How I Research Stats/Angles of Interest Horses: Part 1
Wednesday afternoon I recorded a video – stage 1 of how I use Geegez Gold to research part of the daily blog posts – in part it explains how I use the Geegeez Gold Cards while exploring their functionality etc.
Some of you may wish to give ‘Gold’ a go, and you can do so at the link below the video, if you so wish.
It is a bit lengthy but the time will fly by! And you can dip in and out at your convenience. Even if you have no interest in knowing more about Geegeez Gold you will get something from it I hope….
YOU CAN TRIAL GEEGEEZ GOLD FOR TWO WEEKS HERE>>>
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NEW POST BELOW…
JUNE TRAINERS PART 1 – HERE>>>
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TIPS
3.10 Bangor
Strumble Head – 1 point win – 11/2 (general) UP 4/1
Be On Time – 1/2 point win – 10/1 -11/1 (general) PU 14/1
Update: The ‘oh Bollocks’ horse did indeed romp to victory. Positives and negatives in equal measure to take from that race/my analysis/my final decision making. What a torturous game this can be sometimes!
Strumble Head – This feels like a race that Strumble Head could walk away with – leading all the way from the front and not seeing another rival. As I was researching the line of blue on odds checker was getting deeper and, although it is still early enough, given he is 4/6 when 4/1 or shorter, that may be significant. He has a few things in his favour here – 6s was fair enough, but that vanished as I was posting. As I write (8.32) 11/2 is still around with a couple of the big boys. All race conditions are fine and he drops into a C4 here off a very low weight. The firmer the ground the better his chance and you can’t help note his handicap mark – he has won off 111 (highest when ignoring claims) and comes here off 107 today. 6 starts ago, over CD, in a C3 he chased home Gold Futures off an 8lb higher mark, beaten under 4L. So, all is fine on that front. I noted him actually when he returned at Ffos Las. He seemed to travel well for a long way there, on far from ideal ground and probably needing the run. He was big odds LTO at Ludlow and I am not convinced he was there to do anything, bar hope the handicapper dropped him some more – which he was kind enough to do.
The visor also returns – he is a tricky customer, or can be – and it looks like any change of headgear can spark him up a bit – the Bowen’s like the Visor and if Al Co is an example, they know when to apply it! The trainer is also in form as he usually is at this time of year – 3/10,5 places last 14 days. And the final piece of the jigsaw is pace – He doesn’t have to lead but can do and there is every chance he is bumped out to lead here. He stays further and if he gets into a rhythm and is travelling – given his mark, ability, and light weight – he could take some catching. The Curtis horse may try and be up there also, but hopefully SH can see him off.
Be On Time – this is more of a poke but I found it hard to resist a nibble just because he brings something different to the party. Unlike most of these he is young and still in the ‘could be anything’ category. When I say that clearly I don’t mean he could be a Gold Cup horse, but in time he could be better than his mark, and race at a higher level. He is only 5 and won on his stable debut, after a break, last October. His subsequent runs were underwhelming but for the latter two he may have hated the headgear. They step him up in trip which I thought interesting – he is half brother to a 2m7f chaser – and the trainer couldn’t be in much better form. The market may well guide but I thought he was worth a play in this.
Of the rest…
Well Dreamsoftheatre WON is the ‘oh boll***s’ horse if he romps home but he looks a bit out of sorts for me and they reach for headgear – not as some kind of plot or plan- but I would think as a ‘lets try this’ approach. It may well work, it needs to. If you were to ignore his recent lackluster efforts you could make a compelling case – He is 3/3 in C4 handicaps (all), 3/4 in this ratigs band, 111-120 (albeit with jockey claim he was in that LTO), he is a CD winner and is 2/2 under Dickie. But, he does tend to peak later in the year, he is out of form, the trainer is hot and cold (3/55 last 30 days) and thankfully, he looks weak in the market – he is 0/15,2 places when going off at 13/2 or bigger – if he does go off at 6/1 or shorter I would start to get more concerned. A return to form would not be a shock however. (update – he drifted to 8s, but ‘someone’ appears to be having a right old go at him, unless tipped somewhere, into 4s in places,will be interesting if he drifts nearer race or comes in again)
Of the rest, well the favourite has a favourites chance but 2s was short enough for a 13 YO – I watched his last race, which he should have won, but for making an error at the second last and was always on the back foot. This step up in trip may help and his stamina is assured – but 2s is short and you have to take that type on really. I wasn’t jumping up to back any of the others albeit there are reasons why another victor would not be a big surprise. But, the likes of Buck Mulligan and Velator, while having the form to win this, just look really out of sorts. Relentless Dreamer needs the change of headgear to work (it might) and while he is unexposed, does need to show more for me.
So, hopefully Strumble Head can lead them all the way and if he falters the Snowden horse picks up the pieces. It should be a fun watch, in any case!
3.00 Haydock
Nope, leaving this one alone for tipping purposes. It just looks a bit too much of a puzzle and with no trends to help, and having had a brief look I don’t think there will be many that can be easily crossed out – or to put it another way, there are 7 last time out winners,(nearly half the field) most of whom could have more to come – the race is packed full of 4+5 year olds and a few having 2nd/3rd runs of season – it would be trying to find a bet for the sake of it and that is unwise. Mass Rally will laugh at an opposition like this one day but you have to take some leap of faith and he must be many a punters ultimate cliff horse – he may well bolt up today, does have pace to aim at and the hood returns. But as I said there are a few in here whose improvement may not be done with yet. Happy to sit out and watch with the notepad.
The going is also tricky. I don’t think you can trust Haydock’s going – one of the worst possibly – and there are potential showers. It is meant to be good, but knowing that place a shower may turn it to soft! ‘officially’ or unofficially!
MICRO SYSTEMS
None.
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
CORRECTION…
3.00 Hayd – Signore Piccolo (12/1<) * UP
*apologies, system wasn’t saved in HRB with ‘2016’ in category, and as such didn’t come up originally. This is first potential qualifier of 2016.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
8.45 Sandown – Highland Colori – 20/1 – I may be going mad here but this ones price just jumps out and when I think of the level he can achieve and what he is doing differently, I just couldn’t resist. As you will see in the video above I had a look at this race and this one caught the eye – simply because of his mark – he has won off 111 and comes here off 95. That 111 was not a handicap but you only have to look back to last season’s Ayr Gold Cup to see some decent form – beaten less than 2 lengths off 103. He has 8lb less on his back here. A few other things caught the eye – He drops from class 2 -he is 4/8 in C3, 2/3 in C3 handicaps. 3/6,4 places in May in handicaps. Previous C2 winner. Now, for the more interesting points…he goes back up to 8f here, and he hardly ever runs at that trip. But, on the 31st May 2012 he ran here, at Sandown, over CD- and won, in a C3. It could be now, at his ageing years, that he needs a bit further. Past form suggests there is some stamina there. He also gets headgear for the first time in his life- sporting a visor for the first time here. That could make the difference. If he can get out and race prominently we could have some fun. The trainer is a bit in and out and of course he could just not be firing at the moment. But, there are plenty of reasons why a return to form would not totally shock you, and at 20/1 I found it hard to resist a nibble to find out!
Possibly more to follow. I was making an excellent case for King Of Paradise in the 4.30 Haydock, who I expect will try and lead them all a merry dance. He appears to have plenty in his favour. But, he has been well found at around 7/2 (albeit market not yet fully formed) and that feels about right. You may think that is a good price though!
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That is all for today. Post Complete
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58 Responses
urrgghh, the rot continues for now
let’s hope tonight can reverse some losses accrued over the last fortnight
Come on the Fanshawe switcher!
Also playing in the 7.40: im on the progressive Native Robin and Perfect Timing (wouldn’t it just be) is an e/w play at 14’s for the Summer Jumps stats and the horse is on a winning mark and seems to like the CD and going. Surprised at lack of support
Sorry folks.
well that went well
at least there’s always tomorrow in this punting game
Good thinking. You just have to find the winners. Be selective, not too many bets.
Jockey did well to get Gothic Empire over from wide draw but unfortunately burnt a lot of energy which told in the end,Flat racing is too frustrating so I am going back to basics and cutting down on flat bets,Just the Dascombe runners at haydock tomorrow
My analysis shows Dascombe does not have a winning angle on any particular system. However that does not mean he can have 3 winners in one day. Not my cup of tea as a trainer.
Initial thoughts on the tipping race tomorrow:
Mass Rally 12/1 looks interesting in 1st time bl, off a winnable mark, a drop in class and the showers will help. Has an entry for the Wokingham Stakes so Dods will need a win from him if he’s to qualify. Stable hot as we know
Also, isnt Signore Piccolino a TTP qualifier in the 3.00?
Yes quite correct, error with how system was saved in my HRB account, thankfully first one of the year – and glad you were on the ball!
Bet 365 still giving 12s….and Dascombes choice at 9s TTP
Good spot Ali, yes it’s a qualifier if 12/1 or less. Stopped checking as Josh was publishing them but as with everything I shouldn’t take it for granted.
Yep sorry about that. Administrative error.
Cheers for the video Josh…will have to start digging in to some of the new tools there. Don’t wanna run before I can walk, though.
No problem Paul – yep, that is a very wise approach!
Trying a gosden treble at haydock 50-1
Excellent video Josh, well done on that.
Thanks Richard, appreciated. Glad you enjoyed it.
I’m not saying Eisha Baby will win the 320 Chelms but just stumbled on a handy stat regarding R Hannon using that Betdaq/Proform tool:
Break Returners (less than 7 days) 36-133 (27.07%) £62.30 – Not sure of the time period but?
Running for a mark today – and will have a short break; I am a shareholder.
and I was going to have 10 bob on @ 60’s on Betdaq lol….
Know what you mean about Haydock Josh and added complication is the 2 straight tracks, the one used last Saturday, nearest the stands can suit middle to high draws, and the wetter it is the more the bias goes high, today they are running on the inner Course, where, having looked back a couple of years at good/ good to soft, it seems to suit middle to lower draws. You have to look very closely at race cards to read today is on INNER and even harder at past race analysis where unless it says “inner” it is on the outer Course. I narrowed it down to about 6 – = far too many!
One I have noted is William Knights (2 nice winners last night but may have been SDS at work) SECRET ART in the closer at Sandown at 8.45, a Course winner and a Distance winner (not CD though) and had 2 prep races for this and mark looks very appealing, that will be my each way punt today.
Does not help having that Clerk of the Course there! Loves a bit of watering that man!
I thought it was all the booze that ran off the stands at the Friday night meetings.
Re Highland Colori, in 2012 he won the same race beating Directorship by a neck receiving 5lbs. They both contest this again with a difference of 7lb in Directorship’s favour. Probably irrelevant to today’s race but worth a mention.
O Meara strike rate very poor at moment,3.00 selection drifting,so may be irrelevant anyway
yep, I did hold fire, as I often do when on a boundary, just to take a market check in the morning – and he is looking weak – O’Meara in dire form really for yard like his – more cold than hot, will snap out of it at some point. We shall see if he comes in again. Looks a horrible race to find the winner of, or even a value call.
Had a dabble on dreamsoftheatre at 8/1 with Victor, sorry Josh, one of us will be saying “oh b**locks” LOL
yea I don’t blame you haha – If he were in slightly better form, and it was July/Aug then the Wheelbarrow may well have been coming out. He will show more at some point in next couple of months, I do hope for my sake it isnt today!
Oh god. took a while but looks like JP may be unloading his euros on the old rogue!! The ‘boll***s’ ‘ometer could be swinging back in my direction!
Hi Josh. Having been a Geegees Gold Member for going on 2 years I’m well aware of the benefits of this and would always recommend this site. One of my tracker horses runs in 2.40 Newcastle which is Unex Modigliani (easy for me to say) and if it takes to the surface I would expect a big run at an ew price…
Took 16s EW Tom….good shout.
Well done..keep a eye on this
Apologies. Should read 2.50 Chelmsford
I imagine Haydock will be a bit softer than forecast……it’s rained all night here in Liverpool…..not heavy, but a constant light drizzle and the ground up there tends to be a bit cloying…..all around there they find it fine for growing those big black soiled potatoes. This isn’t being flippant .it’s factual. I usually minimise bets when it’s like this…..unless it’s a specialist horse. Hope this helps a few with thinking about there bets.
Yep I can confirm it is very much light drizzle out of my window! Albeit, in the 3pm, if it is soft to heavy say, that doesn’t help as most of the field have winning form with juice! Definitely sitting that one out. If you find the winner of that you are doing well. for me.
lol…and as Richard said….the Clerk of the course likes to water….
Off to Bangor today will be backing Josh’s tips of course and 2 at e.w. value of my own.
2.40 bennachie
3.40 jack’s last hope
Back in the 90’s you could back Mark Johnston horses almost blindly,hadn’t a huge string like now,you were always guaranteed thy would be competitive,now you couldn’t touch his horses with a bargepole,especially at the top of the market,think same will apply to O’ Meara and Fahey,they will have lots of winnners of course but will be so many running will be hard to know which are primed and those that are just making up the numbers.A trainer with a string of 20-30 horses will know each one individaully,how they have ate up,are thy content etc.The bigger ones can’t possibly spend an hour with a horse so they delegate and dilute the success formula.Seems to be support for snap shots in the 3.00 but it could be one of Dascombes Football buddies who has lashed 10 grand on him after training
Power Up in the 3.50 at Chelmsford looks a fair price at around 4/1. Has had four runs over C/D winning twice, and has posted decent speed figures in the context of this race. Both wins have come off of a break which it is again today. Has returned to Jane C H so could get an extra boost from that as well.
Just wanna say thanks josh, without your write up i would never of got on Dreamsoftheatre there, seeing the money combined with dickie 2-2 on it. Cheers.
Ah, good to hear, that is why I write as I do. Clearly I cant repeat my reaction as he crossed the line, one that got away – but glad you had a bit more confidence that I did!
you win some you lose some and I needed that one and as you say loads of money from some where!
There is nowhere, or anything else, that Sod’s Law infests more than Horse Racing.
Would any members be willing to put up they’re list of horses that they have added to their notebook please?
Rightly or wrongly Josh I took 9s last night for Snap Shots at haydock 3.00…..I took it from the TTR profile and backed both….so maybe my 2nditis is ending…lol. Nice one Josh.
Ah yes good stuff, you cant beat that combo at the track in handicaps. I think we are both reading it just fine – just that final decision/bit of luck. Yours could well be turning – I occasionally keep bashing my head against the door!! Good stuff.
My pared back backing has been so good so far 11/1 for Snap Shots 8.8 pts profit after deductions,less the 2 losers makes just under 7 pts for day
I hear a good word for Coiste Bodhar, 9.05 Newc at 20/1 each way.
I’ll give it a go martin….cheers.
Cheers Martin
Will have a small bet Martin,Trainer is in good form so might outrun his odds,thanks
Cheers Martin
Margarets Mission was taken out on Monday at Ayr but runs tonight at Newcaslle 20.05.
Might win.
…ran really well at Ascot Tom, worth a small bet. Cheers
Another excellent and informative video Josh.
Just finished watching and was becoming quite interested in Chevalier during your analysis, what with Karl Burke been in good form and the horse clearly liking Sandown, so I logged in to see what price it was.
The blooming thing has already won lol.
Oh well we move on, I’m just glad the next video is shorter lol.
Cheers Karl. Yep he did stand out didn’t he,and I kept looking at him as well..but left him,and not really sure why given ticked every box and price was decent! Was always going to have a nibble on HC at 20s,maybe he should have been in there also! Powerful those instant expert profiles when combined with a trainer in form..when also many other trainers may not be in form. Still,the great thing is there is always tomorrow,always more like that!
Learning fast with your video tutorials Josh
Thanks
Ah good to hear,glad you enjoy them. I should listen to myself more… Dreamsoftheatre and Chevalier both touched on to some extent,both left!