NEW REPORT ALERT:-
I have pulled together 6 of my previous articles written for The Betting Insiders Club. There is an intro which explains more but at 35 pages and 14,680 ‘words’ (blimey,longer than my dissertation,an increasingly long time ago now!) it should give you all something to get stuck into. The articles are a mixture of trainer stats pieces, my approach to 3m+ chases, profiling etc. The contents have never been published on this blog so it will all be new to your eyes I think.
Enjoy… (and let me know if you like what you read…always open to suggestions for areas to explore…)
Epsom Notes: Just to say that I will be emailing out some Epsom Notes to Donation Club members by lunchtime on Thursday, so do look out for that if you are in that club. There are a few trainer snippets, albeit nothing overly stand out – but in the handicaps in particular some good ‘draw’ pointers. Just want to finish off the non-handicap section.
I will get the trends for The Dash up on Thursday also, and endeavour to complete the Summer AW TTP Report.
Gold Beau – 2 points win – 13/2 (PP/BetF/ToteS) 6/1 general UP 11/2 – my general struggle goes on – he drifted out again from 7/2 which was concerning and it was over after the first couple of furlongs to me – never traveled really – very disappointing that run.
Well I started to write up this one’s chance in the ‘Stats/Angles of Interest’ section below but, having then had more of a proper look at the oppo, it became apparent as to this ones chance and it is a sprint handicap, the horse looks a value price to my eye (was 7s generally when I started looking) and it would have been a case of bottling it if I failed to tip him here.
Some stats – My TTP guide tells me the trainer is 5/18,12p here with handicappers in the last 3 seasons, and geegeez reports tell me trainer and jockey are 4/6 when teaming up at the track with all runners. 3 of those are on this horse I think – the jockey is 5/15,6 places on him in flat handicaps. He hasn’t ridden him in a while. Interesting.His profile chance also shows up well in the IE reports against these.
The horse – well he has effectively won off OR70 in the past (taking account of 5lb claim – so OR75 on paper) and is only 2lb above his last winning mark, which was here. He loves it rattling quick – unlike a few in here who are unproven on good to firm/have proved they don’t really like it – He is 3/7, 4 places at Hamilton AND of most interest is that in handicaps, when he goes off 6/1 or shorter, he is 5/7, 5 places. All wins when 6/1 or shorter. SO, that is important – the market looks like this will be the case,albeit he has placed at bigger odds so all hope isn’t lost if he doesn’t come in. . But, it will be boosted if he goes off shorter, which part of me thinks he will do.
PACE – he races prominently and there are no out and out front runners in here (the Fife horse may try and use stamina if he starts on terms) so no excuses there – should be in the box seat. The last piece left is Trainer Form- I am starting to put more and more focus on this, and wanting to see little green numbers next to the trainers name on the geegeez cards – this one doesn’t have those but two of her last 5 runners have placed at least, in the last 2 weeks.
He just has a lot going for him and it was screaming a 2 pointer at me. We shall see if that is well placed confidence or not come 4.35. I will be bitterly disappointed, bordering on dejection, if this one doesn’t go very close.
What of the oppo-
Inexes looks like he want’s further and I can’t think this drop in trip will help, on how he has run and his breeding- it is a stiff 6 here and they may try and make use of him but he is now 0/7,2p in career and he hasn’t been running that great recently. Salvatore Fury is a danger but is short enough and you can take him on based on his price alone. Thankfully for us he also has a few things to prove – firstly he doesn’t appear in brilliant form – running ok but not as if about to bound in and they keep messing with the trip. He is a CD winner but all flat handicap wins have come in the C5 band below this – C5<3.5k.. 0/4,0 places in this C5 and 0/12,3 places C4 or above. All wins at the lower C5 level or below. All wins are when returning within 15 days of last run also – 0/12,3 places 1660 days-in turf handicaps. The trainer is also blowing hot and cold also. Now, he is 3/6,6 places when Fav, so that has going for him – but he does have chinks, in the context of his price.
Keenes Point is 1/21 on turf and has a few questions to answer – he does like placing a lot, including here, but he is just hard to win with. If the money does come for the stablemate, surely he wont be spoiling the party! His only win was also in C6. Star Cracker has enough to prove inc class/going/distance and isn’t in form. I can’t have him but these Goldie horses are mercurial beasts so I suppose anything is possible!! Interesting that Lee isn’t on him, I think.
What’s left of the other three on the card also have plenty to prove and based on their form or their profile or trainer form, or a mixture of all three, I can’t have them here.
So, everything looks set for an almighty run for this one. I think he is a couple of points too big based on his chance against this lot/suitability for conditions, and I am more than comfortable recommending getting the wheelbarrow out.
Right, Onto FFos Las
NO Tips in this race…it is far too competitive – looking through my notes and I like there to be a few X next to horses names – and I don’t really have any – in terms of profiles/suitability for race conditions it is hard to dismiss any really – albeit a couple have stamina questions, some look out of sorts. King Massini looks interesting but ran poorly LTO, before the error and is 0/13,0 places going off above 13/2- Cork Citizen is in the could be anything category and you could take a chance at 16s, Pipe will find the key at some point – and the rest take it in turns really with a few characters dotted about – all of the Top 4 have a decent chance if putting best foot forward. Just a bit too much of a puzzle.
That is all, tipping wise.
2.30 Ham: Groundworker (18/1<) UP 11/4 >7/4
3.30 Ham: Bushtiger (any odds) UP 18/1 (interesting ride/race from him,suspect Ruth will find the key soon!)
4.00 Ham: Ellaal (any odds) UP 15/2
J Fanshawe Kempton (any odds)
8.10 Kemp: Up In Lights
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
2.30 Ham: Little Belter (any odds) 2nd 8/1
3.50 Rip: Indy (16/1<) NR
4.40 Ling: St Patricks Day (9/1<) NR
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
None Today. Had a good look and nothing jumping out at a price.