You can thank (hopefully in time) John G for giving me the polite kick up the backside to get researching some ‘profile horses’. So, that is what I have spent part of Friday doing. The below explains all and includes 11 ratings/class droppers to keep onside – and one who is 4/5,4 places over 5f at Kempton – but who hardly ever runs there – how ‘odd’ :)…
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES – 50/1 winner anyone..??
I have eased off the ‘asking you for money’ links on the posts in the last few weeks as, believe it or not, I don’t like badgering you too often! 🙂
But I had to mention my TTP guide after Gerry – a perpetual stats user and Tom Dascombe – Haydock-backer had a bet on his 50/1 winner there on Friday.
There are two sets of stats for Haydock that may have pointed you his way…
His general handicap stats before this season started:-
- Tom Dascombe: 85 bets / 15 wins / 26 places / 18% sr / +13 SP / +30 BFSP / AE 1.31
And, his record over the distance of that race…
Tom Dascombe/10-10.5f: 18 bets / 9 wins / 10 places / 50% sr / +36 SP / +45 BFSP / AE 2.73
Well, those stats are now improved! Gerry has also used these stats (well in truth I think he has always backed Dascombe ‘cappers at Haydock but you get the point!) to back winners of his at 16/1 and 8/1 in recent days.
Not bad, and that is from just two sets of stats. I know winners like that are rare, and I didn’t back him. (not one for spending any time on 3yo handicaps, should have looked at stats closer!) But, it can be a gold mine.
None today. No trends/stats big field ‘sprint’ handicaps (5-7f) to get stuck into and the 3m+ handicap chase at Cartmel hasn’t tempted me in.
May Trainer (16/1<)
3.30 Catt – Red Tycoon 3rd 12/1>6/1
4.45 Bev – Lawyer 2nd
6.05 Ffos Las – Cleeve Hill Lad (14/1<) DNQ
6.35 Ffos Las – Billeragh Milan (14/1<) DNQ
Meehan Maidens (any odds)
6.50 Salis – Malakky 3rd 14/1>7/1
Saturday TJC (any odds)
8.35 Ffos Las – In On The Act
A King Flat (16/1<)
4.35 Chest – Masterblueyes WON 6/1> 10/3
7.20 Salis – Oceane
Pam Sly Females (any odds)
2.00 Hayd – Ghinia UP
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
2.00 Hayd – Rousayan (12/1<) 3rd 10/1>7/1
2.50 Chest – Gabrials Kaka UP / Rene Mathis (both 12/1<) DNQ
3.25 Chest – Gabrials Star (12/1<) 2nd 13/2>4/1
4.40 Catt – Beardwood (16/1<) UP
5.10 Chest – Modernism (12/1<) UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
3.30 Catt- Personal Touch – 12/1 – NR as luck would have it he is a horse in the free report above and he drops into ‘his’ class band – C4<6k – where he is 3/5, 4 places. You can back Appleby’s ‘cappers blind here to success. The draw may not be ideal but wide drawn horses do win here over this trip. There looks to be plenty of pace and they may decide to drop him in – or try and get him out, across and in. Either way, he is at the right level, is on his last winning mark and it may not be long before he is troubling the judge again for new connections. His winning form was for two other trainers so always some caution there, and Appleby’s are a bit in and out – 2/33 last 14 days – so a few negatives, but the price is ok and I will have a go!
5.15 Catt – Solar Spirit – 25/1 – UP- All ability may have left this old veteran but at this price I couldn’t resist a nibble. This section will have a bumpy ride at times but hopefully you have seen from a couple of the winners to date, and the very close 22/1 second, that we will have some fun and fingers crossed come out in front over time. You don’t need many 16/1+ shots to go in to do well. This one is possibly on a career low mark and in any case is 10lb below his last winning mark. There were bits and pieces of form last year which suggested there was still some ability there. He is 3/11, 7 places in C5<3.5k, +22 SP and is 3/14,9 places over CD. The jockey has ridden him 5 times, placing on him twice. Quite a few in here are above their last winning mark albeit there are a few 4 year olds etc in here. The final piece of the puzzle is the fact the trainer has a green 14 next to her name, indicating she is in decent enough form – 2/9,3 places the last two weeks. That may rub off on him. It may be asking a lot for him to win this at his age but he is 25s.
No more today. Post Complete