Members Report: 03/07/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS 

none. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

none

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

Ayr (16/1<) 

4.00 – Fray / Haidees Reflection 

4.35 – Nicholas T 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

‘TEST’: When you read ‘test’ that indicates my attempts to dabble in sprint handicaps (5-6f) of all grades,(from scratch,those without trends etc to help) trying to hunt out some decent priced winners and long term profit. I do not have any long term record in these races and I really do need to develop some more strings to my bow when it comes to the flat. So, inspired by Gary Priestley, I will have a go, and hopefully in time develop some skills in this area where they can become ‘tips’. Obviously you can do as you wish with this information but a ‘test’ horse won’t be counted in any official results. In part it will be a process of learning, discovery, mistakes and the odd bit of success hopefully. And we may as well go on that journey together. This blog is here for a good for years to come so hopefully in time I can get it right! Hopefully in the remaining 4 months of the season we will make some progress. I will record results to 1 point EW. I should add that I am not backing these with 1 point EW of my own money until I demonstrate some ability to make a profit…

Running total: -2 points…

 

TEST: 5.10 Ayr – Go Go Green 12/1 – 1 pt EW

Well you never know what you are going to get from a Jim Goldie horse but at the prices this one catches the eye. Mainly that is because in recent months, when dropping into C5, he has run rather well. This looks to be his level these days and it is that run 4 starts ago that catches the eye – pretty much in identical race conditions he just failed by a head. A repeat of that run should ensure he out-runs these odds, having ran in higher grades the last three races. That run was off effectively OR69 with the claim and while you have to go a long way back to find a win from this mark or higher, he should be competitive. It may be that he needs some more help in time but that run showed he retains some ability. He has yet to win at the track from 21 goes but has gone very close on a few occasions and clearly handles the track. The jockey booking is interesting also – more so in the sense that Tudhope is 3/3 on Blue Sonic and I would like to think he had the choice here, which could be some sort of indication. And of course, having Tudhope onside is never a bad thing. He handles the ground and that is something a few in here have that questions to answer. The likes of Vallarta and Inexes have done their winning on good to firm, as has Keenees Point. A few of these have yet to win at C5 level also, looking like C6 horses. As I said, a repeat of that run 4 starts ago, should ensure he out-runs these odds and should hopefully see him in the mix.

 

No other angles etc of note. That will be all for Sunday. 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. welcome back Josh

    5.00 Limerick: Kylecrue 16/1 seems too big a price for a horse running so well. It’s last chase run was a very taking effort from the front and eventually faded but was going over a trip too long for him. Went into my tracker with the notes “needs a slightly shorter trip”. He gets that today, so i will be backing each way

  2. I like your blue sonic in go go green race got some decent place form in class 5 well drawn and I think is weighted to finish in front of go go green had 3 runs last year before winning now had 3 runs this year LTO was a good run worth an ew aswell at 10/1

  3. I like Bushtiger today, 3.30 Ayr, would have been a Ruth Carr bet had it still been June. Stepping up in trip significantly today, caught my eye when running a couple of starts ago when running on at the end of a 1mile event and went into my tracker as he looked difficult to pull up, 1m2f today, am hoping that makes a big difference for this in form yard, been dropped a few pounds also helps …. 18/1

    1. Good shout James,i have had to have a nibble. Remember both his runs at Hamilton and he ran as if something was coming this season and that step up does catch the eye. Has looked a bit one paced so we shall see if this trip does the job and he can just gallop up the long straight. Worth a go at that price to find out. GL

      1. Either not very good, very slow, and/or needs about 2 miles. That was a poor race and he just plugged on really. Interesting what they try and do with him moving forward, one to just watch for now I think. Maybe he needs good to firm but jury still out on ground preference I think.

  4. My jumps bet for day is Cut The Corner 3.05 Market Rasen 5/1 best price,Some bets from the bonus guide at Naas,haven’t really followed for last few weeks but i think there were a few winners,3 trainers of note today

  5. Hi guys. I had an ew bet on Go Go Green this morning before reading Joshes blog and totally agree with everything said there. Although a 10 yo
    he still retains the ability to win this with so much in his favour. Another good bet today at Ayr is Henpecked in the 2.55. She loves the track, going and distance and although going the wrong way ratings wise there are enough doubts about the rest of the field to make her a stand out bet.

    1. I still have Henpecked as top of my ratings with this field……only doubt has only placed once in this class….never won, but a good bet.

    2. addendum…. lol. Go Go Green is top of my ratings too, 4pts. clear of In My Place and Master Mirasol…..Everything points to a stonking chance…except Goldies poor form and Tempus Fugit for GGG.

      1. Goldie is somewhat of an enigma in terms of form – unless mistaken I can’t really recall him going on hot-streaks as such. We have a decent price at least so we shall see! GL

  6. Cut the corner won nicely,these are 5* bets,trainer profitable at track with chasers,jockey profitable at track,combo profitable,trainer in form,jockey in form,makes for very confident betting proposition

    1. yep when looking at it can see why you went for him. He is a character but clearly appreciated headgear being removed as well it looked. Helped that fav stumbled but you make your own luck in this game! Newland certainly in a rich vein of form.

  7. Jim Goldie also has Centre Haafdh in the Go Go Green race and has Paul Mulrennan up on him. Proven winning form over this distance. I would not be shocked if this one was plotted up to win.

  8. You could stop a clock at the moment Josh – Mr Priestley must be scratching his head after 2 near misses

    1. Ah well that is why it is a test! Will be a long journey into the lower classes of sprint handicaps. I wouldn’t be betting your own money on them yet!

  9. Go Go Green and Blue Sonic both run Ayr tomorrow. Thought rider was a bit easy on Go Go Green today. Didnt seem to want to get placed.

  10. 30% strike rate last 5 seasons Steve according to racing post 5 yr stats 44/146,for an overall profit 6 pts at sp,now id say you could add maybe 30-40 onto that getting best early prices ,do tend to be well supported,todays winner was best priced 6 last night

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