Members Report: 31/05/16 (COMPLETE)

 

TIPS

None today. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

May Trainer (16/1<)

3.20 Red: Lawyer 4th 9/2>7/2

Other 

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

2.40 Towc: Aces Over Eights WON 9/2 

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

None. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Three that look interesting at a price for me today…

3.00 Leic – Baileys Perle 12/1 – Dwyer is 3/9, 5 places with his handicap debutants in the last year, 1/2 at the track – that win being at the last meeting I believe – SDS was also on top for that one. The trainer is in form also – 3/8,3 places in the last 14 days. This one has raced at Newmarket the last twice over 7f and hasn’t been fancied at all but has ran ok. She takes a drop back in trip here and I like handicap debutants to be doing something different. The usual caveats apply with handicap debutants in the sense that they could just be useless given you don’t have much maiden form to go on – and if they had decent form before their hncp debut they wouldn’t be a decent price. We shall see how this one goes.

3.20 Red – Broctune Papa Gio – 25/1 – UP- with 4 places to aim at I couldn’t resist a nibble at this one – the only question is fitness, but more on that in a moment. He shows up with a solid profile with the Instant Expert Tab, whereas a lot of these have questions to answer namely over class or distance or both, and plenty don’t come into this in much form. This horse has been in the tracker for sometime as having a ‘profile’ and I backed him a couple of times last year.

He just likes Redcar, albeit in truth this is where he races most. At this track, in handicaps, over 7f-8f, C5 or below, Good or better… 2,1,1,1,2,1,5,4,1,14,2,11 … those final 3 runs were last season, which included a close 2nd. He has won twice at 20/1.  The trainer is also in form – 3/17,5 places in the last 30 days, 2/8,3 places last 14 days. This jockey was the last one to win on him, at the back end of 2014. He is also handicapped to go in now, even more so with this claim. Now, he isn’t getting any younger and the long break is the only question. He has placed in a division of this race before and has come a 1.3L second after 181 days off, at this track, earlier in his career. Reveley is 7/65,14 places with flat handicappers returning 121-365 days. 

Hopefully you can see why I couldn’t resist a nibble at 25s, 4 places to play with. IF he is fully tuned up here, I don’t think he will be far away. It could be that he needs the run and will fade out tamely and could have lost some ability now. At this price you have to take a chance on something and I will have a go. 

5.30 Leic – Pretty Jewel – 10/1 – back to Leicester where James Tate is 3/8, 5 places with his handicap debutants in the last 5 years and also has a decent record here with his handicappers in the same time – 5/17,8 places, 29% sr, +11 SP. He also had a winner yesterday and this jockey has ridden a few winners for him. This one steps up 2 furlongs on her last run, which was also her first of the new season. She could both come on for the run and improve for the step up in distance. At a double figure price she looked interesting. 

So, three on paper who could all out-run their odds or make me look like a chump! But, the stats are strong and all three trainers are in form. There are reasons why they could all win, and equally questions/opposition etc which could mean they all disappoint. BPG may be worth following at Redcar all season as he may go in at a price some point this year, and the stats for the other two should pay, over time. Fingers crossed that is today! 

***

That is all for today. Post Complete, signing off 8.20am. 

***

Epsom

Today and tomorrow I will pull together some trainer notes/stats etc for Epsom, for Donations Club Members. I don’t know what I will find as yet or if there will be any decent ‘ways in’ – we shall see! 

I will post trends/stats for the Epsom Dash on here at some point before the race.

**

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

30 Comments

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  • Racebets are laying Lady cristol at 66/1 2.20 redcar generally 11/2

    mozzer 9 months ago Reply


    • They are muppets!

      Absolute arber prey

      Ali 9 months ago Reply


      • 5/1 now lol I wonder if they would have honoured it.Could not do it myself they restricted me to sp bets months ago.

        mozzer 9 months ago Reply


        • Anyone fancy Head coach 7.10 wolv
          Racebets are at it again 12/1 generally 15/2

          mozzer 9 months ago Reply


          • Yes I do. Both of her runners.

            Jarrod 9 months ago Reply


  • 3.00 Lei – Star Jeanie 16/s interesting… first run for R Hannon but best distance & going figures & encounters similar conditions first time since she clocked them.
    Only horse in race to have clocked a Topspeed figure 5lb higher than their OR.

    Andy Silvers 9 months ago Reply


  • I’m starting the Midgley trainer system a day early as he has been in good form and I like the chances of the two that qualify today.
    Redcar 5.20 Mr Orange
    Redcar 5.55 Giant Spark

    Karl 9 months ago Reply


    • Thanks for posting those Karl – much appreciated – I agree, it is basically June! Ruth Carr’s may be worth keeping an eye on also. Yet to look if she has any ‘qualifiers’.

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


      • Two of hers running today are ideally handicapped to be very competitive.

        Lexington Place. 4.20 Redcar ( back to last winning hcp mark)

        Cosmic Chatter 5.00 Leicester (1lb below last winning mark)

        Both favoured by todays conditions too

        andy 9 months ago Reply


        • agree about Cosmic Chatter as one of the better tipsters I use points out, just about the only one in the race who is well drawn, good mark and form on good and good/soft with a lot of rain expected during the afternoon.

          My own personal small e/w punt today will be on Swiss Cross in the 6.20 at Lingfield, out of form but every horse has a mark off which it can revive and I have more than a hunch that this is the one for this once decent performer.

          Ian 9 months ago Reply


      • Cosmic Chatter, down from 16s last night.

        Mike Dennis 9 months ago Reply


      • It is not June yet! However I have started already anyway. 16/1 winner and a few losers!

        Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


  • The first two hooked me in too, Josh, earlier; the claimer, Joe Doyle BPG, needs following as he is riding winners again and getting good bookings up north, with K Ryan, in particular. Followed your guidance with the third, so here’s to a profit.

    Chris 9 months ago Reply


    • Good stuff Chris, yep we shall see with BPG – on paper at the odds a decent bet. Would be delighted if one of them fell in! GL

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


  • Regarding Ruth Carr, I don’t think she has any qualifiers today but one of interest would be Lexington Place in the 5 furlong handicap at Redcar. This is more a profile horse as it’s form in 5F races on Good or Good to Firm in Class 4 or lower events with 11 runners or less is 8 wins 2 seconds and 2 unp from 12 runs

    Karl 9 months ago Reply


    • That should be 7 wins from 11 runs, not sure why I counted an extra one. 8 from 12 after today maybe !!!!

      Karl 9 months ago Reply


  • HI Lexington Place. 4.20 Redcar does not qualify running same distance LTO. Cosmic Chatter 5.00 Leicester qualifies 5.5fur. LTO I think they are both worth a punt. Conditions and hcp marks would make them backable.

    Roy Bedford 9 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Roy, yep and as always there to be interpreted – enough of Carr’s win running at same distance as LTO, just lose money when backing systematically- but clearly a sound case can be made based on everything mentioned above etc. GL.

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


  • 4.50 Redcar, a chance can be taken on Rose eclair at 20s it’s a nice each way price. Easterbys horses are flying at the moment, altho this horses form is not good by any stretch of the imagination and others look more likely.

    James b 9 months ago Reply


  • Lexington Place is Racing Consultant tip
    i am in both her 5f horses
    There is also her Almuhalab 13/1 15.20 Redcar
    interesting to watch

    Pab 9 months ago Reply


  • Some for today, albeit I am not in good form:

    4.40 TO Stepover; 7.40 WO Minstrels Gallery.

    20/1 shot, Dascombe newcomer, 2.30 LE White Chin.

    Martin Colwell 9 months ago Reply


  • If will be rain afternoon at Leic Cosmic Chetter chances are vanishing

    Pab 9 months ago Reply


    • & my Star Jeanie

      Andy Silvers 9 months ago Reply


      • something happen at leic looks like no races for now
        my two bets gone with rain

        Pab 9 months ago Reply


        • yea, they are delaying racing by 30 mins to let the rain get in! Think every race put back, so 3.00 is at 3.30. Didnt anticipate that and being good to firm thought it may take some time to get into ground. Not sure what it is riding like yet – races gone to those expected to win/go well.

          Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


          • Abandoned Leicester.

            Someone should tell the live reporter for the Racing Post who’s still hitting his keyboard talking about horses when they aren’t gonna run. Plum.

            andy 9 months ago Reply


  • One of the ‘Horse Profile’ horses has just won. Fredricka 8/1 at Redcar. Only problem was he was in Class 4 and 2lb above ideal rating.
    So annoying when this happens.

    John Gorton 9 months ago Reply


    • yep, I don’t get that annoyed – not with horses you think are class droppers/ratings droppers on paper – that is how it goes – these sprinters can keep getting better for a while and she was with a new yard – so reasons why she may prove up to this level I suppose- the class stats were staking up thought – hope I suppose was that Barron would see that and plot her up – but, you don’t lose anything at least – but sadly her profile has just flown out the window!! That is the nature of this approach – irritating I suppose but not much you can do!

      Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


    • I backed it…..John….If a trainers on form…he overcomes sometimes…I’ve always followed Barron during this period.
      Some win some lose, but usually the odds make up for the losers.
      However I just missed Faheys in the 4.50 In my Place…..7/1…I changed my mind at the last moment and went for Ed Walkers…..from the TTP…… I could spit….lol

      Tony Mc. 9 months ago Reply


      • Yep, his stats at Redcar in the TTP are decent with all cappers here, and can see why you would have backed her – Barron’s stats under a mile, or whatever it was, were poor in previous Mays but he has fired in a few from memory and will go back and have a look. Glad someone was on! Well done. Ah – always go with first instinct! (and I have failed my own rule there a couple of times recently!)

        Josh Wright 9 months ago Reply


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