June is fast approaching and last year we followed Mr Paul Midgley to some decent success. You may have noticed that he has started banging in a few winners – just in time again for his usual all-out assault on June. For May I was late researching any angles and as such partly missed a 14/1 winner (was posted late on blog having done research that morning and a lot of you missed him, due to my laziness)
Anyway, I don’t intend to do that again.
For June we have two trainers on our side who will hopefully keep us in front.
Fist up, Paul Midgley…
Last year’s approach was rather simplistic. But my trainer system research is much improved and a quick dig with a certain ‘filter’ has improved the results some what.
So, here goes…
- Paul Midgley
- Handicaps (covers Flat and AW)
- 0-4 wins in handicaps only (the new filter)
- 18/1 or shorter SP
Firstly, he has only had 3 runners on the AW in the period, one has placed- so we may as well keep an eye on them also.
Last year I don’t think we (the Royal ‘we’) looked at how many handicaps the horse had won. With all system rules the same, those with 5 or more handicaps wins to their name are: 50 bets / 3 wins / 16 places / -29 SP / AE 0.46.
They lose a lot of money and are performing 54% below market expectations, based on SP. It would appear that the best place to focus is on those with 4 or fewer handicap wins to their names. Clearly he does have a few older horses/sprinters in his yard and they should not be dismissed out of hand – he may have a few running in big C2 sprints for example – worthy of a second glance. But, in general, over time, they have been best left alone. It makes sense really – like with any handicapper, the more handicaps they win the more susceptible they are to being beaten by more progressive legs – not to mention being handicapped up to the hilt for a certain time etc. Something to keep an eye on in any case.
If we now focus on all the rules above and look at odds – those going off over 18/1 in he period are: 0/40, 3 places. Happy to avoid.
Using the same rules, if you ignore June, you get: 683 bets / 62 wins / 201 places / 9% sr/ -169 SP / AE 0.71.
When you breakdown the stats by month it is clear that this is a deliberate strategy. It is no coincidence that they always tend to peak in June – for whatever reason he appears to target this month. Fingers crossed that is the case again this year.
He hasn’t been worth following in May, not systematically, but is 2/12 so far this month, using those same rules above. Worth keeping an eye on his runners, but they certainly look to be coming into form.
Ruth Carr…a couple of you have commented below and actually when you set the basic parameters for this kind of monthly research and sort by trainers she is near the top, profit wise, for the last three seasons. I have kept my own approach quite simple and ideally don’t want too many bets. There are a few reasons for that but mainly, if the trainer under-performs, it is never catastrophic!
- Ruth Carr
- Handicaps (Flat+ AW)
- 3yo+ and 4yo+ only
- NOT running at the same distance as LTO (so, any kind of distance move)
- Any odds
Right, where to start with this one. The starting set of data was Flat handicaps, in June. No odds cap. A quick look at the odds highlighted the odd decent priced winner so I left that out.
It was clear from a breakdown of ‘age restrictions’ that the 3yo only handicaps were best avoided. From that started set, 1/17,2 places, -12 SP.
So, using this new base set… Flat Handicaps, June, No Odds Cap, 3yo+ and 4yo+ handicaps…
Going through all my usual filters, including those mentioned in the comments – I personally couldn’t make that much of a compelling case for others filters – not when looking at them one by one, always going back to the base set. There were no other strong stats reasons to include other filters in my opinion until…
I had a look at ‘distance move’.
Those running at the same distance as last time out didn’t do too well. 13/109,32 places… -28 SP,.. AE 0.89
That is a lot of bets for a poor return. Clearly the odd one is going to win and you can use this information to help in that endeavor. But, backing them systematically hasn’t been much fun. They may do well this season but there is some logic there and it fits the ‘doing something different from last run theory’. A move in trip is clearly A reason why a horse may improve on its last run.
So, for now, I am happy to ignore those running at the same trip. It also reduces the no. of bets which is no bad thing for an angle like this. I have made the mistake in the past of having 50+ bets a month from ‘monthly trainers’ which when you add in everything else is just too much for my comfort. And heightens the risk.
Now, when using these new system rules… and looking at some more filters, there are some areas to note. Firstly she has only had 1 all weather runner- and she does have winners on the AW so I am happy to include those, she may just pop up with a winner on the sand this June.
Class – using the original set she is 0/13, 2 places in Class 2. With the new system – 0/4, 1 place – those are not stats to exclude class 2 runners on. Class is very much to do with the quality of the animal I think – Ruth can clearly train and I suspect if she had a horse with C2 ability she could do the job. That may be wrong and her C2 runners/record should be kept in mind.
And that’s it. There is no need to over-complicate this or slice and dice any further. She has had the odd biggie go in but the record for those priced 12/1 or shorter SP is also impressive, which is important.
Her record in the month of June really does stand out against all other months – one of the biggest differentials you will see I think. It looks like they come to the boil this month and a repeat of either of the last two seasons would be great!
Some caution…as before 2013 there wasn’t much of a record to shout about. It does look like there has been a clear shift, but another reason for not having too many bets, in case it does all go wrong!
That is all for this post .