Well there is no room for a pity party in this tough game of ours and there will be many more races like that chase at Bangor where the main danger horse, discarded and not tipped, goes on to win. That is two races in a row now and it is the most frustrating aspect of racing and ‘tipping’. Seeing a horse drop out the back of the TV is just disheartening, seeing a shortlisted horse romp to victory is just bloody annoying. But, that’s part of the game.
Of course it is easier when you are in the middle of a purple patch but harder when you are in the middle of a ‘could do better’ period. I am reading the races fine, no problems on that front – I think that is possibly the best write up I have given to a horse I haven’t tipped – which says it all I suppose! I know some of you used that to back him, so well done. For someone who likes that type of ‘profiling’ it is arguably treachery that I left him, on reflection.(easy to say after they have won of course) Anyway, I won’t say that won’t happen again – it will – but it would be nice to be getting it right a few more times than has been the case recently. We move on, undeterred. What a puzzle.
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VIDEO: How I Use Geegeez Gold Part 2
The below video is a bit shorter – albeit still nearly 30 mins – and looks at the ‘stats’ aspect of how I help compile these blog posts. I go through most of the brilliant reports with an eye on Friday’s racing. It is probably worth watching with your notepad as something may well catch your eye! Enjoy…
YOU CAN TRIAL GEEGEEZ GOLD FOR TWO WEEKS HERE>>>
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UPDATED/COMPLETED JUNE TRAINER POST…
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TIPS
No tips today.
MICRO SYSTEMS
IMPORTANT: I have had a quick review of the Jumps Handicappers.
You can find this report HERE>>>
I have put a couple of the trainers ‘under review’ and I will continue to highlight their qualifiers, but with that caveat. If you bet on the Jumps Handicappers that above report is worth a flick through.
May Trainer (16/1<)
7.00 Ponte – Chillworth Bells UP 11/1>6/1
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
Haydock (all 12/1<)
3.10 – Mon Beau Visage DNQ
3.40 – Nonchalant UP (traveled really well – is he just a monkey??)
5.10 – Flyboy – DNQ (WON 16/1 – Sods Law – last three seasons,before this, O’Meara’s handicappers going off over 12/1 were 0/31, 1 place here – and we have avoided plenty of his bigger priced losers already this season for some of his other tracks/systems. That is how things go with odds based systems. Hopefully some of you may have had a nibble but clearly he won’t be recorded in results)
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4.50 Bright – George Baker (any odds) UP
7.40 Muss – Paddy Power (any odds) 3rd 9/2
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
6.30 Ponte – Talent Scout – 12/1 – UP 15/2 – this one stands out on the instant expert tab with a nice line of amber across all race conditions – with many in here with the odd question. He is now 11lb below his last winning mark and although he hasn’t won for a while he last run was eye catching – he blasted off at what to my eye looked a ferocious pace over 7f – he faded but kept plugging on, suggesting a horse coming into form. Pace is the other part of the jigsaw here – he is drawn in 2 and on recent runs is the only out and out front runner in the race. If Gemma can dictate on him, and play catch me if you can, he could well get away on the front end here – he does like to fight back if headed also and isn’t usually one to fold easily and I think he should be thereabouts at the death. He is 2/9,3 places over CD in handicaps and could outrun his odds. If not today, he is getting to the point where his turn may not be far away and is one to track I think. Some market support would be welcome as all wins have come when 8/1 or shorter. Oh, and the trainer is in decent enough nick from limited runners – 2/8 last 30 days, 1/4 last two weeks.
8.50 Worc – Orsm 16/1 | Kilrush 33/1 … a couple of big pokes in this race with preference for the former.
Orsm…If you watch the video above it may be clear why he is worth a small dabble. Firstly the trainer/jockey do well when teaming up in handicaps here – 4/13, 6 places for near enough 50 points to SP. The trainer is also in form – one of the few in really good nick in the race – 3/11 past 14 days – I am not sure if that includes today’s AW winner or not. But, in general, they are going well. Then there is the horse. Well he is back down to his last winning mark and 6 runs ago came a close enough second at Fontwell off OR95. He is only 1/17 over hurdles but has won over further at Plumton and ran well at Fontwell over further. He won’t be found wanting for stamina. He is also 1/2 in May and must go LH it would appear. Then there is his last run, after a break over an inadequate trip, where he went well for a very long way and kept on fighting up the hill – with fitness and/or lack of pace finding him out. If he comes on for that run we could have some fun with him here. There is a chance he could lead all the way.
Kilrush…is even more of a poke but as you can also see in the video, in terms of his suitability for conditions he is a stand out. If he were still trained by Mulholland he would be much shorter here. Until his last run he hadn’t shown much for connections which may have been ground related, having also dabbled with chasing. All ability may have gone but there were signs of something last time out. He is a CD winner and will like the ground. He is also very well handicapped. That CD win here for his last trainer was off OR98 – with the jockey claim he runs off OR83 here. He also came a neck second off 110 as well. So, there are reasons why he could out-run these odds. Of course he could be devoid of any ability and will be tailed off. But, if he is going to show anything for these connections, it will be in a race of this nature in these conditions. He doesn’t tick the box of having a few things go for him (Orsm has profile/hncp mark, TJ Combo and trainer form) but he is a massive price.
9.10 Muss – Nelson’s Bay – 20/1 – this price seems a bit big for a horse who has in effect won off 57, comes here off 52 with the claim and quite simply really enjoys this CD – 2/6, 4 places in handicaps, 5/9 win or place in all races here. He has also won at C5 and comes here on the back of a reasonable return to action LTO where he ran well enough – not tailed off in any case. The jockey is worth her claim and is in cracking form 3/11 last 30 days. There are quite a few in here who have never won over 8f, from quite a few goes. There are two concerns – namely the pace – there doesn’t appear much on paper and that may not suit this hold up horse – albeit he responds to pressure and may just need to get going earlier than usual. Falsely run races can produce strange results also. There is then the fav who is 8lb well in and if he repeats his last run should win. As such I have backed this one EW, but as always you can do as you please – including leaving well alone! 20s just felt a bit too big, esp given his course record.
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That is all for today.Post complete – signing off 08.54 – I am off to do some ‘Horse Profile Research’, stare out the window some more as I wonder why I didn’t tip Dreams Of Theatre – while banging the table – look ahead to tomorrow, write a ‘trainer in focus’ article for Betting Insiders Club’ and start to pull together some notes for Epsom. And I still have the ‘AW Summer TTP’ to do – I haven’t forgotten, it just keeps finding itself at the bottom of my list.
40 Responses
Hi Josh,
Many thanks for the videos. I was thinking of getting it next week but you convinced me to get it yesterday and using the Instant Expert helped me pick out Chevelier in the finale at Sandown today and low and behold that’s the year paid for.
I almost never bet in 3yr old conditional races but Cliffs of Dover should be considerably better than anything in the 16:30 at Bath. Winner of his last race has since won twice including a class 2 off a 16 higher mark. The 3rd has won a listed Fillies race. I think he should improve for the run also. The only slight doubt is the extra distance however given his breeding I think he will. Charlie Hills is 5/15, 7 places in non-handicaps at the track in the past 2 years and is in good form.
I also like Rosina (Musselburgh 19:40) which has been racing in Listed company and steps down in class considerably. Seems to have all the right conditions (top of the Geegeez shortlist). Trainer has had 3 winners from her last 7 runners.
I agree with you that Orsm is a cracking bet.
Regards,
Nick
Hi Nick, no problem, glad you enjoyed them. I think you will enjoy your time with Geegeez Gold. Also the stat of the day tips- and while you may not wish to back them all blind every day (I still do, 1 point on nose, and over time have done very well) you can get plenty just from reading the excellent write ups- gets the brain thinking.
Yep, still wondering why I didn’t back Chevalier – had HC blinkers on (was always having a nibble, should have had saver on him given IE profile, course form and trainer form -a potent mix – and his price) Well done for backing him.
Good luck with your others today, I will have a look. Solid reasoning as always.
Hopefully one of those 4 can go in – would be a nice start to the weekend!
Josh
9.10 muss ADVENTUREMAN Has a simular profile to josh’s Kilrush .If this horse can get his act together.He could go very close in this weakish class 6 h/cap.Has posted an RPR of 70 over this c/d last year with same conditions.Ruth is trying cheekpeices on him to help him focus as he can be a bit of a devil (races very keen) (hanging) etc at 14/1 could be worth dabble.
Good luck Mozzer- Ruth will get wins out of him and maybe that day is today but I was put off by fact he is 0/15 in his life now and is becoming disappointing – albeit still time on his side- may be a slow developing horse. We may well end up backing him next month as a June trainer bet – If he is keen here maybe they will try dropping him in trip and just trying to gun it from the front! A winner over 7f next month maybe! But, today may be the day – solid reasons as you say.
well done mozzer, def worth a dabble, hope you had plenty on!
Just looking at the sports car website now lol
Nice winner, I am tracking Mrs Carr and she will find winners amongst the losers. Hope you were on.
In the 2.30 at Bath, three horses from the Hot Race of 26/4 there are running. They are in fact three of the first four from that race and there was a gap of six lengths back to the fifth horse. Next time out, all three were run over different distances with Marcano and Knight Of The Air running over seven furlongs at Salisbury. That race was won by Duke Of North and he happened to have finished sixth in the 26/4 race (but he seems better over 7f). Today the conditions are the same as in the 26/4 contest (one mile) and provided the fav’ does not get in the way, there is the chance of a tasty tricast by combining the three. The prices range from 117/1 to 145/1. It does look like Saint Helena is a bit quirky and less reliable than the other two so maybe a R/F on those two as well may be rewarding. Then there is the decision whether to back them as singles? I will probably end up with egg on my face but as the potential outweighs the prices on offer at B365, I thought I would put it up on the blog.
Top work there?? You have the FC? Singles?
Josh how are the ‘Horse Profiles’ going.
ah yes. I have started at last! Have blocked out a few hours next week to have a good dive in again – however, my focus will be on the ratings/class dropper – and my new approach to Stats/Angles section should help highlight a few more of those. In truth it is just time – and I appear to be struggling to fit in the research! I will endeavor to do an hour or two today.
Much like I need to start my NH research earlier, during the Flat season, the same with any Flat Profiles. With any luck by end of next week I will have a few to share.
Here you go John, 12 to kick things off with…
http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Flat-Horse-Profiles-2016.pdf
i Believe slight typo error on profile horse You have Ladwed i think it should be ladweb.
ah well there had to be one didn’t there – always in a rush! Cheers
http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Flat-Horse-Profiles-2016-1.pdf
Lots of races today but I think a lot to leave alone – being 3 year old handicaps and 8 runner races where you just know at least one is going to come out.
I always like 2-3 day meetings as you can get a form/going/draw angle so my chosen race today is the 3.10 at Haydock, it is a 3yo handicap but on the draw bias I feel suiting low I will have a small each way poke on Mon Beau Visage (noted above) and Gowanless who needed season debut an comes here off a potentially lenient rating.
Consider too, Alizoom R Varian, needs this return to 6f; drops in class and stable do well here, drawn the wrong side by your reckoning but 20/1.
Yup 2 NR’s so far 9.13 – I went for War Department, more squiggles than ticks but ran a stonking fast time first time out last year & is fresh again, last chance saloon but 20/s & more money for Dascombe’s Dutch Gallery & yeh Alizoom is up there on my figs, race getting cut-up now though.
3 nr’s now so that’s the 4 places gone…….actually in old money…..stall 17 has a 22% win rate from that draw. mmm?
420 Bri – just about best cdg of the day, Mick Channon’s Highlife Dancer, only runner of the meet & he’s on the monthly list….
Josh,
When you get around to looking at TTP for the Summer All Weather, forget about Southwell as the next meeting is not until November for some bizarre reason. I think the last one was in April so a long while between meetings.
Thanks Richard, I will bear that in mind – it is only 3-4 hours work, just fitting it it! Will be done by end of next week. Maybe that is the influence of Newcastle, reducing meetings – they also have a lot of summer jumps but that does seem odd.
I am sure I read somewhere (will try to find it) that they are planning some remedial work on the AW track but also been asked to lend support to a couple of Arc venues elsewhere this summer, I think Yarmouth and Newcastle from memory,
Hi Everyone,
Just got back from shopping the electric been off here all dayWould like to thank all the good people who give their time and many good tips and stats and thanks to Josh putting it all together, for me the last 2 weeks, just seem to be treading water and it does seem strange all of the N/R. I missed the last good winners Josh highlighted at good prices was 30 minutes too late. Only matter time before the winners return and winning seems easy; marathon not a sprint. I guess I am like most of us sometimes too many bets. Going to concentrate on the main tips and the two June trainers mentioned by Josh.
Good stuff Roy… yep, treading water a bit, but not drowning which is the important thing!! The ‘stats/angles’ of interest section, with my modified is showing some promise after a good start – and we shall see how that develops over time! If one of those above goes in that would be nice. All about the marathon.
Anyone catch TIME TEST in the 1940 last night. Came from the back of the pack to win by a neck. Got a few quid back for it.
Few movers in the market
Against the odds 400 Bath, however gone for MAWAANY
Also like DREAM OF DREAMS HAYDOCK 1440
Cannot resist a few doubles/trebles too- monks stand, masterpaver, nags wag
To a good one team RTP!
good shout richard tasty little forecast there in the 2.30, shame the channon horse didnt run its race for the tri cast, nice to collect though!
Thanks GB, glad you made a profit.
50/1 winner following Tom Dascombe at Haydock
Ah trusty Tom, improves his stats over 10-10.5f there also – profit levels suggested the odd biggie went in!! Wallop. Easy with TTP eh? (cant say I had anything on mind – 3yo handicap so I somewhat looked straight past that race! Thought you may have been on)
I have been backing his horses at haydock for past few years but remember dismissing a 33/1 and 25/1 winner last year,going for the shorter priced one,I basically carpet bomb his runners 16/1 winner last sat 8/1 ysterday
Yep, well if you don’t care for SR – albeit still a decent 18% with all ‘normal handicapper’ he is profitable, and you have had a good time of it recently. Well ahead! Well done. Sometimes just trust the stats – horse form doesnt matter – albeit in hindsight he was doing two things differently – having just looked – hood was off and a massive step up in trip – so not a fall of your seat shocked that he improved, given the ‘doing something different’ theory, and only 3 as well. Another where a look at that race before it was run, with that mindset, and my stats – would have been welcome!!
My video of race bombed just as he was flying home so i missed the last furlong
I didn’t miss their final winner of the day! Couldn’t leave her after missing the 50s one!
Flyboy, incredible. Nosed it!
You have a go? Not an official qualifier but that’s how things go every now and then for us odds based systems folk.
yes, had 10ew. Good viewing, always better when there is a winner of course
Was never in doubt! Ha 🙂 well done
Nice one mozzer…it pulled me out of the proverbial……..got 25s
Duh..wrong..i got 16s…not moaning though…I thought I had 25s….