Members Report: 01/06/16 (COMPLETE)

NEW REPORT ALERT:-

I have pulled together 6 of my previous articles written for The Betting Insiders Club. There is an intro which explains more but at 35 pages and 14,680 ‘words’ (blimey,longer than my dissertation,an increasingly long time ago now!) it should give you all something to get stuck into. The articles are a mixture of trainer stats pieces, my approach to 3m+ chases, profiling etc. The contents have never been published on this blog so it will all be new to your eyes I think.

Enjoy… (and let me know if you like what you read…always open to suggestions for areas to explore…)

MY BETTING INSIDERS ARTICLES CAN BE READ HERE>>>

 

 

Well I think in general I am happy to leave May behind – I will get a monthly results review up in the next couple of days. Still, it was nice to end the month with a small profit for the portfolio on Tuesday -to help with the mood if nothing else! 

***

TIPS

3.20 Cartmel 

Carters Rest – 1 point win – 16/1 (BV/PP/BetfS) UP 14/1 (that can only be described as disappointing – running as if completely lost his way – clearly he isn’t getting younger but that was a laboured effort, he wasn’t as strong in market as hoped – poor. Clearly I expected him to go better than that for a long way. Annoying. Moving on. Looks like change of tactics have helped winner,good ride) 

This price was an insult – he could fall out the back of the TV – but the point is that on everything we know about this one and how the race may set up – this price was ridiculous. 

He is a 13 year old now, built into those tasty odds, but he has  a lot going for him. He won this race last year, for a different trainer but for the same jockey who is 3/11,6 places on him in handicap chases. It is interesting that she has kept the ride. This is the 3rd run for this trainer and I can only think this has been the plan – surely this has been the plan?? They have got his mark down 3lbs to OR100 and he has come a neck second off 101 at Muss, so that won’t be an excuse. (bar something having plenty in hand of course) He is 1/2,2 places in handicap chases here, 2/4,3 places in C5 handicap chases – last two runs being in C4 – and to an extent irrelevant if this was the plan – and he ran well enough for long enough LTO. He is also best with no headgear on – 2/8,5 places – and has never really run well with any aids – interesting then that they put the hood on LTO and have removed it for this run. All race conditions look fine, and he stays a bit further…

And finally – unless something tries to spoil the party he will be right in the box seat here – I think they should be able to get an uncontested lead from what I can see and if he can get into a rhythm we should have some fun. He doesn’t have to lead and can just track/sit off the pace if something runs in a way it doesn’t normally do.

All in, for me, he was no 16s/14s shot here, given all of the above. It should be fun to watch in any case and I can see him being bang there turning for home – it is a deceptive run-in and let’s hope the line arrives soon enough!

Of the rest – well at the prices nothing else is jumping out at me. Edeavour has the ability to win this and mixes hurdling and chasing but he is better at the former, 2/26 chasing – albeit he has won here – he can be held up and I don’t really like that here over fences. 4s is short enough really, given his overall profile, but he is clearly in form. Theflyingportrait has yet to win any race of note and keeps placing over fences – maybe that consistency will be rewarded, or maybe he is a shirker – a herd horse who simply refuses to get close enough/go past the lead horse in front of him. Today may be his day but given his profile 6s is short also for me- and he is usually held up off the pace also.

Bollin Line would have a chance I think and will appreciate the better ground. Not much I can say to put you off given soft maybe wasnt ideal on recent runs and he was impressive at Carlisle a few runs back. But, there is a chance the capper has him now also. And he wasn’t a 16/1 shot. The rest have enough questions to answer for me, for one reason or another.

So, we should get a good spin here. If Carters Rest can get into a jumping rhythm and poach an easy lead, if he retains any ability then he could take some catching. More than happy at 16s to take that chance.   

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainer (18/1<)

8.00 Ripon: Mississippi 3rd 7/1 (odd ride,sat motionless for an age!) 

Jumps Handicappers

These two are on the ‘watch/review list’ for now, following review…

4.10 Font: Mariet (20/1<) 

5.20 Cart: Weapon Of Choice (14/1<)

Other

Meehan Maidens (any odds) 

2.00 Nott: Kodiac Moment UP 100/1>50/1

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

5.00 Notts: Little Choosey (any odds) WON 4/1 (8/1 – R4) Also 4/1 SP. 

7.30 Ripon: Rantan 2nd 16/1>12/1 (agonising!)/ Spike (16/1<) UP (played for luck in running, got none) 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

2.20 Cartmel – Wyfield Rose – 12/1 – UP 8/1 (yep,has her own ideas it would appear) just sat here scratching my head as to why this one is 12/1. The trainer is 5/27,13 places with all runners here in last 5 years – my TTP Summer Jumps will tell you that in the last 3 seasons he is 3/15,7 places with all handicappers here. They clearly took a while to find the key with this one, winning for the first time over hurdles, on her 18th start, LTO. But, why shouldn’t she follow up here? That win could work wonders for the confidence and she has two more things in her favour – the wonderful Henry Brooke is on top – he is decent anyway for me but I am not sure what it is about this track that brings out the best in him but he does very well here, and he is in form generally. In particular he does well on front runners/prominent racers and there is every chance he tries and dictates this from the front. He won on her LTO. Now, maybe she is just temperamental and won’t follow up that recent run, but at 12s, given all the above and fact the oppo don’t amount to much (on a quick glance) I was happy to take a chance. I am not sure what I have missed about the Fav – bar the trainer/jockey – but that appears a short price to my eyes – he is 0/16,2 places when good is in going,yet to win beyond 2m and is 0/4,0 places after a break. BUT, it is the first run for Elliot and clearly it looks like they may sprinkled the magic dust on him. 

That is it for this section today. There were a handful of others that are on my notepad, inc Hydrant (mentioned in comments) but they are generally a single figure price and I want to see if we can make this section work by aiming for the 10/1+ shots. (McCains in the 5.20 looks ok, and Brooke has a runner there also – TTP Summer Jumps users may have both high up on the list – not sure as to strength of that selling form for Smadynium but both could go well – 6s/9s respectfully) 

I had a look at the 8.00 Ripon for ‘tipping’ purposes but it looks a right old puzzle – too hard arguably, and I was happy to stick with the Midgley runner. There are 7 in here that are on or below their last winning mark, plenty proven in all race conditions etc and it looks like you would be hard pressed to dismiss too many. Likewise the 3.30 Notts is a decent race and I had a glance, but again that is hard to work out – as the market suggests most in there have some sort of chance. There is also no pace on paper which adds a level of guesswork to the race – who will go on, will it be run at a crawl (anything can happen then) etc. So, I will just sit and watch. 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

58 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Do you tip in milers Josh?

    The 3.30 Not is a right old head scratcher

    Ali 1 year ago Reply


    • Top4 cdg’s

      Two For Two 9-3
      Fort Bastion 9-2 – Noted as Nearest@Fin last time in hot 7f York h’cap – J&T 19% healthy LSP

      The above are 6lb clear of below & I think that last time run from Fort Bastion seals it for me anyway.

      Express Himself 9-6 – Top2 cdg stats – Top Jock stats & a bf & on that list of One’s To Follow (hold on no he’s not on list but I got an alert for it?? wtf!)
      You´re Fired 10-0 – Top2 cdg stats – Top trainer stats

      Andy Silvers 1 year ago Reply


      • Hi Andy. Are u going to side with fort bastion.my only worry is the stable not really firing

        daniel 1 year ago Reply


        • Considering Two For Two has only ran at the track once & somehow comes out top cdg & his jockey has marginally better stats for course than those of P Makin (Fort Bastion J&T stats maybe OK, just not here lol?) & now down to 8 runners, he’s a fair EW price compared to all others including Fort Bastion, think that is what I’d do TFT EW, thanks for making me look a bit deeper…

          Andy Silvers 1 year ago Reply


      • yes, i got on FB last night as that last run caught my eye and he popped up in my tracker

        it was a hot little race as well so remarkable how he got near

        Ali 1 year ago Reply


        • Sorry Ali, missed your question – I am not opposed to tipping in any race really, as above with Carters Rest but much more comfortable in chases and don’t like to depart from high quality sprint handicaps with trend etc – i did look at that race but just looks too puzzling for me,esp the pace- not sure how it will be run- could be plenty in with a chance in last furlong- maybe. GL

          Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Why is Graham Lee not on Mississippi?

    James M 1 year ago Reply


    • Not sure, but it is definitely making me hold back on the staking for this one

      Jockey is 1/38 for trainer

      Ali 1 year ago Reply


      • It’s midgley’s only entry.Maybe Lee thought it would be better having 2 rides for channon along with crisford.

        mozzer 1 year ago Reply


      • Yeah but as we know Midgley does badly the other 11 months of the year and his record for the trainer in June in flat handicaps over the past 5 years is a more pleasing 1/5, 3 places.

        Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


    • That’s a good point well made Nick

      Ali 1 year ago Reply


  • The Lydia Richards Venetian Lad is massively overpriced at 14/1.Very consistant for an 11 yr old,loves fontwell and don’t think will be that price at the off

    gerry 1 year ago Reply


  • Hydrant 5.00 Nott. has a good profile for tomorrow, and off a career low mark (7/1)

    Chris Randall 1 year ago Reply


    • 7/1 About Hydrant looks quite generous.Has about the same chance as the as the top 3 in the betting based on that ayr run 2 runs ago Flutterbee could be the improver having run a good race on monday and is still lightly raced.But it does seem that this is Hydrant time of the year.

      mozzer 1 year ago Reply


      • Hydrant 8/1 betway 00.05 am

        mozzer 1 year ago Reply


        • You chaps sitting on a good price there – someone has been unloading in the last hour or so, and/or tipped and/or his chance just became obvious once people started looking! GL – albeit I hope the system horse does you 🙂 He could well try and lead all the way Hydrant and may take some sopping.

          Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • graham lee can,t do the weight on mississipi, his lightest weight in last twelve months is 8st8ib according to racing post stats.

    GB 1 year ago Reply


    • Well I thought he had ridden at 8 6 recently but checking over the last 14 days 8 9 is his lowest and Missi is on 8 7.

      Chris 1 year ago Reply


  • Highland Acclaim @ 16/1 looks good value in 4.30 Notts, although difficult guessing the O’Meira runners at the mo. Been plying his trade in class 2 for some time now, but has slid back down to what looks a decent mark in Cl3. Stable have had a couloir of 16/1’s lately.

    Chris Randall 1 year ago Reply


    • Highland Acclaim is of course in the 8:00 Ripon (not Notts), and appears to be drifting having come in to 12’s!!

      Chris Randall 1 year ago Reply


  • 400 at Nottingham – always like to side with an in form filly who we know has wintered well and back up in Class after a nice handicap win and with proven stamina and rain no issue I think Sagaciously is well priced at 7/1.

    Ian 1 year ago Reply


    • Rarely in life can you go wrong with in-form fillies! – In all seriousness, that is an area to do some stats digging – will add it to the list! GL

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Nice to see u highlight wyfield rose. Was already on lastnite after checking ttp for jumps. Only puzzle was why the price 12/1.

        daniel 1 year ago Reply


        • Just odd pricing – I don’t really know why 12s – no reason why she shouldn’t run her race again- in form, confidence boosted,trainer does well here, front runner etc etc. Maybe due to price of fav it has pushed others out,. Very odd. Had to have a go at those odds.

          Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • I have!

        Richard Sutton 1 year ago Reply


      • we all know they are impossible to fathom for at least 2 weeks every month! – seriously an old sage taught me a simple trick and it works with frightening regularity, look at any filly over 3 years of age and if it runs in any 5 day period when it has won in past seasons, have a punt on it, all to do with female well being and seasons he reckoned.

        Ian 1 year ago Reply


    • Now the fav is out which was my only worry, go on sagaciously

      daniel 1 year ago Reply


  • If Carters Rest reproduces any of its last two runs on the clock here it will go very close, Larkhall with Ryan Day back up will be a threat if reproducing when it got beat by 29 lengths but in a race that was run in a fast time, at around 4-5 lengths per second it still ran a very good time. Endeavour would be my other for the frame, filthy tricast I think. Taaxxxxiiiiii.

    Andy 1 year ago Reply


    • Good luck Andy. The break put me off Larkhall – 0/8, 0 places after 30 days – and record very fresh is within that – made 6s looks short enough to my eyes – but, of fit, ticks enough boxes to run well as market suggests.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Allow dallow 4.40 fontwell. ttp jumps. hope coleman can boot this one home. drops in trip from 3m last run.

        daniel 1 year ago Reply


        • yep, had a look at that race but looked tight enough near the top and was put off by two winning horses above him albeit one has dropped out and Jonjo’s does look good, doing something different as well. 10/3 now, which may be fair enough. I wont be playing but good luck if you are. He doesn’t send many here over the summer but as you can see, they usually go well enough.

          Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


          • Yeah josh, enjoying this jump ttp. i think the flat ttp got on at 6/1 lastnite though rule 4 now.

            daniel 1 year ago Reply


  • Best cdg @ Cartmel 5.20 Sleep In First 16/s

    Andy Silvers 1 year ago Reply


    • Ah yes, good shout – he was on my notes shortlist – what with the two stats picks I think I have rather shirked the race!! He ticks plenty of boxes and is 9lb below his last winning mark. He isn’t getting any younger but is 1/2 at track and maybe can out-run his odds – he may well be the bet in the race,

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


    • Yeah I am on that one also. Thought 25s was a cracking price last night. Trainer in form also which I think counts for more with the smaller trainers.

      Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


  • weather issue there’s every chance of changing ground conditions at Ripon before racing starts, which makes things difficult. Add in the fact Nottingham claim to have only a 1mm of rain, despite it bucketing down just a few miles away yesterday (I know, I was in it) and still have a going stick reading up from Monday morning, and it makes this a day to steer clear of.

    Pab 1 year ago Reply


    • Yep agree – that did influence me a bit in diving into those flat cards- albeit at odds etc nothing leaped out at me – Cartmel looks set fair I think – decent ground and no rain forecast according to clerk of course via BHA website.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Carters Rest looks cool

        Pab 1 year ago Reply


    • lol…if I didn’t know where that quote cam from, Pab, I’d take you for English

      Paul 1 year ago Reply


  • 21:00 Ripon
    J Candlish
    Maoi Chinn Tire 8/1
    my tipster she is really good has cancelled all tips at Ripon

    Pab 1 year ago Reply


  • 2.20 Cartmel – Wyfield Rose can be best one

    Pab 1 year ago Reply


  • Venetian Lad won at Font 01Apr16
    on soft
    Gowanauthat can be better depends on price

    Pab 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi guys, fancy having a dabble on total race distances. Is there any website i can look at that, that will have history stats on each racecourse?

    Max 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Max- what do you mean? total winning distance of all winners on a given card? Would be interesting if any track stats on that – to my mind there is no logical reason why there would be any correlation to track – given the number of different variables that affect such an outcome – unless I am missing the point, which is likely! I have no idea as to your question, am sure someone may know…

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Hi josh, yes total for whole racecard. On monday i did a £20 double over 14.5 furlongs at Leicester and windsor at 13/8 +3/1
        Not brilliant odds but a winner !

        Max 1 year ago Reply


  • I am in Patriotic 8:40 chelm 14/1

    Pab 1 year ago Reply


    • and Lyric Street 5:20 CARTMEL

      Pab 1 year ago Reply


  • not had much persistent rain in nottingham, dry and very breezy now, going shouldn,t change!!

    GB 1 year ago Reply


    • i have NR only at Not

      Pab 1 year ago Reply


  • probably doesn,t want fast ground pab?

    GB 1 year ago Reply


    • You´re Fired is NR
      my Ripon is bet advice
      so Cartmel

      Pab 1 year ago Reply


      • my Ripon is no bet advice

        Pab 1 year ago Reply


  • I am still out of form, but will continue to plug away at minimum stakes.

    At Chelmsford, 6.40 Escalating and 7.10 Willytheconqueror each way and King Cole win. All suited by race conditions and distance??

    Martin Colwell 1 year ago Reply


    • You and me both. Good luck with these.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


    • I’m slipping back too….minimum stakes also.

      Tony Mc. 1 year ago Reply


  • Nice to see a winner on the angles,after a kerry lee winner yesterday,things may be looking up

    gerry 1 year ago Reply


    • Hopefully! They do need to kick into gear really, albeit seem to have been saying that for some time! Still awaiting that big bang! A couple of decent priced ones tonight, be nice if one of those dropped in. Keeping thing ticking over anyway, portfolio wise.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Hallstatt in the 9.00 still neglected in the market

    Last run was very good considering he blew the start

    Only doubt is if he goes right-handed

    Ali 1 year ago Reply


Post A Reply