Well there is no room for a pity party in this tough game of ours and there will be many more races like that chase at Bangor where the main danger horse, discarded and not tipped, goes on to win. That is two races in a row now and it is the most frustrating aspect of racing and ‘tipping’. Seeing a horse drop out the back of the TV is just disheartening, seeing a shortlisted horse romp to victory is just bloody annoying. But, that’s part of the game.
Of course it is easier when you are in the middle of a purple patch but harder when you are in the middle of a ‘could do better’ period. I am reading the races fine, no problems on that front – I think that is possibly the best write up I have given to a horse I haven’t tipped – which says it all I suppose! I know some of you used that to back him, so well done. For someone who likes that type of ‘profiling’ it is arguably treachery that I left him, on reflection.(easy to say after they have won of course) Anyway, I won’t say that won’t happen again – it will – but it would be nice to be getting it right a few more times than has been the case recently. We move on, undeterred. What a puzzle.
VIDEO: How I Use Geegeez Gold Part 2
The below video is a bit shorter – albeit still nearly 30 mins – and looks at the ‘stats’ aspect of how I help compile these blog posts. I go through most of the brilliant reports with an eye on Friday’s racing. It is probably worth watching with your notepad as something may well catch your eye! Enjoy…
UPDATED/COMPLETED JUNE TRAINER POST…
No tips today.
IMPORTANT: I have had a quick review of the Jumps Handicappers.
I have put a couple of the trainers ‘under review’ and I will continue to highlight their qualifiers, but with that caveat. If you bet on the Jumps Handicappers that above report is worth a flick through.
May Trainer (16/1<)
7.00 Ponte – Chillworth Bells UP 11/1>6/1
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
Haydock (all 12/1<)
3.10 – Mon Beau Visage DNQ
3.40 – Nonchalant UP (traveled really well – is he just a monkey??)
5.10 – Flyboy – DNQ (WON 16/1 – Sods Law – last three seasons,before this, O’Meara’s handicappers going off over 12/1 were 0/31, 1 place here – and we have avoided plenty of his bigger priced losers already this season for some of his other tracks/systems. That is how things go with odds based systems. Hopefully some of you may have had a nibble but clearly he won’t be recorded in results)
4.50 Bright – George Baker (any odds) UP
7.40 Muss – Paddy Power (any odds) 3rd 9/2
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
6.30 Ponte – Talent Scout – 12/1 – UP 15/2 – this one stands out on the instant expert tab with a nice line of amber across all race conditions – with many in here with the odd question. He is now 11lb below his last winning mark and although he hasn’t won for a while he last run was eye catching – he blasted off at what to my eye looked a ferocious pace over 7f – he faded but kept plugging on, suggesting a horse coming into form. Pace is the other part of the jigsaw here – he is drawn in 2 and on recent runs is the only out and out front runner in the race. If Gemma can dictate on him, and play catch me if you can, he could well get away on the front end here – he does like to fight back if headed also and isn’t usually one to fold easily and I think he should be thereabouts at the death. He is 2/9,3 places over CD in handicaps and could outrun his odds. If not today, he is getting to the point where his turn may not be far away and is one to track I think. Some market support would be welcome as all wins have come when 8/1 or shorter. Oh, and the trainer is in decent enough nick from limited runners – 2/8 last 30 days, 1/4 last two weeks.
8.50 Worc – Orsm 16/1 | Kilrush 33/1 … a couple of big pokes in this race with preference for the former.
Orsm…If you watch the video above it may be clear why he is worth a small dabble. Firstly the trainer/jockey do well when teaming up in handicaps here – 4/13, 6 places for near enough 50 points to SP. The trainer is also in form – one of the few in really good nick in the race – 3/11 past 14 days – I am not sure if that includes today’s AW winner or not. But, in general, they are going well. Then there is the horse. Well he is back down to his last winning mark and 6 runs ago came a close enough second at Fontwell off OR95. He is only 1/17 over hurdles but has won over further at Plumton and ran well at Fontwell over further. He won’t be found wanting for stamina. He is also 1/2 in May and must go LH it would appear. Then there is his last run, after a break over an inadequate trip, where he went well for a very long way and kept on fighting up the hill – with fitness and/or lack of pace finding him out. If he comes on for that run we could have some fun with him here. There is a chance he could lead all the way.
Kilrush…is even more of a poke but as you can also see in the video, in terms of his suitability for conditions he is a stand out. If he were still trained by Mulholland he would be much shorter here. Until his last run he hadn’t shown much for connections which may have been ground related, having also dabbled with chasing. All ability may have gone but there were signs of something last time out. He is a CD winner and will like the ground. He is also very well handicapped. That CD win here for his last trainer was off OR98 – with the jockey claim he runs off OR83 here. He also came a neck second off 110 as well. So, there are reasons why he could out-run these odds. Of course he could be devoid of any ability and will be tailed off. But, if he is going to show anything for these connections, it will be in a race of this nature in these conditions. He doesn’t tick the box of having a few things go for him (Orsm has profile/hncp mark, TJ Combo and trainer form) but he is a massive price.
9.10 Muss – Nelson’s Bay – 20/1 – this price seems a bit big for a horse who has in effect won off 57, comes here off 52 with the claim and quite simply really enjoys this CD – 2/6, 4 places in handicaps, 5/9 win or place in all races here. He has also won at C5 and comes here on the back of a reasonable return to action LTO where he ran well enough – not tailed off in any case. The jockey is worth her claim and is in cracking form 3/11 last 30 days. There are quite a few in here who have never won over 8f, from quite a few goes. There are two concerns – namely the pace – there doesn’t appear much on paper and that may not suit this hold up horse – albeit he responds to pressure and may just need to get going earlier than usual. Falsely run races can produce strange results also. There is then the fav who is 8lb well in and if he repeats his last run should win. As such I have backed this one EW, but as always you can do as you please – including leaving well alone! 20s just felt a bit too big, esp given his course record.
That is all for today.Post complete – signing off 08.54 – I am off to do some ‘Horse Profile Research’, stare out the window some more as I wonder why I didn’t tip Dreams Of Theatre – while banging the table – look ahead to tomorrow, write a ‘trainer in focus’ article for Betting Insiders Club’ and start to pull together some notes for Epsom. And I still have the ‘AW Summer TTP’ to do – I haven’t forgotten, it just keeps finding itself at the bottom of my list.