Members Report: 02/07/16 (COMPLETE)

How bloody annoying. You wait all day, rather excited, for a horse to run. He is well enough backed into joint fav and then it becomes clear after half a mile that it’s game over. Anyway, that’s racing and while it is hard to remain upbeat when a horse doesn’t run their race, you must try. I won’t go looking for any excuses. He just didn’t run his race and I have no idea why. Maybe he has more of an attitude problem than I gave him credit for. Odd. 

 

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TIPS

No official tips today. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

None 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

4.35 Hayd: Dandyleekie (12/1<) WON 8/1>7/2 (7.2/1 after R4)

7.05 Carl: Lady Wooton (15/2<) UP

8.05 Carl: Archies Advice (15/2<) 2nd 

8.35 Carl: Forever A Lady (15/2<) DNQ (2nd 25/1,neck)

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(+3 points) 

Something new…’TEST’: When you read ‘test’ that indicates my attempts to dabble in sprint handicaps (5-6f) of all grades,(from scratch,those without trends etc to help) trying to hunt out some decent priced winners and long term profit. I do not have any long term record in these races and I really do need to develop some more strings to my bow when it comes to the flat. So, inspired by Gary, I will have a go, and hopefully in time develop some skills in this area where they can become ‘tips’. Obviously you can do as you wish with this information but a ‘test’ horse won’t be counted in any official results. In part it will be a process of learning, discovery, mistakes and the odd bit of success hopefully. And we may as well go on that journey together. This blog is here for a good for years to come so hopefully in time I can get it right! Hopefully in the remaining 4 months of the season we will make some progress. I will record results to 1 point EW. So…

TEST: 3.35 Beverley – Master Bond – 18/1 – 16/1 – 1 pt EW

This one catches the eye for a couple of reasons- the reapplied visor and the change of jockey- two things different from recent runs. The jockey is 1/2,2 places on the horse in handicaps and hasn’t ridden him in 13 races. The visor returns having been tried once – but that was on the AW and his record on that surface is now 0/8,0 places. O’Meara had a winner yesterday at the track when applying the visor and maybe indicated that the yard could hit some form again. They have been Micky Hammond/Jim Goldie ‘esc in their unpredictability this season- getting used to the new yard maybe. His stats here are strong, and in 3yo+ handicaps. The changing of the ground is interesting as well. While he has yet to win on rain sodden turf he has gone very close a couple of times, including on heavy. He is clearly tricky but is handicapped to go in again at some point, now 7lb below his last win. He does need the visor to work but at the prices, having started with the biggest priced horse first, this one looked interesting enough. He has the wide draw but that didn’t stop a winner here yesterday. Oh and I should add that he is a course and distance winner, that caught the eye also. 

Very strange run. Bounced out, looked to be travelling well and then he just stopped. Nothing there and tailed off in a matter of strides. Headgear clearly didn’t work and/or something was up. At least you can only go one way from a run like that! 🙂

Gary added some write-ups on his site for some of today’s runners which make for informative reading. He had the second in this race at a decent price- I was slightly putt off by his 0/9,0 places on good to soft/soft once the rain arrived. Hoof It also went in on heavy having been tipped a couple of times recently I think. Also thought his last run a bit too underwhelming. Seems to be how it is going at the moment. I wasn’t sure he would relish heavy (0/13,3 places good to soft-heavy) but maybe his class has got him through and he had placed form on soft. 

***

That is all for today.

Good luck with your bets.

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. I know you might think l’m a bit of an arse but is there any reason why tectonic was not tipped up in the main trainer stats running in the 7-35 Carlisle, how do you rate gold beaus
    chances in the 6-05 ?

    1. Hi Courtney, if its the same system I have saved in my HRB I believe Techtonic is a non qualifier on the race age restriction and is border line on price, although now around 8’s.

    2. Never! he isn’t a main system bet as it is a 4yo+ handicap – I forget the stats but clearly when researching his long term record in those races for older horses here wasn’t good enough for me to focus on. He does have winners here outside of that system though so don’t let that put you off. All handicappers that he runs here going off 8/1+ before the season started were 1/48,12 places, generally hard to find, but not impossible. Phillip makes a decent case for him below. GL if playing.

  2. With so much good racing on tomorrow you could be forgiven for leaving Carlisle alone but this is a decent handicap and TECTONIC really jumps out as a cracking bet. His form over C&D at Carlisle reads 22138221153236. Crunching the numbers that reads 3 wins and 8 places from 14 starts, which is an incredible place strike rate. He runs off a mark of 63 in a Class 5 – all three of his wins over C&D have been in this class of race, off marks of 64, 65 and 66. Philip Makin comes back into the saddle who is Keith Dalgleish’s main man. I really can’t see many reasons as to why he is as long as 14-1 and that is some cracking value on offer.

  3. interesting re Master Bond and good luck, I have had a few quid on Jack Luey at 16’s think he will love the ground, nice draw and just about on a mark he can win from..

    1. Yep agree about Jack Luey – had a good look at him and if he were 16s I suspect I would have included him also – but only 8s/10s by time I got around to looking- although that is down to R4s I suppose. Agree – should relish conditions and if he is going to bounce back it should be on this ground. In time I back myself to get it right in these races, but it will be a bumpy ride and I have some learning to do, and need something to keep my going until November/Dec/Jan/Feb come around again! 🙂 Good luck.

  4. 4.35 Haydock….PIAZON….Trainers runners in this race…1112 so it looks like J Ryan likes to win this race.
    2.00 Sandown…. WILLYTHECONQUEROR….plum draw 4 should be thereabouts.

    I hope everyone has had lots of winners….while I’ve been on holiday…No means of having a wager.
    Cold Turkey..Ugh!

  5. The Duke (of Firenze) goes again today and is well drawn. However he is usually better downhill rather than uphill and so would theoretically have his work cut out?

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