Members Report: 30/06/16 (complete)

GARY PRIESTLEY ARTICLE HERE>>>

 

Today I will be writing my monthly article for the Betting Insiders Club – with a look at nurseries I think. I need to see if there are any July Trainers we want to keep onside and I want to have a good ‘stats look’ at C3/4 and 5/6 sprint handicaps, with the aim of being a bit more active in those races in the remaining 4 months of the flat season. 

Onto today…

 

TIPS

None  

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainers

3.00 Hayd – Twentysynthlancers (18/1<) UP

3.30 Hayd – Chaplin Bay (any odds) 2nd 6/1

 

Jumps Handicappers

Under Review:-

3.10 Perth – Ronaldinho (12/1<) 2nd 

4.40 Perth – Gold Chain (12/1<) * WON 11/4

*apologies as I appeared to miss posting Gold Chain as an ‘under review’ qualifier on Wednesday, who won at 9/1. If you were still backing the two ‘under review’ trainers (Sayer/Suzi Smith) you have permission to grumble. Sayer was 1/21,6 places… -15 SP before that winner, following on from 3/26, -16 points last year – hence being ‘under review’. Maybe some green shoots may be on their way, or a new approach needs to be found for her runners,if there is one. 

 

Other 

Pam Sly Females: 4.20 Yarm – Roxie Lot (any odds) UP 33/1>20/1

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

A reminder: These are the ‘main trainer’ systems from my Trainer Track Profile: Flat stats pack launched at the start of the season. These were researched this year and in essence this section is a live test. Albeit, all systems posted are always under review etc. What you do with them is up to you. There progress is tracked in the regular results updates. 

6.10 Epsom – Brandon Castle (any odds) 2nd 

7.30 Newb – Skeaping (6/1<) DNQ

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(+5 points) 

8.50 Epsom – Aqua Ardens – 16/1 – UP- a profile horse with a more tentative profile than most. Having racked up a hat-trick some time ago he had a few quiet runs in C2/3 races before dropping into C4 and winning at 14/1, off a mark of 84 (same as today). Having run in a few C2s/3s recently, he drops into C4 here. He is 3/3 at the track. 2/2 in CD handicaps. He is also versatile in regards to going. His last win also came off the back of some uninspiring runs. They are the positives. The negatives – well Baker could be in better form and in the last 730 days he is now only 3/39,10 places when Steve Drowne has ridden for him in handicaps. There are also plenty of in form 3 and 4 year olds in here. At 16s I will have a nibble to find out. It may be this is a false profile but C4 definitely looks to be his level. (3/10,5 places C4, 0/6,0 places C3 flat handicaps)

 

4.20 Yarmouth – Hes My Boy – 8/1 (BV/WH) UP – 8/1 seems a bit big for this one on paper. Firstly my TTP guide shows that Fanshawe, before this season started, was 4/10,4 places with his handicappers running in 3yo+ handicaps here, for +14 points SP, 64% above market expectations – albeit small sample of course. That was the ‘way in’. The trainer is also in form – green 14s and 30s in Geegeez racecard – 4/18 last 14 days, 8/32 last 30 days. So, that box is ticked. Then there is the horse. Well, he seems to be in very good form and it is the strength of his form that caught the eye. The win two starts ago has produced a few winners. Indeed the 2nd and 3rd have since come out and won, and the 5th has won 3 times since. The horse that just beat him the last day has also come out and won since. I am looking for a repeat of either of those runs I think as that will put him right in the mix. All of the horses wins have been when good to firm is in the description and according to the BHA website, updated in the early hours by the clerk, it is Good to Firm, good in places with a dry day expected. When accounting for claims he is only 2lbs above a win last year and this is only his 17th flat start so I won’t use the mark as an excuse. There are a few 3 year olds in here and he could bump into one with a bit up his sleeve – namely the fav who hasn’t been missed in the market after his last run which suggested this trip could be just what he wants. But, he needs to get his head in front and the selection has been there and done it. At 8s, I thought he looked interesting. 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

12 Comments

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  • Hi Josh

    On the plus side for Aqua Ardens he seems to have come out of a relatively hot race with 5 of the 8 from that race having placed since and Baker is 5/23, 7 places +21 at Epsom in the past 2 years with Drowne 1/4 so he gets my vote at a track where I think course form is more important than at other tracks.

    Nick Mazur 8 months ago Reply


    • HI Nick, yep, certainly more positives than negatives for me – that write up reads back as if I have splinters!! – I have had an EW dabble at 16s- price makes up for a few negs and he clearly likes the place.

      Josh Wright 8 months ago Reply


      • Baker and Drowne strike in the second race at Epsom so hopefully they will repeat the feet in a couple of hours

        Nick Mazur 8 months ago Reply


        • Bloody hope so haha- Fanshawe had a winner with an earlier runner in 3yo+ handicap – maybe one of those days, we shall see!

          Josh Wright 8 months ago Reply


  • Interesting stuff Josh

    Roger Hawkes 8 months ago Reply


    • Thanks Roger – in general there is always something of interest – just the profit can be a problem 🙂 (long terms tips are fine, but been a quiet last few months,and systems have been too up and down, a few green shoots and then nothing- some work to do)

      Josh Wright 8 months ago Reply


      • Hi josh. He’s my boy runs in 4.20 yarmouth. I have been using the stats to get a few winners. G M LYON fairy house lastnite. Kempton all weather also gave me w.knight winner. Just to mention a few.

        daniel 8 months ago Reply


        • Ah yes, so he does! Cheers. Super, glad you are finding a few, keep it up. My brain isn’t in tune with AW- didn’t even use my own bloody guide to look through that card haha. Glad you did!

          Josh Wright 8 months ago Reply


  • I’ve had 5 tips in the 8.50 (Gary Priestley put 2 up, Andrew Mount has Harlequin Striker)…think I’ll leave it alone

    Paul 8 months ago Reply


    • Ah, that is a conundrum. I would have something on the biggest priced ones maybe.

      Josh Wright 8 months ago Reply


      • Yeah, but Mounty (gg.co.uk) was very persuasive lol

        Paul 8 months ago Reply


  • I am back from Dubrovnik to the cloud and the rain. Sir Geoffrey, 5.55 Newbury, is expected to go well at 16/1, only 8 runners so watch out for a non runner which reduces each way options.

    Martin Colwell 8 months ago Reply


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