Members Report: 25/05/16 (COMPLETE)

The ‘tipped’ horse ran a cracker, drifting from 7s to 10s and finishing a close enough second not to be disheartened – I rarely complain when getting a run for my money/reading the race right. The winner was the one interesting horse in the race given his different profile – finding some form in point to points. Not a total shock albeit it was a bit of guesswork whether he would transfer it to rules – well, guesswork if you are not an avid PtP/hunter chase follower I suppose. (an area to expand my knowledge in) Anyway, if I read the majority of 3m+ chases like that for the rest of 2016 we should do just fine. Still, it was a loser. 







No tips. 




J Fanshawe Kempton (any odds): 7.20 Kempt – Gothic Empire 



2.30 Ham – Lady Wootton (any odds) NR

2.50 Ling – Foxinthehenhouse (9/1<) DNQ

3.05 Ham – Little Belter (any odds) NR



3.40 Ham- Incurs Four Faults – 12/1 – NR- I am still scratching my head on this one and can’t decide whether I fully like his chance or not. But, part of the point of this section was to use the various ‘ways in’ to build a case and to an extent take my over-thinking/pondering out of it. So, I will just let you use what follows to help form your own view – which I know most of you use my ramblings for anyway! I can’t think I will have more than 1/2 point on him, maybe EW.

Firstly some stats- well this one clearly doesn’t qualify on the Dalgleish TTP system but that won’t cover all of his winners and is no immediate reason to be put off one. When teaming up with Jason Hart here, they are 5/16, 9 places. That is decent enough and he has also won on the horse, 1/3. He is now 7lb below his last winning mark and chance stands out to an extent on the tools I use, looking at other runners suitability to race conditions. Both of his flat handicap wins have come at Carlisle and Hamilton (1/4 CD) and it could be that he relishes a stiff finish. Two runs ago he returned after nearly 3 months off and he could be coming to the boil now. He ran OK LTO. He is also a C4/5 winner, and will go in at some point from around this mark. I wouldn’t be shocked were he to run a cracker, and 12s looked tempting. The negatives? Well his draw is far from ideal over this trip, around here. Now, he can front run and if he can get out, he could get a position (there are other prominent racers on his inside though) He could also get stuck wide and that would be that. He is also 0/7, 1p when going off 17/2 or bigger and his best form is in smaller fields, when he can dominate. The trainer is a bit hot and cold also but 30% of his horses have been placing in the last two weeks and he does run a lot. Then there are the two recent winners. One could bolt up again but there are reasons for why they may not – the track and their recent exertions. So, I am a bit torn on this one, but thought I would throw him out there. 

I will mention Bouclier in the 8.20 Kempton. He is a bit short for me and was hoping he would be bigger but it appears many others may have seen what I did last time – a what could be politely called a ‘strange’ ride. It was over the fast 5 at Epsom and he was never really put in it – some effort near the end where he ‘flew’. I suspect they may have been ticking him over for a race of this nature, at this track. There could still be plenty to come from him back over a more adequate trip. But, he hasn’t been missed my the market. In any case it will be an interesting test for my ‘strange ride eyes’.


That is all for Wednesday. Post Complete. Anything catch your eye? 


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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

47 responses

  1. Unfortunately Josh I backed it to win, but today I had another 2 second places and a third, and a couple of losers…I’m on one of those horrible 2nd -itis periods….not a winner in 25 runs, but 11 2nd’s and a couple of other placed horses 2 at 40/1..i just can’t buy a winner. I know it’ll pass but it’s a bummer…lol

    1. I also backed the tipped horse to win only, as advised – that is how it goes, bumped into a well handicapped one.

      We all go through runs like that and it is never nice, you just have to keep doing what has worked before, dont get anxious and stick to your guns. As soon as the losing run affects your decision making (which is natural to a point) you are in trouble. That no. of seconds/placed horses suggests it is just an unlucky period, rather than an indication that you should be put out to grass! (I was bordering on a couple of those moments in recent months, as if I had never set eyes on a horse race!)

      1. O I’m not beefing Josh, I’ve been there before, but it does wick one…lol.
        I’ll have a large whiskey now…aaaaaah!

        1. Ah I know, just didnt want you to think I was sitting pretty on a decent EW wager! 🙂

  2. Did anyone see the 9.05 at Carlisle last night. I backed Encantar……everything pointed to a good run. Jockey.P McDonald? [ ithink]…gave it a terrible ride….then switched to the outside…I thought he’d blown it with bad jockeyship….Then the horse suddenly bolted and passed nearly all like a train…then suddenly stopped as if it didn’t want to go through with it. Or the jockey.
    I’d love a more objective opinion as mine was a bit soured…

  3. just watched Midnight warriors race…thought it was going to do it at one point…..just missed out on the each way….4th..i think.

    1. yep, annoying somewhat. Would have been a nice little return to end the day on, not to be.

      1. Except one dropped out reducing the field to 15 runners…I’m sure the bookies pay a trainer to do so….which reduces their payout.

        1. So do I the number of times it happens in eight and sixteen runner races. Does not happen often when the Race is a high class/big prize one though.

  4. I got 40/1 last night for P Midgeleys La Haule Lady, so that wasn’t bad…but it shows…watch Midge…..

  5. I keep hearing this good-action horse or soft-action but dont know what it means. To do with running style i presume?

    Can anyone explain/give examples of them?

    I ask because Im assessing tomorrow’s 7.40 and wondering about Native Robin’s chance who ran great on the soft ground. Is there anything about the robin’s “action” that suggests he will handle the Good ground too?

    1. Ah, Native Robin has in fact already won on Good, my bad.

      But still, wouldnt mind knowing more about this ‘action’ business

    2. If the ground is soft, it is unlikely to suit a horse with a low action. Fast ground it can skim over is what is required and having to handle soft ground corresponds to a human running in wellington boots. On the other hand, soft ground will suit the sort of horse with a rounded action, which is one that resembles a rocking horse, and that hits the ground hard with its forelegs. Imagine those front legs thumping down of fast ground and you get an idea of how it feels for the horse – rather like racing on hot coals

  6. the ice meister 6.30 gowran, stable 4 from 7 here with older horses last 5yrs. c/d winner only run at course as 2yo, eyecatching first run back earlier this month. big fancy for one of best trainers around,.

  7. Lingfield Turf track 5/6f has long has a high draw bias and if you look at the 2.20 there is one stand out horse, almost looks too good to be true on form, draw, handicap mark and SDS rides, so what can beat Commanche??

    On the basis that such stacked logic does not always work, I am looking for something drawn highish and IF the Bridger / T-D works at Brighton, well – why not Lingfield…so I will have a small saver on Pharaoh Jake.

  8. Re Bouclier which is a non runner. I had looked at it as it came out on my Sires at Kempton as a qualifier. It looked to me that the five furlongs is too sharp (considering it has run over a mile in the past). Six furlongs does look the right trip for it now but it also looks a tad high in the handicap off it’s present mark.

    1. Have to agree with you there.He’s 1-1 at hamilton loves fast ground dropping back to class 5 will suit and very well weighted on a 71.Still a good price at 8/1

      1. Fair play to quinny,seemed liked the horse did not want to go through with it.He certainly made up his mind for him.

    2. Got 8s early doors…..trainer is only 6% winners last 50……but jockeys only ride too, but he’s just over 14% wins last 50…so could compensate.

    3. Ruby’s Day for me 305 Ham . Trainer has a good record at the track with this type of horse and with the jockey (teamed up at Wetherby last night and won). Only runner today too!! Imperial Legend seems to need cheek pieces to win and its nearly 3 years since he’s won so at 6’s he’s too short for me but will win now join the ever growing sod’s law list. I like Tom Sawyer too I think he has a squawk rather than a squeak at a big price with conditions to suit. Maybe there’s a few more that I’ve overlooked for the wrong reasons but hey I gotta be right one day!!

    1. Officially you’ve booed Mike as the system is for June only, but it will be interesting to see how it goes today.
      Good Luck if you’re on

      1. Yep I had a good look at him, he is well handicapped now,and this is third run for yard. An improved performance wouldn’t shock me today. And he is having a better may,within the other system rules,than he has had before. If not today he will be a bet on his next run,if it is next month. He was on my Stats/Angles notepad. Forget why I crossed him off (currently on a train) but it was nothing too severe. Market may guide. Was 16s when I last looked.

      2. Finished 3rd 12/1, a small return which is better than I have been having.

        Midgley has one for tomorrow which qualifies, ..I know it is’t not June yet…… ORIENT CLASS 9.05 Newcastle

  9. I reckon theres a few of us on here that have had a poor time of it in May, me included. Has been most frustrating with many 2nds and 3rds and the 4th yesterday was typical having backed each way. I have backed Calin Du Brizais 7.40 NAbott. today, not much of a price 7/2-3/1. This horse is becoming my cliff horse as i have backed him last twice, an unseat when seemingly only needing to jump last 2 to win easily, and a nose 2nd when jockey Tom Scu seemed to do everything he could to not win (hate that talking through pocket, but come on Tom what were you doing?) very frustrating and sums up this month for me.
    Anyway, got that off me chest, feeling better already. Come on Tom Scu do it for the horse, he deserves to win a race … we know you are a top man and top jockey, love you really….lol

    1. …I think Scu has a mental block since his last injury…doesn’t attack his fences anymore….eases and loses the horse a length or so….It’ll come back though…we hope.

    2. I’m in the same club James. Seconditis unless each way when fourthitis etc and as soon as we miss one, in it goes…

  10. I’ve backed Stylish Minerva 2.50 Lingfield from a hannon system I have. 20s so eachway hoping for a surprise because the form looks crap! 4.25 I’m looking at wintered well and 4.55 silver gent but I’ve not backed those two at market rasen yet as I’m unsure if it’s worth a risk?

  11. Interesting Point Tony MC Raises. (Keanes point another 2nd for me too)
    About Withdrawals and effect on Place Money Paid out.
    30 Withdrawals so far today after placing bets at 9:30.
    Question are Trainers fined for Late Withdrawals.
    Up to What time are they allowed to Withdraw.
    Is a valid reason given and Recorded Anywhere.
    It occurs to me That Bookies are raking money in all the Time now Possibly offering odds Knowing that Horses are to be withdrawn. The grapevine being what it is.
    Certainly it is becoming a more familiar occurence these days.
    And can’t fathom out. No Dramatic Changes in Going etc
    Couple of Weeks ago. There were 80 Entries for 3 Meeting and 31 Horses were withdrawn late in Morning. And all we here from trainers Bleat Bleat . Is that there are less opportunities for their Charges.

    1. The 4th placed horse we had at 33s = a loss of about 6.5 pts……bookie rubs hands……I knew a tic tac man once who ltold me the bookies will pay any fine occurred if a trainer drops one….They clear up day after day…on non legitimate withdrawals…

    2. ..a careful reply… withdrawal the other day….it was the last horse going down to the start…no one near it…withdrawn…excuse…struck into…no way was that horse near one for it to happen, then. another drop below 16. Even if that trainer collects full winnings….it’s chicken feed for the slush fund of the bookmakers..

  12. lol…at last a winner in Imperial Legend…didn’t it win well…also took Groundworker EW…I’m smiling now. lol

  13. Afternoon all, just been travelling down M40 following K. Frost horsebox. Caught the travelling girls eye to ask if any good. 7.20 KEMPTON. Said it had a very good e/w chance.

    1. You realise if this wins, we will all start flagging down horse boxes on the countries motorways demanding information! haha

  14. Jarrod,
    horse is AMONG ANGELS currently 25/1, Nice way to get a winner if it comes in. Cheers

    1. Hi all, it would be a nice winner. I have had a nice e/w bet on it. You never know! Why let the opportunity pass.
      Josh….. You’ll have to tell Matt B ( geegeez) that one. He’ll cry! Hope you had a great time away. Unlucky Saturday. Onwards and upwards.

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