NEW POST BELOW…
Generous Chief – 1 point win – 7/1 (general) 2nd 10/1
I think I can just about remember how to tip a horse, but we shall soon find out! 🙂 In general C5 chases are where the muggier punter likes to ply their ‘trade’, but I don’t mind being a bit muggy every now and then. We are here to be entertained after all and I just couldnt let this 3m+ handicap chase pass me by. (for those unaware that is my ‘tipping race’ of choice and one where we did OK last jumps season, profit wise)
I can’t really work out why this one is quite so big in price really. 7s seems more than fair for a chaser in form, who likes the ground, stays jumps ok, is well enough handicapped to go in again, races just off the pace and is lightly raced enough – 2/15,3 places over fences. I think that race title last time can be misleading – a ‘selling chase’ – but it certainly was no worse than this – and arguably, given some of the horses in it and their suitability for conditions + most were shorter than him that day, it was a fair effort and worthy of a higher place in the market here for me. He is also now 2/4 places in the visor. Maybe that is the key. The trainer is 1/9,2 places with handicap chasers at the track in last 730 days.
The question? Well it is about how well he travels and whether the headgear works again really. It is a C5 chase after all and none of these animals are predictable – hence why they are C5 chasers. IF it is clear he is travelling early I think he will go close. He could well jump the first slow and be niggled etc. In the context of this race 7s was fine to take that chance, in my opinion. This is the first time also over fences, after a decent run, whereby he has had similar conditions – the same class, and not having had a long break. Bar his attitude I see no reason why he wont go close here, with a repeat of that last run.
Of the rest?
Suzys Music is probably a worthy fav based on that last run and in theory this is easier. But, she is a hold up chaser who makes errors – and that alone is enough for me to leave 7/2 well alone. if she keeps those down and the leaders/front 3rd come back (questionable on this ground) she would go close. Enough ifs though at the price. Apache Pilot is an interesting one and may well lead these all a merry dance. I am head scratching though. They had a decent enough 7lb claimer on LTO and he doesn’t ride today. He must go LH i think and you can ignore his last run where the saddle slipped – he was going well enough from the front there, albeit with a long way to go. He is also now 0/7,0 places with cheekpieces on. But, he has placed twice at the track over fences. 5s was probably fair, if he were 7s/8s+ I would have been tempted to have a nibble maybe but he doesn’t like winning too often and given he was 2 points shorter than the selection I was happy to leave him. His run two starts ago here, despite being out of the weights – albeit the claim helped- also was a bit underwhelming, with the fav here today a fair way in front of him. He feels the right price. Rosquero won a race LTO where all the fences one side were omitted- I dont know what to make of that but in any case he is 11 and is being asked to do something new – ie stay a trip like this. They won’t hang around here and his stamina may ebb -it may not but enough questions I think provided all the fences are jumped! Sharivarry (WON 10/1>8/1) has a line of blue on oddschecker which caught the eye – I believe he has been running well in points – and sometimes an in form horse there can come to a crappy chase and just hose up. BUT, he is/was 0/24,2 places under rules before his latest point spell, so has enough to prove for me. I would not fall of my seat if he won though, given that more interesting recent profile.
For one reason or another I can’t really have the rest. They all have the odd question now and I was happy to leave well alone. But, we are playing at a level where nothing ever totally surprises so I won’t be sat here scratching my head post race if something else goes in.
PACE/race set-up – Apache Pilot may/will try and take them along. Brother Scott also likes to be up there albeit they may ride him to try and get the trip – or they are playing about with him and are plotting a gamle – gunning him out in front, fading and a resultant drop in mark. Who knows. But, it shouldn’t be run at a crawl. Hopefully they both light each other up a bit. The selection likes to track the pace and if good enough on the day shouldn’t have an excuse in terms of how it plays out. Tony Kelly is decent and provided he keeps close enough tabs on AP, I won’t be using that as an excuse.
3.30 Hex: Seventeen Black (12/1<) UP
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
5.30 Hexham – Born Of A Tuesday -16/1 -UP this price just caught the eye for this ‘could be anything’ type on handicap hurdle debut – including not being very good! The trainer is 2/4,3 places with handicap debutants in the last year – 1/2 at the track – he doesn’t have many but appears to do ok when he does. You would expect this one to come on for his last run, the first for the stable,and in what is a poor race on paper – with them all having something to prove, 16s looked a decent poke. I like to have something else on my side, rather than just one ‘way in’ these days, and the other factor is the trainer form – 3/15 last 30 days, and he does well enough here with his handicappers. 0/7,4 places with his handicap hurdlers here last 730 days. As I said this is also an uncompetitive race. The market may well guide and if money does come, we could have some fun with this one.
7.15 Weth – Moccasin – 12/1 (BV/PP) – UP This one caught the eye using the Geegeez Gold (click here for £5 two week trial- everyone should give it a go! ) racecards and the instant expert tab – a lot of these have plenty to prove in certain race conditions and a few a above their last winning mark etc. This one is 6lb below is last winning mark on turf, which was off 66 – that was only two turf runs ago and he went up to 72 after that! Remarkable what a spell on the AW pottering about and a lack-luster turf run LTO will do for your mark, eh?! – now, he could just be out of form but it is interesting they return here, where he is a CD winner. Indeed in turf handicaps he is 1/1 at track, 2/9,3p with jockey and importantly 2/7 with the visor. This looks like the must have headgear for him and it returns – that switch could make all the difference. He also looks very ground specific – hating ‘extremes’ – he is 0/8,0 places on good to firm, 0/8, 2 places on soft/heavy – against 2/12,3 places (all flat turf wins) on good-good/soft. Finally, he has plenty of pace on paper on here. He is a hold up horse and he is drawn low so he could need plenty of luck. If he runs up to his best/last winning form, then he goes very very close here. Happy to take a stab at 12s.
8.50 Weth – Midnight Warrior – 33/1 – UP (close 4th, typical,exciting run for most part) well I have deliberated this one for some time – mainly as with this ‘revised approach’ to this section (+20 points since modification, 2/6) I want a few things to come together before putting one up – but then I just couldn’t get away from the fact that he is 33/1! This is use of the instant expert tab again on geegeez – no other stats ways in, and the trainer isn’t exactly in form (but not too many runners,hard to tell if he is just out of form) and neither is the horse. But – 5 runs ago he came 4th, beaten just under 3l, at 33/1 – and here he is 5lb lower when taking account of all claims. He also didn’t go into that race in much form. Now, these are his conditions. He is a C6 animal (3/17,6p – 0/13,1 p above this) and it looks like he needs 1m6f these days. (2/6,2p). He is also a decent ground horse- all wins on good/good to firm. A few in here have questions over liking for the ground and whether they have the stamina. He drops back into C6 here, over a longer trip than LTO. It was 1m4f and C5 LTO and maybe he was taken off his feet a bit. Or, he just isn’t firing. But, over 1m6f, on good or better, C6 he is 1,1,4. Worth am EW stab I think, with 4 places to aim at.
This section has always been a bit ‘in test’ but I think I have an approach that is worth giving a go for the time being. As always, how you engage with it is up to you. It needs to be profitable and given odds I am targeting it will be a bumpy ride. This section is different from ‘Tips’ because the process I have gone through for those above, evidenced in the write ups etc, is what I would do for every horse in a race, if ‘tipping’ something. But, unlike before, I have had more of a glance at the opposition. So, we shall see how we get on.
That is all for today. Post complete.
Anything you like the look of today? As always, your thoughts, tips and reasoning is welcome…