June Trainers (complete)

June is fast approaching and last year we followed Mr Paul Midgley to some decent success. You may have noticed that he has started banging in a few winners – just in time again for his usual all-out assault on June. For May I was late researching any angles and as such partly missed a 14/1 winner (was posted late on blog having done research that morning and a lot of you missed him, due to my laziness) 

Anyway, I don’t intend to do that again. 

For June we have two trainers on our side who will hopefully keep us in front. 

Fist up, Paul Midgley…

Last year’s approach was rather simplistic. But my trainer system research is much improved and a quick dig with a certain ‘filter’ has improved the results some what. 

So, here goes…

  • Paul Midgley 
  • Handicaps (covers Flat and AW) 
  • JUNE
  • 0-4 wins in handicaps only (the new filter) 
  • 18/1 or shorter SP 
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 136 34 25 106.11 63 46.32 78.02 149.79 110.14 44.33 1.78
2015 11 3 27.27 23 5 45.45 209.09 25.35 230.5 6 2.54
2014 10 6 60 33.75 7 70 337.5 51.57 515.66 6.83 3.14
2013 17 3 17.65 7.5 7 41.18 44.12 9.51 55.96 6.43 1.6
2012 27 9 33.33 20.63 15 55.56 76.41 29.87 110.63 8.89 1.95
2011 45 8 17.78 12.75 18 40 28.33 19.72 43.81 13.15 1.37
2010 26 5 19.23 8.48 11 42.31 32.62 13.77 52.96 3.03 1.37

 

Firstly, he has only had 3 runners on the AW in the period, one has placed- so we may as well keep an eye on them also. 

Last year I don’t think we (the Royal ‘we’) looked at how many handicaps the horse had won. With all system rules the same, those with 5 or more handicaps wins to their name are: 50 bets / 3 wins / 16 places / -29 SP / AE 0.46. 

They lose a lot of money and are performing 54% below market expectations, based on SP. It would appear that the best place to focus is on those with 4 or fewer handicap wins to their names. Clearly he does have a few older horses/sprinters in his yard and they should not be dismissed out of hand – he may have a few running in big C2 sprints for example – worthy of a second glance. But, in general, over time, they have been best left alone. It makes sense really – like with any handicapper, the more handicaps they win the more susceptible they are to being beaten by more progressive legs – not to mention being handicapped up to the hilt for a certain time etc. Something to keep an eye on in any case. 

If we now focus on all the rules above and look at odds – those going off over 18/1 in he period are: 0/40, 3 places. Happy to avoid. 

Using the same rules, if you ignore June, you get: 683 bets / 62 wins / 201 places / 9% sr/ -169 SP / AE 0.71. 

When you breakdown the stats by month it is clear that this is a deliberate strategy. It is no coincidence that they always tend to peak in June – for whatever reason he appears to target this month. Fingers crossed that is the case again this year. 

He hasn’t been worth following in May, not systematically, but is 2/12 so far this month, using those same rules above. Worth keeping an eye on his runners, but they certainly look to be coming into form. 

***

PART 2 

Ruth Carr…a couple of you have commented below and actually when you set the basic parameters for this kind of monthly research and sort by trainers she is near the top, profit wise, for the last three seasons. I have kept my own approach quite simple and ideally don’t want too many bets. There are a few reasons for that but mainly, if the trainer under-performs, it is never catastrophic! 

So…

  • Ruth Carr
  • June
  • Handicaps (Flat+ AW)
  • 3yo+ and 4yo+ only 
  • NOT running at the same distance as LTO (so, any kind of distance move)
  • Any odds
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E
ALL 51 16 31.37 113.58 23 45.1 222.71 138.21 17.27 67.00 2.35
2015 13 5 38.46 62.5 5 38.46 480.77 73.33 8.03 34.00 4.03
2014 22 7 31.82 44.83 12 54.55 203.77 56.35 10.67 34.00 1.97
2013 16 4 25 6.25 6 37.5 39.06 8.54 -1.43 67.00 2

 

Right, where to start with this one. The starting set of data was Flat handicaps, in June. No odds cap. A quick look at the odds highlighted the odd decent priced winner so I left that out. 

It was clear from a breakdown of ‘age restrictions’ that the 3yo only handicaps were best avoided. From that started set, 1/17,2 places, -12 SP. 

So, using this new base set… Flat Handicaps, June, No Odds Cap, 3yo+ and 4yo+ handicaps… 

Going through all my usual filters, including those mentioned in the comments – I personally couldn’t make that much of a compelling case for others filters – not when looking at them one by one, always going back to the base set. There were no other strong stats reasons to include other filters in my opinion until…

I had a look at ‘distance move’. 

Those running at the same distance as last time out didn’t do too well. 13/109,32 places… -28 SP,.. AE 0.89

That is a lot of bets for a poor return. Clearly the odd one is going to win and you can use this information to help in that endeavor. But, backing them systematically hasn’t been much fun. They may do well this season but there is some logic there and it fits the ‘doing something different from last run theory’. A move in trip is clearly A reason why a horse may improve on its last run. 

So, for now, I am happy to ignore those running at the same trip. It also reduces the no. of bets which is no bad thing for an angle like this. I have made the mistake in the past of having 50+ bets a month from ‘monthly trainers’ which when you add in everything else is just too much for my comfort. And heightens the risk. 

Now, when using these new system rules… and looking at some more filters, there are some areas to note. Firstly she has only had 1 all weather runner- and she does have winners on the AW so I am happy to include those, she may just pop up with a winner on the sand this June.

Class – using the original set she is 0/13, 2 places in Class 2. With the new system – 0/4, 1 place – those are not stats to exclude class 2 runners on. Class is very much to do with the quality of the animal I think – Ruth can clearly train and I suspect if she had a horse with C2 ability she could do the job. That may be wrong and her C2 runners/record should be kept in mind. 

And that’s it. There is no need to over-complicate this or slice and dice any further. She has had the odd biggie go in but the record for those priced 12/1 or shorter SP is also impressive, which is important. 

Her record in the month of June really does stand out against all other months – one of the biggest differentials you will see I think. It looks like they come to the boil this month and a repeat of either of the last two seasons would be great! 

Some caution…as before 2013 there wasn’t much of a record to shout about. It does look like there has been a clear shift, but another reason for not having too many bets, in case it does all go wrong! 

***

That is all for this post . 

 

 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

10 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, I’ve come up with a systematic approach to follow Ruth Carr in June, it seems she also definitely targets the month.
    Can send it over if you like or post on here and see what you think.

    Karl 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Karl, feel free to post it up here. I have been wanting to do a ‘trainer in focus’ piece on here runners. Fire away and I will have a look, see if we can add it in.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Okay Josh, only recently got horseracebase and this was my first attempt, can’t stay off the bloomin thing now lol.

    Back Mrs R A Carrs runners in 3yo+ and 4yo+ flat turf handicaps between 5 and 10.5 furlongs in distance.
    Race classes 1 to 6 inclusive, might be worth ignoring class 1&2.
    Horse must be a gelding and have 10 or less career wins.
    Month of June only.

    Profitable at SP every year for last 4 years but 95%+ of the profit was in last 2 years, I believe the yard had a bug in 2013 so any kind of profit then was a bonus.
    Can’t do the fancy table like you Josh but here’s a summary of 2012 to 2015

    Bets 142 Wins 31 (22%) Profit at SP 97.25 Profit at BSP 126.13 (not sure if this is after commission or not)
    Any thoughts appreciated

    Karl 1 year ago Reply


  • Paul Midgley’s current entries

    25May16 3:05 Groundworker HAMILTON (Overnight), Racing To School Handicap
    No betting

    25May16 5:15 Annie T HAMILTON (Overnight), Book Now For Saints And Sinners Handicap
    No betting

    26May16 6:25 Ey Up NEWCASTLE (A.W) (Overnight), EBF Stallions/HMH Civils North East Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race)

    26May16 9:05 Orient Class NEWCASTLE (A.W) (Overnight), Vistage Handicap

    27May16 7:40 Olivia Fallow MUSSELBURGH (Four Day), Belmont Wallyford Handicap

    27May16 9:00 Mister Mischief PONTEFRACT (Four Day), Ronald Mcnally Memorial Maiden Stakes

    28May16 2:20 Merry Banter CATTERICK (Four Day), Scoop6 It’s A Rollover Novice Median Auction Stakes

    28May16 2:20 Jollydee CATTERICK (Four Day), Scoop6 It’s A Rollover Novice Median Auction Stakes

    28May16 2:55 Fuel Injection CATTERICK (Four Day), Scoop6 Racing’s Millionaire Maker Handicap

    30May16 12:45 Yorkshiredebut REDCAR (Five Day), racinguk.com Novice Auction Stakes

    4Jun16 3:45 Olivia Fallow EPSOM (Early closer), Investec Corporate Banking “Dash” (Heritage Handicap)
    33

    4Jun16 3:45 Desert Law EPSOM (Early closer), Investec Corporate Banking “Dash” (Heritage Handicap)
    12

    4Jun16 3:45 Monsieur Joe EPSOM (Early closer), Investec Corporate Banking “Dash” (Heritage Handicap)
    11

    11Jun16 3:45 Silvanus MUSSELBURGH (Early closer), William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (A Heritage Handicap)
    16

    11Jun16 3:45 Desert Law MUSSELBURGH (Early closer), William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (A Heritage Handicap)
    20

    11Jun16 3:45 Monsieur Joe MUSSELBURGH (Early closer), William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (A Heritage Handicap)
    16

    11Jun16 3:45 Olivia Fallow MUSSELBURGH (Early closer), William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (A Heritage Handicap)
    20

    14Jun16 3:40 Line Of Reason ASCOT (Early closer), King’s Stand Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1)
    66

    18Jun16 5:00 Ninjago ASCOT (Early closer), Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
    25

    18Jun16 5:00 Gamesome ASCOT (Early closer), Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
    28

    18Jun16 5:00 Related ASCOT (Early closer), Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
    50

    1Oct16 1:45 Emerald Secret NEWMARKET (Early closer), £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes

    Clavis 1 year ago Reply


  • Ruth Carr’s current entries

    24May16 8:50 Frosty The Snowman WETHERBY (Overnight), Farewell To The Old Members Stand Handicap
    6/1

    25May16 2:30 Danish Duke HAMILTON (Overnight), Hamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Handicap
    No betting

    25May16 3:05 Oriental Splendour HAMILTON (Overnight), Racing To School Handicap
    No betting

    26May16 3:00 Explain HAYDOCK (Overnight), ApolloBet Bet Through Your Mobile Handicap
    No betting

    27May16 6:40 San Cassiano MUSSELBURGH (Four Day), Daikin Applied Classic Handicap

    27May16 7:40 Flash City MUSSELBURGH (Four Day), Belmont Wallyford Handicap

    27May16 8:00 Flash City PONTEFRACT (Four Day), Constant Security Services Handicap

    27May16 9:10 Adventureman MUSSELBURGH (Four Day), Macbet Best Odds Guaranteed All Races Handicap

    28May16 3:25 Be Perfect CHESTER (Four Day), Champions League Final Betting At Betway Handicap

    28May16 3:30 Tanawar CATTERICK (Four Day), Scoop6 Results At totepoolliveinfo.com Handicap

    28May16 4:45 Ellaal BEVERLEY (Four Day), Beryl And Joe Turner Memorial Handicap

    28May16 5:15 Exotic Guest CATTERICK (Four Day), totetrifecta Pick The 1,2,3 Handicap

    30May16 2:15 Dyllan REDCAR (Five Day), Racing UK Profits Returned To Racing Handicap

    30May16 3:20 Dubai Dynamo LEICESTER (Five Day), totequadpot Four Places In Four Races Handicap

    30May16 4:00 Frosty The Snowman REDCAR (Five Day), Come Racing Again Tomorrow Handicap

    Clavis 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Karl

    Hope you don’t mind me posting but I really like to get stuck in to these sort of things. I probably get a little too micro with these but here are my findings:

    Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Lay(BF) ROI(L) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) Lay(Plc) MxOdd A/E
    84 29 34.52 160.08 41 48.81 81 35.8 190.57 189.69 225.82 -205.32 -19.5 41 48.81 27.61 -33.48 41.00 2.44

    Race Code Flat

    Track NOT any of the below
    Beverley Doncaster Musselburgh

    Race Class
    Class 4 Class 5 Class 6

    Handicaps

    Date (Year)
    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Date (Month)
    June

    Origin of Horse
    NOT any of the below
    (FR)

    Horse Age Between 4 And 8

    Jockey
    NOT any of the below
    McDonald, P J

    Trainer
    Carr, Mrs R A

    (LR) Placing
    Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth
    Ninth Tenth

    She hasn’t had any qualifiers which were not geldings and she has had a winner with 12 victories so haven’t capped those. I originally capped the distance between 5f and 1m4.5f however she has only had one qualifier above that range so not sure if we need to restrict on that basis.

    Regards,
    Nick

    Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Nick, no problem with you chipping in as I’m always willing to listen and learn mate, that’s why I love this blog. Impressive figures and she definitely looks worth keeping onside next month however you slice and dice the data. Having a good May but June is my favourite month anyway with Epsom and Ascot plus the Northumberland Plate. Adding Midgely and Carr plus anything Josh might come up with and it could be sensational. Oh to be in England when June is here

    Karl 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh, to add a bit of support to your Midgley theory he had a 28/1 3rd, La Haule Lady in the 2yo maiden at Wetherby last night. I had seen this one at York and thought she was a moderate type with a little bit of potential so to get her to place (in what was admittedly a weak race) suggests he is getting his string into good shape.

    Hugh 1 year ago Reply


  • Thanks for the update Josh. Distance move eh? I never even thought of that one. Just goes to show you’re always learning at this game. I also think you show good sense by limiting the number of bets for the reasons given. Glad to see those Czech brews haven’t frazzled your brain cells lol.

    Karl 1 year ago Reply


    • Ha. Well based on the tipping race and the stats/angles of interest race,given horses I touched on in video,a case could be made that I had one too many Czech beers!! System building is something you get better at. Vital to have a started set and always test each one separately,rather than compounding. If you use my system above with distance move…and look at some of other criteria you and Nick touch on,will see nothing stands out. All about how you slice and dice as you say. I dont like too many factors for angles in general. That simple one seems to do the trick,but I get it wrong plenty!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


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