EPSOM DASH 2016
19 renewals
315 runners, 70 placed horses
CHECKLIST
TRENDS
Previous Place
- 14/19… 2nd to 5th LTO
- 14/120, 35 places…74% winners…38% runners…50% places
- 1st: 0/34, 9 places
Horse Age
- 3 yo: 0/28, 1 place
- Even spread across the rest. Age 10+ … 0/8, 1 place
Days Since Run
- Nothing of note
Horse Weight
- Nothing of note
Horse Official Rating
- Nothing significant
Season Runs
- 1 Only: 1/68, 15 places
- 3 or 4: 12/19
- 12/108, 24 places…63% winners…34% runners…34% places
Position In Market
- 10/19 Top 3 in market. (10/60,22 places)
- 17/19 Top 10 in market
Odds
- 17/19 20/1 or shorter
- But 2 winners, 20/1 plus, inc one 50/1 +
***
OTHER STATS
Stalls/Draw
Stall
- 1-3: 4/43, 14 places… +36 SP
- 4-7: 0/75, 9 places
- 20: 0/9, 1 place
- (even enough spread drawn 8-19)
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H-Run (Last Placing)
- 19/19 had placed at least once in last 6 starts
- Had not: 0/27, 2 places
- 17/19 had placed on at least once of last 3 starts
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
- 0: 0/10, 2 places
- 8+ : 0/43, 11 places
H-Win (Hncp/Non)
- 0: 2/67, 9 places
- 7+ : 0/26, 6 places
H-Win (Class)
- 0 wins: 11/166, 32 places…
Miscellaneous 2
Best in Three Runs
- 18/19 Top 3 on at least one of last 3 starts
- Did not: 1/107, 15 places
Class Move
- Drop 1 or more: 0/29, 5 places
Jockey Claims
- 5lb: 0/14, 3 places
- 7lb: 0/6, 0 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Race Code (All-Weather..)
- AW: 0/12, 1 place
(LR) Odds
- 28/1+ : 0/28, 3 places
(LR) Track (of interest)
- Chester: 3/24, 6 places
- York: 3/62, 12 places
- Redcar: 2/4, 2 places
- Kempton: 2/13, 3 places
- Muss: 2/22, 3 places
- Epsom: 0/12, 2 places
- Lingfield: 0/10, 1 place
- Haydock: 0/29, 4 places
- Newmarket (Rowley): 0/20, 7 places
Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics
1st Run Class
- Class 6: 0/32, 0 places
***
Trainers (of interest)
- D Nicholls: 5/48, 12 places
- S C Williams: 2/7, 2 places
- P Midgley: 1/4, 2 places
- T D Barron: 0/5, 0 places
- J Bradley: 0/8, 1 place
- R Fahey: 0/9, 1 place
7 Responses
Hi Josh,
What do you make of the draw stats. I cant fathom a reason why stalls 4-7 would do worse than everything around it (I can understand 1-3 doing well but not 4-7 doing worse than 8 to 19). Seems like an anomaly to me but any thoughts would be appreciated.
Regards,
Nick
Yep, could well be an anomaly and I wouldn’t want to get too stuck up on them if you like the price – pace could be the thing – 4-7 probably want to be up against the rail and could be a case that, if they dont get out/across – they get stuck behind the front 3, who move over – then you may get some 8+ coming over- may just be a traffic thing -or as you point out nothing at all but I thought it eye catching enough to mention it. I wont be starting with stalls 4-7 and putting a line through them!
Ignore some of that thinking- stall 1 is far side isnt it. High drawn against the nearside rail. But, in that case the traffic argument could still be the issue, getting stuck behind horses maybe.
Think maybe its just a case of the horse with an upwards form trajectory running close to where the pace is and getting a good tow into the final furlong. Normally pick one of this type from each side of the draw and hope for the best.
sounds like a decent approach to me David, you can let us all know what takes your eye this year when you have picked a couple. I managed to pluck the winner out last year on here and for many reasons it would be nice to do it again! GL
I have a theory may be bo**o* but it is that drawn high you are right on the top of the camber and there is a definite ridge up there about 6 feet wide, drawn low you have a less sloping part of ground to run on but when fields are @20 – as the Dash normally is, in stalls 4-8 you are probably on the very steepest part of the slop and therefore very unbalanced over the majority of the race.
I went and stood once at the 5 f pole and it was terrifying to see just how much the ground falls away and how steep the initial section is.
Hi Josh
With the recent rains changing the way the races are panning out I’ve decided on Normal Equilibrium and Makaynis as my 2 against the field. Neither will be inconvenienced by the underfoot conditions and both have the pace to lay up as I don’t think anything will be coming from out the back. Granted luck in running.
Good luck if your playing