Members Report: 28/05/2016 (COMPLETE)

 

You can thank (hopefully in time) John G for giving me the polite kick up the backside to get researching some ‘profile horses’. So, that is what I have spent part of Friday doing. The below explains all and includes 11 ratings/class droppers to keep onside – and one who is 4/5,4 places over 5f at Kempton – but who hardly ever runs there – how ‘odd’ :)… 

NEW REPORT: 12 FLAT HORSE PROFILES HERE>>>

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES 50/1 winner anyone..?? 

I have eased off the ‘asking you for money’ links on the posts in the last few weeks as, believe it or not, I don’t like badgering you too often! 🙂

But I had to mention my TTP guide after Gerry – a perpetual stats user and Tom Dascombe – Haydock-backer had a bet on his 50/1 winner there on Friday. 

There are two sets of stats for Haydock that may have pointed you his way…

His general handicap stats before this season started:-

  • Tom Dascombe: 85 bets / 15 wins / 26 places / 18% sr / +13 SP / +30 BFSP / AE 1.31

And, his record over the distance of that race…

  • Tom Dascombe/10-10.5f: 18 bets / 9 wins / 10 places / 50% sr / +36 SP / +45 BFSP / AE 2.73

Well, those stats are now improved! Gerry has also used these stats (well in truth I think he has always backed Dascombe ‘cappers at Haydock but you get the point!) to back winners of his at 16/1 and 8/1 in recent days. 

Not bad, and that is from just two sets of stats. I know winners like that are rare, and I didn’t back him. (not one for spending any time on 3yo handicaps, should have looked at stats closer!) But, it can be a gold mine. 

YOU CAN STILL GET A COPY, WITH 60 DAY MONEY BACK GURANTEE HERE>>>

 

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TIPS

None today. No trends/stats big field ‘sprint’ handicaps (5-7f) to get stuck into and the 3m+ handicap chase at Cartmel hasn’t tempted me in. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

May Trainer (16/1<) 

3.30 Catt – Red Tycoon 3rd 12/1>6/1

4.45 Bev – Lawyer 2nd

Jumps Handicappers

6.05 Ffos Las – Cleeve Hill Lad (14/1<) DNQ

6.35 Ffos Las – Billeragh Milan (14/1<) DNQ

Other

Meehan Maidens (any odds)

6.50 Salis – Malakky 3rd 14/1>7/1

Saturday TJC (any odds)

8.35 Ffos Las – In On The Act 

A King Flat (16/1<)

4.35 Chest – Masterblueyes WON 6/1> 10/3

7.20 Salis  – Oceane 

Pam Sly Females (any odds)

2.00 Hayd – Ghinia UP

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS

2.00 Hayd – Rousayan (12/1<) 3rd 10/1>7/1

2.50 Chest – Gabrials Kaka UP / Rene Mathis (both 12/1<) DNQ

3.25 Chest – Gabrials Star (12/1<) 2nd 13/2>4/1

4.40 Catt – Beardwood (16/1<) UP

5.10 Chest – Modernism (12/1<) UP

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

3.30 Catt- Personal Touch – 12/1 – NR as luck would have it he is a horse in the free report above and he drops into ‘his’ class band – C4<6k – where he is 3/5, 4 places. You can back Appleby’s ‘cappers blind here to success. The draw may not be ideal but wide drawn horses do win here over this trip. There looks to be plenty of pace and they may decide to drop him in – or try and get him out, across and in. Either way, he is at the right level, is on his last winning mark and it may not be long before he is troubling the judge again for new connections. His winning form was for two other trainers so always some caution there, and Appleby’s are a bit in and out – 2/33 last 14 days – so a few negatives, but the price is ok and I will have a go! 

 

5.15 Catt – Solar Spirit – 25/1 – UP- All ability may have left this old veteran but at this price I couldn’t resist a nibble. This section will have a bumpy ride at times but hopefully you have seen from a couple of the winners to date, and the very close 22/1 second, that we will have some fun and fingers crossed come out in front over time. You don’t need many 16/1+ shots to go in to do well. This one is possibly on a career low mark and in any case is 10lb below his last winning mark. There were bits and pieces of form last year which suggested there was still some ability there. He is 3/11, 7 places in C5<3.5k, +22 SP and is 3/14,9 places over CD. The jockey has ridden him 5 times, placing on him twice. Quite a few in here are above their last winning mark albeit there are a few 4 year olds etc in here. The final piece of the puzzle is the fact the trainer has a green 14 next to her name, indicating she is in decent enough form – 2/9,3 places the last two weeks. That may rub off on him. It may be asking a lot for him to win this at his age but he is 25s.

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No more today. Post Complete 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

46 Comments

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  • Josh

    Excellent work, some interesting facts and angles. Looking forward to having a few wheelbarrows on them. ROLL on THE JUMPS season.

    I have been watching with interest the COMBO for Fahey/ T Hamilton this flat season they have some good winners but also many. Would you be ablew to narrow the field down with this combo??. In your spare time..Lol.

    Mike Dennis 1 year ago Reply


    • Cheers Mike – have just updated, Mozzer alerted me to a typo – had to be one of course otherwise you wouldn’t know it was mine!! Link above has been refreshed – Ladweb, not Ladwed!

      I will add that to my system research list – I suggest there isn’t, bar the odd track angle that may be in my TTP report but unsure – problem with TJC you want a reason – ie being booked because it is ‘the time’ and/or a pair that do well at a certain track – combo of trainer doing well there, jockey riding course well, and trainer ensuring ‘main track rider’ is on when a good run expected. I would think they have so many there is no discernible/logical ‘way in’ but I will have a look, at some point!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Cheers Josh look forward to it .

        Mike Dennis 1 year ago Reply


  • Add Colourfilly to that tally at 6/1,will cover his 3 runners tomorrow

    gerry 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh, hope your good?

    Have you thought about a syndicate for Scoop6 tomorrow just £2.5 million,
    think we could all manage a place payout with the number of places we have.
    I realise the time it takes but you have the system to collect money.

    Grant 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Grant, I am very well thanks. That is something I should look at doing at some point but you hit the nail on the head – it is just a time and organisation thing and I would need to put some thought into it etc. I wont be doing anything for tomorrow. I am sure out collective commenting brains may be able to propose some ideas as to horses to through in.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Josh have been having a quick look at the ‘Horse Profiles’ and a couple of things caught my eye.
    BLUE SONIC is now with LINDA PERRATT and not Amanda Perrett.
    FREDRICKA. He could not run in a Class 5 as he was rated above 75 during his time with his last trainer.

    John Gorton 1 year ago Reply


    • HI John, Trainer down in HRB is Mrs L A Perratt – (which is Linda) have just put the e and not the a in! Fredricka – that was just a general point – knowing his record in C5 was just surprised trainer didn’t try and get his mark down and give it a go.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Does Personal Touch qualify at Catterick tomorrow. If he does the draw may be a bit off putting. Drawn 15 of 15. Think thats on wide outside.

    John Gorton 1 year ago Reply


    • Just getting to those, a couple have popped up from guide, about to look…

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • You say his highest winning mark is 77. He won off 79 on July 6 2015 at Ayr

    John Gorton 1 year ago Reply


    • Yep, that includes claims – he had a 5lb claimer on for that win off 79.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Blimey! Just havin a glance while the ENgland game peters out and see there is 17 selections and counting. I had noticed that you had started to fire a lot of arrows recently. Some followers that back everything for fear of missing the illusive dart that hits will need big banks. Just wondered what your own total stake will be tomorrow? As no doubt some readers will have lost a shed load today and now find themselves needing to spend big tomorrow. I’m sure one or two will go in tho, maybe your old mate rene mathis?

    Jim 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Jim…
      All of those bets, bar the Stats/Angles of Interest – are systems bets – the research has all been published over time – I will post the link up again next week – and how you decide to engage with them is up to you. They are not tips, they are systems bets – if a horse ticks the boxes against the rules of the system, it ticks the boxes and i post it up – there is no choice etc. Not a question of me deciding that today I wanted to fire a lot of arrows. The only choice is to decide whether i am following too many micro systems etc – you get days like this if you follow the systems – we have had quiet days in the week. Those kind of things i decide over time.
      Now, you can read the research and trust it – following the systems with smaller stakes, or not at all. You can use those system bets to help in your own thinking, you can ignore them, or you can back them all systematically.

      As I have said before the TTP main trainer systems are newly researched this year – the research is sound, but proof will be in the eating, when tested live. Which is what we are doing via the blog.

      And, you need separate banks for the different parts of the blog. If you follow all the systems then 100 points is probably wise now with introduction of TTP, if not more. Clearly I need to do more to explain aspects of the blog more regularly, which is fair enough. As always it is a long term game, you bet what you can afford and with systems very much a case of starting smaller and building up stakes over time, if that is what you want to do. It makes days like this manageable.

      As for my own punting I bet £20 per point on all tips – and usually on the Stats/Angles if interest selections also – and if a system bet qualifies I will back them systematically – usually 20 on the nose. So, I could well have around £340 laid out today. (a few of the system bets wont qualify on price) But, that is a decision I make etc based on my own approach, and clearly you may wish to leave certain bits etc. It is up to you. Good luck with whatever you do back!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • One bet on Jumps ttp al alfa at 15/2,top stuff josh

    gerry 1 year ago Reply


    • Good stuff Gerry, that summer research is paying off already! Bloody good ride it was too – one of his best maybe!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • 8.35 tonight Down Royal….Bosco Di Aloco…..I bet him this morning from my Irish System….but never put him up as it was a big field..and it shortened quickly….but point of this is….What a heart this horse has..Not overly large and was overtaken by a much bigger horse, but came storming back. It just wouldn’t give up. He’s down in my notebook… it was a 2 mile 7f hurdle. it’ll win something bigger than this.

    Tony Mc 1 year ago Reply


  • hi josh more than happy to donate for reports like your horse profiles there the sort of horses I like to find when looking at races to have some put up by you allows me to put them in the Geegeez tracker and wait tell they run the more the better I have found that these type of horses win and at decent prices when things are right for them im a member of ben Aitken BDH which does a similar sort of thing calling them handicap sleepers and they win not all of them but enough to know that its a profitable angle im sure some of them 12 will win at good prices there in the tracker and a donation is on its way

    antony church 1 year ago Reply


    • cheers Antony, appreciated. What works for you, works for me! I will try and find a few more of those next week also. Yep very much about treating them as a portfolio – it isnt a golden bullet – but we are in the profit game and hopefully over time they come out in front – we will know by the end of this season from those 12 anyway.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • personal touch from horse race profiles report running 3.30 catterick got is conditions class4 less than 6k 7f ground will suit and trainer does well at course 12/1 bet 365 worth a bit of interest

    antony church 1 year ago Reply


    • NR, shame

      the gambler 1 year ago Reply


  • Jimmy Moffat trainer change alert! 5/6, 6 places in past year

    Of Highland Lodge fame, JM has inherited Boruma who would ring a bell for us being a former Diane Sayer inmate. Runs first time for Jimmy in the 2.40 Cartmel

    Best odds 13/2

    Ali 1 year ago Reply


  • Orgenstown Lad at 16/1 5.00 cartmel worth a small bet considering trainer course form,and jockey knows way round here too

    gerry 1 year ago Reply


  • Looks like a Fahey day today, one of those Saturdays when he fires in 6-7-8- winners.

    Lots of his well handicapped and well drawn, too many runners incl multiple entries in some races to cover them all but may be worth some small unit accumulators.

    Ian 1 year ago Reply


    • 20/1 Fahey for starters, SCOFFED it.

      Mike Dennis 1 year ago Reply


  • Personal Touch a non runner. Going. How can Good going be unsuitable.
    More like they didnt like the wide draw.

    John Gorton 1 year ago Reply


    • going gone good to good to firm but like you said draw might be a factor as well wait for anther day quite like Breton rock today at haydock 3.10 decent form LTO T/J do well together far to many meetings on one day they should spread them over the weekend not cram them in all on one day

      antony church 1 year ago Reply


  • Jim (see above) is right, it is not possible for me to follow all of those selections and sods law states that the ones left out will win, so probably best for me not to bet at all. What is more pertinent though, is UK Racing on Saturdays. I have just stared blankly at all the meetings today and it is clear that apart from the Courses, the Bookmakers will be rubbing their hands with glee. Even if you ignore the Jump meetings, there are five flat cards loaded with minefields. It is impossible to keep up with what is going on any more. I shall record the Racing UK replay overnight which will be at least three hours long. To do justice in carrying out a review of those races you can add another two hours probably. Saturday is always a dangerous day to be betting and I now realize (for me at least) a day to watch and enjoy the racing and try and find a few horses to note for the future. How many times can you be gelded?

    Richard Sutton 1 year ago Reply


  • Have to agree, far too many selections. I am happier staying evens with no bets from the selections. I realise they are ‘focused tips’ and not forced to gamble but the risk of unbacked winners etc is too unappealing.
    JOURNEY, GIFTED MASTER DBL at HAYDOCK 6/1, that shall be my fun/misery for the day

    The Gambler 1 year ago Reply


  • Best thing Richard is go race by race on the selections,On Red Tycoon Phil Dennis is 0-29 at catterick so maybe one to leave alone,With Lawyer Gibbons is in good form and is profitable for BarronBridgewatr bit in and out all season so hard to gauge,as for Fahey and O Meara its a case of which one of them will win

    gerry 1 year ago Reply


  • With regard to Saturdays, yes more racing can mean more bets. There may be a bigger downside, but there’s the same the other way also. It’s not surprising that I’ve had my worst days on Saturdays, but I remember the very good days I’ve had even more. If I’m still doing the same as I do every day – and I confess that I don’t follow all the systems here religiously – I don’t expect a different outcome except in scale. As an aside, I follow a few tipsters and that means I can have a number of bets on different runners in the big Saturday races and a hefty liability (especially if Josh puts up three in a sprint!)…but if I’m happy with the services I just go with it.
    Good luck today, everyone.
    Paul

    Paul 1 year ago Reply


    • more towards the worst, than the best lol

      Paul 1 year ago Reply


  • I agree with the amount of racing in one day makes betting a lottery.

    My DBL for today is Surewecan 3.30 Cat, & Gambit 4.55Hay.

    I like the idea of a scoop6 with all the knowledge of you guys and Josh’s software, Tap Tap BOOM.

    Mike Dennis 1 year ago Reply


  • Firstly, over the cliff at big odds one last time; 3.10 HP Johnny Barnes and 7.20 Salisbury Doesyourdogbite. Both at 25/1!

    I also like La Rioja, 3.45 HP. Home of the Brave has his first run for the Sheikh in the 3.10 HP.

    If I hear anything I will post again.

    Martin Colwell 1 year ago Reply


  • If i had to take one from the list at the top it would be BEARDWOOD 4.40 catt Being by Dutch Art you would think he should handle softer going, but his best form has been on good or faster.Down to a winnable mark and first run for trainer brian Ellison (Usually sharpens them up).I’d be more confident with a better draw,but 1st run on the better ground over the extra furlong and being in form gives him a good chance at 6/1

    mozzer 1 year ago Reply


    • Just watched the replay of the race Beardwood was finishing the best, and may be i need of another furlong under the same conditions.

      mozzer 1 year ago Reply


  • I like Gunnery, 4.35 Chester. Any thoughts? I also here a good word for Zayfire Aramis in the 6.35 at FL, win at 3/1.

    Martin Colwell 1 year ago Reply


    • Cheers Martin…followed you in on ZA

      Paul 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Martin….forgot to mention, ZA’s trainer…gives his thoughts on his horses on a site….I usually watch to see if it shortens, but I notice it’s drifting…so I don’t think he’s put it up…..so I may just watch…but thanks anyway…..I’m more tempted now that it’s drifting…lol Cheers.

      Tony Mc 1 year ago Reply


      • Not much effort went into that ride

        JV 1 year ago Reply


  • tto watch Starchitect 7:20 SALISBURY

    Pab 1 year ago Reply


  • Gunnery is one of only two who have won at the distance and was a beaten Fav last time out.
    has won on the going…like Stoutes…a teaser…. price a bit short now…3s

    Tony Mc 1 year ago Reply


  • I thnk its time to note the Midgley runners in sprints almost June and the winners are starting to flow….Fuel Injection just gone in at Catterick 877 last three runs

    Steve 1 year ago Reply


  • Well done Josh I know you did not give it as a selection I had to have a bet on Fuel Injection @ 12.1. Hoping for a good June with P. Midgley and R. Carr.

    Roy Bedford 1 year ago Reply


    • Well done Roy..well part of my job is to provide info etc for you to interpret..by his standards he has had a good may with the same system rules,3 winners now..could point to a good June and probably worth backing from now on really. I didn’t back him but pleased you did,good stuff.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Delayed 4.45 at Beverley Save the Bees looks a tad big at 16.00 on Betfair drawn 3 sure to lead 5lb lower than last win
    downside no blinkers and wins in the main july but had to have a nibble

    Steve 1 year ago Reply


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