NEW REPORT ALERT:-
I have pulled together 6 of my previous articles written for The Betting Insiders Club. There is an intro which explains more but at 35 pages and 14,680 ‘words’ (blimey,longer than my dissertation,an increasingly long time ago now!) it should give you all something to get stuck into. The articles are a mixture of trainer stats pieces, my approach to 3m+ chases, profiling etc. The contents have never been published on this blog so it will all be new to your eyes I think.
Enjoy… (and let me know if you like what you read…always open to suggestions for areas to explore…)
Well I think in general I am happy to leave May behind – I will get a monthly results review up in the next couple of days. Still, it was nice to end the month with a small profit for the portfolio on Tuesday -to help with the mood if nothing else!
Carters Rest – 1 point win – 16/1 (BV/PP/BetfS) UP 14/1 (that can only be described as disappointing – running as if completely lost his way – clearly he isn’t getting younger but that was a laboured effort, he wasn’t as strong in market as hoped – poor. Clearly I expected him to go better than that for a long way. Annoying. Moving on. Looks like change of tactics have helped winner,good ride)
This price was an insult – he could fall out the back of the TV – but the point is that on everything we know about this one and how the race may set up – this price was ridiculous.
He is a 13 year old now, built into those tasty odds, but he has a lot going for him. He won this race last year, for a different trainer but for the same jockey who is 3/11,6 places on him in handicap chases. It is interesting that she has kept the ride. This is the 3rd run for this trainer and I can only think this has been the plan – surely this has been the plan?? They have got his mark down 3lbs to OR100 and he has come a neck second off 101 at Muss, so that won’t be an excuse. (bar something having plenty in hand of course) He is 1/2,2 places in handicap chases here, 2/4,3 places in C5 handicap chases – last two runs being in C4 – and to an extent irrelevant if this was the plan – and he ran well enough for long enough LTO. He is also best with no headgear on – 2/8,5 places – and has never really run well with any aids – interesting then that they put the hood on LTO and have removed it for this run. All race conditions look fine, and he stays a bit further…
And finally – unless something tries to spoil the party he will be right in the box seat here – I think they should be able to get an uncontested lead from what I can see and if he can get into a rhythm we should have some fun. He doesn’t have to lead and can just track/sit off the pace if something runs in a way it doesn’t normally do.
All in, for me, he was no 16s/14s shot here, given all of the above. It should be fun to watch in any case and I can see him being bang there turning for home – it is a deceptive run-in and let’s hope the line arrives soon enough!
Of the rest – well at the prices nothing else is jumping out at me. Edeavour has the ability to win this and mixes hurdling and chasing but he is better at the former, 2/26 chasing – albeit he has won here – he can be held up and I don’t really like that here over fences. 4s is short enough really, given his overall profile, but he is clearly in form. Theflyingportrait has yet to win any race of note and keeps placing over fences – maybe that consistency will be rewarded, or maybe he is a shirker – a herd horse who simply refuses to get close enough/go past the lead horse in front of him. Today may be his day but given his profile 6s is short also for me- and he is usually held up off the pace also.
Bollin Line would have a chance I think and will appreciate the better ground. Not much I can say to put you off given soft maybe wasnt ideal on recent runs and he was impressive at Carlisle a few runs back. But, there is a chance the capper has him now also. And he wasn’t a 16/1 shot. The rest have enough questions to answer for me, for one reason or another.
So, we should get a good spin here. If Carters Rest can get into a jumping rhythm and poach an easy lead, if he retains any ability then he could take some catching. More than happy at 16s to take that chance.
June Trainer (18/1<)
8.00 Ripon: Mississippi 3rd 7/1 (odd ride,sat motionless for an age!)
These two are on the ‘watch/review list’ for now, following review…
4.10 Font: Mariet (20/1<)
5.20 Cart: Weapon Of Choice (14/1<)
Meehan Maidens (any odds)
2.00 Nott: Kodiac Moment UP 100/1>50/1
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
5.00 Notts: Little Choosey (any odds) WON 4/1 (8/1 – R4) Also 4/1 SP.
7.30 Ripon: Rantan 2nd 16/1>12/1 (agonising!)/ Spike (16/1<) UP (played for luck in running, got none)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.20 Cartmel – Wyfield Rose – 12/1 – UP 8/1 (yep,has her own ideas it would appear) just sat here scratching my head as to why this one is 12/1. The trainer is 5/27,13 places with all runners here in last 5 years – my TTP Summer Jumps will tell you that in the last 3 seasons he is 3/15,7 places with all handicappers here. They clearly took a while to find the key with this one, winning for the first time over hurdles, on her 18th start, LTO. But, why shouldn’t she follow up here? That win could work wonders for the confidence and she has two more things in her favour – the wonderful Henry Brooke is on top – he is decent anyway for me but I am not sure what it is about this track that brings out the best in him but he does very well here, and he is in form generally. In particular he does well on front runners/prominent racers and there is every chance he tries and dictates this from the front. He won on her LTO. Now, maybe she is just temperamental and won’t follow up that recent run, but at 12s, given all the above and fact the oppo don’t amount to much (on a quick glance) I was happy to take a chance. I am not sure what I have missed about the Fav – bar the trainer/jockey – but that appears a short price to my eyes – he is 0/16,2 places when good is in going,yet to win beyond 2m and is 0/4,0 places after a break. BUT, it is the first run for Elliot and clearly it looks like they may sprinkled the magic dust on him.
That is it for this section today. There were a handful of others that are on my notepad, inc Hydrant (mentioned in comments) but they are generally a single figure price and I want to see if we can make this section work by aiming for the 10/1+ shots. (McCains in the 5.20 looks ok, and Brooke has a runner there also – TTP Summer Jumps users may have both high up on the list – not sure as to strength of that selling form for Smadynium but both could go well – 6s/9s respectfully)
I had a look at the 8.00 Ripon for ‘tipping’ purposes but it looks a right old puzzle – too hard arguably, and I was happy to stick with the Midgley runner. There are 7 in here that are on or below their last winning mark, plenty proven in all race conditions etc and it looks like you would be hard pressed to dismiss too many. Likewise the 3.30 Notts is a decent race and I had a glance, but again that is hard to work out – as the market suggests most in there have some sort of chance. There is also no pace on paper which adds a level of guesswork to the race – who will go on, will it be run at a crawl (anything can happen then) etc. So, I will just sit and watch.