Saturday’s Members Report: 11/06/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS

3.45 Muss

Thesme – 1 point win – 10/1 2nd (ran well, no complaints there) 

Judicial – 1 point win – 12/1 Up 7/1 (possibly over before race,definitely over once gates opened,missed it)

Some stats to start with. I used a few as a guide namely:-

• Top 8 LTO
• Age 6 or younger
• Placed at least 1 of last 4 starts 
• 2-7 career wins
• Top 2 on at least one of last 5 starts 
• No run G1 or G2

You can see the trends/stats posts for why they stood out to me. But, given the numbers and fact this is only 10th renewal I think – well I only found stats for last 9- they are certainly a guide- as trends etc always are. 

That leaves a shortlist of: both selections, Hoofalong/Seethesun/Secretinthepark/Kimberella/Royal Birth

Thesme – we/I backed her LTO where she ran very well at York. She is fast, very fast. I am unsure if there was a track bias or not but the winner came from tracking the pace on the far side and it could be there was quicker ground there that day. The Ryan horse blew it a bit and came from Thesme’s side also, running a blinder, and he could end up being smart. I don’t know if there will be a track bias here or not so have gone with one either side – there is scorching pace on both sides. She has a decent pot in here and at one stage will look the winner. A repeat of that last run is going to put her right in the mix and it is solid form. She is going to be in the right place and there will be no excuses. The trainer could be in better form but the more fancied ones in recent weeks have run just fine, with a few places. It could be she is on the wrong side if it is quicker ground near-side, but I would simply be guessing really I think. A double figure price was fair. 

Judicial – well this one is too big at 12s based on that last run. At Thirsk he was able to run up with Red Barron and go too quick for Kimberella. He kept on well to win going away. He is lightly raced, on an upward curve, drawn around plenty of pace and the trainer is in form. The jockey rides this track well and if repeating that last run – and may well improve further – he won’t be far away here. He clearly has temperament issues and was led down LTO, as well as having headgear. He could lose his race before the start, that is a risk. But, if he gets out he will be able to just sit off the pace and pounce in the final furlong.

We should get a decent run for our money from both of these and at the prices were the two I want to be on. They are in form, look to be progressive (‘capper may not have them yet) and either lead or race up with the pace. 

PACE – Red Barron and Thesme should blast along from the low numbers, up that far side rail. They may migrate to the centre if it is deemed a track bias- we will know from the consolation sprint earlier on maybe – but if it is the same all over they should stay up that far rail. There may be more sustained pace high, but she is quick, as is Red Barron, and they could be leading the far side early. Numbers 12,13 and 15 look likely to try and take the high numbers along. Judicial should just sit off these and pick up the pieces – in theory! 

Clearly, as always in these sprints, you can make a case for a few more but there was nothing at bigger prices that caught the eye. Money is important for Cowell’s winners in these c2 sprint handicaps – one has won above 9/1 in recent years but it is rare. In any case, they both have plenty to prove. Kimberella has an obvious chance and maybe a fair price- but short enough for me. Those that ran at Epsom LTO have yet to do brilliantly here (small samples of course) and Judicial did thump him at Thirsk. Duke of Firenze will need some luck again as always with his style- he may get it, or they may have flown. The rest have enough to prove for me but you can make a case for most. Robot Boy would interest me if he had a run under the belt. I think Seethesun needs further, best at 6f, and could be outpaced here near the end. Hoofalong falls down on some Easterby stats from my C2 Sprint Handicap piece of research. The days rest is a concern as it coming from the AW, and he needs to step up – unsure if good enough at C2 on turf, but yet to prove he isn’t I suppose. 

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There may be more to come, tips wise, but they will be up on Saturday morning by 11am. I will have a look at the C3 consolation sprint at Muss and the C2 7f handicap from York. There is a good 3yo only C2 sprint but I like to leave 3yo only handicaps alone. 

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TIPS

That will be all for today. I will just stick with the trends sprint above.   

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainers

3.10 Muss: Olivia Fallow 2nd 7/2

3.45 Muss: Desert Law (18/1<) DNQ

5.10 Chest: Foxtrot Knight (any odds)  UP

5.20 York: Art Obesssion DNQ / Naggers UP

Other

Mehaan Maidens (any odds) 

4.30 Sand: Ma Peek UP 25/1

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

York (9/1<) 

1.50 Burano DNQ

2.25: Alfred Hutchinson 3rd / That is The Spirit UP

3,35: Lathom DNQ

4.10: Jacbequick UP / Nonchalent DNQ / Tadaany DNQ/ Terhaal DNQ

5.20: Bop It DNQ / Intisaab 2nd / Mime Dance DNQ 

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2.35 Muss: Gabrial The Duke (any odds) UP

2.50 Chest: Gabrial The Terror 2nd / Modernism UP (both 14/1<) 

4.55 Muss: Gabrial The Tiger (any odds) WON 5/1>5/2

5.10 Chest: Ballesteros DNQ (heart stopping!!) / Lexis Hero WON 4/1>7/2

7.20 Ling: Great Expectations (9/1<)

8.20 Ling: Little Indian (9/1<) 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

5.20 Mime Dance – 25/1 – (UP- ground may have gone against him in the end.. not that it appears this was his day) The PROFILE HORSE klaxon- (and also a potential system bet above) for his old connections this ones ideal conditions appeared to be C4 or below. good/good to firm – which I believe he gets here. 2,4,1,6,2,3,1,3,1 in such conditions. There is always some caution when they move yards of course and this ones winning form has been over 7f. In the past money has also been important  for the horse – 0/15,0 places above 6/1 all races. And, we know about O’Meara’s stats with those over 9/1 here- the odd one does go in, and maybe this is that one! Not one to go mad over but that formline is tempting for a little EW interest I think, 4 places.

I should add for my Daily Punt Column i highlighted the chances of Dark Amber in the 1.45 Bath at 6/1. 

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That is all for today. Too much racing again for a Saturday, it’s hard to know where to look! 

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Yesterday… Well Parsnip Pete ensured that I had a free evening out at Aintree in the end but even that didn’t help me get over the disappointment of Monkey Kingdom – maybe living up to his name. He was backed in and then drifted back out, which I never like and Curtis wasn’t at the track either, despite having two runners. There is maybe nothing in that, but it is never  a positive, in any case. I am not going to look for an excuse – unless he done some damage jumping a fence or there was a physical issue as he seemed to stop very quickly down the side/turning in. Stamina wouldn’t have been an issue at that point and neither was the rain sodden turf. One of those. Annoying.

Mias Anthem – the 25/1 winner – it’s always easy to say ‘ah I would have never picked that’ and be done with it – but I think I should be backing every winner of every 3m+ handicap chase that goes in at a ‘value’ price (clearly that will never happen but that’s my attitude) and its good to try and learn something. Clearly the two most recent runs were the ones that got the attention, and namely that last effort, which while over hurdles was lackluster. Before yesterday he was 0/17,1 places when above 8/1 – just showing that those kind of stats can mean bugger all sometimes. Two runs ago he may have needed the run, over an inadequate trip. If you look at his two wins before that -5 and 6 starts ago- then you may be left thinking why have I let him go off at 25/1 carrying no money. At Sedgefield he had Highland Lodge behind him- his last run for Lavelle before leaving and winning the Becher chase. If you just looked at those two runs – then 25s was too big. That was solid enough chasing form. Clearly I didn’t just look at those. In the end I backed an in-form horse who bombed out while a seemingly out of form horse dotted up. What a game! 🙂 Add in that he had come over the water and Fox was in the saddle in a race where Lucinda Russell had a runner (I am unsure if she has first dibs on him or what relationship is now Buchanan has retired – but I suspect he had the choice) and 25s does look big. Of course that is all said having watched him win. But, from every unbacked winner, there is always something to try and take away. Another puzzle unsolved. 

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