How I Research Stats/Angles of Interest Horses: Part 1
Wednesday afternoon I recorded a video – stage 1 of how I use Geegez Gold to research part of the daily blog posts – in part it explains how I use the Geegeez Gold Cards while exploring their functionality etc.
Some of you may wish to give ‘Gold’ a go, and you can do so at the link below the video, if you so wish.
It is a bit lengthy but the time will fly by! And you can dip in and out at your convenience. Even if you have no interest in knowing more about Geegeez Gold you will get something from it I hope….
NEW POST BELOW…
Strumble Head – 1 point win – 11/2 (general) UP 4/1
Be On Time – 1/2 point win – 10/1 -11/1 (general) PU 14/1
Update: The ‘oh Bollocks’ horse did indeed romp to victory. Positives and negatives in equal measure to take from that race/my analysis/my final decision making. What a torturous game this can be sometimes!
Strumble Head – This feels like a race that Strumble Head could walk away with – leading all the way from the front and not seeing another rival. As I was researching the line of blue on odds checker was getting deeper and, although it is still early enough, given he is 4/6 when 4/1 or shorter, that may be significant. He has a few things in his favour here – 6s was fair enough, but that vanished as I was posting. As I write (8.32) 11/2 is still around with a couple of the big boys. All race conditions are fine and he drops into a C4 here off a very low weight. The firmer the ground the better his chance and you can’t help note his handicap mark – he has won off 111 (highest when ignoring claims) and comes here off 107 today. 6 starts ago, over CD, in a C3 he chased home Gold Futures off an 8lb higher mark, beaten under 4L. So, all is fine on that front. I noted him actually when he returned at Ffos Las. He seemed to travel well for a long way there, on far from ideal ground and probably needing the run. He was big odds LTO at Ludlow and I am not convinced he was there to do anything, bar hope the handicapper dropped him some more – which he was kind enough to do.
The visor also returns – he is a tricky customer, or can be – and it looks like any change of headgear can spark him up a bit – the Bowen’s like the Visor and if Al Co is an example, they know when to apply it! The trainer is also in form as he usually is at this time of year – 3/10,5 places last 14 days. And the final piece of the jigsaw is pace – He doesn’t have to lead but can do and there is every chance he is bumped out to lead here. He stays further and if he gets into a rhythm and is travelling – given his mark, ability, and light weight – he could take some catching. The Curtis horse may try and be up there also, but hopefully SH can see him off.
Be On Time – this is more of a poke but I found it hard to resist a nibble just because he brings something different to the party. Unlike most of these he is young and still in the ‘could be anything’ category. When I say that clearly I don’t mean he could be a Gold Cup horse, but in time he could be better than his mark, and race at a higher level. He is only 5 and won on his stable debut, after a break, last October. His subsequent runs were underwhelming but for the latter two he may have hated the headgear. They step him up in trip which I thought interesting – he is half brother to a 2m7f chaser – and the trainer couldn’t be in much better form. The market may well guide but I thought he was worth a play in this.
Of the rest…
Well Dreamsoftheatre WON is the ‘oh boll***s’ horse if he romps home but he looks a bit out of sorts for me and they reach for headgear – not as some kind of plot or plan- but I would think as a ‘lets try this’ approach. It may well work, it needs to. If you were to ignore his recent lackluster efforts you could make a compelling case – He is 3/3 in C4 handicaps (all), 3/4 in this ratigs band, 111-120 (albeit with jockey claim he was in that LTO), he is a CD winner and is 2/2 under Dickie. But, he does tend to peak later in the year, he is out of form, the trainer is hot and cold (3/55 last 30 days) and thankfully, he looks weak in the market – he is 0/15,2 places when going off at 13/2 or bigger – if he does go off at 6/1 or shorter I would start to get more concerned. A return to form would not be a shock however. (update – he drifted to 8s, but ‘someone’ appears to be having a right old go at him, unless tipped somewhere, into 4s in places,will be interesting if he drifts nearer race or comes in again)
Of the rest, well the favourite has a favourites chance but 2s was short enough for a 13 YO – I watched his last race, which he should have won, but for making an error at the second last and was always on the back foot. This step up in trip may help and his stamina is assured – but 2s is short and you have to take that type on really. I wasn’t jumping up to back any of the others albeit there are reasons why another victor would not be a big surprise. But, the likes of Buck Mulligan and Velator, while having the form to win this, just look really out of sorts. Relentless Dreamer needs the change of headgear to work (it might) and while he is unexposed, does need to show more for me.
So, hopefully Strumble Head can lead them all the way and if he falters the Snowden horse picks up the pieces. It should be a fun watch, in any case!
Nope, leaving this one alone for tipping purposes. It just looks a bit too much of a puzzle and with no trends to help, and having had a brief look I don’t think there will be many that can be easily crossed out – or to put it another way, there are 7 last time out winners,(nearly half the field) most of whom could have more to come – the race is packed full of 4+5 year olds and a few having 2nd/3rd runs of season – it would be trying to find a bet for the sake of it and that is unwise. Mass Rally will laugh at an opposition like this one day but you have to take some leap of faith and he must be many a punters ultimate cliff horse – he may well bolt up today, does have pace to aim at and the hood returns. But as I said there are a few in here whose improvement may not be done with yet. Happy to sit out and watch with the notepad.
The going is also tricky. I don’t think you can trust Haydock’s going – one of the worst possibly – and there are potential showers. It is meant to be good, but knowing that place a shower may turn it to soft! ‘officially’ or unofficially!
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
3.00 Hayd – Signore Piccolo (12/1<) * UP
*apologies, system wasn’t saved in HRB with ‘2016’ in category, and as such didn’t come up originally. This is first potential qualifier of 2016.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
8.45 Sandown – Highland Colori – 20/1 – I may be going mad here but this ones price just jumps out and when I think of the level he can achieve and what he is doing differently, I just couldn’t resist. As you will see in the video above I had a look at this race and this one caught the eye – simply because of his mark – he has won off 111 and comes here off 95. That 111 was not a handicap but you only have to look back to last season’s Ayr Gold Cup to see some decent form – beaten less than 2 lengths off 103. He has 8lb less on his back here. A few other things caught the eye – He drops from class 2 -he is 4/8 in C3, 2/3 in C3 handicaps. 3/6,4 places in May in handicaps. Previous C2 winner. Now, for the more interesting points…he goes back up to 8f here, and he hardly ever runs at that trip. But, on the 31st May 2012 he ran here, at Sandown, over CD- and won, in a C3. It could be now, at his ageing years, that he needs a bit further. Past form suggests there is some stamina there. He also gets headgear for the first time in his life- sporting a visor for the first time here. That could make the difference. If he can get out and race prominently we could have some fun. The trainer is a bit in and out and of course he could just not be firing at the moment. But, there are plenty of reasons why a return to form would not totally shock you, and at 20/1 I found it hard to resist a nibble to find out!
Possibly more to follow. I was making an excellent case for King Of Paradise in the 4.30 Haydock, who I expect will try and lead them all a merry dance. He appears to have plenty in his favour. But, he has been well found at around 7/2 (albeit market not yet fully formed) and that feels about right. You may think that is a good price though!
That is all for today. Post Complete