May Trainer (16/1<)
3.20 Red: Lawyer 4th 9/2>7/2
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
2.40 Towc: Aces Over Eights WON 9/2
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Three that look interesting at a price for me today…
3.00 Leic – Baileys Perle 12/1 – Dwyer is 3/9, 5 places with his handicap debutants in the last year, 1/2 at the track – that win being at the last meeting I believe – SDS was also on top for that one. The trainer is in form also – 3/8,3 places in the last 14 days. This one has raced at Newmarket the last twice over 7f and hasn’t been fancied at all but has ran ok. She takes a drop back in trip here and I like handicap debutants to be doing something different. The usual caveats apply with handicap debutants in the sense that they could just be useless given you don’t have much maiden form to go on – and if they had decent form before their hncp debut they wouldn’t be a decent price. We shall see how this one goes.
3.20 Red – Broctune Papa Gio – 25/1 – UP- with 4 places to aim at I couldn’t resist a nibble at this one – the only question is fitness, but more on that in a moment. He shows up with a solid profile with the Instant Expert Tab, whereas a lot of these have questions to answer namely over class or distance or both, and plenty don’t come into this in much form. This horse has been in the tracker for sometime as having a ‘profile’ and I backed him a couple of times last year.
He just likes Redcar, albeit in truth this is where he races most. At this track, in handicaps, over 7f-8f, C5 or below, Good or better… 2,1,1,1,2,1,5,4,1,14,2,11 … those final 3 runs were last season, which included a close 2nd. He has won twice at 20/1. The trainer is also in form – 3/17,5 places in the last 30 days, 2/8,3 places last 14 days. This jockey was the last one to win on him, at the back end of 2014. He is also handicapped to go in now, even more so with this claim. Now, he isn’t getting any younger and the long break is the only question. He has placed in a division of this race before and has come a 1.3L second after 181 days off, at this track, earlier in his career. Reveley is 7/65,14 places with flat handicappers returning 121-365 days.
Hopefully you can see why I couldn’t resist a nibble at 25s, 4 places to play with. IF he is fully tuned up here, I don’t think he will be far away. It could be that he needs the run and will fade out tamely and could have lost some ability now. At this price you have to take a chance on something and I will have a go.
5.30 Leic – Pretty Jewel – 10/1 – back to Leicester where James Tate is 3/8, 5 places with his handicap debutants in the last 5 years and also has a decent record here with his handicappers in the same time – 5/17,8 places, 29% sr, +11 SP. He also had a winner yesterday and this jockey has ridden a few winners for him. This one steps up 2 furlongs on her last run, which was also her first of the new season. She could both come on for the run and improve for the step up in distance. At a double figure price she looked interesting.
So, three on paper who could all out-run their odds or make me look like a chump! But, the stats are strong and all three trainers are in form. There are reasons why they could all win, and equally questions/opposition etc which could mean they all disappoint. BPG may be worth following at Redcar all season as he may go in at a price some point this year, and the stats for the other two should pay, over time. Fingers crossed that is today!
That is all for today. Post Complete, signing off 8.20am.
Today and tomorrow I will pull together some trainer notes/stats etc for Epsom, for Donations Club Members. I don’t know what I will find as yet or if there will be any decent ‘ways in’ – we shall see!
I will post trends/stats for the Epsom Dash on here at some point before the race.