. In a race with no out and out front runners, he could well go to the front and make all -which he has done over 8f before. Hopefully they put his extra stamina to good use. This one could turn into a test up this long home straight so he should have enough time to get going. It may be that something else has a better turn of gears late on, but at 6s, in context of this race, I thought that was just about fair. Tiger Jim and Gold Flash are usually held up – and if they are again today, in general, the stats suggest it is hard to come from behind. In a race where those near the front should be able to go their own pace- and kick, they may be caught out. 

That is all for this section today. 

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

None today. I had a quick look at the 3.30 Ayr but it didn’t entice me. If this was a C6 I would have gone for the Goldie horse I suspect, but he has never won at this level of C5, albeit from very few goes. Speed rating is good, he is in form and gets more weight off back. Suspect he will try and make all here. There are a few younger legs in here and the market looks tight, bar also a short priced Fahey horse who could be anything and the market suggests will be fit. A watching brief. 

FOXTROT KNIGHT…who ran well at Windsor having to come wide, as per the notes below. He runs at Chelmsford today in the 3.45, around 9/2. Given his wide draw I think that is short enough. There is pace on the inside and I suspect it may be hard to get a position. His race could be decided in the first furlong. Clearly in form, I am interested to see how he goes for his in-form trainer. Not impossible from draw but ove this trip, with this no. of runners, stalls 11+12 are 0/9, 1 place. 

If you missed yesterday’s email…

UPDATED SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE NOTES: CLICK HERE>>>

 

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That is all for today. Have a great day. It is currently teeming down in Liverpool and looks like it will be for a while! 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

    1. Nope. I wound’t do that, goes against the grain of what this blog is about. There will be added benefits to being a member but 75% of what goes on the blog at moment won’t be changing, certainly not in sense of daily posts.

      New blog etc will just allow me to lock off certain posts for members – so, for donations club members at moment -I email out links to reports etc- will be easier to put them in posts in members area, as well as email them. Also be a forum in that bit, and I may siphon off various bits, such as trends/stats and other bits and pieces in time.

      And new function will allow me to introduce a ‘day pass/weekend pass’ function, which I am still considering. But, for the odd weekend, or big meeting, I could charge etc, say £3 for access on any given weekend posts, for example.

      But, that is just thinking at the moment. There won’t be too much change to what you see at moment, and certainly not monday-friday there are no long term changes planned.

      Josh

    1. Well I have a ‘donations club’ and there are a few in that chipping in £12 per month, for a few perks. But I have eased off all that given I don’t like asking for money when form is indifferent! (and many, who have left, joined after my profit spurt in Jan/Feb) So, I am waiting until the re vamped blog comes online – members area will have a forum, 100% access to all future blog posts,exclusive big race meeting stats,50% discount on the two main stats guides (TTP flat + jumps), and get all other reports for free that I otherwise may charge for – and I may do something in terms of an early email alert on tips,and keep big race trends to members only, they also get my monthly research pieces that I write for Betting Insiders Club.
      I don’t know if there will be an appetite for that or not – but will be £10-£12 per month, I may just make it £10 for now and see how we go. If you like your stats etc I think it will be good value for that content.

      Anyway, it will be clear when I ‘re-launch’ in early August.

  1. Who Cares if Josh Charges for Blog or not What Started off as a place of interest as now degenerated as a place for adverts to Twopenny Happeny Tipping Companies. Trainers Quotes for one Example.
    Note Josh started putting out Begging Bowl after a Good Run of Profit. Notably 3 Winners at I Think 25/1. 33/1. 25/1. Very much inflating profits. The Micros. Bits and pieces to Note every Major Meeting with Something like 20 + Horses mentioned is Ridiculous for the ordinary betting Man or Women and the Trumpeting up of a Couple of Winners with a big Hooray .Somewhat . Words fail me.
    If it were a Fiver a Week Fine perhaps. But prediction People leaving in droves. Back to basic Premise Might be a Good Idea. Used to read every day.Josh Havnt tuned in . Just too long Winded about selections Even More so when go down the Drain. No Malice intended. Best of luck with new offering.

    1. Hi Richard, thanks for comment.

      I would hope if you read the exchanges above that it is clear I am not ‘charging for the blog’ – that isn’t something I wish to do. The majority of it, as it is now, will remain free at the point of use. That is important.

      As for the rest – everything else – well my approach, the content etc is quite clear, including results etc etc. You either like it (you don’t) or you do, you read it, enjoy it, find it interesting – or you don’t. Fine, either way.

      The begging bowl- I have no problem in asking for contributions if in a 4 month period – Nov-Feb I have made people £600 betting £5 per point- likewise I am uncomfortable asking for contributions when I am not performing as I would like – March to present – which tipping wise is ‘only’ around -12 points, but still poor considering the time etc.

      The big meeting stats etc – they are there for users to engage with and use how they wish – again, that isn’t for everyone – but some like that menu of stats, to dive in and use how they please. Sometimes work, sometimes don’t. It will be clear what the benefits of ‘the members club’ will be- again you have the choice whether it is something you would like, or not.

      The point is – you have been able to decide how you engage – because everything is quite clear. The basic premise has not, and will not, be changing. And nor will my approach to content.

      Josh

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