Members Report: 01/07/16 (COMPLETE)

July Trainers...I have failed to find any trainers to follow in handicaps this month. I have some loose rules – mainly an average of 5 winners per season over the last 3 seasons, an average of +10 points SP per season and their starter set of data to have a positive AE. There were a few who were close to satisfying those criteria but I couldn’t find a ‘way in’. Mark Johnston does well but fires too many bullets for my liking – averaging around 4 bets per day. 

So, nothing for July. 

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GARY PRIESTLEY ARTICLE HERE>>

 

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TIPS

4.50 Newton Abbot

Dusk Till Dawn – 1.5 points win – 5/1 (general) *

*well that was worth waiting all day for. That was over rather early, never traveled at all. Very strange. No excuse. He won the last day tracking pace for a time before taking it up, and traveled tracking pace at Towcester, so I wont say he sulked for not leading. For whatever reason he just didn’t want to race today. Frustrating. Didn’t see that coming, clearly.  Well done to the old boy, winning two runs after he was tipped on here. 9/2 a decent enough price in the end. On we go. 

This one is touching 11/2 in places as I write and a drift never makes one feel totally comfortable – but I suspect it may be due to money for the other two and it is still early in the day, albeit were he to go off bigger than this I would be slightly concerned. Having said that, when looking through this, I thought he should be favourite and I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him arond the 7/2 mark- making the 5s to me look a tad generous. 

Why? – Well two starts ago he won his first chase over course and distance on decent ground, which it looks like he needs. He won that fairly well to my eye and looked to have a bit in hand come the finish. He raced prominently for a while before making most for the rest of the race. His jumping was solid and he did everything asked of him. This is only his 4th chase start and there will be more to come. I am not 100% sure what happened LTO- maybe he returned too quickly after 6 day, maybe didn’t like the track or maybe didn’t like the ground – it was officially good I think, but having watched the video it looked a bit wet and I suspect there was a bit of cut in it. In any case, he didn’t run badly, responding to Scu up the straight and plugging on well enough for third. Maybe he just couldn’t pick up in the ground. 

The one niggle is possibly Pipe’s recent form – 1/21 last 14 days – but then having looked at his recent runners quite a few have gone off 10/1+ and there are enough placed horses/those running well for me not to be put off. I also thought maybe he just responded to the 1st time blinkers for his win – but having watched the Towcester race – he does respond and was trying his best, so I expect they will continue to work. 

PACE- well him and Strumble Head look to be the two who like to get on with it and his younger legs may prevail in that battle. Ideally he gets an easy enough lead, can get into a rhythm and can kick and get away on this firmer surface, turning for home. He should be in the right place to pounce. As you know in general I like prominent racers, even more so over fences, and even more so at a track like this. You need a lot to go right here as a hold up horse and I wouldn’t be sure that the selection, or Strumble Head, will come back to the field- which means those in behind will have to go faster, and jump at a faster pace- which can lead to errors. (if those up top get the fractions right) He should be in the prime spot, no excuses.

So, I am asking for a repeat of that run two starts ago. It wasn’t the strongest race but two have since come out and won, and he had Railway Storm beaten well enough. He could do no more than was asked of him and is entitled to still be improving.  If he does repeat that run, or improve on it, I don’t think he is a 5/1 shot, but we shall see! 

Of the rest…

This feels like it is between the top three. Strumble Head is just getting on and I wanted to go with the more unexposed profile, the one still open to improvement. He is running well enough and is well handicapped on old form. But, he is 11 and open to attack from younger legs, as happened the last day. He is 0/3,1 place at the track and his chase run here, albeit in C3, wasnt the best – that was some time ago though. He is also 0/3,0 places with this jockey on top. A repeat of that last run may be good enough – but I would like to think one of the other two may have too much. In any case, at 7/2, he wasn’t a bet given the above. 

Trafficker – well he would have a chance but given recent form, and a proven liking for CD and stamina assured, I went for the Pipe horse, given the lack of disparity in price. Were this one 8s or bigger I may have been tempted. BUT, his run LTO, when fancied, was laboured. (was after a break though,maybe he did need it) And he is usually a hold up horse. He can also be a scratchy jumper- but entitled to get better. If my reading of the race is correct his jumping should be put under pressure in the last 1/2 mile here – if he is held up, as he will need to close. Albeit these fences are not the stiffest. This is only his 7th chase start, and he does know how to win. The trainer is also in form. So, i can see why there is a line of blue on oddschecker as I write – and if there was a ‘saver horse’, this one is probably it. The headgear is back on but he didn’t respond to it the last time he wore it. Given he was a similar price to the selection, i was happy to go with the other. I won’t fall off my chair if he wins though. 

Of the rest…Boyfromnowhere has just been taken out as I write – so a R4 on its way- i wondered whether the ground was too lively for him – 0/4,1 p good or better in handicaps, his only handicap win on heavy. Free of Charge needs the headgear to work. There is ability somewhere – he won a hurdle- but hasn’t shown anything of note over fences for me. He is this price because of connections- which may be fair enough given who they are. But, he needs to step up. He is still unexposed over fences and is entitled to at some point but the top three have been there and done it, and two of those are also unexposed. All about the blinkers I think and he wasn’t a big enough price to tempt me. Hobbs only 1/19 with handicap chasers here in last 730 days as well. (Pipe 2/8,3 places) 

Tara Road is interesting – a new trip. There is latent ability there somewhere, and a touch of class, relatively speaking, but he doesn’t show it very often. He looks better when the mud is flying and has stamina to prove. 0/4,0 p 2m6f-3m all runs to date. It looks like they are just trying different things now and that last run was laboured. Something to prove, but not a shock winner. But not the profile I can find myself backing at a single figure price. The handicapper keeps relenting mind and at some point he will just dot up. 

I cant’t have the other four, for one reason or another. If the selection runs his race I can’t see why Railway Storm would finish ahead of him. Master R has ground questions, and form questions. Detank has stamina questions under rules but has been going ok in points and ran ok LTO back under rules- but this is stronger. The jockey also jumps ship. Fredo isn’t getting any younger and looks out of form. I can’t have him. 

So, this looks an interesting little contest. If the Pipe horse runs his race then he won’t be far away and he won’t run like a 5/1 shot for me. Time will tell…

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

Other

Meehan Maidens (any odds)

3.25 Sand: Glendun 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

None. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None today. 

 

 

 

 

About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

18 Comments

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  • Back today with a loser, sorry!

    For tomorrow, one at a price to stab at: 7.15 Bev World’s His Oyster, 25/1 in places.

    Also a horse I believe is still improving, Ice Slice, 8.30 Haydock, some 9/2 about.

    Martin Colwell 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi all great blog you have hear I love reading it.
    What an interesting article by Gary.
    I would like to know your comments about Only Orsenfoolsies in the 5.05 at Sandown.

    Aligeegee 1 year ago Reply


    • HI Aligeegee (that has made me smile, maybe the best name to date!)…

      Glad you like the blog.

      5.05 – well I never talk anyone out of backing a horse if they like them, that isn’t my role. I would say that on the flat he has stamina to prove and he isn’t in the best of form, based on that last run – a return to the level. Hammond is very cold now, such a hard trainer to catch – 2/62 in the last 30 days, 0/24 in the last 14 days. Every other horse in the race appears to be in form, and there are many fancied ones, including a few from powerful yards, and yards in form. This one has also had 76 days off – that doesnt sit well- a problem maybe.

      He looks like he is 33s for a reason – but having said that 33s always allows you to overlook plenty- On paper there also isnt much pace, so it could be falsely run, and anything can happen in that scenario. Albeit it is there for the taking, for a jockey to lead all the way- numbers 3,2,6,1 have all raced prominently in recent runs, without leading – one of them may try and dictate – no idea which one though – I would be tempted, given assured stamina, to say that the Williams/Buick horse could try.

      Not a race i will play in, good luck, and if you likes him, you have to have a ‘just in case something on’ at that price!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


    • My selection for that race would be The Graduate, However … Your horse is interesting because of the jockey booking.

      I read a very good article about Callum Shepherd who has a very good strike rate in longer distance races. The fact that this is his only ride of the day has got me more interested.

      Hope Josh does not mind me posting a link to the article, please delete my post Josh if our not happy.

      https://www.flatstats.co.uk/blog/knock-on-effect-stats-jockey-distance-bias

      Steve 1 year ago Reply


  • Ladweb, the profile horse gets his conditions tomorrow, doesnt he?

    in the 2.20 San

    Ali 1 year ago Reply


    • nope, sorry. Needs Cl4 or below

      Ali 1 year ago Reply


      • Apparently not! 🙂 Ahhh, racing. improving on his 0/9,2 places in C3+. He was well handicapped at least and had his ground. Maybe not a strong C3.

        Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Just been looking at Gary Priestley’s selection in the 8.45 at Beverley. Armelle.
    Last won a handicap in 2014 off 53. Still on 57. From 28 races has run only once at 5f.
    Drawn 14 of 17 at Beverley. Terrible draw.
    Would love to know how he arrives at this one.

    John Gorton 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi John,
      Clearly I am not speaking for Gary – but having had a look – my own reasoning would be that clearly the price is paramount – don’t know what he tipped it at – but he is doing something different, having only run at 5f once – that does catch the eye. Especially when that one 5f run was over CD where he blasted out (relatively) and led, was challenged, and led again into the final furlong, before fading. That was off OR64, and with the jockey claim he runs off OR50 here, a mark he can clearly compete form. Whatsmore, the trainer is 4/25,6 places in handicaps here in last 730 days, and is 3/9 in all handicaps with this jockey on, in last 730 days. The draw clearly isn’t idea but horses can win from him and as always, all in context of price. On Gary’s reading of race/horse he clearly thought it should be shorter. This is the first time this jockey has ridden him as well. given stats, and the claim, that counts as an eye-catching jockey booking I think, as does the drop back down to 5f – for one that can show speed.

      that is how I would read it. I have had a look at the race to see if I could bring myself to tip anything, but i couldn’t really! Did think the Wilson/Fanning horse looked interesting at prices but is a maiden, so left him. He could get a prominent position and if repeated run two starts ago would be in the mix. Booking of Fanning caught eye.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Hi Josh Excellent summation of my thinking I don’t think I could have said(wrote) it any better, my method is not an exact science you need to be adaptable and sometimes read things into form etc I had Armelle as a 10-1 shot even with the draw of 14 which isnt the negative people make out. If I remember correctly one my very recent winners Seamster who runs here was drawn 16 on the day I tipped him over this CD and he won comfortably. If you have a horse with early pace which Armelle does you can get a good position early which negates any negativity in the draw whilst giving you a bloody good price. I wouldn’t take 5-1 about that happening but 20-1 I’ll take a chance he hits the gates thats where the value comes into it!!
        GL
        Gary

        Gary Priestley 1 year ago Reply


  • Big spread DtD on the exchanges. I’ve chucked a tenner on at 5s at Ladbrokes (to benefit from BOG+ if it does drift) and had a tenner matched at 8.0 on Befair. 11/2 in a number of places now

    Paul 1 year ago Reply


  • I have speculative Captain Swift 18/1 ew Donc 14:00
    and Shouranour 19:15Beverley 11/1

    Faithful Mount 6/1 5,05 Sand

    Pab 1 year ago Reply


  • Started at dusk ,finished at dawn,not to worry.

    michael murphy 1 year ago Reply


    • Very well put, that has made me smile. Bemused. Clearly has blinkers for a reason but traveled well for last two runs. Jumped more out to right than he did here the last day also. Was also backed. Strange.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh, the booking of the jockey on the 8.45 Dixon horse is a massive plus…….. Won’t go into great deal but she’s got an incredible strike rate for /from this stable. A good percentage of her winner / placed horse have come from this stable I believe. Would like you to check that out if you don’t mind, please. I’m on because I spotted it early yesterday. 20s best I could get.

    Jarrod 1 year ago Reply


    • yep, have touched on her stats in my reply above I think – 3/9, 3 places. in flat handicaps for Dixon in last 730 days – which is all runs I think. Good Luck

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Oh and I think the horse you tipped up last time just won the 4.50 N.A. You,me and Gary are having the same trouble lately.

    Jarrod 1 year ago Reply


    • I tipped him two starts ago, think I left him at Ffos Las. I wouldn’t have tipped him at 3s / 7/2 this morning, that was short enough given questions. 9/2 was a nice SP though. Shame selection didn’t run his race as will never know.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


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