EPSOM DASH: TRENDS + STATS (complete)

EPSOM DASH 2016

19 renewals

315 runners, 70 placed horses

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 14/19… 2nd to 5th LTO
    • 14/120, 35 places…74% winners…38% runners…50% places
  • 1st: 0/34, 9 places

Horse Age

  • 3 yo: 0/28, 1 place
  • Even spread across the rest. Age 10+ … 0/8, 1 place

Days Since Run

  • Nothing of note

Horse Weight

  • Nothing of note

Horse Official Rating

  • Nothing significant

Season Runs

  • 1 Only: 1/68, 15 places
  • 3 or 4: 12/19
    • 12/108, 24 places…63% winners…34% runners…34% places

Position In Market

  • 10/19 Top 3 in market. (10/60,22 places)
  • 17/19 Top 10 in market

Odds

  • 17/19 20/1 or shorter
    • But 2 winners, 20/1 plus, inc one 50/1 +

***

OTHER STATS

Stalls/Draw

Stall

  • 1-3: 4/43, 14 places… +36 SP
  • 4-7: 0/75, 9 places
  • 20: 0/9, 1 place
  • (even enough spread drawn 8-19)

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 19/19 had placed at least once in last 6 starts
    • Had not: 0/27, 2 places
  • 17/19 had placed on at least once of last 3 starts

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 0: 0/10, 2 places
  • 8+ : 0/43, 11 places

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 0: 2/67, 9 places
  • 7+ : 0/26, 6 places

H-Win (Class)

  • 0 wins: 11/166, 32 places…

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

  • 18/19 Top 3 on at least one of last 3 starts
    • Did not: 1/107, 15 places

Class Move

  • Drop 1 or more: 0/29, 5 places

Jockey Claims

  • 5lb: 0/14, 3 places
  • 7lb: 0/6, 0 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Race Code (All-Weather..)

  • AW: 0/12, 1 place

(LR) Odds

  • 28/1+ : 0/28, 3 places

(LR) Track (of interest)

  • Chester: 3/24, 6 places
  • York: 3/62, 12 places
  • Redcar: 2/4, 2 places
  • Kempton: 2/13, 3 places
  • Muss: 2/22, 3 places
  • Epsom: 0/12, 2 places
  • Lingfield: 0/10, 1 place
  • Haydock: 0/29, 4 places
  • Newmarket (Rowley): 0/20, 7 places

 

Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics

1st Run Class

  • Class 6: 0/32, 0 places

***

Trainers (of interest)

  • D Nicholls: 5/48, 12 places
  • S C Williams: 2/7, 2 places
  • P Midgley: 1/4, 2 places
  • T D Barron: 0/5, 0 places
  • J Bradley: 0/8, 1 place
  • R Fahey: 0/9, 1 place

 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    What do you make of the draw stats. I cant fathom a reason why stalls 4-7 would do worse than everything around it (I can understand 1-3 doing well but not 4-7 doing worse than 8 to 19). Seems like an anomaly to me but any thoughts would be appreciated.

    Regards,
    Nick

    1. Yep, could well be an anomaly and I wouldn’t want to get too stuck up on them if you like the price – pace could be the thing – 4-7 probably want to be up against the rail and could be a case that, if they dont get out/across – they get stuck behind the front 3, who move over – then you may get some 8+ coming over- may just be a traffic thing -or as you point out nothing at all but I thought it eye catching enough to mention it. I wont be starting with stalls 4-7 and putting a line through them!

      1. Ignore some of that thinking- stall 1 is far side isnt it. High drawn against the nearside rail. But, in that case the traffic argument could still be the issue, getting stuck behind horses maybe.

  2. Think maybe its just a case of the horse with an upwards form trajectory running close to where the pace is and getting a good tow into the final furlong. Normally pick one of this type from each side of the draw and hope for the best.

    1. sounds like a decent approach to me David, you can let us all know what takes your eye this year when you have picked a couple. I managed to pluck the winner out last year on here and for many reasons it would be nice to do it again! GL

  3. I have a theory may be bo**o* but it is that drawn high you are right on the top of the camber and there is a definite ridge up there about 6 feet wide, drawn low you have a less sloping part of ground to run on but when fields are @20 – as the Dash normally is, in stalls 4-8 you are probably on the very steepest part of the slop and therefore very unbalanced over the majority of the race.

    I went and stood once at the 5 f pole and it was terrifying to see just how much the ground falls away and how steep the initial section is.

  4. Hi Josh
    With the recent rains changing the way the races are panning out I’ve decided on Normal Equilibrium and Makaynis as my 2 against the field. Neither will be inconvenienced by the underfoot conditions and both have the pace to lay up as I don’t think anything will be coming from out the back. Granted luck in running.
    Good luck if your playing

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