Members Report: 09/07/16 (Late update)

 

TIPS 

5.10 Newmarket

Flash Fire – 1 point win – 14/1 UP

Emell – 1 point win – 22/1 * UP 

*nothing from Emell which was disappointing, never really in it. Flash Fire ran ok, and looked like he may play a part, before fading out of places late on. Winner did it well – there were stamina questions, rather than concerns i suppose, which at single figure odds was enough to put me off – ran well over 7.5 Chester to suggest may be ok, but had it to prove in race like this on this kind of track. 

I used 5 stats to point the way to a shortlist: Ran within last 45 days, 2-6 runs this season, Won over at least 7f (knocks out a few and with lack of scorching pace may be a year this one is broken), No Run in G1 in career, had placed in a handicap

I think that left: Buckstay UP / Mutawathea 3rd / Majestic Moon UP / Accession UP/ both selections…

Flash Fire – he just ticks plenty of boxes and if he repeats the run of his win two starts ago he must surely go close here. We could put a line through that last run based on the going I think. He also ticks plenty of boxes for my newmarket notes for horses who ran at Royal Ascot LTO, as does Emell. These angles pointed to Appleby’s 14/1 handicap winner on Friday, who was well backed. Hopefully the same here! The trainer is in form so gets a tick there. He is a prominent racer usually which is somewhat of a must, most of the time, at this track- as we have seen repeatedly this week. He should relish the ground and he is unexposed, this mark may not be beyond him and on his 14th career start there could me more to come. Given his position on the stats shortlist, and all of the above, i had to have a go. He also beat 8 of these in here at Ascot and has beaten a few other as well when getting his conditions. 14s looked worth a go. 

Emell- a bit more speculative and this one doesn’t win very often but he ran well two starts ago and while I think he may be a bit high in the handicap, I can’t say for sure he cant win from this mark – he hasn’t had many goes in handicaps. Indeed he is 1/7, 4 places in 7f handicaps. Hannon Snr won this race so maybe it is time for Hannon Junior to have a go! Bar his prominent on the stats shortlist, it was his watching his last run that caught the eye. He doesn’t really stay 8f for starters for me, and not in that ground. The jockey was the last one to move – he sat motionless for some time and kept finding traffic, eventually eased off. He raced more prominently over 7f two starts ago and I hope they send him forward here – in a race lacking any out and out front runners – this race is here for the taking if a jockey grabs it by being up there. At 22s I couldn’t quite resist. He also qualifies on a RA LTO angle in my notes. He looks of some interest. Both his last runs suggested that he may be coming to himself. He is tricky, and maybe he won’t do anything, but plenty there for me to get involved at the prices. 

PACE- well there doesn’t seem to be loads on paper but there are a few who race up there and the odd one who has led. Both of these – definitely the former- should be right up there from the start and I can’t see and excuse. Emell could get stranded on far side as from what pace there is the race may develop away from the wings. But, at the prices, I don’t want to over-think that too much. 

Of the rest – well I could be here all evening but I have an appointment with the pub at 9.30 so I won’t go on. Buskstay is just too short for a hold up horse for me. Clearly he can go well but will need plenty to go right. I don’t want to be taking single odds in this. Glory Awaits is the other that catches the eye and I don’t know what to make of him- a saver maybe and I am conscious one Mr Priestley has tipped him. He hasn’t had many goes in handicaps, falls down on the G1 stat – but that may be one of those odd stats, we shall see. based on that run a couple of starts back it may be he needs more help from the capper, I’m not sure. He also qualifies on same RA stat as Emell, so may be worth a saver. He clearly has ability and has been highly tried in the past. Mutawathea is interesting but I can’t see why he should finish ahead of Flash Fire here, based on that run two starts ago. He had a claim that day an is giving him a few pounds, even with his increase. He may not be far away mind. I was struggling to make a case for too much else. Majestic Moon may give it a good go over a CD he likes – conditions fine and he will be up there.  A place would not shock but he is 6lb above his last win still, looks unfancied, and hasn’t been in form. I think something may have more in hand. Accession – well he looks a bit out of form and also unfancied. He is now 0/7, 1 place C2 20k+ and last two runs have been poor. But, he is on the trends shortlist.

Right, that will be it for tips on Saturday. Hopefully one or both of these can land the prize. I have refrained from 1pt EW, as I don’t want to bet 4 points given current indifferent form. Knowing my luck they will come 2nd and 3rd and I will bang my head on the table. How you play them, if at all, is obviously up to you! 

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

None. 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

3.00 York: Fermament (9/1<) NR 

3.25 Newm: Whitman (12/1<…Johnston again!) UP

3.35 Chest: Right Touch (12/1<) WON 9/1 (8/1 after R4) 7/1 SP

4.15 York: Birdman DNQ / Mijhaar DNQ / Tawdeea UP(9/1<) 

5.10 Newm: Farlow DNQ / Growl 4th / Heaven’s Guest 3rd (16/1<) 

8.15 Ham: Toffee Apple (any odds) WON 3/1>7/4

8.45 Ham: Lively Fella (any) NR 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None today. To be honest my evening out in Liverpool may have gone on for longer than planned and I have rather ran out of time! I will just stick with the Bunbury as the main action of the day. 

AQUA ARDENS – I have belatedly noticed that this possible profile horse is running in the 6.05 – I wont include him in results whatever he does here given the time of posting- he was tentative in the sense looked of interest when dropping into C4. He runs at C4 again here but is out of form and has drifted, up against some younger unexposed ones. He was poor over his favoured CD LTO which is a bit off-putting. He is now well handicapped and will go in again at some point at this level. But, this looks a tough task. It isn’t impossible that he could out-run these odds- and has won at a big price in the past, but does have some questions to answer at the moment. You would think one of the top 3 is winning this but you never know. 

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TEST ZONE 

As above. 

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Post complete

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. Morning Josh,

    Many thanks for your hard work as usual. Going to stick with Muthewathea personally given whilst we lost Ed Gretrex’s claim Havlin has a solid record for him as well as the trainer and I think he will reverse the form. The one I found very interesting which doesn’t fit the trends is Glorious Empire. Like you pointed out Ryan Moore would probably have a choice of a number of these and has a very good record in this race yet he has picked a horse trained by Ed Walker who has been off the track for two years. It’s the first time he is riding for Walker in about a year but has a pretty good record of 2/5, 4 places for him. The horse 2/2 at the track and whilst he hasn’t ever raced on fast ground i think based on breeding it will be ok. Couldn’t resist a saver.

    1. Morning Nick… yep can’t disagree with those two – I am struggling to see, if they run their races, why the form would be reversed given FF still progressive- but in these races it is a game of fine margins and if they both run like they did two starts ago there wont be too much between them. Any horse more is on has to be respected given his record but that one has been off the track an awfully long time – surely he will need the run and/or be too fresh keen – but then you do wonder why they are returning him in this Looks competitive as usual. Fingers crossed on of our pins lands on something! GL

      1. Since posting that I found out he was in Hong Kong last year so it’s not quite as big a gap and he did win a 50k race there on Good ground on seasonal re-appearance so that gives me a little more confidence.

        1. Yep saw that – did think was longer but still 427 days. We shall see. Jockey booking should give you some confidence.

  2. FLASH FIRE / GODOLPHIN by Shamardal.

    Only Buick missing or it would be a cert in these type of races this season.

    1. yep – should have mentioned that connections etc were obviously some influence. These types of races appear to be targeted more this season. Provided ground was the reason for poor run LTO, he should go well.

  3. I am still well out of form and so you may wish to avoid these selections?

    2.45 Ascot Royal Birth; 4.25 Ascot Sennockian Star; 9.15 Hamilton Tectonic.

    Good luck today.

  4. 4.45 Chester Save the Bees loves this time of year even drawn 9 I can still seem him leading and be very hard to pass

    1. Ah good stuff – wasn’t sure if would still honour that when went down to 16 runners. I backed him win only, ran well enough and at least looked like may win at one stage

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